My Tanaka conspiracy theory

[jacksonianmarch]

I have been thinking about this for awhile without actually putting it to paper (or the web in this case), but there might actually be some smoke on this front. I am wondering if the Yankees' handling of Tanaka's elbow might actually be a conspiracy to keep Tanaka in town for the entirety of his contract. Should Tanaka have continued his dominance, his contract would end up being a steal. But his contract might actually be the major reason for the conservative management of his elbow to this point. Hear me out....

 

Tanaka signed a 7 yr $155 mil contract out of Japan prior to 2014. In that contract, he has an opt out after year 3, ie after 2016. Should Tanaka have stayed healthy for years 1-3, then I highly doubt he'd pass up the chance to opt out. As we know, that isn't the case. So, had the Yankee's surgeons operated in July, he'd be back for the push to the playoffs and back to full form for 2016, presumably his final season of the contract. Well, they took the conservative approach, one that may end up being the right answer in the end. BUT, the conservative approach when it comes to his opt out is actually a dual benefit for NY. Hear me out...

 

Scenario 1: Tanaka stays healthy for 2015 and 2016 and pitches at a high level. If he does so, the opt out is definitely an option, but with the uncertainty of his healed elbow, he might be reticent to take the opt out and leave 4 years and $88.5 mil on the table when teams will be wary of investing big money in a guy with an "unfixed" elbow

 

Scenario 2: Tanaka succumbs to TJS some time between now and the end of 2016, making the opt out moot as he'd be rehabbing from surgery. I have stated before that I think he gets TJS as some point, I think this is the likeliest of scenarios.

 

Scenario 3: He stays healthy but doesn't pitch to the level he did a year ago and doesn't use the opt out.

 

And then you take a look at the Yankees positioning for this season. Instead of filling the obvious needs we had with proven, expensive talent, we went out and got guys who need some work, but have bright futures (Gregorius, Eovaldi, German). I think the Yankees see themselves on a 2 year track here. While we are good enough to potentially make the playoffs in 2015, without significant injury luck, we aren't a true title contender (without some major trade that is). In 2 seasons, Beltran, Tex, and CC come off the books to the tune of $61.9 mil and AFraud comes off the books a year later, freeing up another $27 mil AAV. I think we are seeing what we have this season, potentially cashing in on the big time pitching next offseason and retooling the offense along the way with some soon to be freed up money

[Palodios]

Scenario 4: Tanaka hurts his elbow early in spring training, and misses all of 2015. He comes back May 2016, dominates the rest of the regular season until getting shelled in a wildcard game. Finally, he opts out and signs with the Dodgers.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is a possibility, although TJS allows the player to return in 12 months, but you usually aren't back to yourself (or improved for some) until 18 months out

[Palodios]

That's true, but I have heard the younger the player the faster recovery. We'll see.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's true, but I have heard the younger the player the faster recovery. We'll see.

 

In Nova's case, I hope you are right

[Kimmi]

While I understand the idea of avoiding surgery if at all possible, I think Tanaka is only avoiding the inevitable. IMO, he should have had the surgery last season. I'm no doctor, but I don't think he's going to make it through this season.

 

I love conspiracy theories, but I don't think there's any contract plot behind prolonging having the surgery. If the Yankees are doing this to benefit themselves at the expense of a player's health, then shame on them.

[mvp 78]

I'm 100% onboard with this conspiracy!

[Spudboy]

I have been thinking about this for awhile without actually putting it to paper (or the web in this case), but there might actually be some smoke on this front. I am wondering if the Yankees' handling of Tanaka's elbow might actually be a conspiracy to keep Tanaka in town for the entirety of his contract. Should Tanaka have continued his dominance, his contract would end up being a steal. But his contract might actually be the major reason for the conservative management of his elbow to this point. Hear me out....

 

Tanaka signed a 7 yr $155 mil contract out of Japan prior to 2014. In that contract, he has an opt out after year 3, ie after 2016. Should Tanaka have stayed healthy for years 1-3, then I highly doubt he'd pass up the chance to opt out. As we know, that isn't the case. So, had the Yankee's surgeons operated in July, he'd be back for the push to the playoffs and back to full form for 2016, presumably his final season of the contract. Well, they took the conservative approach, one that may end up being the right answer in the end. BUT, the conservative approach when it comes to his opt out is actually a dual benefit for NY. Hear me out...

 

Scenario 1: Tanaka stays healthy for 2015 and 2016 and pitches at a high level. If he does so, the opt out is definitely an option, but with the uncertainty of his healed elbow, he might be reticent to take the opt out and leave 4 years and $88.5 mil on the table when teams will be wary of investing big money in a guy with an "unfixed" elbow

 

Scenario 2: Tanaka succumbs to TJS some time between now and the end of 2016, making the opt out moot as he'd be rehabbing from surgery. I have stated before that I think he gets TJS as some point, I think this is the likeliest of scenarios.

 

Scenario 3: He stays healthy but doesn't pitch to the level he did a year ago and doesn't use the opt out.

 

And then you take a look at the Yankees positioning for this season. Instead of filling the obvious needs we had with proven, expensive talent, we went out and got guys who need some work, but have bright futures (Gregorius, Eovaldi, German). I think the Yankees see themselves on a 2 year track here. While we are good enough to potentially make the playoffs in 2015, without significant injury luck, we aren't a true title contender (without some major trade that is). In 2 seasons, Beltran, Tex, and CC come off the books to the tune of $61.9 mil and AFraud comes off the books a year later, freeing up another $27 mil AAV. I think we are seeing what we have this season, potentially cashing in on the big time pitching next offseason and retooling the offense along the way with some soon to be freed up money

 

I get crucified when I say similar opinions about the Sox.

 

I like that you mention this.

[Behindenemylines]

The old saying that you can never have enough pitching is the one stand by I like. To depend on one pitcher so much is problematic. More and more pitchers are falling to TJS. To put all of your eggs in one basket with a big contract on a single pitcher is a big risk.