Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[User Name]

It's actually becoming more and more likely if reports are to be believed. It seems that no one's actually willing to break the bank on Ellsbury, and no one should be.

[jung]

Gonna be laughing my head off next year when Ellsbury and JBJ are both on the roster at the expense of one of Gomes and Nava.

 

You are making it sound like it is just this simply and it is not. It is the years for Ells even more than the money that the pragmatic BC will find hard to swallow and there is nothing about the trade of off JBJ plus Ells vs JBJ, Gomes and Nava that will make that easier to swallow.

 

If the Sox could have one more year of Ells I would expect they would do almost anything to get it as it fits nicely with the end of Lester's contract...but a short term deal of any kind for Ells is not going to happen under any circumstances.

Edited November 18, 2013 by jung

[marklmw]

Ellsbury wants a life changing deal - Boras is the best in the business at delivering one. If Ellsbury wants to take a little less to stay with Boston, it's his prerogative, but I do not expect him to order Boras to go in that direction.

Sorry to say but any deal that Ellsbury signs that is 5+ years will be life changing. Could be for 17M per and will still be life changing. Boras works for Ellsbury not the other way around.

[SoxSport]

Agents have a big incentive to get the top dollar--regardless of which team gets the player. They work on commission. The emotional factor is only with the player. Agents usually steer a player towards the maximum contract; and more often than not, the player listens to the agent.

[sk7326]

I can't admire BC's pragmatism on the one hand and then expect him to swim against a tide that must flow that way in his own mind on the other. At the end of the day that is likely what will create a gap in what the Sox offer and what Ells and Boras can get in the open market. Plus for an agent, any reduction in the player's salary probably hits him harder than it hits the player in terms of how the agent views it versus how the player views it. Clearly the agent must adhere to the player's wishes. But the chance of Boras "recommending" that Ells take less money from anybody is likely none and none...let alone slim and none.

 

Clearly we know where Boras' incentives are. But a guy doesn't retain clients by giving them poor counsel or work - and certainly absorbing the PR hit for his client is part of the gig. If Ellsbury wants to go somewhere, it's on him. I tend to be relatively unsentimental here - the Sox will have a quality CF either way.

[redsoxrules]

Agents have a big incentive to get the top dollar--regardless of which team gets the player. They work on commission. The emotional factor is only with the player. Agents usually steer a player towards the maximum contract; and more often than not, the player listens to the agent.

 

If the player wants to play for a certain team he's not going to listen to the agent to take top dollar. We've seen this in the past.

[redsoxrules]

It's actually becoming more and more likely if reports are to be believed. It seems that no one's actually willing to break the bank on Ellsbury, and no one should be.

 

I mentioned this earlier in this thread. If no one is breaking the bank he could be a red sox next year.

[Palodios]

It's actually becoming more and more likely if reports are to be believed. It seems that no one's actually willing to break the bank on Ellsbury, and no one should be.

 

I always found it extremely confusing that the Red Sox weren't able to trade for a solid starter using Ellsbury as a chip, but somehow he was worth a 150 million. How can a guy be worth insane money, but doesn't have insane trade value?

[Dojji]

You are making it sound like it is just this simply and it is not. It is the years for Ells even more than the money that the pragmatic BC will find hard to swallow and there is nothing about the trade of off JBJ plus Ells vs JBJ, Gomes and Nava that will make that easier to swallow.

 

If the Sox could have one more year of Ells I would expect they would do almost anything to get it as it fits nicely with the end of Lester's contract...but a short term deal of any kind for Ells is not going to happen under any circumstances.

 

I think you're overthinking it. You've built these arguments up in your mind until they're bigger than they should be. That's the way with consensus, people go out of their way to agree with each other and accidentally start going over the top on each other until it creates an exaggerated groupthink that resembles reality only incidentally.

 

you're right that it is risky to retain Ellsbury, but the risks you've created are not as drastic as you're making them out to be. He's going into his age 30 season, not his age 40 season, for pity's sake. a 5-6 year contract isn't going to be the world-ending bust that people have decided it will be. He's a pretty decent bet to retain most of his value through year 5.

[sk7326]

I always found it extremely confusing that the Red Sox weren't able to trade for a solid starter using Ellsbury as a chip, but somehow he was worth a 150 million. How can a guy be worth insane money, but doesn't have insane trade value?

 

I think it was the

[redsoxrules]

I think you're overthinking it. You've built these arguments up in your mind until they're bigger than they should be. That's the way with consensus, people go out of their way to agree with each other and accidentally start going over the top on each other until it creates an exaggerated groupthink that resembles reality only incidentally.

 

you're right that it is risky to retain Ellsbury, but the risks you've created are not as drastic as you're making them out to be. He's going into his age 30 season, not his age 40 season, for pity's sake. a 5-6 year contract isn't going to be the world-ending bust that people have decided it will be. He's a pretty decent bet to retain most of his value through year 5.

 

No he's not. His game is around speed and he'll lose that quicker than if he had power.

Do we have to mention CC again?

As a matter of fact CC at the time he signed that massive contract had the better numbers and durability. Did you agree when they signed CC?

[Dojji]

I always found it extremely confusing that the Red Sox weren't able to trade for a solid starter using Ellsbury as a chip, but somehow he was worth a 150 million. How can a guy be worth insane money, but doesn't have insane trade value?

 

Why would they trade Ellsbury at any point during his run here? The idea that we need to maximize our return by trading all our players at their peaks is only part of the picture -- at some point that equation needs to break down and you need to be worried about maximizing the talent on your roster, rather than playing the game of numbers as if the max return for any one player is the most important consideration at all times.

[Dojji]

No he's not. His game is around speed and he'll lose that quicker than if he had power.

Do we have to mention CC again?

 

 

yes, by all means base your entire argument around one failed example. There's a number of speed players who retain their usefulness deep into their 30's, replacing timing and experience for what they lose in terms of natural talent. Victorino for one. Damon for another. Lofton for a third. It's not like these guys all die and get burried the minute the clock strikes 30 the way Crawford did

 

As a matter of fact CC at the time he signed that massive contract had the better numbers and durability. Did you agree when they signed CC?

 

As a matter of fact I did not, because I didn't think Crawford was good value as a corner outfielder. However, predicting Ellsbury bombs because of an unreasonable, unpredictable event like the complete Crawford flop isn't sane. He's already proven he can perform here in ways that Crawford did not. And need I remind you, we've had trouble in the past finding centerfielders that can thrive here. Ellsbury being one is not something I'm prepared to give up on lightly.

[Dojji]

You guys want to know a secret?

 

I don't care that much about Jacoby Ellsbury. I like him, and I think he's a critical part of the team, but am I going to lose a lot of sleep if JBJ is playing CF next year? No. No, it'll probably be fine really.

 

What I care about is groupthink. there's a difference between consensus and groupthink, and I've learned to tell the difference in my own way. People have a tendency to want to be agreed with, and when consensus happens a tendency exists to start outdoing each other in proclaiming agreement with that consensus. And when the group reaches a certain level of consensus rational thought starts being replaced by a feedback loop, which starts spiraling out of control and creates a mob mentality.

 

I don't like to see that starting to happen to the impressions of a player who's given us good service over the years and helped lead us to two World Series. And I will fight it every time I see it happening and feel it goes too far. I've fallen on this sword many times in the past and I will again. This time it happens to be Ellsbury, who knows who the heck it'll be next year, Uehara, Victorino, or even Ortiz for all we know. but when the groupthink starts to surpass common sense and people stop giving any consideration to the other side in an argument with two sides, expect me to move in and do my rather loopy, scatterbrained best to amend the problem. Every time.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Dojji

[redsoxrules]

Lofton never swipped over 32 bases once he hit 32. Damon was converted to a corner outfielder. Damon also had power.

[redsoxrules]

And victorino is a 13-15 Mil a year player. Around what Ellsbury should make. Thanks for proving my point.

[Dojji]

And if you overpay 2-3 million a year to keep a better player around in CF than you can find on the free agent market under normal conditions, exactly why is that such a horrible thing?

'

You and I both know that by conventional measures of value, Victorino was underpaid last year. He provided a career best 6.2 WAR at a very reasonable price tag by free agency standards. We got our money's worth and more there, I'd be all for making another similar move if a similar player -- or especially a younger player who we already know is a fit with team chemistry -- came available on the open market.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Dojji

[redsoxrules]

And if you overpay 2-3 million a year to keep a better player around in CF than you can find on the free agent market under normal conditions, exactly why is that such a horrible thing?

'

You and I both know that by conventional measures of value, Victorino was underpaid last year.

 

If the deal is for 4-5 years then it's fine because if he does decline fast it will only hurt you for a year or so. But if you go 7 he hurts your for more than just a couple mil a year, then it becomes 50-60 Mil.

[Dojji]

I don't think that Ellsbury "declining fast" is the risk you're making it out to be -- or the real reason you're concerned about retaining him.

 

Everyone wants the new toy. It's natural. but a team that has a player with an elite skillset in a highly applicable area generally doesn't throw that player away just because of the new toy. This plays into years-old issues between Ellsbury and the fanbase, and possibly Ellsbury and the team as well. There's been a rather guarded take on Ellsbury from the moment he ran into Beltre and smashed his ribs in 09, that's just a fact. The lion's share of the eagerness to move on, therefore, lies in the hope that we can have a centerfielder next year who is not Jacoby Ellsbury. One without some of the bad memories Ellsbury's picked up while he's bee

 

I'm sure the pick helps, but we don't even know what that pick will turn into. Draft picks are a crapshoot making that argument a minor factor at best. The money helps, but it's mostly an excuse to hide behind -- that money comes out of the FO's profit margins, if they want to spend it, it's there to be spent. I'd call that a nonfactor for the most part, except for perhaps how it plays into our pet theories about the guys we think the team should sign.

 

No, get down to meat of it, the real issue is that years-old antipathy for Ellsbury -- not really a hatred even, more of an unexpected ambivalence as near as I can determine. Certainly we should be more excited to have a player of that skill level than it turns out we are. The lion's share of the eagerness to move on, therefore, lies in the hope that we can have a centerfielder next year who is not Jacoby Ellsbury. One without some of the bad memories Ellsbury's picked up while he's been here. Draw your own reasonings on why, all of them are at least partly applicable, and none of them fully explain the issues that happen on a visceral level between a fanbase and a player.

 

The mere fact that we don't know whether or not JBJ has the same warts is the real core reason people are so anxious to move on here, whether they'll admit it or are even aware of it or not. And it's not a very good argument.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Dojji

[jung]

if the deal is for 4-5 years then it's fine because if he does decline fast it will only hurt you for a year or so. But if you go 7 he hurts your for more than just a couple mil a year, then it becomes 50-60 Mil.

 

 

I think you are right and I also think some team, maybe more than one is going to go out to 6 if not 7 years. Somebody will do it....I am convinced.

[redsoxrules]

I'm not crazy about the new toy. If money had nothing to do with this I'd want Ells as the starting CF next year.

You have to admit it would be quite a gamble to give Ells CC type contract.

[Dojji]

I'm not crazy about the new toy. If money had nothing to do with this I'd want Ells as the starting CF next year.

You have to admit it would be quite a gamble to give Ells CC type contract.

 

No one is going to give Ellsbury a CC type contract. Put simply he hasn't earned it. Crawford was consistently effective for many years and cashed in in a low-talent market -- and had a big market team with a major hard-on for him driving up the price to boot. None of these factors necessarily apply to Ellsbury.

 

Everyone's terrified of the big payout Ellsbury's going to get because his agent asks for 10 to get 5. No one is going to bite on 6-7 years for Ellsbury because people see too many object lessons floating around the league on what happens when you commit to talent-first guys and they start to lose that elite edge in raw skill, and Ellsbury doesn't have the track record of durability or consistently to suggest that he's sufficiently different to tempt teams to ignore these lessons. You've given all the reasons why yourselves.

 

I see ellsbury coming down with a 5 year contract in the 15-18 million dollar AAV range and I suspect I may be aiming high That's a price the team has to think about matching if they can do it without sacrificing too many other priorities.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Dojji

[User Name]

You guys want to know a secret?

 

I don't care that much about Jacoby Ellsbury. I like him, and I think he's a critical part of the team, but am I going to lose a lot of sleep if JBJ is playing CF next year? No. No, it'll probably be fine really.

 

What I care about is groupthink. there's a difference between consensus and groupthink, and I've learned to tell the difference in my own way. People have a tendency to want to be agreed with, and when consensus happens a tendency exists to start outdoing each other in proclaiming agreement with that consensus. And when the group reaches a certain level of consensus rational thought starts being replaced by a feedback loop, which starts spiraling out of control and creates a mob mentality.

 

I don't like to see that starting to happen to the impressions of a player who's given us good service over the years and helped lead us to two World Series. And I will fight it every time I see it happening and feel it goes too far. I've fallen on this sword many times in the past and I will again. This time it happens to be Ellsbury, who knows who the heck it'll be next year, Uehara, Victorino, or even Ortiz for all we know. but when the groupthink starts to surpass common sense and people stop giving any consideration to the other side in an argument with two sides, expect me to move in and do my rather loopy, scatterbrained best to amend the problem. Every time.

 

So what you're saying is that the whole point of your argument is to be mr. contrarian? I'm flabbergasted.

[User Name]

I don't think that Ellsbury "declining fast" is the risk you're making it out to be -- or the real reason you're concerned about retaining him.

 

Everyone wants the new toy. It's natural. but a team that has a player with an elite skillset in a highly applicable area generally doesn't throw that player away just because of the new toy. This plays into years-old issues between Ellsbury and the fanbase, and possibly Ellsbury and the team as well. There's been a rather guarded take on Ellsbury from the moment he ran into Beltre and smashed his ribs in 09, that's just a fact. The lion's share of the eagerness to move on, therefore, lies in the hope that we can have a centerfielder next year who is not Jacoby Ellsbury. One without some of the bad memories Ellsbury's picked up while he's bee

 

I'm sure the pick helps, but we don't even know what that pick will turn into. Draft picks are a crapshoot making that argument a minor factor at best. The money helps, but it's mostly an excuse to hide behind -- that money comes out of the FO's profit margins, if they want to spend it, it's there to be spent. I'd call that a nonfactor for the most part, except for perhaps how it plays into our pet theories about the guys we think the team should sign.

 

No, get down to meat of it, the real issue is that years-old antipathy for Ellsbury -- not really a hatred even, more of an unexpected ambivalence as near as I can determine. Certainly we should be more excited to have a player of that skill level than it turns out we are. The lion's share of the eagerness to move on, therefore, lies in the hope that we can have a centerfielder next year who is not Jacoby Ellsbury. One without some of the bad memories Ellsbury's picked up while he's been here. Draw your own reasonings on why, all of them are at least partly applicable, and none of them fully explain the issues that happen on a visceral level between a fanbase and a player.

 

The mere fact that we don't know whether or not JBJ has the same warts is the real core reason people are so anxious to move on here, whether they'll admit it or are even aware of it or not. And it's not a very good argument.

 

This post is an enormous amount of ******** you are making up in order to validate your own "me vs. the world" approach to this argument. You don't know the exact thought process anyone here has used to reach their conclusions on Ellsbury other than your own. To put it simply, you should be using Occam's razor if you want to do some "guesswork" on people's thought processes. You are twisting what everyone has said into an argument that doesn't exist.

 

Talksox: "I'd like Ellsbury back, but only at market value, since there are concerns about his skillset declining and his durability. I'd go as high as 5/90-100 to retain him since he was an integral part of two WS teams and has elite speed."

 

Dojji: "You all hate Ellsbury and the Sox should pay out the ass to retain him, because no matter how many examples of players with his same skillset declining quickly are brought up, i need to be on the other side of the argument just to prove a point".

 

Can you see the silliness of what you're doing here Dojji?

Edited November 18, 2013 by User Name?

[a700hitter]

Ellsbury was on 2 championship teams. He is the fastest guy that I have seen in a Red Sox uni in my lifetime. I love the element of elite speed that he brings to the game. I would be happy to keep him with the Red Sox. I don't really care much about extra draft picks. That doesn't excite me anywhere near the excitement that I feel when Ells hits one in the gap or down the line or when he takes off to steal second base.

[User Name]

Funny, since Ellsbury was an extra pick.

[marklmw]

Ellsbury was on 2 championship teams. He is the fastest guy that I have seen in a Red Sox uni in my lifetime. I love the element of elite speed that he brings to the game. I would be happy to keep him with the Red Sox. I don't really care much about extra draft picks. That doesn't excite me anywhere near the excitement that I feel when Ells hits one in the gap or down the line or when he takes off to steal second base.

I agree ... and the FO would love to have him back but at the right price. An outfield of JBJ, Jacoby & Victorino would be insane ... easily the best defensive outfield in MLB. Add 6-8M to Jacoby's contract (what did he earn in 2013) subtract 5 million by dealing Gomes, subtract 14M by dealing Dempster ... etc. I agree with most of you that the thing with Ellsbury is that it is all about the years. If he can be happy with a 5 year contract to stay in Boston. Although I do not see Jacoby declining as some do, eventually you can move JBJ to Center while Ellsbury will still steal bases playing in left. Ellsbury really should retire in a Sox uni. Word is however that Texas is looking long and hard at Jacoby. IMO ... some team is going to give him a 6-7 year deal that will be hard for Boston to match. And remember this folks ... you heard it time and again from me ... Ells will mash 20+ HR's next season. And you can all remind me if I am wrong.

[a700hitter]

Hopefully, he doesn't end up with the Skanks.

[marklmw]

Hopefully, he doesn't end up with the Skanks.

He will mash 25 if he signs with the Shanks.

[dupree]

Hopefully, he doesn't end up with the Skanks.

As bad as i hate to think it. I see the Spanks as the dark horse to sign Ells. Alot of talk of Seattle and Texas wanting him but the Spanks have seen Ells alot and stealing bases all over them and with Granderson a FA they could make a big run at Ells.