Sizing up the World Series - Sox/Cards Preview - Defense and Intangibles

[Orange Juiced]

Defense

Defensively, this is more competitive than the ALCS. The Tigers were far inferior to the Red Sox in the defensive department, and it showed up in the ALCS. But these Cardinals are a little better than the Tigers defensively. They ranked #1 in the NL in fielding percentage at .988. Here is their likely fielding lineup and their b-ref dWAR numbers:

 

C – Y.Molina: +2.1

1b – Adams: -0.8

2b – Carpenter: +0.3

3b – Freese: -1.5

SS – Kozma: +1.3

LF – Holliday: -2.3

CF – Jay: -0.9

RF – Beltran: -1.5

TOTAL: -3.3

 

Meanwhile, here’s Boston’s likely fielding lineup and their b-ref dWAR numbers:

 

C – Saltalmacchia: +0.3

1b – Napoli: +0.4 (Ortiz in NL parks would likely bring this down)

2b – Pedroia: +2.3

3b – Bogaerts: 0.0

SS – Drew: +0.6

LF – Gomes: -0.3 (Nava: -1.2)

CF – Ellsbury: +1.9

RF – Victorino: +2.2

TOTAL: +7.4 (+6.5 if Nava is in LF)

 

Still, one must say that the Red Sox hold a defensive advantage over the Cardinals. One key area of difference is at catcher. Molina is, as is usual for the Molinas, excellent behind the plate. Not only did he have just 3 passed balls for the season, he also threw out 43% of would-be base stealers (he’s at 45% for his entire career). His mere presence may neutralize Boston’s big advantage on the basepaths. And if he alone can prevent the Red Sox from taking 5 extra bases during the series, that may be enough to overcome their defensive disadvantages elsewhere. We should not underestimate what Molina brings to the table here.

 

All told, I think 8 other players have to outweigh the one huge advantage St. Louis has at C, though that one advantage may end up being a difference-maker. I think the Cardinals’ deficiencies in the outfield with Holliday, Jay, and Beltran, especially in Fenway Park, could prove to be problematic for the Cardinals.

 

SLIGHT EDGE: BOSTON

 

 

Intangibles

Like with the ALCS, there’s no way to know for sure how these will work. These are the two best teams in baseball, and they are very evenly matched. Both have excellent, grinding offenses. Both have solid starting rotations and good bullpens. Both are well-managed. And not that it matters for the World Series, but both have outstanding farm systems so both teams should be good for years to come.

 

I think the Red Sox have a little magic going, but magic won’t help against the 100mph heat of Rosenthal. This series features two of the most electrifying postseason performers in baseball history in David Ortiz and Carlos Beltran, though this is Beltran’s first foray into the World Series. Each team still has players on it from their franchise’s most recent World Series championship, and each franchise has a tremendous championship pedigree.

 

One key to me will be the relative impact of two players in particular. For the Cardinals, it’s Allen Craig. He’s a very good hitter but he’s returning from injury, with no real time to get up to speed. What will he provide the Cardinals at DH in Fenway? He probably won’t play the field in St. Louis, but he could provide a big lift for them in Boston. Meanwhile, for Boston, it’s Xander Bogaerts. He had virtually no impact on the team during the regular season, but he’s been amazing in the playoffs:

 

6 ab, 7 r, 3 h, 3 2b, 5 bb, .500/.727/1.000/1.727

 

His emergence not only improves the club tremendously over Middlebrooks, it deepens the bench considerably because now Middlebrooks and his terrific RH power can be brought in if they need an extra base hit late. And he gives the Sox a boost of energy. I think Xander could be the biggest key to the entire series, as he hopefully starts every game.

 

It’s hard to give any intangible edge either way, but if I have to have one, I think it’s to the Sox.

 

SLIGHT EDGE: BOSTON

 

 

So in conclusion, I see the Sox as having the edge offensively (including baserunning) and defensively, and in the intangibles department. St. Louis has the edge in pitching – both starting pitching and in the bullpen. This should make for a great series. In the ALCS I feared a game 7 with Lackey going up against Verlander. This time, I think it would end up being Buchholz against Kelly, and that’s a matchup that I’m fine with.

 

Prediction: Red Sox in 7.

[Midwest Manners]

With all do respect sir, when you're looking at intangibles you are truly under estimating the value of Yadier Molina, it cannot be measured by a defensive metric. There isn't a smarter player in the game and he will use that understanding of the game to beat you. His value to the cardinals is immeasurable. And while Boston is a great base stealing team don't count on them being able to do so against Yadi.

 

I will tell you this if the series does go 7 I do believe the Red Sox will win because Joe Kelly in Fenway versus a patient Boston lineup is not a good matchup for him, but I think the cardinals have a clear pitching advantage in games 1 2 5 and 6 with game 4 being a complete tossup between Lynn and Peavy of pitchers who have the potential to be really good or really bad.

 

Another wrinkle of this could be if Game 1 is rained out, then Game 5 becomes Shelby Miller versus Ryan Dempster or Doubrant. I'm not sure who has the edge in that matchup but it would mean that Wainwright and Wacha would pitch games 1 2 6 and 7 and the cards would have the pitching edge in all of Boston's home games.

 

Your analysis on defense is accurate the cardinals have a solid fielding percentage but do not have much range, and one area where your team probably has a little bit of an edge is in the bench. But the cardinals will gain a significant advantage in St Louis when baseball is played the way God intended it to be and Ortiz plays first and Napoli rides the bench.

[Orange Juiced]

With all do respect sir, when you're looking at intangibles you are truly under estimating the value of Yadier Molina, it cannot be measured by a defensive metric. There isn't a smarter player in the game and he will use that understanding of the game to beat you. His value to the cardinals is immeasurable. And while Boston is a great base stealing team don't count on them being able to do so against Yadi.

 

Um, did you miss the part where I said this:

 

"One key area of difference is at catcher. Molina is, as is usual for the Molinas, excellent behind the plate. Not only did he have just 3 passed balls for the season, he also threw out 43% of would-be base stealers (he’s at 45% for his entire career). His mere presence may neutralize Boston’s big advantage on the basepaths. And if he alone can prevent the Red Sox from taking 5 extra bases during the series, that may be enough to overcome their defensive disadvantages elsewhere. We should not underestimate what Molina brings to the table here."

[Midwest Manners]

No I got it I was just speaking to the intangibles that you bring up. Just about everything Yadi does except for hit and throw out baserunners is intangible.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

You're intangible.

[Orange Juiced]

No I got it I was just speaking to the intangibles that you bring up. Just about everything Yadi does except for hit and throw out baserunners is intangible.

 

Ok whatever.

[sk7326]

With all do respect sir, when you're looking at intangibles you are truly under estimating the value of Yadier Molina, it cannot be measured by a defensive metric. There isn't a smarter player in the game and he will use that understanding of the game to beat you. His value to the cardinals is immeasurable. And while Boston is a great base stealing team don't count on them being able to do so against Yadi.

 

I will tell you this if the series does go 7 I do believe the Red Sox will win because Joe Kelly in Fenway versus a patient Boston lineup is not a good matchup for him, but I think the cardinals have a clear pitching advantage in games 1 2 5 and 6 with game 4 being a complete tossup between Lynn and Peavy of pitchers who have the potential to be really good or really bad.

 

Another wrinkle of this could be if Game 1 is rained out, then Game 5 becomes Shelby Miller versus Ryan Dempster or Doubrant. I'm not sure who has the edge in that matchup but it would mean that Wainwright and Wacha would pitch games 1 2 6 and 7 and the cards would have the pitching edge in all of Boston's home games.

 

Your analysis on defense is accurate the cardinals have a solid fielding percentage but do not have much range, and one area where your team probably has a little bit of an edge is in the bench. But the cardinals will gain a significant advantage in St Louis when baseball is played the way God intended it to be and Ortiz plays first and Napoli rides the bench.

 

Baseball was not intended to be played with one incompetent player being forced to do something incompetently. Reduces the strategy involved, as well as the entertainment.

 

Cardinals could gain an advantage in Saint Louis, but it depends on Allen Craig's form. The AL team usually has the advantage because the first hitter off the bench for the AL is miles better than the NL's.

[Midwest Manners]

You could argue about entertainment, but how can you say that DH creates more strategy? In NL games you can have a pitchers duel going and a runner on second with the 8th man up, the opposing manager an walk the 8th man to make your manager have to decide do you pinch hit for your pitcher who is dealing for a chance to score or do you ride it out with your pitcher?

 

The DH extends careers and creates more offense but for me I'd much prefer to see the strategy of a national league game.

[sk7326]

You could argue about entertainment, but how can you say that DH creates more strategy? In NL games you can have a pitchers duel going and a runner on second with the 8th man up, the opposing manager an walk the 8th man to make your manager have to decide do you pinch hit for your pitcher who is dealing for a chance to score or do you ride it out with your pitcher?

 

The DH extends careers and creates more offense but for me I'd much prefer to see the strategy of a national league game.

 

Because every decision involving the pitcher is obvious - bunting, pinch hitting. It's obvious because the pitcher has virtually no offensive ability. Players with ability can do more things, and thus more actual tactical options for a manger. The scenario you describe is also extremely obvious - you play for the lead - because the pitcher offers zero value offensively.

 

I am fascinated by the need to watch a player do something he has no time to study. We accept that pitching is hard - there is a dedicated coach, and pitchers are forgiven from being totally useless hitters. We also accept that hitting is hard - Ted Williams wrote a book about it, there is dedicated coaching, yet fans get angry at a guy who specializes in hitting without being a good fielder.

[Midwest Manners]

The situation I described is not obvious if it's in the 5th inning and you have a bullpen like Detroit had this year

[sk7326]

The situation I described is not obvious if it's in the 5th inning and you have a bullpen like Detroit had this year

 

You are offering one of the only examples of intrigue in this case. Bill James studied this, almost all of the so-called strategy are frankly automatic decisions. Bunt v no-bunt, Pinch hit v no-pinch hit. 99% of those case, the decision is really clear. A case like you describe happens very rarely.

 

This does not speak to the larger point - hitting, like pitching is a very specific skill. However, the treatment of players who are only good at the specific skill varies wildly.

[Thunder]

Enough with these threads, OJ. Looks like you are going out of your way to make threads that don't really need to be here in the first place.

[mvp 78]

^ newly appointed mod

[Navafan29]

NL should keep having no DH. It's fun to watch pitchers bat, and that's all you need. The AL and NL aren't the east and the west. The difference between them is the DH rule, and without that difference, they would just be two differently named leagues. There wouldn't be much meaning behind interleague play or representing one of the leagues if they both had a DH. Having no DH also allows rookies to get in the game more instead of being benched forever in the AL.

 

About the actual topic: I can't wait to see Ellsbury mess with the pitcher's head and try to steal with Yadi at the plate. Yadi throws out almost half of guys trying to steal, so Ellsbury might only have a 70% chance of being safe (idk, something like that). Quinton Berry vs Yadier in the 9th of a one run game would be the best.

[Midwest Manners]

The numbers on Yadi's thrown out percentage are misleading, because anymore so few runners actually run on him. The steals that happen against Yadi are almost always solely the fault of the pitcher. Yadi does a good job at shutting down the running game by way more than just just having a strong arm. So you'll probably see the Red Sox picking their spots more and much fewer attempts than normal.

 

Berry might be another matter though, the Reds in September would pinch run Billy Hamilton and it didn't seem it mattered what Yadi did Hamilton was going to steal and did a couple of times.

[jung]

The difference in and of itself is no reason for the NL to keep the DH. Is hockey not played the same way whether east or west, basketball? In fact MLB could take its guide from the NBA. The rules governing play in the NBA are the same regardless of where you are playing. However western conference teams had become the offensive powerhouse teams of the NBA with the eastern conference teams depending more on defensive dominance. A league or conference does develop a personality even if the rules are the same.

 

There is also an example in the NFL where for some period all the good young QB's were drafted into the AFC. That turned out to have some bearing on how the game was played one conference vs the other.

 

IMO, both leagues should be the same in MLB and they both should have the DH. In addition, interleague play has lost its attraction for me. I would prefer that teams play more within their respective leagues and a bit more within their respective divisions. At the end of the day, I think you want division champs playing each other as much as possible in the post season. Myself I am glad to see the two teams with the best records in their respective leagues playing in the WS.

Edited October 22, 2013 by jung

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Enough with these threads, OJ. Looks like you are going out of your way to make threads that don't really need to be here in the first place.

 

I actually enjoy this thread and do not think it's unnecessary. I think it's a really good idea.

[sk7326]

The difference in and of itself is no reason for the NL to keep the DH. Is hockey not played the same way whether east or west, basketball. In fact MLB could take its guide from the NBA. The rules governing play in the NBA are the same regardless of where you are playing. However western conference teams had become the offensive powerhouse teams of the NBA with the eastern conference teams depended more on defensive dominance. A league or conference does develop a personality even if the rules are the same.

 

There is also an example in the NFL where for some period all the good young QB's were drafted into the AFC. That turned out to have some bearing on how the game was played one conference vs the other.

 

IMO, both leagues should be the same in MLB and they both should have the DH. In addition, interleague play has lost its attraction for me. I would prefer that teams play more within their respective leagues and a bit more within their respective divisions. At the end of the day, I think you want division champs playing each other as much as possible in the post season. Myself I am glad to see the two teams with the best records in their respective leagues playing in the WS.

 

Agreed on interleague play. At the same time, a more balanced schedule is not a bad thing. We see our division rivals a TON, and this year we had Cleveland win 91 games, 5 more than the Yankees, essentially riding the backs of beating some legitimately horrid AL Central foes. 13 games in division, 9 games out of division, 20 interleague = 162 and that would probably allow playoff seeding to be much more uniform. Baseball is just too fluky a game to get the best teams to win the title that often (as opposed to the NBA where there are hardly any upsets) - but it'd be nicer for the teams to not have the schedule imbalance that there is currently.

 

Here is what boggles my mind about the DH (and yes, both leagues should have it). We accept that teams carry players who are only good at fielding. We know that pitchers are only good at pitching (generally). Yet somehow, despite hitting being such an intricate discipline, fans get mad about the idea that some players can only be good at hitting and that's totally cool. What is gained by having a dude go up and do a job for which he is totally ill-equipped (and frankly, with how hard pitching is, he should be "too busy to concentrate on preparing to hit")? Who wins - just some high minded nonsense, that's all.

[jung]

Agreed on interleague play. At the same time, a more balanced schedule is not a bad thing. We see our division rivals a TON, and this year we had Cleveland win 91 games, 5 more than the Yankees, essentially riding the backs of beating some legitimately horrid AL Central foes. 13 games in division, 9 games out of division, 20 interleague = 162 and that would probably allow playoff seeding to be much more uniform. Baseball is just too fluky a game to get the best teams to win the title that often (as opposed to the NBA where there are hardly any upsets) - but it'd be nicer for the teams to not have the schedule imbalance that there is currently.

 

Here is what boggles my mind about the DH (and yes, both leagues should have it). We accept that teams carry players who are only good at fielding. We know that pitchers are only good at pitching (generally). Yet somehow, despite hitting being such an intricate discipline, fans get mad about the idea that some players can only be good at hitting and that's totally cool. What is gained by having a dude go up and do a job for which he is totally ill-equipped (and frankly, with how hard pitching is, he should be "too busy to concentrate on preparing to hit")? Who wins - just some high minded nonsense, that's all.

 

I might not have been clear enough in my last post. I would want interleague to disappear. If we got that to happen, I would actually want most of those games to go to inter-conference play with "a bit of an uptick" in division play...whatever it would take so that the number of division games played made for relevant division champs. i have not looked at the question in depth but I think if we took all interleague away, then a few of those games would have to get tossed back into the division just to maintain a relevant ratio. Maybe they could all go to inter-conference. I just have not looked at it closely.

[sk7326]

I might not have been clear enough in my last post. I would want interleague to disappear. If we got that to happen, I would actually want most of those games to go to inter-conference play with "a bit of an uptick" in division play...whatever it would take so that the number of division games played made for relevant division champs. i have not looked at the question in depth but I think if we took all interleague away, then a few of those games would have to get tossed back into the division just to maintain a relevant ratio. Maybe they could all go to inter-conference. I just have not looked at it closely.

 

As long as the divisions are aligned this way (15 teams per league) interleague is sort of foisted upon us - just a logistical point. Although I'd prefer to go to 4 divisions myself.

[jung]

As long as the divisions are aligned this way (15 teams per league) interleague is sort of foisted upon us - just a logistical point. Although I'd prefer to go to 4 divisions myself.

 

Well OK, I guess with 15 teams per, inter-league does provide a means to absorb some games that would just become unmanageable imbalance within conferences. But maybe then if inter-league was just used for that purpose alone, the total number of interleague games could be cut considerably. Might bring back some of the novelty although again I would love to just see it go away if the numbers could be made to work.

[Orange Juiced]

Enough with these threads, OJ. Looks like you are going out of your way to make threads that don't really need to be here in the first place.

 

Yeah, it's crazy that people might want to talk about the Red Sox being in the World Series.

 

Put it this way: If you don't find them interesting, feel free to simply not participate. It's pretty simple. If nobody wants to participate, the threads will die a natural death.

[BornToRun]

I'd just like to point out that I don't think there's a chance in hell that Dempster starts a game in this series.

[Thunder]

I'd just like to point out that I don't think there's a chance in hell that Dempster starts a game in this series.

 

If that happens... I can't even think of what I would do.

[Thunder]

I actually enjoy this thread and do not think it's unnecessary. I think it's a really good idea.

 

I guess I find it boring because I already know the majority of the content in the original post. Also, When it turns into a prediction, that's what really turns me away. Same reason I hate movie reviews, restaurant reviews, etc. It's just someone's opinion.

[Orange Juiced]

I guess I find it boring because I already know the majority of the content in the original post. Also, When it turns into a prediction, that's what really turns me away. Same reason I hate movie reviews, restaurant reviews, etc. It's just someone's opinion.

 

Isn't pretty much everything that gets said here "just someone's opinion"? Isn't that what groups like this are FOR?

[Thunder]

Isn't pretty much everything that gets said here "just someone's opinion"? Isn't that what groups like this are FOR?

 

I mean like a dead on prediction thread.

[redsoxannie]

Hi, I hope I can write this here, I just joined this today. I'm looking for 2 World Series tickets for tomorrow night's game, (Wed., 10/23rd), at Fenway, for up to approx. $200.00 each. Do not have to be together, will take 2 separate single seats. Can also be standing room, obstructed view, ANYthing...just to get into the Park. Can anyone help? Please reply if you can....and GO BOSOX!!!

[Jasonbay44]

I actually enjoy this thread and do not think it's unnecessary. I think it's a really good idea.

 

I agree. Its not like these our spam threads, he puts in a good amount of effort and I enjoy reading these threads, especially when I'm bored in class lol.

[Youk Of The Nation]

For 200 dollars you might be able to buy a semi-decent pair of binoculars to watch the game from a rooftop several blocks away. You sure aren't getting a ticket for that price.