Sandoval or Headley?

[Elktonnick]

I didn't bring up king Felix to make a comparison. Felix is a Cy Young pitcher. I brought him up as context for iwakuma's accomplishments. They pitch for the same team and iwakuma has been very successful pitching for that team. I brought up the winning percentage because Seattle has not been a big offensive powerhouse, yet iwakuma has put up an impressive w-L record to go along with his other impressive stats. These were not lucky wins. But okay, you are of a school that puts no value on W-L. His other numbers are very very good. We are not going to get this caliber of pitcher for Cespedes.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cepedes for Iwakuma deal possibly with others thrown in to even out the mix.

[Orange Juiced]

I didn't bring up king Felix to make a comparison.

 

It appeared you did. Or else, why mention Felix?

 

Felix is a Cy Young pitcher. I brought him up as context for iwakuma's accomplishments. They pitch for the same team and iwakuma has been very successful pitching for that team. I brought up the winning percentage because Seattle has not been a big offensive powerhouse, yet iwakuma has put up an impressive w-L record to go along with his other impressive stats. These were not lucky wins. But okay, you are of a school that puts no value on W-L.

 

Nobody in baseball puts much value in W-L record anymore, 700. Certainly not the Seattle or Boston executives who would be discussing the trade.

 

His other numbers are very very good. We are not going to get this caliber of pitcher for Cespedes.

 

He is a good pitcher for sure. Which is why the Sox should pursue him. But he's 33. In the last year of his contract. And they desperately need OF power, which Cespedes gives them.

 

Cespedes + a prospect or two nets Iwakuma, quite likely.

[a700hitter]

It appeared you did. Or else, why mention Felix?

 

 

 

Nobody in baseball puts much value in W-L record anymore, 700. Certainly not the Seattle or Boston executives who would be discussing the trade.

 

 

 

He is a good pitcher for sure. Which is why the Sox should pursue him. But he's 33. In the last year of his contract. And they desperately need OF power, which Cespedes gives them.

 

Cespedes + a prospect or two nets Iwakuma, quite likely.

like I said, I mentioned Felix for some context as he is on the same staff. If I am telling you what I meant, but if that isn't good enough for you, it's not a discussion. If you are going to tell me what I mean, there isn't much point for a back and forth.

[a700hitter]

 

Cespedes + a prospect or two nets Iwakuma, quite likely.

Cespedes + XB or Betts gets you a number 2.

[Orange Juiced]

like I said, I mentioned Felix for some context as he is on the same staff. If I am telling you what I meant, but if that isn't good enough for you, it's not a discussion. If you are going to tell me what I mean, there isn't much point for a back and forth.

 

I was just telling you how it appeared. I accept your explanation.

[sk7326]

I don't see Cespedes bringing back much of a return, nor do I see Victorino bringing back much. If they want to land a significant pitcher, Xander and Betts are the two biggest chips. After the acquisitions, either XB or Betts will have his path blocked. If Han Ram plays SS, XB will be traded. If HanRam will be playing LF, there would be no room for Betts. He has a weak arm and can't play RF.

 

Right now the planning with Betts is most likely thinking of him in a Zobrist or (if you are old like me) Tony Phillips. The position can be figured out later because he is a good enough athlete (with mature enough beisbol skills) to do a lot of things. The arm is not ideal for RF but the range is (at least for Fenway).

 

I know it is fun to talk about Ramirez being signed to play SS but that is far fetched at best - this is not the 2007 model of Ramirez, and given his recent durability issues, moving off of SS was going to be a natural thing for him to volunteer.r

[sk7326]

Cespedes + XB or Betts gets you a number 2.

 

Cespedes + XB gets you a James Shields level pitcher? 2 years of David Price cost the Tigers less.

[a700hitter]

 

I know it is fun to talk about Ramirez being signed to play SS but that is far fetched at best - this is not the 2007 model of Ramirez, and given his recent durability issues, moving off of SS was going to be a natural thing for him to volunteer.r

it has nothing to do with fun. I just can't think of any other case where a team signed an All Star player for 4 years and $88 million to play a position that they never played in the big leagues moving him from the infield to the outfield. That would be a first in my experience.

[Orange Juiced]

Cespedes + XB or Betts gets you a number 2.

 

Cespedes + X or Betts gets you a #1. I don't know if you really appreciate the value that Mookie Betts has in baseball right now. He alone would fetch a TON. In his minor league years plus his short stint in the majors, he projects to become at least a 6 WAR player in his mid-20s.

 

Here are the MLB pitchers who put up a 6+ WAR last year:

 

Kershaw - 7.5

Kluber - 7.4

Hernandez - 6.8

Hamels - 6.6

Sale - 6.6

Cueto - 6.4

Wainwright - 6.1

Scherzer - 6.0

 

Betts, a 22-year old, cost-controlled (read: making league minimum until 2021), versatile player who was, in just 52 games, worth 2.1 WAR last year, and who put up insanely good numbers in the minor leagues, is *already* worth about $13-14 million a year. I wouldn't trade him straight up for Hamels or Wainwright at all. And neither would Boston. Throw in Cespedes, and the Sox will get back more than a #1 (not named Felix or Kershaw).

[Palodios]

Cespedes + XB or Betts gets you a number 2.

 

A couple years ago, that was the case, but the trade value of quality hitters are going up, and so is the value of top prospects. David Price didn't get the haul everyone expected, and neither did Lester or Lackey.

 

I mentioned this earlier, but Cespedes could get anywhere from 60-100 million in free agency, and a #2 pitcher is getting 60-100 million in free agency. I see no reason why this doesn't show similarity in value.

[Orange Juiced]

it has nothing to do with fun. I just can't think of any other case where a team signed an All Star player for 4 years and $88 million to play a position that they never played in the big leagues moving him from the infield to the outfield. That would be a first in my experience.

 

Hanley is not a good fielding SS anymore. They aren't likely to put him there. In fact, the Sox' interest in Hanley really only arose after Hanley contacted them telling them he'd be willing to play 3b or LF. That should tell you something about what they're thinking.

 

It may be a first in your experience, but I would encourage you to begin wrapping your head around it, because that is likely to be the plan here.

[Orange Juiced]

A couple years ago, that was the case, but the trade value of quality hitters are going up, and so is the value of top prospects. David Price didn't get the haul everyone expected, and neither did Lester or Lackey.

 

I mentioned this earlier, but Cespedes could get anywhere from 60-100 million in free agency, and a #2 pitcher is getting 60-100 million in free agency. I see no reason why this doesn't show similarity in value.

 

Especially if the #2 only has one year left on his contract, like Iwakuma or Latos.

[Palodios]

If anything, the Red Sox might have to throw in a mid level prospect to make up for the qualifying offer, but no one at a Betts/Bogaerts level. We're talking a Lavarnway/Britton type prospect at best.

[a700hitter]

Cespedes + XB gets you a James Shields level pitcher? 2 years of David Price cost the Tigers less.

i think you are underestimating a 25 year old Drew Smyly.

[seabeachfred]

Cespedes bought 2 months of Lester. With one year left on his contract, and the prohibition from offering him a QO, he will not buy a full season of a #2 pitcher. Maybe he could fetch Leaks, but none of the others.

 

Leaks huh? He would really make us go, wouldn't he? He nothing but a second rater who will help us spring a leak, or are we talking about a vegetable. If we have to trade for Leaks we might as well get some of the dumpster trash I've mentioned previously like McCarthy or Hummel. Leaks or Leak or Leeks is not the answer.

[a700hitter]

Hanley is not a good fielding SS anymore. They aren't likely to put him there. In fact, the Sox' interest in Hanley really only arose after Hanley contacted them telling them he'd be willing to play 3b or LF. That should tell you something about what they're thinking.

 

It may be a first in your experience, but I would encourage you to begin wrapping your head around it, because that is likely to be the plan here.

I' ll wrap my head around it after they get rid of Victorino, Cespedes, and Craig. Until they get rid of those guys, Betts is in the minors or traded.

[a700hitter]

If anything, the Red Sox might have to throw in a mid level prospect to make up for the qualifying offer, but no one at a Betts/Bogaerts level. We're talking a Lavarnway/Britton type prospect at best.

 

Then I hope they pull the trigger. I would love for them to get iwakuma or Latos for so are baggage, but I am not seeing it.

Edited November 25, 2014 by a700hitter

[Orange Juiced]

I' ll wrap my head around it after they get rid of Victorino, Cespedes, and Craig. Until they get rid of those guys, Betts is in the minors or traded.

 

Minors maybe. Not traded. He's worth a *fortune*. Unless they're getting back a Strasburg or Felix or Kershaw, he's going nowhere. He sure as heck isn't going to be included in a package along with Cespedes for a #2 starter, 700. If any team asked for that the Sox would hang up before the other exec spoke the last word of the question.

 

BTW, I hope you don't really think that Craig would be the kind of guy to keep Betts from playing every day in Boston. If faced with that choice, Boston would DFA Craig so fast it would make your head spin.

[a700hitter]

Minors maybe. Not traded. He's worth a *fortune*. Unless they're getting back a Strasburg or Felix or Kershaw, he's going nowhere. He sure as heck isn't going to be included in a package along with Cespedes for a #2 starter, 700. If any team asked for that the Sox would hang up before the other exec spoke the last word of the question.

 

BTW, I hope you don't really think that Craig would be the kind of guy to keep Betts from playing every day in Boston. If faced with that choice, Boston would DFA Craig so fast it would make your head spin.

betts for kershaw or Felix Hernandez? I think you are inflating his value.

[sk7326]

it has nothing to do with fun. I just can't think of any other case where a team signed an All Star player for 4 years and $88 million to play a position that they never played in the big leagues moving him from the infield to the outfield. That would be a first in my experience.

 

That is more an aspect of his FA timing than anything else. Moving from the infield to the outfield is rare but not unprecedented. (Biggio, Yount to name two) Moves to preserve value - whether an incumbent team comes up with the idea or a FA suitor ultimately makes little difference. It's the same risk-reward assessment.

[a700hitter]

That is more an aspect of his FA timing than anything else. Moving from the infield to the outfield is rare but not unprecedented. (Biggio, Yount to name two) Moves to preserve value - whether an incumbent team comes up with the idea or a FA suitor ultimately makes little difference. It's the same risk-reward assessment.

i have seen it rarely within an organization, but never when a player has been acquired as a FA. Whether Hanley plays the infield or the outfield will determine whether Betts or XB is without a position. I don't see room for both.

[Orange Juiced]

betts for kershaw or Felix Hernandez? I think you are inflating his value.

 

I think those are the two guys that execs would not deal straight up for Betts.

 

Again, we are talking about a 22-year old, with unbelievable minor league numbers, who can play multiple positions well, who in just 52 games already has put up more than 2 WAR, and will be cost controlled til 2021.

 

He is worth a TON. If you're the Sox' GM and all you trade Cespedes (a legit 25-30 homer bat) and Betts for a #2 starter, you should be fired on the spot.

Edited November 25, 2014 by Orange Juiced

[Orange Juiced]

i have seen it rarely within an organization, but never when a player has been acquired as a FA. Whether Hanley plays the infield or the outfield will determine whether Betts or XB is without a position. I don't see room for both.

 

C Vazquez

1b Napoli

2b Pedroia

3b Sandoval

SS Bogaerts

LF Ramirez

CF Castillo

RF Betts (or perhaps Castillo with Betts in CF)

DH Ortiz

 

That's how it will shake out.

[a700hitter]

I think those are the two guys that execs would not deal straight up for Betts.

 

Again, we are talking about a 22-year old, with unbelievable minor league numbers, who can play multiple positions well, who in just 52 games already has put up more than 2 WAR, and will be cost controlled til 2021.

 

He is worth a TON. If you're the Sox' GM and all you can get for Cespedes (a legit 24-30 homer bat) and Betts is a #2 starter, you should be fired on the spot.

maybe you get Hamels if we add a lower level prospect.

[a700hitter]

C Vazquez

1b Napoli

2b Pedroia

3b Sandoval

SS Bogaerts

LF Ramirez

CF Castillo

RF Betts (or perhaps Castillo with Betts in CF)

DH Ortiz

 

That's how it will shake out.

Victorino, Cespedes, Craig and Holt all traded?

[Orange Juiced]

maybe you get Hamels if we add a lower level prospect.

 

Zero chance the Sox would do that trade. If they did, I would publicly eat a huge pile of crow and pay homage to you.

 

No,way they deal a power bat, a prospect, and Mookie Betts for Hamels and his humongous contract.

[a700hitter]

I think those are the two guys that execs would not deal straight up for Betts.

 

Again, we are talking about a 22-year old, with unbelievable minor league numbers, who can play multiple positions well, who in just 52 games already has put up more than 2 WAR, and will be cost controlled til 2021.

 

He is worth a TON. If you're the Sox' GM and all you trade Cespedes (a legit 25-30 homer bat) and Betts for a #2 starter, you should be fired on the spot.

 

Do you think that you get a # 1 for 1 year of Cespedes and 22 year old Betts?

[Orange Juiced]

Victorino, Cespedes, Craig and Holt all traded?

 

Victorino, Holt, and Craig to the bench. Cespedes traded.

 

Another option is Victorino starts, but Betts plays every day, just at a different position, giving 2b, 3b, LF, CF, and RF a regular day off.

Edited November 25, 2014 by Orange Juiced

[Orange Juiced]

Do you think that you get a # 1 for 1 year of Cespedes and 22 year old Betts?

 

Yes. Not Felix or Kershaw, but yes.

[a700hitter]

Zero chance the Sox would do that trade. If they did, I would publicly eat a huge pile of crow and pay homage to you.

 

No,way they deal a power bat, a prospect, and Mookie Betts for Hamels and his humongous contract.

We will just have to wait and see, but it has been reported that they have been in negotiations with the Phils for Hamel's.