2014 Roster Projections

[Dojji]

Giancarlo's best year so far is a pale shadow of Manny's peak years. He's powerful and a good hitter, but Stanton can't even pretend to match Manny's ability to dominate an at bat.

 

Knowing about obsessions from the inside, as everyone here knows I do, I know one when I see one.

 

SFF, you're not actually arguing with anyone here. you're inventing reasons for yourself to believe in what you're saying.

 

I recognize that Stanton is a unique talent, but everyone can come with a price tag that is too high for their value. We SHOULD have learned that lesson with Adgon. We don't need superstar production in the corner outfield positions to win the World Series, that's what this year taught us. How much does Stanton really give us over the WAR presented by Victorino or the Gomes/Nava platoon? Not as much as the offensibe numbers suggest.

 

Until you learn how to stack value up properly against both opportunity cost (the players getting replaced) and price tag, you'll keep making the same mistakes.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Dojji

[BornToRun]

Closing in on FA?? He hasn't even entered arbitration until this year. He's not a FA until 2017.

 

They say they're not trading him of course. They would lose every bit of leverage they have if they don't.

 

Again, he's not a FA until 2017. That's 4 seasons away, at which point the Red Sox have $16.125mm obligated right now.

 

His injury concerns have lead him to a 135 wRC+ and a 156 wRC+ over the past two years.

 

Simply put, he's the best RH power hitter not named Miguel Cabrera.

 

You put him in Fenway and you get Manny Ramirez production.

 

I was under the impression that he's only got 2 years of control left. My bad.

 

Still, he has lower body issues and when the time does come for him to cash in as a free agent, the contract is going to be astronomical.

 

Look at the money that's been given to Pujols and Fielder and look at what Cano is looking for. Stanton is getting A-Rod money and I want no part of that. If he had a cleaner health history and a deal with Miami wouldn't certainly cost us Xander/a huge chunk of our young pitching depth, I'd be more willing to try and trade for him.

 

As it stands now, though:

 

He'd cost us a s*** ton of prospects to land. Xander and a few of our top pitching prospects I'd say.

 

The price we'd have to pay him when he hits FA would be absurd and in that situation, we'd either pay out the ass and hand out one of the huge contracts we'd decided to stay away from our we'd have shredded our farm system for just 3 years.

 

Once more, I'm not convinced of his ability to stay healthy.

[mvp 78]

"But if he comes to Fenway, his numbers will go up!"

 

In reality, this projection rarely works out.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I was under the impression that he's only got 2 years of control left. My bad.

 

Still, he has lower body issues and when the time does come for him to cash in as a free agent, the contract is going to be astronomical.

 

Look at the money that's been given to Pujols and Fielder and look at what Cano is looking for. Stanton is getting A-Rod money and I want no part of that. If he had a cleaner health history and a deal with Miami wouldn't certainly cost us Xander/a huge chunk of our young pitching depth, I'd be more willing to try and trade for him.

 

As it stands now, though:

 

He'd cost us a s*** ton of prospects to land. Xander and a few of our top pitching prospects I'd say.

 

The price we'd have to pay him when he hits FA would be absurd and in that situation, we'd either pay out the ass and hand out one of the huge contracts we'd decided to stay away from our we'd have shredded our farm system for just 3 years.

 

Once more, I'm not convinced of his ability to stay healthy.

 

The whole premise of trading for him is predicated by not giving up Xander.

 

You would at the very least have 4 years of cost controlled production to determine if Boston suits him before extending him. Extensions after 4 years of service are extremely different than free agent signings.

 

Sticking him in LF at Fenway would take a ton of leg work off of him and would certainly benefit any health related issues.

[SoxFanForsyth]

"But if he comes to Fenway, his numbers will go up!"

 

In reality, this projection rarely works out.

 

You don't think going from Marlins Park or whatever that albatross is called to Fenway would improve his numbers?!?

[Palodios]

He's also had a history of lower body issues and is closing in on free agency. The Marlins have made it painfully clear that they are not trading him, so to get him would require Miami getting blown out of the water. Not a chance in hell that they don't insist on X.

 

We'd also only have a short period before he hits free agency at which point we'd have to pay something close to A-Rod money, I'd bet, to keep him. Why trade your farm for a couple years of a guy who you can just go after in free agency not too long from now?

 

I don't want to bring him in and run the risk of losing him to another team after we sold the farm to land him.

 

And as I said above, his injury history concerns me. He's had issues with his legs for the last couple years.

 

If Stanton is available as a free agent at the age of 27, he may very well be one of those players almost worth a 10 year deal. If the Red Sox are smart, they give him all those years, and give him an opt-out after year 5. So, at 32 at the end of his prime, he'll look at his current contract, decided it might be better for him to re-sign a bigger deal, and leave before the contract gets ugly. The Yankees did this in the past with Soriano, although on much smaller terms.

[Palodios]

"But if he comes to Fenway, his numbers will go up!"

 

In reality, this projection rarely works out.

 

It tends to be 50/50. We saw it with Cody Ross and Beltre, but not so much with Agon/Napoli.

[BornToRun]

If Stanton is available as a free agent at the age of 27, he may very well be one of those players almost worth a 10 year deal. If the Red Sox are smart, they give him all those years, and give him an opt-out after year 5. So, at 32 at the end of his prime, he'll look at his current contract, decided it might be better for him to re-sign a bigger deal, and leave before the contract gets ugly. The Yankees did this in the past with Soriano, although on much smaller terms.

 

This I could get on board with . Personally, I'm in favor of just waiting until he hits FA. He seems to want out of Miami so I doubt an extension is signed. Also, that'd give us a decent period of time to determine how he'll hold up health wise.

 

I just hate the idea of trading our farm for one guy after we've spent all of this time building up the next generation of young, home grown Red Sox stars.

 

Kick the tires, of course, but don't do anything crazy. I just don't see any deal for Stanton getting done without including our best young talent.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Giancarlo's best year so far is a pale shadow of Manny's peak years. He's powerful and a good hitter, but Stanton can't even pretend to match Manny's ability to dominate an at bat.

 

Knowing about obsessions from the inside, as everyone here knows I do, I know one when I see one.

 

SFF, you're not actually arguing with anyone here. you're inventing reasons for yourself to believe in what you're saying.

 

I recognize that Stanton is a unique talent, but everyone can come with a price tag that is too high for their value. We SHOULD have learned that lesson with Adgon. We don't need superstar production in the corner outfield positions to win the World Series, that's what this year taught us. How much does Stanton really give us over the WAR presented by Victorino or the Gomes/Nava platoon? Not as much as the offensibe numbers suggest.

 

Until you learn how to stack value up properly against both opportunity cost (the players getting replaced) and price tag, you'll keep making the same mistakes.

 

1. Stanton, age 20-23 by wRC+: 118, 141, 156, 135

ManRam, age 20-23 by wRC+: 30, 120, 145, 140

 

Did you like Manny's 2001 season with the Red Sox? .301/.405/.609, 41 HR, 125 RBI? He posted a 156 wRC+ that year. He was 56% better than the league in wOBA. Showed the same level of dominance as Stanton did at the age of 22.

 

So....yeah. Can't really say that he's not as good of a hitter when he's actually outperformed Manny thus far in his career as it relates to the league. Given, Manny probably wasn't juicing at that point, but even without the juice, Manny was a generational hitter. Stanton is the same.

 

2. Until you can quantify the actual value of each of the individual prospects future success (i.e., predict the future), you're never going to be able to stack value up properly against the price tag.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This I could get on board with . Personally, I'm in favor of just waiting until he hits FA. He seems to want out of Miami so I doubt an extension is signed. Also, that'd give us a decent period of time to determine how he'll hold up health wise.

 

I just hate the idea of trading our farm for one guy after we've spent all of this time building up the next generation of young, home grown Red Sox stars.

 

Kick the tires, of course, but don't do anything crazy. I just don't see any deal for Stanton getting done without including our best young talent.

 

You're not emptying the farm. The farm is as flush as it's been in a long, long time.

 

Even a package around Cecchini, Swihart, Barnes, Ranaudo, and Doubront leaves you with Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Owens, Ball, Vazquez, Margot (breakout candidate, seriously pay attention), Workman, Webster, Marrero.

 

You can't just hoard all of your prospects. Half of the point of loading up your farm is to make deals for proven talents.

 

Look at the Adrian Gonzalez deal. Does it suck that we don't have those prospects still? I mean, really, does it?

 

Rey Fuentes: Never broke any top 100 lists, hasn't done anything at the MLB level.

Casey Kelly: TJS before 2013, dropping on most prospect listings.

Anthony Rizzo: Shows promise but has really fizzled in the bigs so far.

 

Point being, prospects fizzle out and a lot of times you do better by trading them for a proven piece than to sit and watch them fizzle.

[mvp 78]

You don't think going from Marlins Park or whatever that albatross is called to Fenway would improve his numbers?!?

 

Penciling him in for 40 HR's seems a little presumptuous to me.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Penciling him in for 40 HR's seems a little presumptuous to me.

 

He hit 35 in 2011 and 37 in 2012.

 

If he was on the Sox, I would 100% make a bet with you that he would hit 40.

[mvp 78]

I'd take 23 year old Manny over 23 year old Andruw Jones over 23 year old Stanton.

[Palodios]

You're not emptying the farm. The farm is as flush as it's been in a long, long time.

 

Even a package around Cecchini, Swihart, Barnes, Ranaudo, and Doubront leaves you with Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Owens, Ball, Vazquez, Margot (breakout candidate, seriously pay attention), Workman, Webster, Marrero.

 

You can't just hoard all of your prospects. Half of the point of loading up your farm is to make deals for proven talents.

 

Look at the Adrian Gonzalez deal. Does it suck that we don't have those prospects still? I mean, really, does it?

 

Rey Fuentes: Never broke any top 100 lists, hasn't done anything at the MLB level.

Casey Kelly: TJS before 2013, dropping on most prospect listings.

Anthony Rizzo: Shows promise but has really fizzled in the bigs so far.

 

Point being, prospects fizzle out and a lot of times you do better by trading them for a proven piece than to sit and watch them fizzle.

 

The package for 1 year of A-gon will pale in comparison to 3 years of Stanton.

[marklmw]

If Stanton is available as a free agent at the age of 27, he may very well be one of those players almost worth a 10 year deal. If the Red Sox are smart, they give him all those years, and give him an opt-out after year 5. So, at 32 at the end of his prime, he'll look at his current contract, decided it might be better for him to re-sign a bigger deal, and leave before the contract gets ugly. The Yankees did this in the past with Soriano, although on much smaller terms.

I am not feeling that type of deal. What you are saying is that if he preforms as forecast he gets to opt-out but if he sucks then he gets paid anyway. What am I missing here?

[marklmw]

The package for 1 year of A-gon will pale in comparison to 3 years of Stanton.

 

You make a valid point ... you can add Lars Anderson and Kalish to that list. Sometimes great prospects get derailed with injuries too.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The package for 1 year of A-gon will pale in comparison to 3 years of Stanton.

 

Sure, and I'm not comparing packages. I'm talking about how prospects fizzle. Often enough that they shouldn't keep you from acquiring a superstar, particularly one that, when you put Stanton together with Bogaerts, you've got two cornerstone players that you build a dynasty around, and they are 21 and 24.

[Palodios]

I am not feeling that type of deal. What you are saying is that if he preforms as forecast he gets to opt-out but if he sucks then he gets paid anyway. What am I missing here?

 

You generally expect a player to perform well for the first half of the deal. The second half is where they fall off a cliff. You want the player for the early years, but not the late years.

[marklmw]

Stanton has high upside no doubt. Could not Florida do a Sign & Trade type of deal. Extend Stanton for 10 years @ 100M and then trade for players & prospects? He is making 500K now ... it would be hard to pass on 100M of guaranteed money especially with his recent injuries.

[marklmw]

You generally expect a player to perform well for the first half of the deal. The second half is where they fall off a cliff. You want the player for the early years, but not the late years.

So the theory behind the opt-out clause is that the player gives you his very best in those 5 years so that he can make a bigger contract over the last 5.

[marklmw]

Sure, and I'm not comparing packages. I'm talking about how prospects fizzle. Often enough that they shouldn't keep you from acquiring a superstar, particularly one that, when you put Stanton together with Bogaerts, you've got two cornerstone players that you build a dynasty around, and they are 21 and 24.

I like Stanton with Tanaka!!!! laughing

[User Name]

The mental masturbation over Stanton is an exercise in futility. The Sox won't sell the farm to get him, and the Marlins will likely not trade him anyway.

[marklmw]

LF - Stanton

CF - JBJ

RF - Vic

1B - Naps

2B - we can find someone to play 2B

SS - Bogaerts

3B - WMB

C - Lavarnway

DH - Big Papi

SP - Tanaka - had to put that in.

 

Lineup

 

Victorino

Pedoria

Stanton

Ortiz

Napoli

Bogaerts

Middlebrooks

Lavarnway

JBJ

 

Can Stanton play 1B eventually?

[User Name]

Dude, we know you want the Sox to get Tanaka. We really,really, really know.

[marklmw]

The mental masturbation over Stanton is an exercise in futility. The Sox won't sell the farm to get him, and the Marlins will likely not trade him anyway.

 

UN ... you crack me up. But you are probably right. I wish we can just focus on our real needs ... like Tanaka as a SP ... don't you agree?

[User Name]

Read the post above this one.

[sk7326]

I'd take 23 year old Manny over 23 year old Andruw Jones over 23 year old Stanton.

 

23 year old Andruw Jones obliterates the other two ... assuming the total package matters.

[User Name]

23 year old Andruw Jones obliterates the other two ... assuming the total package matters.

 

Stanton has elite power, but there are holes to his overall game.

[mvp 78]

I just hope the Sox win the offseason like the Jays did last year and the Marlins did the year before that!

[marklmw]

Dude, we know you want the Sox to get Tanaka. We really,really, really know.

 

What gives you that idea. UN - I am curious what player that you feel the Sox should go after.