Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[User Name]

Are those things sufficient upgrades to justify the expense of bringing them in over the decent, relatively inexpensive men we have at those positions now?

 

He said "adding two reliable setup men" not "signing two reliable setup men". The idea of bringing one or both from within was never ruled out.

 

And the problem with that is? It's a bad FO that only plans for the next 12 months after all.

 

A good FO, though, makes moves for both the short and long term when a championship window opens up, as it has for the Red Sox. Your logic is terrible.

[User Name]

Adding McCann will cost us a draft pick .... yes? I am happy with Salty and I hope that he signs a 3 year deal. It will be interesting to see what the Sox do this off-season ... my only point is that if the team comes back as is but with JBJ and Bogaerts replacing Ellsbury and Drew I am in favor to adding a # 1 or 2 type SP.

You are right about it not being only about the 2014 season but 4-5 years after. If the Sox control Buchholz and perhaps resign Lester adding a 3rd quality SP could never hurt.

 

Salty couldn't hold McCann's jock strap, and again, the problem with Tanaka is that he's a massive gamble. You just don't know how his stuff will translate to MLB.

[Palodios]

He said "adding two reliable setup men" not "signing two reliable setup men". The idea of bringing one or both from within was never ruled out.

 

I did, although I am not sure what can be added from within the organization. There is plenty of talent in the minors (plus Dempster + Doubront) but I don't think those guys will be reliable every single outing right now. I don't see the Red Sox resigning Bailey. Hanrahan is a possibility, but there are plenty of doubts there too. Brian Wilson on a one year deal would be nice, even at high AAV simply because his beard would fit well here. There are always overpays and bargains on relievers in free agency, Ben just needs to find his.

[marklmw]

Salty couldn't hold McCann's jock strap, and again, the problem with Tanaka is that he's a massive gamble. You just don't know how his stuff will translate to MLB.

 

I will defer to management on if Tanaka has the right stuff. IMO you are overvaluing McCann by most baseball metrics. WAR alone Salty is 2.8 while McCann is 2.1. Salty also has a better Avg., OPB & OPS for 2013. Saying that Salty cannot hold McCann's jock strap is both stupid and Un-American.

[marklmw]

I did, although I am not sure what can be added from within the organization. There is plenty of talent in the minors (plus Dempster + Doubront) but I don't think those guys will be reliable every single outing right now. I don't see the Red Sox resigning Bailey. Hanrahan is a possibility, but there are plenty of doubts there too. Brian Wilson on a one year deal would be nice, even at high AAV simply because his beard would fit well here. There are always overpays and bargains on relievers in free agency, Ben just needs to find his.

 

I predict that Demspter will be dealt. He does not give the team anything that they cannot find on the farm right now. Plus, that was a bonehead move to be hitting ARoid, things worked out well but that singular event seemed to ignite the Yankees which is something you never want to be doing.

[User Name]

I will defer to management on if Tanaka has the right stuff. IMO you are overvaluing McCann by most baseball metrics. WAR alone Salty is 2.8 while McCann is 2.1. Salty also has a better Avg., OPB & OPS for 2013. Saying that Salty cannot hold McCann's jock strap is both stupid and Un-American.

 

The problem with WAR and catcher value is that WAR's formula doesn't have a reliable catcher defense component, and it's heavily affected by games played, which gives Salty an edge right off the bat. Catcher is a defense-first position, and Salty, even with his improvement, is still a terrible catcher.

 

Also, Salty's offensive season was fueled by an impossible-to-sustain .372 BABIP. It's more about you overvaluing Salty for what is more likely than not a mirage. And for the record, Salty had all of eight more OPS points than McCann, and wRC+ (a superior metric to OPS) has McCann as having had the better offensive season 122-117.

 

I am also not American and can therefore be a bit more objective regarding this subject.

[a700hitter]

I predict that Demspter will be dealt. He does not give the team anything that they cannot find on the farm right now. Plus, that was a bonehead move to be hitting ARoid, things worked out well but that singular event seemed to ignite the Yankees which is something you never want to be doing.

They will have to eat salary and still not get much in return. IMO, he's worth more as a depth option than what we would get in return. Edited October 1, 2013 by a700hitter

[marklmw]

The problem with WAR and catcher value is that WAR's formula doesn't have a reliable catcher defense component, and it's heavily affected by games played, which gives Salty an edge right off the bat. Catcher is a defense-first position, and Salty, even with his improvement, is still a terrible catcher.

 

Also, Salty's offensive season was fueled by an impossible-to-sustain .372 BABIP. It's more about you overvaluing Salty for what is more likely than not a mirage. And for the record, Salty had all of eight more OPS points than McCann, and wRC+ (a superior metric to OPS) has McCann as having had the better offensive season 122-117.

 

I am also not American and can therefore be a bit more objective regarding this subject.

 

UN ... the Anti-American comment was meant as a joke. Politicians in our country through the term around including President Obummer. I just have to stand up when you belittle Salty in the manner that you did especially since he has improved defensively and offensively and is an all around good guy playing one of the toughest positions. IMO the Sox will be doing well to re-sign Salty until they can develop a replacement or sign a significant upgrade. To me McCann at best is marginally better than Salty.

[User Name]

UN ... the Anti-American comment was meant as a joke. Politicians in our country through the term around including President Obummer. I just have to stand up when you belittle Salty in the manner that you did especially since he has improved defensively and offensively and is an all around good guy playing one of the toughest positions. IMO the Sox will be doing well to re-sign Salty until they can develop a replacement or sign a significant upgrade. To me McCann at best is marginally better than Salty.

 

Don't get me wrong, i think Salty's cool and i like his hair. He can also hit, but he's just terrible defensively. I won't cry to the heavens if they re-sign him, but i strongly disagree that McCann is just a marginal upgrade.

[dupree]

McCann is another pipe dream. He will cost more than Salty and is a small upgrade for the money he would command. Plus i dont see McCann leaving ATL. Also Salty's ability to call games in my opinion has gotten far better, he will never be a great defensive catcher but I think he deserves a contract and Ben should work fast on him after the season's end.

[User Name]

On what do you base these ideas? McCann will get more money, but how much more given his age and this year's strong catcher market? Also, Atlanta has his replacement in Evan Gattis. There is no reason whatsoever why the Sox couldn't sign McCann if they wanted him.

[dupree]

I just dont see McCann leaving ATL. And yes the Sox could sign him if they wanted but why spend more money on a older player to come in and have to learn the pitching staff and not be that much of an upgrade. Id say resign Salty. But like always if someone doesnt agree with your exact thinking you ridicule them and question every aspect of their thinking process like you are some expert of the FO thinking. Well sorry to say you are not if you were you wouldnt be on a Red Sox discussion forum making your comments. Please Stop.

[marklmw]

Don't get me wrong, i think Salty's cool and i like his hair. He can also hit, but he's just terrible defensively. I won't cry to the heavens if they re-sign him, but i strongly disagree that McCann is just a marginal upgrade.

 

UN ... I think that you have a man-crush on McCann. His numbers just do agree with your assessment. Both he and Salty have similar DWAR of .2. Granted Salty played 22 more games at catcher but that is 22 more games squatting behind the plate so that makes Salty's offensive numbers even more impressive than McCann's. McCann CS% is .242 while Salty's was .212 ... both are not impressive. Other factors are how well the pitchers hold the runners since sometimes the base is stolen on the pitcher not the catcher. Are the Sox interested in McCann because he is a FA because if I were Boston I would be going after Yan Gomes from Cleveland ... sporting a DWAR of 1.9 and a CS% of .408 and only 26 years old. The Sox can give up some prospects and have a catcher under club control for a number of years and at a great price.

[User Name]

UN ... I think that you have a man-crush on McCann. His numbers just do agree with your assessment. Both he and Salty have similar DWAR of .2. Granted Salty played 22 more games at catcher but that is 22 more games squatting behind the plate so that makes Salty's offensive numbers even more impressive than McCann's. McCann CS% is .242 while Salty's was .212 ... both are not impressive. Other factors are how well the pitchers hold the runners since sometimes the base is stolen on the pitcher not the catcher. Are the Sox interested in McCann because he is a FA because if I were Boston I would be going after Yan Gomes from Cleveland ... sporting a DWAR of 1.9 and a CS% of .408 and only 26 years old. The Sox can give up some prospects and have a catcher under club control for a number of years and at a great price.

 

Not on McCann, but rather with solid defensive catchers. I'd also be content with Carlos Ruiz on a short contract, while waiting for Swihart to be ready. And as i established above, WAR (neither Fangraphs' nor BB-Ref) doesn't have fleshed-out defensive components. But fielding bibles from years past love McCann's defense and hate Salty's, so in reality, pertinent stats do agree with my assessment.

[seabeachfred]

I will defer to management on if Tanaka has the right stuff. IMO you are overvaluing McCann by most baseball metrics. WAR alone Salty is 2.8 while McCann is 2.1. Salty also has a better Avg., OPB & OPS for 2013. Saying that Salty cannot hold McCann's jock strap is both stupid and Un-American.

 

Finally Jarrod is emerging as a solid catcher and hitter-----nothing spectacular but steadily getting better and fitting in very well with the rest of the team and the pitchers. I don't know why we would want to jettison him now. I think we need to keep as much of this team together as possible. Decent talent and chemistry showed its beautiful body this season for us and while we will most likely lose some players I would hate to see a whole new slew of people on our roster next season when we have people here who have proven they can do the job. Salty stopped swinging for the fences this season, upped his average close to 50 points and smacked out 40 doubles. I'd like to see him stay with us, especially if McCann is going to cost us a bundle. What I would really like to see is a No. 1 type ace pitcher who we could swindle some team out of.

[User Name]

Upped his average because he had a .372 BABIP. When (not if) he regresses to his low-average, sub .300 OBP, you'll be the first to jump his bones.

[marklmw]

Finally Jarrod is emerging as a solid catcher and hitter-----nothing spectacular but steadily getting better and fitting in very well with the rest of the team and the pitchers. I don't know why we would want to jettison him now. I think we need to keep as much of this team together as possible. Decent talent and chemistry showed its beautiful body this season for us and while we will most likely lose some players I would hate to see a whole new slew of people on our roster next season when we have people here who have proven they can do the job. Salty stopped swinging for the fences this season, upped his average close to 50 points and smacked out 40 doubles. I'd like to see him stay with us, especially if McCann is going to cost us a bundle. What I would really like to see is a No. 1 type ace pitcher who we could swindle some team out of.

I'm all in with you on finding a No. 1 type pitcher but unfortunately there are not many to be had and all the clubs know their value. This is why the organization is looking at Tanaka.

Edited September 30, 2013 by marklmw

[sk7326]

Upped his average because he had a .372 BABIP. When (not if) he regresses to his low-average, sub .300 OBP, you'll be the first to jump his bones.

 

BABIP won't last - but the walks and doubles were up ... which are more sustainable (improved approach). He is a solid starter in a position where replacement level is quite bad. If only he followed Victorino and gave up switch hitting.

[marklmw]

BABIP won't last - but the walks and doubles were up ... which are more sustainable (improved approach). He is a solid starter in a position where replacement level is quite bad. If only he followed Victorino and gave up switch hitting.

Salty set a franchise record for doubles with 40 this year something that Carlton Fisk never accomplished. If you are hitting doubles you are making good contact.

[sk7326]

Salty set a franchise record for doubles with 40 this year something that Carlton Fisk never accomplished. If you are hitting doubles you are making good contact.

 

If he just focused on hitting lefthanded where he does mash quite a bit ... he'd be 30% better immediately (those 30% of his plate appearances he throws away against lefties)

[jacksonianmarch]

Salty hit it just right. He'll hit FA and he will likely regress ridiculously. If his BABIP drops to even .330, his numbers would be piss poor. He's gonna get a big contract because of the dearth of talent at the position. And whomever signs him will regret it. The sox are better off getting a sup pick and letting him walk. They can see what Lavarnway could do in a full season. Chances are, he'll have a similar WAR to Salty in 2014

[marklmw]

Salty hit it just right. He'll hit FA and he will likely regress ridiculously. If his BABIP drops to even .330, his numbers would be piss poor. He's gonna get a big contract because of the dearth of talent at the position. And whomever signs him will regret it. The sox are better off getting a sup pick and letting him walk. They can see what Lavarnway could do in a full season. Chances are, he'll have a similar WAR to Salty in 2014

I can live with Lavarnway ... IMO that it makes no sense to pay big money for McCann. The Red Sox will get in trouble if they take the attitude that they need the best player at each position. When a team has good chemistry and lead the league in wins should you bother with marginal upgrades? It is my contention that adding Tanaka and dealing Dempster is not a marginal upgrade. It is my contention that signing a younger and most likely healthier Abreu is not a marginal upgrade over Napoli.

Edited September 30, 2013 by marklmw

[User Name]

You're contradicting your point, because you don't know what impact Tanaka would have on team chemistry, and because he hasn't thrown a single pitch at the MLB level, you don't know whether he'd be a marginal upgrade to Dempster. Can't have it both ways.

[User Name]

Salty hit it just right. He'll hit FA and he will likely regress ridiculously. If his BABIP drops to even .330, his numbers would be piss poor. He's gonna get a big contract because of the dearth of talent at the position. And whomever signs him will regret it. The sox are better off getting a sup pick and letting him walk. They can see what Lavarnway could do in a full season. Chances are, he'll have a similar WAR to Salty in 2014

 

You can also be certain that a fair amount of those doubles were also aided by the BABIP God. He also walked a whopping 5 times more than last year in the same number of games, and struck out the same 139 times so i don't see the fantastically improved approach that is mentioned around here.

 

They don't have to spend big on McCann (i like the guy not because he's "The best at the position" but because he plays good D and is tough). They can go the cheap route with a guy like Ruiz, see what they have with Lavarnway and wait until Swihart's ready. What i don't want to see is them paying Salty big bucks only to watch him regress massively.

[marklmw]

You're contradicting your point, because you don't know what impact Tanaka would have on team chemistry, and because he hasn't thrown a single pitch at the MLB level, you don't know whether he'd be a marginal upgrade to Dempster. Can't have it both ways.

Starting Pitchers do not count towards team chemistry. They are a different bread. They come every 5 or 6 days and do their job ... otherwise they are playing golf.

[User Name]

Starting Pitchers do not count towards team chemistry. They are a different bread. They come every 5 or 6 days and do their job ... otherwise they are playing golf.

 

Two words: Josh Beckett.

[marklmw]

You can also be certain that a fair amount of those doubles were also aided by the BABIP God. He also walked a whopping 5 times more than last year in the same number of games, and struck out the same 139 times so i don't see the fantastically improved approach that is mentioned around here.

 

They don't have to spend big on McCann (i like the guy not because he's "The best at the position" but because he plays good D and is tough). They can go the cheap route with a guy like Ruiz, see what they have with Lavarnway and wait until Swihart's ready. What i don't want to see is them paying Salty big bucks only to watch him regress massively.

 

UN ... you and I but heads on some things but I respect your opinion non-the-less. Swihart is about 3 years away isn't he? At first I was thinking to re-sign Salty for 3 years but the more I think about it I would rather give him a QO and keep him for one more year to see how things go. If he signs with another club we pick up a high draft pick and go with Lavarnway and Ross. I believe that we can give QO's to Drew, Salty and Ellsbury and all three are likely to sign with another team. Best case senario is that Drew and Salty sign with another club and Ellsbury stays Boston for 2014.

[sk7326]

chemistry is a trailing indicator, not a leading one. McCann is tough, but body has been through a lot. And if by "tough" that includes the Jose Fernandez thing a couple weeks ago - that is weak sauce.

[User Name]

UN ... you and I but heads on some things but I respect your opinion non-the-less. Swihart is about 3 years away isn't he? At first I was thinking to re-sign Salty for 3 years but the more I think about it I would rather give him a QO and keep him for one more year to see how things go. If he signs with another club we pick up a high draft pick and go with Lavarnway and Ross. I believe that we can give QO's to Drew, Salty and Ellsbury and all three are likely to sign with another team. Best case senario is that Drew and Salty sign with another club and Ellsbury stays Boston for 2014.

 

This is a sensible position.

 

chemistry is a trailing indicator, not a leading one. McCann is tough, but body has been through a lot. And if by "tough" that includes the Jose Fernandez thing a couple weeks ago - that is weak sauce.

 

I mean physically tough. Like returning from shoulder surgery to hit 20 homers and play in over 100 games tough. And Fernandez was show-boating, and it's the catcher's obligation to protect his pitcher.

[sk7326]

This is a sensible position.

 

 

 

I mean physically tough. Like returning from shoulder surgery to hit 20 homers and play in over 100 games tough. And Fernandez was show-boating, and it's the catcher's obligation to protect his pitcher.

 

Fernandez seemed to expressing genuine shock at how he crushed that ... hard to act like you've been there when you almost certainly haven't. Taking off your mask at a kid acting like a kid is much more playing to the cameras than expressing joy at a "maybe not once in a lifetime but pretty close" act.