Sizing up the ALCS - starting pitching

[User Name]

Yes it is. They wouldn't have caught Victor Martinez in the final series of the season after having clinched the division if they had no intention of catching him in the World Series.

 

What if Martinez gets injured during the ALCS? What if they grab a 2-0 lead, then have two righties one after the other (which Avila handles much better than lefties) and they sweep the series with him behind the plate? Nothing is a foregone conclusion,

[User Name]

Nobody on the bench is going to start and/or play ahead of Torii Hunter in this series unless he is injured. The assorted part just seemed odd.

 

Then assume Torii Hunter plays all games and nothing happens. He's a below-average defensive OF right now per all accounts.

[OriginalUsername]

What if Martinez gets injured during the ALCS? What if they grab a 2-0 lead, then have two righties one after the other (which Avila handles much better than lefties) and they sweep the series with him behind the plate? Nothing is a foregone conclusion,

 

Ok I'll rephrase. If Martinez is healthy it is a forgone conclusion he will catch in the World Series.

[sk7326]

Tigers defense is horrid. Cabrera is the worst 3B in the league and Fielder is below average at 1B (much more an example of how teams have historically used 1B/LF, as a place to hide somebody who can't field). Victor Martinez might catch in the NL park but that's it. The Tigers have TWO legitimately excellent defenders and lucky for them they are both in the middle of the field (Iglesias and Jackson). But otherwise Boston outflanks them across the board. Middlebrooks has the tools to be above average, Drew, Pedroia and Napoli have all been good to very good. The outfield defense has only LF as a weak spot, but in Fenway the LF defensive "norms" go out the window. Salty is an average to slightly below average catcher, but honestly nothing that causes one to think Boston is at a minus there - and if you add Ross in, the position is in solid shape.

[OriginalUsername]

Tigers defense is horrid. Cabrera is the worst 3B in the league and Fielder is below average at 1B (much more an example of how teams have historically used 1B/LF, as a place to hide somebody who can't field). Victor Martinez might catch in the NL park but that's it. The Tigers have TWO legitimately excellent defenders and lucky for them they are both in the middle of the field (Iglesias and Jackson). But otherwise Boston outflanks them across the board. Middlebrooks has the tools to be above average, Drew, Pedroia and Napoli have all been good to very good. The outfield defense has only LF as a weak spot, but in Fenway the LF defensive "norms" go out the window. Salty is an average to slightly below average catcher, but honestly nothing that causes one to think Boston is at a minus there - and if you add Ross in, the position is in solid shape.

 

Jackson actually had a down year defensively. Dirks has been the Tigers best OF defensively. It seems like everyone likes to use UZR, and Infante had a 2.0 UZR and was not below average. Hunter has been some what disappointing but still rates closer to average. For all the talk about Peralta at SS, he had a 3.5 UZR this year and 11.5 last year.

[Palodios]

Infante is average, Fielder is below average, Cabrera is awful AND hobbled, Peralta is not a LF, their assorted RF's are below average, Avila can't throw runners out. Their defense may be worse than people make it out to be.

 

For the record, the idea of Martinez catching right now is ludicrous. He has not caught a single game in more than two years.

 

Everyone keeps saying that... but somehow the pitching is still throwing out Verlander and two other guys who will get extended Cy Young looks. I just don't understand how their defense can be as bad as it is, and still have so many guys sporting 2.00 and 3.00 ERAs. Was the competition in the AL Central really that bad?

 

*checks stats*

 

Detroit

47 - 29 against AL Central.

46 - 40 against everyone else.

 

Red Sox

44 -32 against the Al East

53 -33 Against everyone else.

 

 

If there was a stat that gives me confidence about the series, that's the one.

[User Name]

Jackson actually had a down year defensively. Dirks has been the Tigers best OF defensively. It seems like everyone likes to use UZR, and Infante had a 2.0 UZR and was not below average. Hunter has been some what disappointing but still rates closer to average. For all the talk about Peralta at SS, he had a 3.5 UZR this year and 11.5 last year.

 

UZR is not a good measure for MIF, because the formula somewhat overrates arm strength, which is why i didn't cite UZR numbers for Peralta/Infante, even though over such a sample size, Peralta's numbers seem more legit. Dirks is a "body of work" case: He had a really bad overall defensive ranking prior to this year, and doesn't pass the eye test. Given the defensive statistics though, he's probably improved significantly, and is a lot better than we're giving him credit for.

[OriginalUsername]

Everyone keeps saying that... but somehow the pitching is still throwing out Verlander and two other guys who will get extended Cy Young looks. I just don't understand how their defense can be as bad as it is, and still have so many guys sporting 2.00 and 3.00 ERAs. Was the competition in the AL Central really that bad?

 

*checks stats*

 

Detroit

47 - 29 against AL Central.

46 - 40 against everyone else.

 

Red Sox

44 -32 against the Al East

53 -33 Against everyone else.

 

 

If there was a stat that gives me confidence about the series, that's the one.

 

Well Tigers are 4-3 against Boston and 17-15 against the East vs. the Red Sox 19-15 against the Central. The Guardians had 92 wins and the Royals had 86 wins so the division wasn't as bad as people had thought going in. The Tigers defense is being overblown here, plus the Tigers set the major league record in strikeouts so that will help a suspect defense.

[User Name]

Everyone keeps saying that... but somehow the pitching is still throwing out Verlander and two other guys who will get extended Cy Young looks. I just don't understand how their defense can be as bad as it is, and still have so many guys sporting 2.00 and 3.00 ERAs. Was the competition in the AL Central really that bad?

 

*checks stats*

 

Detroit

47 - 29 against AL Central.

46 - 40 against everyone else.

 

Red Sox

44 -32 against the Al East

53 -33 Against everyone else.

 

 

If there was a stat that gives me confidence about the series, that's the one.

 

There's also the fact that the Tigers' pitching staff relied heavily on striking out a lot of batters without walking a lot of them. The AL Central had three of the most K-prone teams in the Majors (MIN, CLE, CWS) and a Kansas City team that was last in strikeouts as a team but was pretty bad offensively overall and barely walked.

 

The Sox also K a lot, but none of those teams even sniff the amount of plate discipline the Red Sox sport as a team. If there's a team in the Majors that can grind the Tigers SP into submission, that's the Red Sox.

[Palodios]

Well Tigers are 4-3 against Boston and 17-15 against the East vs. the Red Sox 19-15 against the Central. The Guardians had 92 wins and the Royals had 86 wins so the division wasn't as bad as people had thought going in. The Tigers defense is being overblown here, plus the Tigers set the major league record in strikeouts so that will help a suspect defense.

 

The Tigers had two series against the Red Sox. The more recent one, the Red Sox humiliated the Tigers 2-1.

The first series was in June was before the Red Sox hit their stride... two of the losses came from Andrew Bailey in the pre-Uehara era, and Allen Webster. Adding Peavy, Buchholz and Middlebrooks are big difference makers here.

[OriginalUsername]

The Tigers had two series against the Red Sox. The more recent one, the Red Sox humiliated the Tigers 2-1.

The first series was in June was before the Red Sox hit their stride... two of the losses came from Andrew Bailey in the pre-Uehara era, and Allen Webster. Adding Peavy, Buchholz and Middlebrooks are big difference makers here.

 

It was really one game where the Red Sox ran up the score on relievers who aren't going to be on the playoff roster. The Tigers have a history with Peavy and it's not to good for Peavy. Oakland crushed the Tigers in a four game series late in the season at Detroit. Would've swept the series had the Tigers not rallied from 3 down against Balfour. That really didn't matter for the playoffs.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well Tigers are 4-3 against Boston and 17-15 against the East vs. the Red Sox 19-15 against the Central. The Guardians had 92 wins and the Royals had 86 wins so the division wasn't as bad as people had thought going in. The Tigers defense is being overblown here, plus the Tigers set the major league record in strikeouts so that will help a suspect defense.

 

And in those 7 games, 5 of the starters were Alvarez, Dempster, Doubront, Webster, and Porcello.

 

Not to mention this play

[User Name]

Is your point that you don't think the Red Sox are well equipped to handle to the Tigers? Because i don't think that's an argument that'd fly. The two teams are pretty evenly matched, but the Cabrera injury is a significant point in the Sox' favor.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Tigers had two series against the Red Sox. The more recent one, the Red Sox humiliated the Tigers 2-1.

The first series was in June was before the Red Sox hit their stride... two of the losses came from Andrew Bailey in the pre-Uehara era, and Allen Webster. Adding Peavy, Buchholz and Middlebrooks are big difference makers here.

 

....and the 3rd win for the Tigers came from the Nava catch that was called a drop, which was a disgusting call.

 

The Red Sox very well could have taken 3/4 if Uehara was pitching and if the umpires understood anything about baseball. That call still makes me furious.

[OriginalUsername]

Is your point that you don't think the Red Sox are well equipped to handle to the Tigers? Because i don't think that's an argument that'd fly. The two teams are pretty evenly matched, but the Cabrera injury is a significant point in the Sox' favor.

 

I don't know if the Red Sox are equipped to handle the Tigers. I'm not really a Red Sox fan. There does seem to be a lot of misinformation about the Tigers and the exaggerations about their defense.

[User Name]

I don't know if the Red Sox are equipped to handle the Tigers. I'm not really a Red Sox fan. There does seem to be a lot of misinformation about the Tigers and the exaggerations about their defense.

 

What misinformation? Their defense was awful by every available measure. And the Red Sox can beat the Tigers. In the playoffs, anyone can beat anyone.

[OriginalUsername]

What misinformation? Their defense was awful by every available measure. And the Red Sox can beat the Tigers. In the playoffs, anyone can beat anyone.

 

Martinez being able to catch. It is indeed a forgone conclusion he will catch in a potential World Series. The Tigers total defensive numbers are skewed negatively by the bad corner infielders. The Tigers did upgrade their defense by bringing in Iglesias. The stolen base issues are really on the pitchers. Anibal Sanchez is about the worst I have ever seen at holding on runners. I'm really surprised though no one mentioned the real issues with the Tigers such as having terrible team speed and Jackson's penchant for striking out now.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't know if the Red Sox are equipped to handle the Tigers. I'm not really a Red Sox fan. There does seem to be a lot of misinformation about the Tigers and the exaggerations about their defense.

 

You're very clearly a Tigers fan, that much is obvious, but it's not a big deal.

 

Nobody is exaggerating anything about their defense. Miggy, when healthy, is a defensive liability. When he's hurt? The Sox are a team that finds holes and exploits them (not gay sex). I don't expect any different this series.

 

Even if Ellsbury and Victorino don't bunt, Cabrera is going to have to cheat even more than usual on the grass and his range is going to be about 1 foot in either direction from that distance.

 

I expect a lot of ground ball base hits on the left side of the infield, especially for Victorino and Pedroia, who always seems to be out in front and hit a big chopper off the plate when he's down in the count.

[User Name]

You're talking like Martinez catching will help them defensively. Not only can't he catch consecutive games, his awful defensive skills are what got him moved from the position in the first place. Martinez catching doesn't help their defense. It exacerbates their defensive problems. I think you're the one who's misinformed here. No offense meant.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Martinez being able to catch. It is indeed a forgone conclusion he will catch in a potential World Series. The Tigers total defensive numbers are skewed negatively by the bad corner infielders. The Tigers did upgrade their defense by bringing in Iglesias. The stolen base issues are really on the pitchers. Anibal Sanchez is about the worst I have ever seen at holding on runners. I'm really surprised though no one mentioned the real issues with the Tigers such as having terrible team speed and Jackson's penchant for striking out now.

 

So you're saying the Tigers are going to play Iglesias at SS, which puts Peralta in LF?

 

Go watch some video of the Rays playing LF at Fenway. And they had their regular outfielders out there in Sean Rod and DeJesus. And they play there 9 times a year.

 

If Peralta plays LF, I guarantee you that there will be MULTIPLE fly balls that will do one of 2 things: Land very low on the wall that he doesn't go after, or bounce back to the SS leading to a triple to LF.

 

I see it so many times it's unreal in visiting LF, and Peralta is new to LF and the Monster.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You're talking like Martinez catching will help them defensively. Not only can't he catch consecutive games, his awful defensive skills are what got him moved from the position in the first place. Martinez catching doesn't help their defense. It exacerbates their defensive problems. I think you're the one who's misinformed here. No offense meant.

 

He's saying moving Vic to C will allow Cabrera to DH and Peralta to play 3B (Iglesias at SS), which does improve their defense, but their weakness in throwing out runners is not helped at all. And, like you said, he's a terrible catcher.

[User Name]

He's saying moving Vic to C will allow Cabrera to DH and Peralta to play 3B (Iglesias at SS), which does improve their defense, but their weakness in throwing out runners is not helped at all.

 

It doesn't. You put a stone behind the plate, and significantly downgrade catcher. Avila had his problems throwing runners out, but he's a top-notch defender behind the plate.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It doesn't. You put a stone behind the plate, and significantly downgrade catcher. Avila had his problems throwing runners out, but he's a top-notch defender behind the plate.

 

But you have a substantially improved left side of the infield and bunting because less of an option, which is a big deal in a close game.

 

The good news is that they can't just make a defensive switch late in the game without getting rid of Cabrera's bat.

[OriginalUsername]

He's saying moving Vic to C will allow Cabrera to DH and Peralta to play 3B (Iglesias at SS), which does improve their defense, but their weakness in throwing out runners is not helped at all. And, like you said, he's a terrible catcher.

 

The weakness in throwing out runners is really on the pitchers. Scherzer and Sanchez are not good at holding runners on. Verlander and Fister are ok. It's not like Avila is throwing them out so Martinez can't be much worse. I would sacrifice the defense at catcher to improve 3B and LF. There is no way the Tigers can sit Peralta so he has to be worked into the field somewhere.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The weakness in throwing out runners is really on the pitchers. Scherzer and Sanchez are not good at holding runners on. Verlander and Fister are ok. It's not like Avila is throwing them out so Martinez can't be much worse. I would sacrifice the defense at catcher to improve 3B and LF. There is no way the Tigers can sit Peralta so he has to be worked into the field somewhere.

 

He'll play LF. There's a lot of talk that a shorter LF will help him out.

 

That theory is outrageous, IMO. That wall will absolutely destroy people.

[User Name]

But you have a substantially improved left side of the infield and bunting because less of an option, which is a big deal in a close game.

 

The good news is that they can't just make a defensive switch late in the game without getting rid of Cabrera's bat.

 

Yeah but you have a substantial downgrade of the most important defensive position in the diamond. Martinez received constant criticism because he had poor mobility behind the plate and gave bad targets when he was with the Red Sox almost a half-decade ago. How will he fare now that he's barely catched the last two years and has balky knees? I don't see the improvement.

 

You want to improve? Move Fielder to DH, Cabrera to first, Peralta to third, and sit Martinez. Against lefties, then you play Martinez.

[OriginalUsername]

He'll play LF. There's a lot of talk that a shorter LF will help him out.

 

That theory is outrageous, IMO. That wall will absolutely destroy people.

 

I have a sneaking suspicion he may start at SS. I think the Tigers may have soured on Iglesias's hitting a bit. Peralta just lacks the range at SS. He makes up for it by his excellent positioning and good hands. He's not a total liability at SS but he's also no Iglesias.

[OriginalUsername]

Yeah but you have a substantial downgrade of the most important defensive position in the diamond. Martinez received constant criticism because he had poor mobility behind the plate and gave bad targets when he was with the Red Sox almost a half-decade ago. How will he fare now that he's barely catched the last two years and has balky knees? I don't see the improvement.

 

You want to improve? Move Fielder to DH, Cabrera to first, Peralta to third, and sit Martinez. Against lefties, then you play Martinez.

 

LOL you can't sit Martinez who has been the Tigers hottest hitter the second half and into the playoffs. If anything, Martinez should play 1B and Fielder should DH.

[User Name]

LOL you can't sit Martinez who has been the Tigers hottest hitter the second half and into the playoffs. If anything, Martinez should play 1B and Fielder should DH.

 

LOL but he's not a better hitter than Fielder. And LOL where do you play Cabrera in this case? The point is improving the D, you have to make a sacrifice somewhere.

 

You have several possible alignments, but all of them have their weaknesses with a hobbled Cabrera, and Martinez no longer being a real option defensively. The tigers could just roll out their best available offensive alignment and forget defense too.

[OriginalUsername]

LOL but he's not a better hitter than Fielder. And LOL where do you play Cabrera in this case? The point is improving the D, you have to make a sacrifice somewhere.

 

You have several possible alignments, but all of them have their weaknesses with a hobbled Cabrera, and Martinez no longer being a real option defensively. The tigers could just roll out their best available offensive alignment and forget defense too.

 

Martinez is a better defender at 1B than Fielder. You would still play Cabrera at 3B but at least 1B would be improved. Martinez is an option defensively. He has caught this year and did fairly well catching. The entire left side of the field would be improved simply by catching Martinez.