2014 Roster Projections

[jung]

24/3 is close but I actually think that if the Sox can get away with it, they will pay more money to keep the contract at 2 years plus an option year. If not they will go to 3 years but probably at some number a bit more of 24/3.

 

I heard some cryptic damn thing about Drew not accepting some offer from somebody. But the gist of it appears to be that the talking heads now think Drew intends taking the QO.

[sk7326]

24/3 is close but I actually think that if the Sox can get away with it, they will pay more money to keep the contract at 2 years plus an option year. If not they will go to 3 years but probably at some number a bit more of 24/3.

 

I heard some cryptic damn thing about Drew not accepting some offer from somebody. But the gist of it appears to be that the talking heads now think Drew intends taking the QO.

 

It makes sense ... he is not going to get that AAV on the market with the pick penalty attached to it. With him under contract, it means that Boston can deal him to any team that he consents to. Considering how attractive a top flight shortstop on a 1-year deal is, there is a pretty good chance all sides will get what they want.

[Palodios]

The real value of Salty is that he is the rare case of a young and healthy catcher hitting the free agent market. Very few catchers hit the open market before 30, and almost none have caught as few games as he has. While he might not make high AAV, he could get as many as 4-5 years.

[sk7326]

It is fairly clear that McCann > Salty ... but 2-3 years of Salty > 6 years of McCann ... that is the equation i think that teams might be looking at (certainly Boston is)

[Hoplite]

Salty sucks. Sign Carlos Ruiz. He sucks less and he's cheaper.

[jung]

Ruiz is not a bad idea at all although the Sox are really still just looking for a bridge I think. It may make more sense to bridge with Salty/Ross than with Ruiz/Ross. I would think that Ruiz would make way more sense than McCann.

[sk7326]

Salty sucks. Sign Carlos Ruiz. He sucks less and he's cheaper.

 

5 years older, was awful last year against righties, suspended for amphetamines. Had a power season in 2012, but extremely out of line with his career dossier. Salty much better prob to make 100 starts ...

[Hoplite]

Defense, defense, defense. No use in re-signing a player who gives away games.

[marklmw]

I think people are vastl underestimating Salty's value on the market. Catchers that can hit are really prized unless they're defensive nightmares.

Dojji ... When you say people are you talking about Sox Management because obviously your statement would apply to them.

This is like a very high stakes game of Acie Ducie.

[marklmw]

It is fairly clear that McCann > Salty ... but 2-3 years of Salty > 6 years of McCann ... that is the equation i think that teams might be looking at (certainly Boston is)

 

This sums it up fairly well.

[jung]

One of the more interesting things I have seen the "talking heads" do in the last couple of days:

 

Took all of the existing high ticket salaries and lined them up from top to bottom. That starts of course with Aroid and his disastrous contract. They went through them one by one all the way down through $18M per year. Interestingly, the only guys you could convince yourself were worth their contracts were.......... starting pitchers.

 

That is not to say that all of the big starting pitcher contracts were "good" or reasonable contracts either but the everyday player contracts were all total ********...well on their way to being disasters if not already there.

[marklmw]

One of the more interesting things I have seen the "talking heads" do in the last couple of days:

 

Took all of the existing high ticket salaries and lined them up from top to bottom. That starts of course with Aroid and his disastrous contract. They went through them one by one all the way down through $18M per year. Interestingly, the only guys you could convince yourself were worth their contracts were.......... starting pitchers.

 

That is not to say that all of the big starting pitcher contracts were "good" or reasonable contracts either but the everyday player contracts were all total ********...well on their way to being disasters if not already there.

Very Interesting.

[marklmw]

One of the more interesting things I have seen the "talking heads" do in the last couple of days:

 

Took all of the existing high ticket salaries and lined them up from top to bottom. That starts of course with Aroid and his disastrous contract. They went through them one by one all the way down through $18M per year. Interestingly, the only guys you could convince yourself were worth their contracts were.......... starting pitchers.

 

That is not to say that all of the big starting pitcher contracts were "good" or reasonable contracts either but the everyday player contracts were all total ********...well on their way to being disasters if not already there.

 

Sounds like Tanaka is coming to Boston soon! smiling.

[User Name]

How can you infer that from jung's post?

[marklmw]

How can you infer that from jung's post?

 

UN ... where is your sense of humor? What are your predictions on our 4 FA's

[rjortiz]

I think people are vastl underestimating Salty's value on the market. Catchers that can hit are really prized unless they're defensive nightmares.

 

Sounds like Salty.

[User Name]

UN ... where is your sense of humor? What are your predictions on our 4 FA's

 

I'm probably going to be dead wrong here but: Ellsbury goes, Drew goes, Napoli stays, Salty (unfortunately) stays.

[jung]

I know this is a way outside prediction for a number of reasons but I think Drew stays and takes his QO.

 

Naps stay but on a deal, not on his QO. Ells goes and Salty also stays on some sort of deal...somewhere between 2-3 years with Salty being very favorably disposed to stay here......as in hometown discount.

[BigPapi]

I dont know if anyone has mentioned this before, but naps babip was .367 this year, which was good for seventh in the league. In recent years, his BABIP has swung up and down rapidly from season to season. In 2012, although it was a shortened season for him, he had a very similar strike out percentage to this year, yet his babip was down around 90 points, which resulted in a batting average 32 points lower.

[User Name]

Large BABIP fluctuations are not an uncommon occurrence in "True outcome" hitters like Adam Dunn, Napoli and Carlos Pena.

[BigPapi]

Large BABIP fluctuations are not an uncommon occurrence in "True outcome" hitters like Adam Dunn, Napoli and Carlos Pena.

 

Ok, good to know. Could be attributed to the more hrs in 2012, as 24 of his 80 hits were hrs in 2012 compared to 23 of his 129 in 2013. That could definitely attribute to a a low babip in 2012. Also, do you think nap is set for a downer of a season ?

Edited November 7, 2013 by BigPapi

[SoxSport]

I hear they might pay big bucks for McCann, particularly if they let Ells go. That's a good tradeoff considering they have JBJ waiting in the wings. I would be happy with Ruiz, too, who is very good defensively and game calling. Ross is too old to be catching 100+ games, but great in roles like the playoffs. McCann is tight with Ross.

 

I also think they'll re-sign Nap. They would have been more serious about Abreu if they didn't have Nap in the bag.

[User Name]

Ok, good to know. Could be attributed to the more hrs in 2012, as 24 of his 80 hits were hrs in 2012 compared to 23 of his 129 in 2013. That could definitely attribute to a a low babip in 2012. Also, do you think nap is set for a downer of a season ?

 

I doubt it. The BABIP issue is a product of a small sample of actual contact due to so many K's and walks. The baseline for his power and OBP are there, so a season similar to 2013 is a very likely possibility.

[BigPapi]

I doubt it. The BABIP issue is a product of a small sample of actual contact due to so many K's and walks. The baseline for his power and OBP are there, so a season similar to 2013 is a very likely possibility.

 

True. True. The only thing that is concerning is how low his batting average was even with his high BABIP, as people with similar BABIPs like Freddie Freeman, Mike Trout, and Joey Votto all had batting averages at least 46 points better than his.

[jung]

I did not see anything in Naps that would suggest a downturn. For one thing his confidence at 1st base has got to be sky high. He was fine around 1st base and has to be feeling good about how well he played defensively.

 

Naps has never looked like a very versatile hitter to me. His swing is his swing. On the other hand that also means he really does not screw himself up. Choking up a little is about as exciting as things get for Naps. Watching him can be frustrating at times but at the end of the day it is hard to argue with what he accomplishes. Just have to be patient with him at times.

[BigPapi]

I did not see anything in Naps that would suggest a downturn. For one thing his confidence at 1st base has got to be sky high. He was fine around 1st base and has to be feeling good about how well he played defensively.

 

Naps has never looked like a very versatile hitter to me. His swing is his swing. On the other hand that also means he really does not screw himself up. Choking up a little is about as exciting as things get for Naps. Watching him can be frustrating at times but at the end of the day it is hard to argue with what he accomplishes. Just have to be patient with him at times.

 

True. I think that his hr and double numbers may improve slightly or stay around the same, I just hope his batting average won't drop like his BABIP suggests.

[User Name]

True. True. The only thing that is concerning is how low his batting average was even with his high BABIP, as people with similar BABIPs like Freddie Freeman, Mike Trout, and Joey Votto all had batting averages at least 46 points better than his.

 

Those are all guys who: A) Have much better contact skills that Napoli, and B ) Walk just as much (or more, in Trout and Votto's case) but K significantly less.

[BigPapi]

Those are all guys who: A) Have much better contact skills that Napoli, and B ) Walk just as much (or more, in Trout and Votto's case) but K significantly less.

 

Is BABIP calculated by taking the the amounts of hits a player has, subtracting that by their hrs, and then dividing that by their number of at bats not including strikeouts or is that not right?

[User Name]

Is BABIP calculated by taking the the amounts of hits a player has, subtracting that by their hrs, and then dividing that by their number of at bats not including strikeouts or is that not right?

 

Only balls that are hit into play count for the BABIP calculation.

[seabeachfred]

I know this is a way outside prediction for a number of reasons but I think Drew stays and takes his QO.

 

Naps stay but on a deal, not on his QO. Ells goes and Salty also stays on some sort of deal...somewhere between 2-3 years with Salty being very favorably disposed to stay here......as in hometown discount.

 

Here's how I stand on the matter. We have four free agents.....Napoli, Drew, Satalamacchia and Ellsbury. I think if he lose all four of these players there will be a ripple effect that could affect our team in a very negative way. We would have to replace four players and we may not get lucky again signing types that fit in well with Boston and the remaining roster. All we need are two or three bad signings and bad actors and we start back where we were over a year ago. We need at least two of them back....Napoli for sure and one of the other two---meaning Ellsbury is gone. As for Ells, we need a backup for Bradley just in case he starts hitting as poorly as he did this year for us when brought up. Not too long ago we replaced a solid hitter in Damon for a hitting stiff in Crisp. We cannot replace a solid hitter like Ellsbury with a stiff of any kind. Here's hoping Bradley is as good as some claim he will be, but we better have a good backup outfielder who can play CF and hit fairly well.