Red Sox Player Values

[Orange Juiced]

Every player in the Sox' system possesses certain value. Here's how I see them (not every single player in the system will be mentioned, for obvious reasons), taking into account performance, age, position value, and contract.

 

1. Mookie Betts. 22 years old. .811 ops, 116 ops+, 5.6 bWAR. Great speed, outstanding defense at all three OF positions, and if needed, could easily go back to his original position at 2b. If he was a free agent right now he'd make $25 million a year. He's making the league minimum and won't be arbitration eligible until 2018, and won't touch free agency until 2021.

 

2. Xander Bogaerts. 22 years old. .785 ops, 111 ops+, 4.7 bWAR, #1 in the AL in batting among qualified SS. Playing outstanding defense at a premier position. If he was a free agent he'd make $20 million at least as well. He's making the league minimum and won't be arbitration eligible until 2017, and won't be a free agent until 2020. One less year of control compared to Mookie brings his value down just a smidge.

 

3. Eduardo Rodriguez. 22 years old. Left-handed starting pitcher that has three plus pitches, including a 96 mph fastball that he locates well. 10-6, 3.85 era, 1.29 whip. Last 7 starts: 2.08 era, 1.29 whip. Just in his first year, won't be arbitration eligible until 2018, and won't touch free agency until 2021.

 

4. Blake Swihart. 23 years old. Hitting .269 and playing excellent defense. Rushed to the majors because of injuries to the big league roster, he's adjusted very well. Terrific athlete. Projects to be a potential all-star catcher. Won't be arbitration eligible until 2018, free agency not until 2021.

 

5. Yoan Moncada. 20 years old. Currently in single A Greenville. .817 ops there. True five-tool player. Stole 49 bases against just 3 caught stealing, in just 81 games played. Would have been the consensus #1 pick in the amateur draft last year had he been in the draft pool. Projects to be an all-star caliber player for years. A true stud prospect of the highest order.

 

6. Andrew Benintendi. 21 years old. Top pick of the Sox this past amateur draft. First year in the minors, at two levels, put up a composite line of .313/.416/.556/.972. Plays a premier position (CF). Has all the tools to be a truly great player.

 

7. Dustin Pedroia. 31 years old. 116 ops+ this year. Injured, however, playing just 89 games. Reasonable contract for his ability. Reasonable, but not great. Would fetch quite a bit back in return in a trade.

 

8. Henry Owens. 22 years old. Has acquitted himself very nicely in his first real stint in the majors. 3.84 era, 7.1 k/9, exhibits real swing-and-miss stuff.

 

9. Rafael Devers. 18 years old. Just in single A Greenville, but has displayed real power potential. Big-time prospect.

 

10. David Ortiz. 39 years old. Can only play DH, so his value is limited. But the big guy can still rake. 36 homers, 104 rbi, .898 ops, 137 ops+. 2.8 bWAR, so his contract is pretty much right in line with that, so no excess value there. But if you need a big-time bat, Ortiz can still get it done. Probably more valuable to the Red Sox than to other teams, however.

 

11. Christian Vazquez. 25 years old. Coming off a major injury. Young. Incredible defensively behind the plate. Neutralizes the other team's running game.

 

12. Manuel Margot. 20 years old. .745 ops at double A Portland. Whiz defensively, improving bat. High level prospect.

 

13. Brock Holt. 27 years old. Made the AL All star team this year. Can play every single position on the field, and well. .729 ops, 2.8 bWAR player. Arbitration eligible in 2017, and free agent eligible in 2020.

 

14. Wade Miley. 28 years old. Dependable. Nearly 200 innings pitched again. 3.80 fip means he's pitched better than his 4.39 era would indicate. Solid. Reliable. Consistent. Durable. Left-handed. Not a star, but a middle of the rotation guy that gives you a ton of innings. Very reasonable contract.

 

15. Jackie Bradley Jr. 25 years old. Electric defensively. Unsure what to make of him as a hitter. Was excellent in the minors, but struggled mightily (historically so) in the majors. Then had a 5-week stretch where he was Barry Bonds, and has since come back to earth. Still, on the year, his numbers are: .254/.341/.517/.858, 127 ops+. Best defensive OF in baseball perhaps. If he is a .250 hitter with 15 hr power, with his defense he is incredibly valuable. If he's really more of a .200 hitter, he's still worth being in the majors, but only as a defensive replacement (and a great one at that). The problem is, nobody really knows what he's going to be.

 

16. Rusney Castillo. 27 years old. Here on potential alone. Contract could be pretty nice if Castillo pans out. Not so nice if he doesn't.

 

17. Travis Shaw. 25 years old. Has done a very nice job in Boston this year. .280/.342/.510/.852, with 12 homers in 59 games. Plays a decent 1b and can also play 3b. So at worst he's proven himself to be a useful major league corner infield backup, and could end up better than that. Might end up being a 20 hr, 80 rbi, .330 on base kind of guy, which isn't incredible, but if those are his numbers, making league minimum, that's a valuable player, as it gives you reasonable production at such a low cost, that you could spend the money elsewhere.

 

18. Clay Buchholz. Still just 30 years old. Was having a terrific season until he got hurt (again). Jekyll and Hyde kind of guy. Could give you a 2.30 era, or a 5.30 era. Not durable, but his talent is tantalizing. And his contract is very nice, with team options at reasonable money.

 

19. Joe Kelly. 27 years old. Struggled early, but came on late in the year, putting up a 2.35 era in his last 8 starts. Electric stuff. If he can harness it, he's dynamite. If not, he gets hammered. But the potential is there.

 

20. Koji Uehara. 40 years old. Ended the year on the DL. But still, even at his age, he was terrific. 2.23 era, 0.92 whip, 10.5 k/9. His age is the big factor here, obviously, but he is still an outstanding relief pitcher, with championship experience. Ice in his veins. Would be a big help to any bullpen in baseball.

 

Other veterans:

- Hanigan

- Tazawa

- Layne

- Oganda

- Breslow

- Rutledge

- Sandoval

- Ramirez

 

Other prospects:

- Espinoza

- Travis

- Guerra

- Johnson

- Kopech

- Marrero

- Chavis

[mvp 78]

Pedroia's contract is not reasonable at this point.

[Orange Juiced]

Pedroia's contract is not reasonable at this point.

 

If he stays healthy, he's well worth that money.

 

What I love about this list is that the first four guys are not merely prospects. They are all 23 and under who have actually produced at the major league level. They aren't just kids in AA.

[mvp 78]

Younger, cost controlled players always have more value than a veteran player with similar output. I'm sure the list would be similar for most organizations.

[Orange Juiced]

Younger, cost controlled players always have more value than a veteran player with similar output. I'm sure the list would be similar for most organizations.

 

How many teams have four players on their big-league roster 23 years and younger producing like the Red Sox did this year?

[sk7326]

Pedroia's salary looks bad because it has 8 figures, but that is cheap for an above average starter. Is he more valuable to the Sox than to someone else? Yes - but that's ok. The shape of his contract makes it very hard to be an actual albatross (and it's downright cheap when you consider baseball inflation).

 

Betts has done everything a superstar would do in an age 22 sort of year. Bogaerts is not that far behind. This team is ready to contend next year - the pitching staff needs a lot of help, but the prospect tools are there to do so.

[Orange Juiced]

Pedroia's salary looks bad because it has 8 figures, but that is cheap for an above average starter. Is he more valuable to the Sox than to someone else? Yes - but that's ok. The shape of his contract makes it very hard to be an actual albatross (and it's downright cheap when you consider baseball inflation).

 

Betts has done everything a superstar would do in an age 22 sort of year. Bogaerts is not that far behind. This team is ready to contend next year - the pitching staff needs a lot of help, but the prospect tools are there to do so.

 

Betts and Bogaerts are already stars, at age 22. They are amazing.

 

As far as the pitching staff goes, since the all star break, the Sox are 16th in team ERA, at 4.14. If they were at that number all year, they'd likely be in the playoffs. Here are their starters post-ASB:

 

Hill: 3 g, 1.17 era

Porcello: 10 g, 3.64 era

Kelly: 11 g, 3.77 era

Owens: 10 g, 3.84 era

Miley: 13 g, 3.92 era

Wright: 5 g, 3.99 era

Rodriguez: 13 g, 4.04 era

 

I mean, if THAT was their starting staff all season long, doing that, they'd be running away with the division. But alas, they were miserable in the first half.

 

And the bullpen is a disaster. That's the real problem.

[sk7326]

They are bursting with prospects and guys who can start - so trading for pitching is doable. Heck, if Bradley is part of a deal - I'd have no hesitation going back in the free agent pool for Jason Heyward. (who is only 8 months older than JBJ) to fill the gap.

 

But you look at the team and you see stars up the middle - and that includes catcher (regardless of who ends up being the starter - it is obvious (once he got his legs under him) that Swihart's got tremendous ceiling there) and will be a really good player for somebody.