Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[jung]

More rumblings and rumors overnight. A report out of NY has the Skanks with more interest in Beltran than Ells. However I would have to think that Beltran's money would be more attractive than Ells money regardless of the difference in their power numbers, mainly because of age (36) for Beltran and those balky knees of his. The two guys really are not comparable unless you want to talk about both being outfielders.

 

If the where there is smoke there is fire thing means anything it does seem kind of odd that Ells seems to be the only guy out there in FA for whom the numbers seem to be going the wrong way at least from his perspective. People are tossing around term for Naps that would be tough to swallow and there appears to be enough teams with interest in Salty to help him get some sort of a deal that in the end will look like an overpay. Ells is the one really big FA out there for whom the buzz all seems to be headed south. This might mean he is actually the biggest fish in the pond after all and teams are all being very cagy about how they deal with their interest in him or it may mean the money is headed a bit south of expectations for Ells.

[User Name]

Apparently you haven't read anything about Robinson Cano.

[jung]

I really wasn't thinking about Cano because at the end of the day, I don't think he ends up leaving New York. Ells I think will draw legit offers from teams and offers that he will consider seriously. I don't think Cano leaves NY unless the Skanks virtually ignore him.

[User Name]

Yeah but Cano really damaged his own market with his stupid demands. Even if he wasn't going to leave NY, he won't even be able to make them bid against themselves, as they usually do. There will be no mystery team, since no one's going to even bid when his demands are so retarded.

[Palodios]

I really wasn't thinking about Cano because at the end of the day, I don't think he ends up leaving New York. Ells I think will draw legit offers from teams and offers that he will consider seriously. I don't think Cano leaves NY unless the Skanks virtually ignore him.

 

The deeper we get into the offseason, the less I think the Yanks want him back. They are comfortable giving him 180, and he wants 300+. That's a big gap. They seem to have their sights on a lot of free agents -- free agents that make sense to make their team better -- Tanaka, Balfour, Beltran, Drew. I would not be surprised if they try out the Red Sox's 2012 offseason... except with more expensive free agents.

[jung]

It will really be interesting to see how Cano pans out as you guys have mentioned. At the heart of it, ya' gotta' think these two NY guys that clearly have a friendship outside of their business relationship (J-zee and Cano) have just talked themselves into this fiasco. While the buzz about the whole J-zee thing was that professional management was going to handle Cano with J-zee doing....I don't know what....PR I guess, I think J-zee's PR influence has been greater than would be in Robby's best interest.

 

I think he ends up back in NY with his tail between his legs and Boras laughing his butt off.

[marklmw]

Yeah but Cano really damaged his own market with his stupid demands. Even if he wasn't going to leave NY, he won't even be able to make them bid against themselves, as they usually do. There will be no mystery team, since no one's going to even bid when his demands are so retarded.

 

UN ... when my wife comes home from a day of shopping and begins to show me all the things she has bought she always tells be what the original price was on the article of clothing ... with Cano it is no different. If you look at WAR as a method of valuing a player and should each unit of WAR be worth 5M then you can almost justify the 300M number for Cano as long as he stays healthy. Like A-rod the team buy insurance to cover such a contract ... it is another cost but I do not think that it counts towards the luxury tax.

[Bellhorn04]

UN ... when my wife comes home from a day of shopping and begins to show me all the things she has bought she always tells be what the original price was on the article of clothing ... with Cano it is no different. If you look at WAR as a method of valuing a player and should each unit of WAR be worth 5M then you can almost justify the 300M number for Cano as long as he stays healthy. Like A-rod the team buy insurance to cover such a contract ... it is another cost but I do not think that it counts towards the luxury tax.

 

You might be able to justify 25-30 million a year for 5 years, but that's about it. Cano is 31. He's not much younger than A-Rod was when he signed the 275 million deal that is currently making the Yankees feel like killing him.

[jung]

IMO once the Cano mess is finally resolved, Boras will be left wearing a cat that at the canary grin for weeks. By rights it should mark the end of J-zee's budding sports management career.....good riddance!!!!

[marklmw]

IMO once the Cano mess is finally resolved, Boras will be left wearing a cat that at the canary grin for weeks. By rights it should mark the end of J-zee's budding sports management career.....good riddance!!!!

 

Wow ... Jung ... did you ever think in a million years that one day you would be defending Boras on a Sox Forum?

[marklmw]

You might be able to justify 25-30 million a year for 5 years, but that's about it. Cano is 31. He's not much younger than A-Rod was when he signed the 275 million deal that is currently making the Yankees feel like killing him.

 

Is 1 point of WAR really worth 5M?

[jung]

Wow ... Jung ... did you ever think in a million years that one day you would be defending Boras on a Sox Forum?

 

No way......They still may come out of this smelling like roses but I get the impression that if Cano had stayed with Boras, he could just as easily have ended up in NY where he clearly wants to be and quite possibly would have gotten more money out of the Skanks than he is going to get sailing on the good ship J-zee.

 

I am just guessing but I would bet that Boras would have not turned this into a carnival event leaving Cano looking like somebody you just cannot take seriously. The Skanks look like they are waiting for an adult to show up and clear up this mess before they do anything. It is fun to watch as anything whacky out of NY that does not really have an impact on us one way or the other is fun to watch.

[Bellhorn04]

No way......They still may come out of this smelling like roses but I get the impression that if Cano had stayed with Boras, he could just as easily have ended up in NY where he clearly wants to be and quite possibly would have gotten more money out of the Skanks than he is going to get sailing on the good ship J-zee.

 

I am just guessing but I would bet that Boras would have not turned this into a carnival event leaving Cano looking like somebody you just cannot take seriously. The Skanks look like they are waiting for an adult to show up and clear up this mess before they do anything. It is fun to watch as anything whacky out of NY that does not really have an impact on us one way or the other is fun to watch.

 

Don't forget that Boras was part of the A-Rod opt-out fiasco though. A-Rod had to fire him and go crawling to the Yankees, who rewarded his crawling by bending over.

[Bellhorn04]

Is 1 point of WAR really worth 5M?

 

I don't know, but number-crunching is what the FanGraphs people do.

[marklmw]

I don't know, but number-crunching is what the FanGraphs people do.

 

This number must apply to FA's only. There are many players under club control with WAR's of 3 who obviously are not making 15M per.

[redsoxrules]

UN ... when my wife comes home from a day of shopping and begins to show me all the things she has bought she always tells be what the original price was on the article of clothing ... with Cano it is no different. If you look at WAR as a method of valuing a player and should each unit of WAR be worth 5M then you can almost justify the 300M number for Cano as long as he stays healthy. Like A-rod the team buy insurance to cover such a contract ... it is another cost but I do not think that it counts towards the luxury tax.

 

Cano won't be putting up a 6 WAR halfway through his contract.

[User Name]

This number must apply to FA's only. There are many players under club control with WAR's of 3 who obviously are not making 15M per.

 

Which is why Fangraphs creates their own dollar value for players based on their performance. WAR and actual player salaries obviously have no correlation.

[User Name]

Cano won't be putting up a 6 WAR halfway through his contract.

 

Exactly.

[marklmw]

Cano won't be putting up a 6 WAR halfway through his contract.

 

You are correct that for 300M 10 year contract Cano would have to produce an average WAR of 6.

Cano could realistically put up a WAR of 7-8 over the next 3 seasons ... should he have the drive and dedication to the game.

We also have to consider that a unit of WAR will increase in value each year going forward.

What if a unit of WAR increases by 10% per year over the next 10 years. I think it is safe to assume that player salaries will continue to grow at a 10% rate. Of course we can argue that assumption as well. So lets break it down by year. I am just playing devils advocate here. I would never give this contract to Cano.

 

Year Season WAR WARV Value CUM Value

1 2014 8 5M 40M 40M

2 2015 7.5 5.5M 41.25M 81.25M

3 2016 7.0 6.06M 42.35M 123.60M

4 2017 6.5 6.67M 43.33M 166.99M

5 2018 6.0 7.34M 44.02M 211.01M

6 2019 5.5 8.07M 44.41M 255.42M

7 2020 5.0 8.88M 44.39M 299.81M

8 2021 4.5 9.77M 43.96M 343.77M

9 2022 4.0 10.72M 42,87M 386.64M

10 2023 3.5 11.79M 41.27M 427.91M

 

You see Hal Steinbrener we are actually giving you a home town discount of about 130M. almost 1/3rd off Cano's true value.

[marklmw]

Even if we lower Cano's WAR by .5 - 1.0 year year he will still justify his contract as long as WAR values continue to rise at 10% per year. Hell, he might justify it at 5% annual increases.

 

Maybe I am in the wrong profession.

Edited November 26, 2013 by marklmw

[Bellhorn04]

Even if we lower Cano's WAR by .5 - 1.0 year year he will still justify his contract as long as WAR values continue to rise at 10% per year. Hell, he might justify it at 5% annual increases.

 

Maybe I am in the wrong profession.

 

The 10% annual inflation rate is much, much too high, mark. FanGraphs dollar value per WAR has only gone from about 4.5 million to 5 million over the last 5 years.

[marklmw]

The 10% annual inflation rate is much, much too high, mark. FanGraphs dollar value per WAR has only gone from about 4.5 million to 5 million over the last 5 years.

Thanks ... let me work on it then. I will use a 2% increase

[marklmw]

The 10% annual inflation rate is much, much too high, mark. FanGraphs dollar value per WAR has only gone from about 4.5 million to 5 million over the last 5 years.

Using an initial WAR of 7.5% for Cano's 2014 season and reducing his WAR by 5% per season his WAR in Season 10 will be 4.73.

Increasing the Value of WAR at factoring a 2% annual increase the WAR value grows to 5.96M in year 10.

What does this mean for Cano ... his 10 year value comes out to be: $324M

[redsoxrules]

You are correct that for 300M 10 year contract Cano would have to produce an average WAR of 6.

Cano could realistically put up a WAR of 7-8 over the next 3 seasons ... should he have the drive and dedication to the game.

We also have to consider that a unit of WAR will increase in value each year going forward.

What if a unit of WAR increases by 10% per year over the next 10 years. I think it is safe to assume that player salaries will continue to grow at a 10% rate. Of course we can argue that assumption as well. So lets break it down by year. I am just playing devils advocate here. I would never give this contract to Cano.

 

Year Season WAR WARV Value CUM Value

1 2014 8 5M 40M 40M

2 2015 7.5 5.5M 41.25M 81.25M

3 2016 7.0 6.06M 42.35M 123.60M

4 2017 6.5 6.67M 43.33M 166.99M

5 2018 6.0 7.34M 44.02M 211.01M

6 2019 5.5 8.07M 44.41M 255.42M

7 2020 5.0 8.88M 44.39M 299.81M

8 2021 4.5 9.77M 43.96M 343.77M

9 2022 4.0 10.72M 42,87M 386.64M

10 2023 3.5 11.79M 41.27M 427.91M

 

You see Hal Steinbrener we are actually giving you a home town discount of about 130M. almost 1/3rd off Cano's true value.

 

I highly doubt Cano touches over 7 for WAR. He's just about done his peak seasons

[marklmw]

I highly doubt Cano touches over 7 for WAR. He's just about done his peak seasons

 

Well I was off on the annual % rate increase used for WAR. I also reduced Cano at 5% per year. Can still have 2-3 high performance years in him

[User Name]

Using an initial WAR of 7.5% for Cano's 2014 season and reducing his WAR by 5% per season his WAR in Season 10 will be 4.73.

Increasing the Value of WAR at factoring a 2% annual increase the WAR value grows to 5.96M in year 10.

What does this mean for Cano ... his 10 year value comes out to be: $324M

 

Except that this is never how it works. You're not accounting for the possibility of injury/sudden decline/changes in overall offensive standards. It's almost impossible for Cano to remain healthy/productive/elite for all those years.

 

For all you criticized the Pedroia signing, because of his skillset and the overall dollar value of the contract (both in real terms and reasonable projections based on FG's dollar value) he's much more likely to live up to his contract than the stupid one (and it's going to be a hell of a lot smaller than 10/310) Cano eventually gets.

[marklmw]

Except that this is never how it works. You're not accounting for the possibility of injury/sudden decline/changes in overall offensive standards. It's almost impossible for Cano to remain healthy/productive/elite for all those years.

 

For all you criticized the Pedroia signing, because of his skillset and the overall dollar value of the contract (both in real terms and reasonable projections based on FG's dollar value) he's much more likely to live up to his contract than the stupid one (and it's going to be a hell of a lot smaller than 10/310) Cano eventually gets.

 

You are correct UN ... In fact I was the one that argued that signing Pedroia to age 38 was a mistake but not any longer. Even if Pedroia produces to age 36 and becomes useless thereafter he will have earned his money.

[jung]

There is no discounting what Pedey means to the Sox fan either. Even if Pedey fell apart physically for the last two years of his career, he would likely set records for fasted wheelchair down the first base line and we all know that.

[SoxSport]

Cano won't be putting up a 6 WAR halfway through his contract.

 

Cano's stats are somewhat inflated by Yankee Stadium. It's called the park factor, and something other teams have to consider in valuing Cano for their parks. He should get his best price from the Yankees.

 

The same is true for McCann--or any LHd hitter. McCann is worth more money playing in Yankee stadium than, let's say, Fenway Park. Put another way, the Yankees paid a premium to get him. They did the same for Damon years ago.

[marklmw]

Cano's stats are somewhat inflated by Yankee Stadium. It's called the park factor, and something other teams have to consider in valuing Cano for their parks. He should get his best price from the Yankees.

 

The same is true for McCann--or any LHd hitter. McCann is worth more money playing in Yankee stadium than, let's say, Fenway Park. Put another way, the Yankees paid a premium to get him. They did the same for Damon years ago.

 

Cano hit more HR's away than at home last season ... but I do agree that the stadium is made for him