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Posted
I understand. You're unhappy about a rebuilding year. I am too. But there is a reason why this team has fielded very good teams. The ownership is committed to both being competitive, and being competitive in the future. Sometimes things don't work out, and we get years like this one. Sometimes it does, and we get years like last year.

 

But here's the thing. This organization does make decisions that do not work. However, most of their decisions are not long term decisions. They get to mulligan a bad team for a good team the following year. We're unhappy with seeing no playoff baseball for a year, but ownership works on making sure that the next year is a different year, instead of the same old s***. Look at how the Phillies handled the deadline last year -- stuck with the same aging pricey contracts, and nothing but mediocrity in the future.

 

The Red Sox have options. They'll sign a significant starter, trade for a significant starter, pull in a few bullpen pieces, and piece together a real offense next year. They're too stacked with talent and money to be mediocre for long.

 

Sounds real good Pal but I have serious doubts. A significant starter? You had better mean an ACE because we had one and refused to pay him. We also need a solid No. 2 like Lackey and we don't have him anymore either. Face it, the front office really effed it this season. They committed one major blunder after another, not only trading Lester because they were too damn cheap to pay him what he was worth, but their insistence that Bradley was the real thing, which he most certainly is NOT, and let's not mention the biggest screw up of them all--signing Drew. Many of us here, maybe you too, knew from the moment he was signed that this was a debacle in the making and the front office still refuses to admit they made a colossal mistake in that signing. The biggest joke of them all, though, is Larry Luuchintzy's pearl that Clay Pukehholz is our "ace in waiting". Where the hell are their brains?

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Posted
We did win 3 WS titles in 10 years, right? Just checking.

 

I am not saying that they make perfect moves, but to discount their success as the aberration is unfair. There have been some stinking years in between the successful ones. Yes. There have been some really great years in there too. Some on here want to act like the Red Sox won despite the FO, not because of it. I don't know which it is, as I don't have knowledge of what goes on in the FO inner workings. If you do, please enlighten us. Please offer some proof why Henry/Werner/Lucchino are only responsible for the bad years.

 

Good points IO. Yes, if we criticize the front office's stupidity we should also give them credit for three WS Titles in ten seasons. Today that is a very terrific record given how tough it is to even get to the WS with all the barriers and roadblocks to get through that minefield of playoffs. As 700 said, though, very few of us believed we would go to the WS this season but we wanted a decent team put on the field. No matter how you slice it this front office has made a cottage industry of making major blunders....Drew? A disastrous signing. Bradley? How stubborn can they be. The guy cannot hit, cannot run well enough to steal bases and he can't bunt and he has little power. And IMHO he will never hit because his swing and approach is a disaster. Also, not signing Lester was the biggest blunder of them all. No, Orange Man, what we wanted was a representative team that could play good baseball, not the joke we have on the field this season.

Posted
Sounds real good Pal but I have serious doubts. A significant starter? You had better mean an ACE because we had one and refused to pay him. We also need a solid No. 2 like Lackey and we don't have him anymore either.

 

I keep posting the list all over the place, but there are a ton of quality pitchers hitting free agency in 2016, and most of them are on teams that can't afford them. Cueto, Latos, Leake, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Gallardo, Medlen, Fister to name a few. It might be one of the best years in a while to trade for pitching. That being said, they need to go out and get one of them and then one of Lester/Scherzer/Shields.

Posted
I wasn't whining. I was pointing out that this ownership group seems to know how to build a team that will win. I think it's a little premature for anyone to say that Henry/Werner/Lucchino screwed everything up since we are a bad team this year. Is there anyone here who doesn't think that the ownership will field a better team next spring than what started this spring? I just happen to think that they have been pretty successful at what they are doing. Does it always work? Obviously not, but on the whole, it's been working pretty good.
But they did screw things up this year. Their prior success doesn't change that. Will they get this on the right track and what is the timeline are the 2 open questions. Based on the moves at the deadline, it looks like they are building to improve in 2015. It also looks like they have a lot of work to do rebuilding the 2015 staff.
Posted
Getting back to the rotation, I think the sox are going to do everything in their power to see which pitchers sink and which ones swim. The rule with pitching prospects is typically 1/3 get hurt, 1/3 flame out and 1/3 reach their potential. And we're talking prospects who dominate the upper levels. They'll see who has it maybe through next yr before they deal some off for veteran parts. I highly doubt they make a major pitching signing after what Henry said. Unless he's willing to be a hypocrite or was being distractionary in his comments
Posted
When you are trying to rebuild a team through the farm system patience is required. You have to give some time to see if they are going to be good or not and a couple weeks may not be enough time, thats just true. And yes maybe you ruin a whole season but hopefully it works out in the end.
I agree with this completely. However, I don't think they expected that the season would blow up so quickly and so dramatically. The problems were evident from opening day. They decided to be patient. That's understand able to a point, but they failed to make adjustments on the fly to help address the needs of the team. The one move they made (Drew) was too late and ill-advised. It accelerated the team's demise. If nothing else, they have given Bradley a good long look -- long enough to know that he is a long way from being proficient enough offensively to hold down the CF job. They have seen enough from Bogaerts to know that he is not going to be the next Pujols. The only question left is whether he can handle SS defensively. If so, he can probably do enough offensively to stick. If they had not acquired Drew, they would already know the answer.
Posted
Getting back to the rotation, I think the sox are going to do everything in their power to see which pitchers sink and which ones swim. The rule with pitching prospects is typically 1/3 get hurt, 1/3 flame out and 1/3 reach their potential. And we're talking prospects who dominate the upper levels. They'll see who has it maybe through next yr before they deal some off for veteran parts. I highly doubt they make a major pitching signing after what Henry said. Unless he's willing to be a hypocrite or was being distractionary in his comments

 

I'll ask you the same question I asked Spud.

 

The Sox have around $70mm to spend in the offseason. I think the thing we can all agree on is that the FO isn't going to go into 2015 with a light payroll after coming in last (or 4th) in 2014.

 

You're set at C (Vazquez), 1B (Nap, Craig), 2B (Pedey, Betts, Holt), SS (Bogaerts, Marrero, Holt), 3B (Bogaerts, WMB, Cecchini, Holt), LF (Craig, Betts, Cespedes, Holt), CF (Bradley, Betts, Holt), RF (Vic, Cespedes, Betts, Holt), and DH (Ortiz).

 

You've got 2 of the 5 SP slots filled with Buch & Kelley, and lets just say they'll go in with 1 rookie (RDLR).

 

So where are they going to spend that $70mm? They have no slots open. They're not going to spend $70mm on a backup catcher and a couple middle of the road SP. And they're 100% not going to go into 2015 with a payroll around $130-140mm after coming in last.

 

They can't go into 2015 with a low payroll AND no ace or they will get crucified. And they don't have anywhere else to allocate that money, and its $70mm. Hell they could go spend $25mm on Lester, $25mm on Scherzer, and $5mm on Ross, and still have $15mm set aside for some bullpen arms.

Posted
I keep posting the list all over the place, but there are a ton of quality pitchers hitting free agency in 2016, and most of them are on teams that can't afford them. Cueto, Latos, Leake, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Gallardo, Medlen, Fister to name a few. It might be one of the best years in a while to trade for pitching. That being said, they need to go out and get one of them and then one of Lester/Scherzer/Shields.

 

I read what you keep posting but Cueto, Latos, Leake Zimmerman, Sam, Gall, Medlen, Fister---NONE OF THEM ARE AS GOOD AS JON LESTER....NONE OF THEM!!!!!!!! As for Shields, he isn't either, not even close, though he could be better than Lackey, but once again you may have missed an important piece of information. Shields is going to cost money and chintzy Prune Face has shown he will no longer pay top dollar for pitching. And that means you can forget about Scherzer as well as Shields. Lester is gone for good so what we have is a pile of s*** for our rotation now and not much better if we sign one of those journeymen listed above. None are as good as Lester and we need someone, maybe two pitchers as good or better than Jon for next season or we're s*** on a roll. And please my friend, don't parade that list to me again. None of them are as good as the ace we traded away because Prune Face didn't want to pay him. None of them, and I mean none of them, have ever been in the heart of a division playoff or league playoff or WS. Lester has and he has performed magnificently. The others are just so much excess trash when it comes to standing tall when the big games come around.

Posted
I agree with this completely. However, I don't think they expected that the season would blow up so quickly and so dramatically. The problems were evident from opening day. They decided to be patient. That's understand able to a point, but they failed to make adjustments on the fly to help address the needs of the team. The one move they made (Drew) was too late and ill-advised. It accelerated the team's demise. If nothing else, they have given Bradley a good long look -- long enough to know that he is a long way from being proficient enough offensively to hold down the CF job. They have seen enough from Bogaerts to know that he is not going to be the next Pujols. The only question left is whether he can handle SS defensively. If so, he can probably do enough offensively to stick. If they had not acquired Drew, they would already know the answer.

 

First of all, I think this year is what last year was anticipated to be in many fans minds. Last year was supposed to be the bridge year, instead it turned out to be this year. Fans have been dreading it for so long but now its here.

 

I think it is way too premature to make claims about Bradley and Bogaerts. The first half of the year Bogaerts looked like a true star in the making, then s*** happened and he looked more pedestrian. You said that if he had played SS this year they would already know what they have. That seems like a stretch given that he's 21 years old. Most 21 year olds are at high-A. It was bad to bring Drew back, but no matter how Bogaerts did this year he would have to be seen as a work in progress.

 

Bradley's bat has been concerning, but his defense is absolutely stellar and it makes him better than replacement level no matter how he hits. He'd be a solid backup if he doesn't turn into a great offensive piece.

 

Just to put his performance in context, according to fangraphs WAR, Bradley has been the 12th most valuable 24 year old in baseball this year. Leaders are not surprising (Stanton, rendon, Heyward, Rizzo). Bradley, at 1.6 WAR, has been roughly as valuable as Starlin Castro (2.0), Aldrelton Simmons (1.6), Brett Lawrie (1.5) and George Springer (1.3). If someone said the Sox could have one of those players wouldn't you take it? He's the 4th most valuable defensive player in baseball, regardless of age etc., That's not something to sneeze at.

 

One of the things that might limit his playing time is the existence of another farm system product, Mookie Betts, who is putting up consistent .900 OPS numbers in the minors from positions where that is very rare. If he's "merely" an .830 OPS guy in the majors he'll be really valuable. His potential is greater than that. He's doing it at AAA playing against guys who, on average, are 6 years older.

 

These things do take time.

Posted
...

Just to put his performance in context, according to fangraphs WAR, Bradley has been the 12th most valuable 24 year old in baseball this year. Leaders are not surprising (Stanton, rendon, Heyward, Rizzo). Bradley, at 1.6 WAR, has been roughly as valuable as Starlin Castro (2.0), Aldrelton Simmons (1.6), Brett Lawrie (1.5) and George Springer (1.3). If someone said the Sox could have one of those players wouldn't you take it? He's the 4th most valuable defensive player in baseball, regardless of age etc., That's not something to sneeze at...

 

I looked at a few of those guys on baseball-reference and Springer has a WAR of 1.8 and Castro has a 1.0. Those are huge differences from fangraphs and shows one of many reasons not to treat WAR as gospel. Not saying you specifically are doing that, just talking in general, because I hate how WAR is overused now. I wonder if it had a less cool sounding acronym, if it would be as popular.

Posted
Lester is gone for good.

 

We don't know that. Just because we low-balled him and then Lester cut off all talks till the end of the season doesn't mean he won't be back. Do I think it's likely? No. I don't think it's an impossibility either.

Posted
First of all, I think this year is what last year was anticipated to be in many fans minds. Last year was supposed to be the bridge year, instead it turned out to be this year. Fans have been dreading it for so long but now its here.

 

I think it is way too premature to make claims about Bradley and Bogaerts. The first half of the year Bogaerts looked like a true star in the making, then s*** happened and he looked more pedestrian. You said that if he had played SS this year they would already know what they have. That seems like a stretch given that he's 21 years old. Most 21 year olds are at high-A. It was bad to bring Drew back, but no matter how Bogaerts did this year he would have to be seen as a work in progress.

 

Bradley's bat has been concerning, but his defense is absolutely stellar and it makes him better than replacement level no matter how he hits. He'd be a solid backup if he doesn't turn into a great offensive piece.

 

Just to put his performance in context, according to fangraphs WAR, Bradley has been the 12th most valuable 24 year old in baseball this year. Leaders are not surprising (Stanton, rendon, Heyward, Rizzo). Bradley, at 1.6 WAR, has been roughly as valuable as Starlin Castro (2.0), Aldrelton Simmons (1.6), Brett Lawrie (1.5) and George Springer (1.3). If someone said the Sox could have one of those players wouldn't you take it? He's the 4th most valuable defensive player in baseball, regardless of age etc., That's not something to sneeze at.

 

One of the things that might limit his playing time is the existence of another farm system product, Mookie Betts, who is putting up consistent .900 OPS numbers in the minors from positions where that is very rare. If he's "merely" an .830 OPS guy in the majors he'll be really valuable. His potential is greater than that. He's doing it at AAA playing against guys who, on average, are 6 years older.

 

These things do take time.

 

So many of us have missed you and your common sense posts.

Posted
I read what you keep posting but Cueto, Latos, Leake Zimmerman, Sam, Gall, Medlen, Fister---NONE OF THEM ARE AS GOOD AS JON LESTER....NONE OF THEM!!!!!!!!

 

Cueto is in the same class as Lester, maybe Zimmerman too. The rest of the guys are #2/3s. If Lester/Scherzer are on the team next year, getting any of those guys to replace Lackey actually improves the rotation. The question will be whether the team is too cheap to get premium talent or not. Based on what they've said, I can't see them throw out the same rotation we're seeing right now to get creamed.

Posted
Cueto is in the same class as Lester, maybe Zimmerman too. The rest of the guys are #2/3s. If Lester/Scherzer are on the team next year, getting any of those guys to replace Lackey actually improves the rotation. The question will be whether the team is too cheap to get premium talent or not. Based on what they've said, I can't see them throw out the same rotation we're seeing right now to get creamed.

 

What's crazy is that the Sox have the ability to afford BOTH Lester AND Scherzer. Can you imagine that? (don't try its not gonna happen). But the Sox are going to go into 2015 with one of the best rotations in baseball, count on that.

Posted (edited)
Cueto is in the same class as Lester, maybe Zimmerman too. The rest of the guys are #2/3s. If Lester/Scherzer are on the team next year, getting any of those guys to replace Lackey actually improves the rotation. The question will be whether the team is too cheap to get premium talent or not. Based on what they've said, I can't see them throw out the same rotation we're seeing right now to get creamed.

 

I don't think that you will be disappointed. The brass knows that they need to acquire legit number 1 and 2 pitchers either via free agency or by trade. If they fail in doing so the results will be horribly ugly and it will him them where it hurts. Public opinion and revenues.

Edited by Spudboy
Posted
What's crazy is that the Sox have the ability to afford BOTH Lester AND Scherzer. Can you imagine that? (don't try its not gonna happen). But the Sox are going to go into 2015 with one of the best rotations in baseball, count on that.

 

I agree. It's not as if the idea of the Sox going out and acquiring two or more top tier players in the off season is without precedent. The idea that the Sox F.O. is cheap is way over blown. They have just become more selective in their spending.

Posted
I agree. It's not as if the idea of the Sox going out and acquiring two or more top tier players in the off season is without precedent. The idea that the Sox F.O. is cheap is way over blown. They have just become more selective in their spending.

 

Exactly. And between the $80mm (per Tim Britton of the Providence Journal) in cash to spend, and the enormous amount of prospects, this is the richest this team has been going into an offseason in a long, long time. Especially if they're able to unload a portion of Victorino's contract, now that they have Nava, Craig, Cespedes, Bradley, and Betts.

Posted
Exactly. And between the $80mm (per Tim Britton of the Providence Journal) in cash to spend, and the enormous amount of prospects, this is the richest this team has been going into an offseason in a long, long time. Especially if they're able to unload a portion of Victorino's contract, now that they have Nava, Craig, Cespedes, Bradley, and Betts.
Victorino is one of those guys that is just a winner. The team is better off with him in the lineup than all of the other guys that you mentioned.
Posted
Victorino is one of those guys that is just a winner. The team is better off with him in the lineup than all of the other guys that you mentioned.

 

Not sure I agree. He's getting older, he's injury prone, you can't count on him as an everyday player anymore.

Posted
Not sure I agree. He's getting older, he's injury prone, you can't count on him as an everyday player anymore.

If he can't get healthy, we will not be able to move him. If he gets healthy, I'd prefer to keep him.

Posted
Exactly. And between the $80mm (per Tim Britton of the Providence Journal) in cash to spend, and the enormous amount of prospects, this is the richest this team has been going into an offseason in a long, long time. Especially if they're able to unload a portion of Victorino's contract, now that they have Nava, Craig, Cespedes, Bradley, and Betts.

 

No way they have $80 million left. Maybe not even $70, but if not, it's probably close. You can assume Koji is getting $15 million. Tazawa and Nava would get a few million if they want to keep them. Still leaves enough to pay two aces, and they can still cut some salary with a trade. I'm thinking Napoli may get traded, and Craig plays 1B, or maybe Craig gets traded. They will spend that money and acquire at least 2 SP, one or two of which will be an ace type.

Posted
No way they have $80 million left. Maybe not even $70, but if not, it's probably close. You can assume Koji is getting $15 million. Tazawa and Nava would get a few million if they want to keep them. Still leaves enough to pay two aces, and they can still cut some salary with a trade. I'm thinking Napoli may get traded, and Craig plays 1B, or maybe Craig gets traded. They will spend that money and acquire at least 2 SP, one or two of which will be an ace type.
Neither Napoli or Craig built much trade value this season.
Posted
No way they have $80 million left. Maybe not even $70, but if not, it's probably close. You can assume Koji is getting $15 million. Tazawa and Nava would get a few million if they want to keep them. Still leaves enough to pay two aces, and they can still cut some salary with a trade. I'm thinking Napoli may get traded, and Craig plays 1B, or maybe Craig gets traded. They will spend that money and acquire at least 2 SP, one or two of which will be an ace type.

 

Koji is a FA, so he's going to be part of the $80mm. Nava and Taz are both arbitration eligible, and their projected salaries are included.

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140803-a-breakdown-of-how-the-red-sox-stand-after-july-31.ece

 

 

The Red Sox payroll for 2015, as it stands now:

Mike Napoli, $16 million

David Ortiz, $16 million

Shane Victorino, $13 million

Dustin Pedroia, $12.625 million

Clay Buchholz, $12.25 million ($7.49 AAV)

Yoenis Cespedes, $10.5 million ($9 million AAV)

Allen Craig, $5.5 million ($6.2 million AAV)

Edward Mujica, $4.75 million

Junichi Tazawa, $2 million*

Daniel Nava, $1 million*

Rubby De La Rosa, $750,000*

Mookie Betts, $550,000

Xander Bogaerts, $550,000**

Jackie Bradley Jr., $550,000**

Brock Holt, $550,000**

Heath Hembree, $550,000**

Joe Kelly, $550,000**

Will Middlebrooks, $550,000**

Christian Vazquez, $550,000**

Allen Webster, $550,000**

Brandon Workman, $550,000**

*arbitration-eligible (estimate)

**pre-arbitration (estimate)

Total: approximately $100 million

Posted (edited)
Koji is a FA, so he's going to be part of the $80mm. Nava and Taz are both arbitration eligible, and their projected salaries are included.

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140803-a-breakdown-of-how-the-red-sox-stand-after-july-31.ece

 

 

The Red Sox payroll for 2015, as it stands now:

Mike Napoli, $16 million

David Ortiz, $16 million

Shane Victorino, $13 million

Dustin Pedroia, $12.625 million

Clay Buchholz, $12.25 million ($7.49 AAV)

Yoenis Cespedes, $10.5 million ($9 million AAV)

Allen Craig, $5.5 million ($6.2 million AAV)

Edward Mujica, $4.75 million

Junichi Tazawa, $2 million*

Daniel Nava, $1 million*

Rubby De La Rosa, $750,000*

Mookie Betts, $550,000

Xander Bogaerts, $550,000**

Jackie Bradley Jr., $550,000**

Brock Holt, $550,000**

Heath Hembree, $550,000**

Joe Kelly, $550,000**

Will Middlebrooks, $550,000**

Christian Vazquez, $550,000**

Allen Webster, $550,000**

Brandon Workman, $550,000**

*arbitration-eligible (estimate)

**pre-arbitration (estimate)

Total: approximately $100 million

 

Luxury tax threshold is $189 million so that leaves $89 mil. Salary for luxury tax purposes also includes stuff like health benefits, bonuses, etc. which is usually around $10 million. Also you have to include everybody on the 40-man roster so subtract about 500k for all those, which would be $9-10 million, so the $70 million looks about right.

 

This article is from 2012, but it's interesting and I assume still applicable.http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/understanding-payroll-and-luxury-tax.html

 

Edit: the others on the 40-man roster won't necessarily make 500k, so that 9-10 million number is too high, but the $10 million in benefits and stuff looks understated. So maybe in the lower $70 millions left.

Edited by jd98
Posted

One thing my mind keeps coming back to: we may all acknowledge that if the Sox want to compete in the AL they will need two very good pitchers who they don't currently have. In fact, even if they did the "absurd" and signed Lester and Scherzer, would they necessarily have a better rotation than, say, Detroit (Verlander, Price, Sanchez), or Seattle (Hernandez, Iwakuma)? I don't think its clear that they would. It would be comparable, but not a guarantee of anything.

 

Given that, even if we acknowledge that they need a FA pitcher or two, everyone should likewise agree that it still matters greatly how their young pitching prospects do. Is an Owens or Ranaudo or Barnes the answer? In a sense, yes, because even if someone else is the known answer, they will inevitably need a few of these guys to be better than just a decent pitcher. They need a Sonny Gray or Adam Wainwright from their system or they will be just another overpriced and underperforming big market team.

Posted (edited)
One thing my mind keeps coming back to: we may all acknowledge that if the Sox want to compete in the AL they will need two very good pitchers who they don't currently have. In fact, even if they did the "absurd" and signed Lester and Scherzer, would they necessarily have a better rotation than, say, Detroit (Verlander, Price, Sanchez), or Seattle (Hernandez, Iwakuma)? I don't think its clear that they would. It would be comparable, but not a guarantee of anything.

 

Given that, even if we acknowledge that they need a FA pitcher or two, everyone should likewise agree that it still matters greatly how their young pitching prospects do. Is an Owens or Ranaudo or Barnes the answer? In a sense, yes, because even if someone else is the known answer, they will inevitably need a few of these guys to be better than just a decent pitcher. They need a Sonny Gray or Adam Wainwright from their system or they will be just another overpriced and underperforming big market team.

Wow E1! What a bummer! Do you want people to feel bad if we sign Lester and Scherzer? It seems like that would buy them a lot of time to grow someone within the organization who could eventually help anchor the staff. Edited by a700hitter
Posted
What's crazy is that the Sox have the ability to afford BOTH Lester AND Scherzer. Can you imagine that? (don't try its not gonna happen). But the Sox are going to go into 2015 with one of the best rotations in baseball, count on that.

 

BC has said it is the number one priority this winter. This weekend proves that starting pitching is key to success. The two games that they lost is because of the starting pitching.

Posted

Just read this on the ESPN Boston site. OYE!

 

* Despite a tough outing on Saturday against the Yankees, Allen Webster will remain in the Red Sox rotation and is scheduled to make his next start against the Angels on Friday in Anaheim. The right-hander allowed four runs on two hits, with six walks and one strikeout in 2 2/3 innings of work.

 

After the outing, Webster said he lost his release point and couldn’t regain it before the damage was done.

 

“He has a tendency to lead with his body a little bit more and it kind of spiraled in a way yesterday with him,” Farrell said. “As that inning was unfolding, he started leaning more and more with his body and his arm had the inability to catch up consistently to get his release point out front.”

 

While Webster issued four consecutive walks in the top of the third inning, Farrell and pitching coach Juan Nieves were both discussing what the 24-year-old pitcher should work on during his next bullpen session. Still, Farrell believes Webster isn’t too far off.

 

“The one thing we have to be clear with Allen is he’s not as far away as he might seem coming out of that outing,” Farrell said. “Sure, the line score doesn’t lie, but he’s a small adjustment away from being in the strike zone more consistently.”

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