Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[rjortiz]

Ellsbury has arguably been the most valuable player for the Red Sox this year. He has a 4.7 WAR, and is projected to finish the season at 5.5. Jackie Bradley Jr. is a promising young player, but banking on him to be more than a two win player in his first full year might be unrealistic. However, Ellsbury is going to land a massive contract, with some projecting him to land six or seven years at $20 million per year. I think he'll only get five, but that's still a huge commitment to make.

 

A big chunk of Ellsbury's value comes from his baserunning and defensive ability. His UZR/150 comes in at 11.3, and he's comfortably in first place in BsR, adding 8.8 runs on the bases. He's also been an above average hitting CF, posting a solid 113 wRC+. The big problem with players like Ellsbury is that speed and defense tends to peak early in careers. I think he's got Michael Bourn/Carl Crawford written all over him. Bourn has seen his UZR numbers fall way off from what they where in 2012, and we all know what happened with Crawford. They haven't been useless players this year, but Cleveland is only paying Bourn $12 million, and Crawford is still overpaid with 4 years to go.

 

I'd expect to see a decline in his fielding and baserunning numbers, and recent history suggests that it's probable that it could happen as soon as next year. He's going to have to hit more to make up for the loss in value. Even with his fluke 2011 season, he has a career 109 wRC+, which is above average, but it's not going to carry him when his legs start to go. Plus, with a loss in speed it's likely that his BABIP will drop to closer to the league average as he won't be able to leg out infield hits further diminishing his value.

 

I think betting on a player turning 30 whose value is tied to his legs is a bad investment, especially if it's anywhere near the rumored amounts that have been floating around. I'd roll the dice on Bradley Jr. and use the savings to upgrade the team elsewhere.

Edited August 19, 2013 by rjortiz

[marklmw]

Ellsbury has arguably been the most valuable player for the Red Sox this year. He has a 4.7 WAR, and is projected to finish the season at 5.5. Jackie Bradley Jr. is a promising young player, but banking on him to be more than a two win player in his first full year might be unrealistic. However, Ellsbury is going to land a massive contract, with some projecting him to land six or seven years at $20 million per year. I think he'll only get five, but that's still a huge commitment to make.

 

A big chunk of Ellsbury's value comes from his baserunning and defensive ability. His UZR/150 comes in at 11.3, and he's comfortably in first place in BsR, adding 8.8 runs on the bases. He's also been an above average hitting CF, posting a solid 113 wRC+. The big problem with players like Ellsbury is that speed and defense tends to peak early in careers. I think he's got Michael Bourn/Carl Crawford written all over him. Bourn has seen his UZR numbers fall way off from what they where in 2012, and we all know what happened with Crawford. They haven't been useless players this year, but Cleveland is only paying Bourn $12 million, and Crawford is still overpaid with 4 years to go.

 

I'd expect to see a decline in his fielding and baserunning numbers, and recent history suggests that it's probable that it could happen as soon as next year. He's going to have to hit more to make up for the loss in value. Even with his fluke 2011 season, he has a career 109 wRC+, which is above average, but it's not going to carry him when his legs start to go. Plus, with a loss in speed it's likely that his BABIP will drop to closer to the league average as he won't be able to leg out infield hits further diminishing his value.

 

I think betting on a player turning 30 whose value is tied to his legs is a bad investment, especially if it's anywhere near the rumored amounts that have been floating around. I'd roll the dice on Bradley Jr. and use the savings to upgrade the team elsewhere.

 

As of today Ellsbury is 29. Look up some players who were gifted speed wise ... check out their numbers from age 30 - 36. You will be surprised. Also, Ellsbury can hit a little and from what I have seen he does not leg out to many infield hits nor bunt for hits. He is not a slap hitter. His power numbers should increase with age also Barry Bonds, and if they move him to left it will save his legs to steal more and hit more. It will be a big mistake to let him go even at 20m per. Dice K cost the Sox 100m over 5 years and we got very little for it. Ellsbury has much more upside than Crawford does now. The Sox will be trimming a little off payroll in the off season. They might be able to get rid of Dempster for maybe half his cost ... that is 7m alone ... keep Ellsbury.

[mvp 78]

No. He's good for a fantasy team, he's too expensive in real life.

[mvp 78]

Also, Ellsbury can hit a little and from what I have seen he does not leg out to many infield hits nor bunt for hits. He is not a slap hitter. His power numbers should increase with age also Barry Bonds, and if they move him to left it will save his legs to steal more and hit more. It will be a big mistake to let him go even at 20m per.

 

Barry Bonds? WTF?

[Northern Star]

We need to go after a bona fide #5 hitter. So, no.

[MJantomaso]

As of today Ellsbury is 29. Look up some players who were gifted speed wise ... check out their numbers from age 30 - 36. You will be surprised. Also, Ellsbury can hit a little and from what I have seen he does not leg out to many infield hits nor bunt for hits. He is not a slap hitter. His power numbers should increase with age also Barry Bonds, and if they move him to left it will save his legs to steal more and hit more. It will be a big mistake to let him go even at 20m per. Dice K cost the Sox 100m over 5 years and we got very little for it. Ellsbury has much more upside than Crawford does now. The Sox will be trimming a little off payroll in the off season. They might be able to get rid of Dempster for maybe half his cost ... that is 7m alone ... keep Ellsbury.

 

Barry Bonds? The f***? I guess if we start feeding him massive amounts of D-BOL...

[SCM33]

As of today Ellsbury is 29. Look up some players who were gifted speed wise ... check out their numbers from age 30 - 36. You will be surprised. Also, Ellsbury can hit a little and from what I have seen he does not leg out to many infield hits nor bunt for hits. He is not a slap hitter. His power numbers should increase with age also Barry Bonds, and if they move him to left it will save his legs to steal more and hit more. It will be a big mistake to let him go even at 20m per. Dice K cost the Sox 100m over 5 years and we got very little for it. Ellsbury has much more upside than Crawford does now. The Sox will be trimming a little off payroll in the off season. They might be able to get rid of Dempster for maybe half his cost ... that is 7m alone ... keep Ellsbury.

 

Barry Bonds? Id compare him more to Kenny Lofton. Ellsbury is not coming back. There has literally been zero effort or discussion about the possibility of him returning. The Redsox don't want him back and Boras has already priced him out of Boston. Its not going to happen, regardless of how talented he is.

[rjortiz]

As of today Ellsbury is 29. Look up some players who were gifted speed wise ... check out their numbers from age 30 - 36. You will be surprised. Also, Ellsbury can hit a little and from what I have seen he does not leg out to many infield hits nor bunt for hits. He is not a slap hitter. His power numbers should increase with age also Barry Bonds, and if they move him to left it will save his legs to steal more and hit more. It will be a big mistake to let him go even at 20m per. Dice K cost the Sox 100m over 5 years and we got very little for it. Ellsbury has much more upside than Crawford does now. The Sox will be trimming a little off payroll in the off season. They might be able to get rid of Dempster for maybe half his cost ... that is 7m alone ... keep Ellsbury.

 

A few points:

 

1) He'll be 30 when his contract kicks in

2) Speed peaks early, as does defense. Can you be more specific about the gifted speed players you are talking about?

3) Power also declines with age

4) Barry Bonds? What does that have to do with anything?

5) If he moves to LF, it will decrease his value even further. He has to cross a higher bar offensively in LF.

6) Dice-K was a pitcher. Plus, he was 27 when he signed that deal. I have no idea what that has to do with Ellsbury. Are you trying to say that giving large contracts are risky propositions?

7) No one is arguing that Ellsbury has less upside than Crawford. I used Crawford as an example to show that giving big contracts to players whose value primarily comes from their legs is a risky proposition.

[Orange Juiced]

The answer, without any sense of the contract parameters, is impossible to give. For a 4/60 contract? Obviously the answer is yes. For a 6/132 contract? Obviously the answer is no. Since neither of those is likely and the real contract is going to be something in-between, and because we have no idea what it will actually look like, we can't really answer the question. The closer it is to 4/60 I'd say there is a better shot at it; the closer it is to 6/132 I'd say there is a better shot against it. But where that number actually settles down to I have no idea.

 

My gut tells me he's definitely gone. I think Boras will get him something like 6/120 and that's way too rich for my taste, especially given the potential of his in-house replacement, JBJ.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

A few points:

 

1) He'll be 30 when his contract kicks in

2) Speed peaks early, as does defense. Can you be more specific about the gifted speed players you are talking about?

3) Power also declines with age

4) Barry Bonds? What does that have to do with anything?

5) If he moves to LF, it will decrease his value even further. He has to cross a higher bar offensively in LF.

6) Dice-K was a pitcher. Plus, he was 27 when he signed that deal. I have no idea what that has to do with Ellsbury. Are you trying to say that giving large contracts are risky propositions?

7) No one is arguing that Ellsbury has less upside than Crawford. I used Crawford as an example to show that giving big contracts to players whose value primarily comes from their legs is a risky proposition.

 

These are very good points rjortiz. I know marklmw would have a tough time arguing these points. If he somehow manages to make valid arguments to most of your points, I'll officially be on the bandwagon to keep Ells. For right now though, I'm all for letting him walk. I like Ellsbury, but I'm not paying him for that talent he's going to give us. It's going to be way too much.

[marklmw]

My point is that Barry Bonds gained power numbers with age. Ok ... not a good example but Ellsbury is 30 ... he is near his peak ... he is strong and fast. Look at numbers for Rickey Henderson ... did he slow down at age 30? No. You are all wrong about Ellsbury ... he is worth 100 - 110 / 6. Since we really do not know his market value yet it is hard to say what to do with him. Was Josh Hamilton a good signing for the Angels? Was Pujols a good signing for the Angels? Was Crawford or Gonzalez good signings for Boston? Was Cabrera a great signing for Detroit ... finally we get a yes.

Would Ellsbury be worth a 110 / 6 contract if he averaged a WAR of 5.0 - 6.0 over the next 6 years?

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

My point is that Barry Bonds gained power numbers with age. Ok ... not a good example but Ellsbury is 30

 

I don't even know what you were thinking when you compared Bonds to Ellsbury, don't do that again.

 

... he is near his peak ... he is strong and fast.

 

He's fast, no one will disagree with you. Where do you get strong from though? Other than 2011, which screams fluke, what power does he have?

 

Look at numbers for Rickey Henderson ... did he slow down at age 30? No.

 

Imo, this is just as ridiculous as comparing him to Bonds. Henderson made a career out of stealing bases. He still holds the record for most steals. Compare him to another player that's playing now.

 

You are all wrong about Ellsbury ... he is worth 100 - 110 / 6

.

 

That price is way too much for Ellsbury. He doesn't deserve all that money. He'll probably get it, and I hope it's not from us. He's still a good player, but from what I've seen from 2007 and up that does not add up to a 100 million dollar contract.

 

Since we really do not know his market value yet it is hard to say what to do with him. Was Josh Hamilton a good signing for the Angels? Was Pujols a good signing for the Angels? Was Crawford or Gonzalez good signings for Boston? Was Cabrera a great signing for Detroit ... finally we get a yes.

 

This doesn't really help your point.

 

Would Ellsbury be worth a 110 / 6 contract if he averaged a WAR of 5.0 - 6.0 over the next 6 years?

 

He won't.

[mvp 78]

Ricky Henderson averaged a .401 OBP, almost a full 50 points better than Ellsbury. Ells is no Bonds and he is no Henderson.

[marklmw]

My point is that Barry Bonds gained power numbers with age. Ok ... not a good example but Ellsbury is 30

 

I don't even know what you were thinking when you compared Bonds to Ellsbury, don't do that again.

 

 

 

He's fast, no one will disagree with you. Where do you get strong from though? Other than 2011, which screams fluke, what power does he have?

 

 

 

Imo, this is just as ridiculous as comparing him to Bonds. Henderson made a career out of stealing bases. He still holds the record for most steals. Compare him to another player that's playing now.

 

.

 

That price is way too much for Ellsbury. He doesn't deserve all that money. He'll probably get it, and I hope it's not from us. He's still a good player, but from what I've seen from 2007 and up that does not add up to a 100 million dollar contract.

 

 

 

This doesn't really help your point.

 

 

 

He won't.

 

Not only will Ellsbury average a Batting WAR of 5.0 to 5.5 over the next 5 seasons but he will average a fielding WAR of 1 to 1.5. Enough said. Furthermore Ellsbury is going to Average 25 hr's as well as 35 sb's Write it in stone.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Ricky Henderson averaged a .401 OBP, almost a full 50 points better than Ellsbury. Ells is no Bonds and he is no Henderson.

 

He the audacity to compare HOF Henderson to Ellsbury LOL.

 

"Oooooooh that is just SO DISRESPECTFUL"

[mvp 78]

Uh, he only has 7 so far this year.

 

You're hopelessly in love with Ells.

[marklmw]

Ricky Henderson averaged a .401 OBP, almost a full 50 points better than Ellsbury. Ells is no Bonds and he is no Henderson.

 

Look around you man ... Ellsbury is one of the premier players in the game both offensively and defensively and you are too blind to see it. Maybe he needs to play for another team to wake you up. The numbers do not lie.

[rjortiz]

My point is that Barry Bonds gained power numbers with age. Ok ... not a good example but Ellsbury is 30 ... he is near his peak ... he is strong and fast. Look at numbers for Rickey Henderson ... did he slow down at age 30? No. You are all wrong about Ellsbury ... he is worth 100 - 110 / 6. Since we really do not know his market value yet it is hard to say what to do with him. Was Josh Hamilton a good signing for the Angels? Was Pujols a good signing for the Angels? Was Crawford or Gonzalez good signings for Boston? Was Cabrera a great signing for Detroit ... finally we get a yes.

Would Ellsbury be worth a 110 / 6 contract if he averaged a WAR of 5.0 - 6.0 over the next 6 years?

 

I hate to be mean, but I have no idea what to say to this. This is an excruciatingly awful argument.

[rjortiz]

Just read his last two posts. This guy has to be a troll.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Not only will Ellsbury average a Batting WAR of 5.0 to 5.5 over the next 5 seasons but he will average a fielding WAR of 1 to 1.5. Enough said. Furthermore Ellsbury is going to Average 25 hr's as well as 35 sb's Write it in stone.

 

You must be out of your mind

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Look around you man ... Ellsbury is one of the premier players in the game both offensively and defensively and you are too blind to see it. Maybe he needs to play for another team to wake you up. The numbers do not lie.

 

Alright, I'm done arguing.

[marklmw]

Alright, I'm done arguing.

 

Ok .. how about a compromise ... Sox sign Jose Abreu and put JBJ in Center ... let Ellsbury walk. On second thought ... sign Abreu and Ellsbury

Edited August 20, 2013 by marklmw

[Orange Juiced]

 

Not only will Ellsbury average a Batting WAR of 5.0 to 5.5 over the next 5 seasons but he will average a fielding WAR of 1 to 1.5. Enough said. Furthermore Ellsbury is going to Average 25 hr's as well as 35 sb's Write it in stone.

 

25-35 homers? Put the flask down, man. He should retain his speed pretty well into his 30's, and he should be a good fielder, but become a consistent 25-35 homer guy? That's lunacy.

[Orange Juiced]

Ok .. how about a compromise ... Sox sign Jose Abreu and put JBJ in Center ... let Ellsbury walk.

 

That works for me.

[marklmw]

25-35 homers? Put the flask down, man. He should retain his speed pretty well into his 30's, and he should be a good fielder, but become a consistent 25-35 homer guy? That's lunacy.

 

Just remember my words.

[Orange Juiced]

Just remember my words.

 

Ok I'll do my best.

[Navafan29]

Ellsbury is one of my favorite players and is an established part of this team. Having a guy who steals half the time adds strategy to the team and makes it more fun to watch. I don't think you can just get rid of a key team member for a slight financial advantage. After his 5 SB game, I really got the feeling that he is here to stay.

[rjortiz]

Ellsbury is one of my favorite players and is an established part of this team. Having a guy who steals half the time adds strategy to the team and makes it more fun to watch. I don't think you can just get rid of a key team member for a slight financial advantage. After his 5 SB game, I really got the feeling that he is here to stay.

 

I guess you'll still have that memory when he's being thrown out at 2nd as a 36 year old left fielder.

[Navafan29]

But he's one of the guys.

[rjortiz]

But he's one of the guys.

 

There's been some idiotic rebuttals in this thread, but this one takes the cake. What the f*** do you even mean?