2013 Yankee Hot Stove Thread

[User Name]

Reds would be retarded to give up Bailey for Gardner.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree that a one for one swap seems unlikely, but to the previous point, why are we cherry-picking when WAR is reliable and when it's not based on the argument? Gardner had a single down yr in UZR/150 which placed him as average. One thing we know about that stat is that it can fluctuate and you need to look at a few seasons to see whether someone is a good defender or no. He stole over 20 bases again. His power improved, and his slash line was still good for a speed guy. He's a little things kind of ballplayer. Do I think that's worth a 200IP starter who's rounding into top of the rotation form? Not one for one, but you cannot downplay Gardy's value and degrade the best stat that encompasses all stats because he isn't a flashy guy

[Palodios]

I agree that a one for one swap seems unlikely, but to the previous point, why are we cherry-picking when WAR is reliable and when it's not based on the argument?

 

Who was cherry-picking? He didn't have a single down year in UZR/150... he is mediocre in center field. Maybe he's a gold glove LF, but certainly not CF.

 

The real problem is that he is a speed guy who is losing speed. He's hitting his 30s, coming off a season ending in an oblique injury, lowest career SB totals and highest CS%. He also loses home runs going to any other park.

 

Gardner definitely still has value, but the Reds are in win-now mode, and I see absolutely no reason why they would make that trade. Also, Homer Bailey definitely gets a QO and arbitration pick, but Gardner may very well not.

[seabeachfred]

Who was cherry-picking? He didn't have a single down year in UZR/150... he is mediocre in center field. Maybe he's a gold glove LF, but certainly not CF.

 

The real problem is that he is a speed guy who is losing speed. He's hitting his 30s, coming off a season ending in an oblique injury, lowest career SB totals and highest CS%. He also loses home runs going to any other park.

 

Gardner definitely still has value, but the Reds are in win-now mode, and I see absolutely no reason why they would make that trade. Also, Homer Bailey definitely gets a QO and arbitration pick, but Gardner may very well not.

 

It depends how badly the Reds want Gardner my friend. I keep hearing they are talking up Billy Hamilton (I think that's his name) big time but aside from really blinding speed there is some concern with his ability to hit Major League pitching. If he can I see no reason why the Reds would even make that trade unless they are not confident with one of their corner outfielders and that seems a little far fetched. Bailey is a pretty good No. 3 or 4 starter and frankly I can't see the Reds giving him up if they are confident in Hamilton's ability. Apparently from all the rumors they're not.

[User Name]

Bailey's numbers last year were a hell of a lot more #2 than #3.

[Palodios]

It depends how badly the Reds want Gardner my friend. I keep hearing they are talking up Billy Hamilton (I think that's his name) big time but aside from really blinding speed there is some concern with his ability to hit Major League pitching. If he can I see no reason why the Reds would even make that trade unless they are not confident with one of their corner outfielders and that seems a little far fetched. Bailey is a pretty good No. 3 or 4 starter and frankly I can't see the Reds giving him up if they are confident in Hamilton's ability. Apparently from all the rumors they're not.

 

Hamilton was the top prospect in their organization last year, and ranked #20 in the majors by BA. He is their Jackie Bradley. I don't think they would trade away an extremely valuable starter to replace him without giving him a real chance to make it in the majors. It isn't like he failed in the majors -- .900 OPS in 13 games all at the age of 22.

[jacksonianmarch]

It could be the .256/.308/.343 slash line the guy had in 504ABs in AAA that have them a little concerned. Thing is, Bailey is a luxury for them, one they will not afford come 2015. They have Cueto, Leake, Latos and the hot shot rookie Cingrani. The thought is that dealing Bailey will free up enough cash to re-sign Arroyo for 2 yrs. Gardner would be the stopgap in CF to give some more seasoning to Hamilton. If Bailey has another year like he did in 2013, he will command upwards of $20 mil per yr for 5-7 years. They cannot afford that. If they like what they see in Gardner, they could resign him for Bourne money

[User Name]

You know what the Reds could also do? Trade Bailey for a better player than Gardner.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm sure they could try. But who is going to give up a king's ransom for a HR prone starter on a 1 yr contract?

[User Name]

Basically everyone is HR prone at Great American. Also, who said anything about a "king's ransom". It just needs to be a better player than Gardner.

[Spitball]

It could be the .256/.308/.343 slash line the guy had in 504ABs in AAA that have them a little concerned.

 

That is what has them concerned, but they are not desperate. Their long range plan was to put Choo in center and let Hamilton develop at AAA. Hamilton struggled most of the first half and has some worried. However, the Reds are fully prepared to go into the 2014 season with Hamilton.

 

I think those who assume Gardner for Bailey is possible are also assuming the Reds really, really want Gardner. They don't. They made the Brandon Phillips for Gardner offer because they want to get out from Phillips's bad contract.

 

Thing is, Bailey is a luxury for them, one they will not afford come 2015. They have Cueto, Leake, Latos and the hot shot rookie Cingrani.

 

He really isn't a luxury. Cueto has been injured since the 2012 playoffs, and Latos missed his scheduled start in the Wild Card Playoff game do to an arm problems which required surgery. Cingrani was drafted as a relief pitcher and is unproven. He had some success filling in last season but did it with basically just a fastball.

 

The thought is that dealing Bailey will free up enough cash to re-sign Arroyo for 2 yrs.

 

Bailey will likely make about $9 million this coming season. I don't think it frees up money for Arroyo for two years. Walt Jocketty has very recently made comments on this topic.

 

Gardner would be the stopgap in CF to give some more seasoning to Hamilton. If Bailey has another year like he did in 2013, he will command upwards of $20 mil per yr for 5-7 years. They cannot afford that. If they like what they see in Gardner, they could resign him for Bourne money

 

The Reds would be crazy to trade Bailey for these reasons. It would make much more sense for them to start the season with Heisey in center and give Hamilton a month in triple-A. As it was in 2013, there plan to contend in 2014 is based on strong pitching.

 

The Reds would be trading one year of Bailey and the first round compensatory pick for one year of Gardner and no compensatory pick. That would be crazy.

[pinstripezac]

Would You Trade Gardner For Homer Bailey?

 

 

Cincinatti is the team with the clearest need for both a center fielder and leadoff hitter, especially after losing Shin-Soo Choo to the Rangers last week. The Reds have already established interest in trading for Brett Gardner, after news broke that the Yankees turned down a Gardner for Brandon Phillips swap. After a year of struggle in Triple-A for top prospect Billy Hamilton, the Reds still maintain a need for a speedy glove and leadoff bat. With one year left on his contract, and Hamilton likely ready to step in as a full time player in 2015, Gardner fits the Reds’ needs perfectly

 

 

 

.........................................The question remains whether or not trading Gardner for Bailey makes sense from the Yankees’ perspective. Though Bailey likely has a bit more value than Gardner, starting pitchers are still easy to find on the open market

 

 

4 the full read

 

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/01/07/would-you-trade-gardner-for-homer-bailey/

[Palodios]

"Starting pitchers are still easy to find on the open market"

 

Clearly, this article is written by a Yankee fan.

[User Name]

Oh yeah, 3.5 ERA, 200+ IP pitchers with near 9.00 K/9's and decent BB/9 numbers are a dime a dozen! Why would the Yankees ever do that trade!

[pinstripezac]

"Starting pitchers are still easy to find on the open market"

 

Clearly, this article is written by a Yankee fan.

 

 

don't U think he meant compared to finding a FA CF lead off hitter

 

and don't U think that has merit

 

 

as far as it being a fair trade I have NP with it

 

thing is

 

it's a lot easier to like the johnny wannabee signing

 

when U know U have gardner to back up CF for gms missed

[User Name]

No, it doesn't have merit, because starting pitchers with Bailey's numbers, projected salary, age and health dossier are almost impossible to find on the open market. Starting pitching i always easy to find in the open market, but quality starting pitching isn't, making his point incorrect. If the Yankees wanted to fill their rotation spots with sub-optimal or league average arms, they would have done so by now.

[User Name]

And of course you'd have no problem with the trade, since it'd be a victory of epic proportions for the Yankees.

[Spitball]

Would You Trade Gardner For Homer Bailey?

 

 

Cincinatti is the team with the clearest need for both a center fielder and leadoff hitter, especially after losing Shin-Soo Choo to the Rangers last week. The Reds have already established interest in trading for Brett Gardner, after news broke that the Yankees turned down a Gardner for Brandon Phillips swap. After a year of struggle in Triple-A for top prospect Billy Hamilton, the Reds still maintain a need for a speedy glove and leadoff bat. With one year left on his contract, and Hamilton likely ready to step in as a full time player in 2015, Gardner fits the Reds’ needs perfectly

 

 

 

.........................................The question remains whether or not trading Gardner for Bailey makes sense from the Yankees’ perspective. Though Bailey likely has a bit more value than Gardner, starting pitchers are still easy to find on the open market

 

 

4 the full read

 

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/01/07/would-you-trade-gardner-for-homer-bailey/

 

Gardner fits the Reds needs only if, and only if, they will take on Phillips's bad contract. They will go with Hamilton, and that is a definite unless they can move Phillips. Bailey might go for their biggest need, a power hitter like Batista who can protect Joey Votto, but he will not be traded for the likes of Gardner. It will absolutely not happen.

[Spitball]

Remember, the Reds would not extend Gardner a QO for many reasons, but they would definitely extend Bailey. That alone should tell you the rumors are all Yankee generated.

[rjortiz]

Remember, the Reds would not extend Gardner a QO for many reasons, but they would definitely extend Bailey. That alone should tell you the rumors are all Yankee generated.

 

Why wouldn't they extend Gardner a qualifying offer? He's a pretty good player. He'll have offers that are substantially larger than the QO the Yankees or Reds would tender him.

[Spitball]

Why wouldn't they extend Gardner a qualifying offer? He's a pretty good player. He'll have offers that are substantially larger than the QO the Yankees or Reds would tender him.

 

There is noooo way the Reds would extend Gardner a qualifying offer with Hamilton waiting in the wings. Besides, why would they extend a thirty-something guy that offer? Even if Hamilton fails, the Reds would not pay a guy with Gardner's skill set $15 million a year. Jay Bruce will make only $10 million in 2015. Is Gardner worth $5 million more than Bruce? The answer is a definite noooo.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Spitball

[rjortiz]

And of course you'd have no problem with the trade, since it'd be a victory of epic proportions for the Yankees.

 

I don't think it's that lopsided. I think people are underestimating Brett Gardner. He's a elite defensive outfielder, a great baserunner, and has good on-base skills. His WAR over his last three healthy seasons are 6.0, 4.9, and 3.2. He'd be a big upgrade if the Reds think that Hamilton isn't a great defender, and whether his sub .300 OBP would hurt his baserunning value. They could also use him in LF over Heisey/Ludwick. They'd also free up some money, so they could make a run at a free agent starter.

 

Bailey had a breakout year in 2013, but he doesn't have an amazing track record. He's had a problem with home runs in his career and moving to the AL East won't help. Also, Yankee Stadium isn't kind to flyball pitchers. His HR/9 and K/9 numbers could easily regress to career levels, which would make him more of a mid-rotation starter. He'd still be a huge upgrade over Phelps/Pineda, but consider that the Yankees would be replacing Gardner with a 38 year old Alfonso Soriano. That would mitigate the upgrade the Yankees would be getting in their rotation.

 

They'd also have to extend Bailey at over $100 million. Between him, Ellsbury, McCann, Sabathia, Teixeira, Beltran, and Rodriguez they have about $140 million locked into 7 players in 2015. Could they afford to pursue Tanaka with that much payroll already committed? I think it might take them out of the running, unless they are going to match the Dodgers in payroll. Also, would a team with that core be any good? I seriously doubt it. I also think that short-term Tanaka and Gardner is a better duo than Soriano and Bailey. That being said, I don't think this trade makes sense for either team.

Edited January 8, 2014 by rjortiz

[rjortiz]

There is noooo way the Reds would extend Gardner a qualifying offer with Hamilton waiting in the wings. Besides, why would they extend a thirty-something guy that offer? Even if Hamilton fails, the Reds would not pay a guy with Gardner's skill set $15 million a year. Jay Bruce will make only $10 million in 2015. Is Gardner worth $5 million more than Bruce? The answer is a definite noooo.

 

I'd make the offer, because I think it is unlikely that Gardner would accept it. If Michael Bourn can get 4/48 in 2012, Brett Gardner should be able to exceed that. If he does accept, they can always play him in LF in 2015. Bruce and Hamilton can play RF/CF. There isn't a downside to making the offer.

[rjortiz]

Gardner fits the Reds needs only if, and only if, they will take on Phillips's bad contract. They will go with Hamilton, and that is a definite unless they can move Phillips. Bailey might go for their biggest need, a power hitter like Batista who can protect Joey Votto, but he will not be traded for the likes of Gardner. It will absolutely not happen.

 

Phillips only has 4/50 left on his contract. It's not that awful.

 

If the Reds could trade Bailey for Bautista they would have already done it. That would be a huge win for the Reds.

[User Name]

I don't think it's that lopsided. I think people are underestimating Brett Gardner. He's a elite defensive outfielder, a great baserunner, and has good on-base skills. His WAR over his last three healthy seasons are 6.0, 4.9, and 3.2. He'd be a big upgrade if the Reds think that Hamilton isn't a great defender, and whether his sub .300 OBP would hurt his baserunning value. They could also use him in LF over Heisey/Ludwick. They'd also free up some money, so they could make a run at a free agent starter.

 

Bailey had a breakout year in 2013, but he doesn't have an amazing track record. He's had a problem with home runs in his career and moving to the AL East won't help. Also, Yankee Stadium isn't kind to flyball pitchers. His HR/9 and K/9 numbers could easily regress to career levels, which would make him more of a mid-rotation starter. He'd still be a huge upgrade over Phelps/Pineda, but consider that the Yankees would be replacing Gardner with a 38 year old Alfonso Soriano. That would mitigate the upgrade the Yankees would be getting in their rotation.

 

They'd also have to extend Bailey at over $100 million. Between him, Ellsbury, McCann, Sabathia, Teixeira, Beltran, and Rodriguez they have about $140 million locked into 7 players in 2015. Could they afford to pursue Tanaka with that much payroll already committed? I think it might take them out of the running, unless they are going to match the Dodgers in payroll. Also, would a team with that core be any good? I seriously doubt it. I also think that short-term Tanaka and Gardner is a better duo than Soriano and Bailey. That being said, I don't think this trade makes sense for either team.

 

No. You are grossly overvaluing Gardner. Bailey has improved his peripherals for five straight years and has eclipsed the 200 IP mark two years in a row. The homer problem is ridiculously overplayed considering he plays in a stadium that's almost as bad as NYS at yielding the home run. Gardner is a very good player, but one whose baserunning ability has diminished considerably and whose below-average power is boosted by NYS. Let's be real here.

[rjortiz]

No. You are grossly overvaluing Gardner. Bailey has improved his peripherals for five straight years and has eclipsed the 200 IP mark two years in a row. The homer problem is ridiculously overplayed considering he plays in a stadium that's almost as bad as NYS at yielding the home run. Gardner is a very good player, but one whose baserunning ability has diminished considerably and whose below-average power is boosted by NYS. Let's be real here.

 

I think Gardner is a 3-4 WAR player in LF next year. Bailey probably provides around that total at SP. I think the Yankees would win the trade, because they land a starter with upside for a player with only one year of control left, but I don't think it would make them that much better in 2014. That's why I wouldn't call it completely lopsided. The Reds would definitely be selling low though.

[User Name]

Fair enough. Although that's more of a knock on the horrible roster construction practices the Yankees have applied the last couple of years than anything else.

[Spitball]

Why wouldn't they extend Gardner a qualifying offer? He's a pretty good player. He'll have offers that are substantially larger than the QO the Yankees or Reds would tender him.

 

You sound like a Yankee fan's perspective. You make several assumptions and they are all leaning towards making a case for Gardner being worth Bailey for the Reds. You assume Hamilton is a poor fielder (he is a very good fielder) and you said Hamilton has a below .300 OBP (not true) and you mention Bailey having his break out year in 20013 (he actually has been good for at least three years and has two no-hitters) and you say he is homerun prone(He ranked third among the Reds' starters).

 

The Reds would never take the risk of making a qualifying offer to Gardner. Saddled with losing a draft choice, he might take it, and they'd be screwed. The Reds can't afford to operate that way. They couldn't gamble on an offer to Arroyo, and they wouldn't Gardner.

 

The Reds are better off keeping Bailey for one year if the return is one year of Gardner. Replacing Arroyo's and Bailey's innings would be difficult enough, but they also have to be prepared to replace Latos (elbow), Cueto (lat), and Cingrani (back).

 

The Reds will probably go with Hamilton in center. He is their top prospect and they are willing to go through the growing pains. They went a few years with Drew Stubbs in center and leading off and won their division with him there in 2010.

 

Basically, your suggestion is that the Reds can be better by getting rid of Bailey and replacing Choo with Gardner. It doesn't make sense. If the Yankees are willing to take Phillips and his contract, that would work for the Reds.

[seabeachfred]

Good point rj. With all this talk about a Gardner-Bailey trade, the fact is the Reds are at a loss either way unless they can get a RH big bopper to protect Joey Votto, otherwise he will lucky to see three good pitches a game. Of course, I plead total ignorance as to where the Reds would get such a guy but to me Bailey traded for just Gardner makes little sense on the face of it unless the Reds have enough pitching to absorb Bailey's loss. Do they? I keep hearing they don't have any more money to spend and that was the lame excuse when the Reds went South after their WS Title in 1990. They have always seemed to be a tight fisted outfit even when they were the Big Red Machine.

[Spitball]

Good point rj. With all this talk about a Gardner-Bailey trade, the fact is the Reds are at a loss either way unless they can get a RH big bopper to protect Joey Votto, otherwise he will lucky to see three good pitches a game. Of course, I plead total ignorance as to where the Reds would get such a guy but to me Bailey traded for just Gardner makes little sense on the face of it unless the Reds have enough pitching to absorb Bailey's loss. Do they? I keep hearing they don't have any more money to spend and that was the lame excuse when the Reds went South after their WS Title in 1990. They have always seemed to be a tight fisted outfit even when they were the Big Red Machine.

 

You are correct, Fred. The Reds' second biggest offensive plus last season, after Votto, was their leadoff hitter Choo. What the Reds needed last year, and again this year, is a big right handed bat to insure Votto sees some pitches to hit. If Choo couldn't spark that offense then Gardner certainly can't.

 

Batista for Phillips (plus a prospect or two) makes sense. The salaries balance. The Reds need a right handed bopper to protect Votto, and the Blue Jays need a lot more production out of second base. I realize the Blue Jays probably don't want to trade Batista, but this trade would be a lot more along the lines of what the Reds really need.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Spitball