Current Red Sox playoff chances

[Thunder]

As of right now, how good/bad do you think the Sox playoff chances are? Red Sox are 72-51, with a 2.0 game lead over the Rays. If they are going to solidify themselves as a contender, it has to be over the next two weeks or so. The next 4 series are vs the Yankees, at the Giants and Dodgers, then home against the O's. I would love to see them go 8-4 during this stretch, averaging a series win in all 4 series. I think that is very possible. They have the offense to do it, but there are individual nights where it doesn't show up when needed. Those things happen to every team. The pitching will get a huge boost when Buchholz comes back. I think they still have a legitimate chance at getting to the World Series.

 

How do you think the next two weeks will go? How will it affect their playoff chances? What do you think their record during this stretch will be? Will they still be in 1st place after the Orioles series? All of these are things to think about.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

[Bellhorn04]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

 

Time to change your sig I guess.

[Station 13]

Most other teams seeking a WC have to go 30-10 to beat out the Red Sox for a WC. and the Sox go 10-30 or whatever their # of remaining games are. Edited August 16, 2013 by Station 13

[BigPapi]

Its just two series people. Jeez. They are going to lose two series in a row throughout the season, and luckily this year, they have not done it much. The loses were s***** and yesterdays poor performance of scoring base-runners was terrible, but they could win the next 3 series and get a bigger lead in first place.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Time to change your sig I guess.

 

It's more of me trying not to get crushed by a 2011 redux than anything. In my brain I think they're a PS team. In my heart I am trying not to get ripped again.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Most other teams seeking a WC have to go 30-10 to beat out the Red Sox for a WC. and the Sox go 10-30 or whatever their # of remaining games are.

 

Well this doesn't make sense. The Sox have a 5.5 game lead on BAL, who is the first to miss the PS. A bad series against the Yanks and a tough west coast trip could easily spin the Sox out of the PS mix. Not saying that's going to happen, but the collapse wouldn't have to be as massive as you portray by any means. They don't have a 20 game lead on the 3rd place team in the WC.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox have a really, really tough schedule to finish up:

 

3 v NYY

3 @ SFG

3 @ LAD

3 v BAL

3 v CHI

3 v DET

4 @ NYY

3 @ TB

3 v NYY

3 v BAL

3 v TOR

2 @ COL

3 @ BAL

 

Bolded teams are at or below .500. So, of the Red Sox final 39 games, 11 are against losing teams, 28 are against better than .500 teams, all of which are contending teams in the PS hunt. They do have an extra series at home, which should help (18 away games, 21 home games), but if they're going to win this division or even make the PS, they're going to really have to earn it.

 

The biggest boost that the Sox could get would be a healthy Buchholz in 2 weeks.

[Thunder]

The Sox have a really, really tough schedule to finish up:

 

3 v NYY

3 @ SFG

3 @ LAD

3 v BAL

3 v CHI

3 v DET

4 @ NYY

3 @ TB

3 v NYY

3 v BAL

3 v TOR

2 @ COL

3 @ BAL

 

Bolded teams are at or below .500. So, of the Red Sox final 39 games, 11 are against losing teams, 28 are against better than .500 teams, all of which are contending teams in the PS hunt. They do have an extra series at home, which should help (18 away games, 21 home games), but if they're going to win this division or even make the PS, they're going to really have to earn it.

 

The biggest boost that the Sox could get would be a healthy Buchholz in 2 weeks.

 

Buchholz is going to be a big boost to this team's morale.The whole pitching staff will benefit from having him back.

 

As for the 10 remaining Yankee games, the Sox are 6-3 against the Yankees this year. They should go at least .500 in those 10 Yankees games. Having Buchholz will certainly help.

[BigPapi]

The Sox have a really, really tough schedule to finish up:

 

3 v NYY

3 @ SFG

3 @ LAD

3 v BAL

3 v CHI

3 v DET

4 @ NYY

3 @ TB

3 v NYY

3 v BAL

3 v TOR

2 @ COL

3 @ BAL

 

Bolded teams are at or below .500. So, of the Red Sox final 39 games, 11 are against losing teams, 28 are against better than .500 teams, all of which are contending teams in the PS hunt. They do have an extra series at home, which should help (18 away games, 21 home games), but if they're going to win this division or even make the PS, they're going to really have to earn it.

 

The biggest boost that the Sox could get would be a healthy Buchholz in 2 weeks.

 

Very true. If we are a playoff team, we should be able to beat playoff and contending playoff teams.

[Thunder]

Very true. If we are a playoff team, we should be able to beat playoff and contending playoff teams.

 

Teams like Baltimore, New York, and Tampa are teams we can handle. We are 6-3 vs the Yankees, 4-6 vs the Orioles (most of the losses have been close) and 10-6 vs the Rays. Combined that's 20-15 against 3 very good teams.

[Bellhorn04]

The simple truth is, nobody knows s*** about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a f***ing clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

[VA Sox Fan]

The simple truth is, nobody knows s*** about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a f***ing clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

 

Great analogy. The bolded part is so true.

[Youk Of The Nation]

The simple truth is, nobody knows s*** about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a f***ing clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

 

Dustin Pedroia was Keyser Soze THE WHOLE TIME!

[Thunder]

The simple truth is, nobody knows s*** about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a f***ing clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

 

Great point. I think it's fair to say that this is why we follow baseball. Everything is so unpredictable.

 

 

Also, the schedule left for the Rays:

3 vs TOR

3 @ BAL

3 vs NYY

1 @ KC

3 vs LAA

3 @ OAK

4 @ LAA

3 @ SEA

3 vs Sox

3 @ MIN

4 vs TEX

4 vs BAL

3 @ NYY

3 @ TOR

[Bellhorn04]

Dustin Pedroia was Keyser Soze THE WHOLE TIME!

 

Heh, heh...Keyser was one of the scariest movie characters ever.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Great point. I think it's fair to say that this is why we follow baseball. Everything is so unpredictable.

 

 

Also, the schedule left for the Rays:

3 vs TOR

3 @ BAL

3 vs NYY

1 @ KC

3 vs LAA

3 @ OAK

4 @ LAA

3 @ SEA

3 vs Sox

3 @ MIN

4 vs TEX

4 vs BAL

3 @ NYY

3 @ TOR

 

Rays have 23 away games, 20 home games. The Rays are a .500 team on the road, and a .639 team at home. If those percentages hold true, or relatively true, the Rays will finish the season at 93-69.

 

For the Red Sox to finish 94-68, they will have to win 22 of their final 39 games, which is a .564 W%, or a 91 win pace.

 

This is going to be a tight race.

Edited August 16, 2013 by SoxFanForsyth

[Thunder]

Rays have 23 away games, 20 home games. The Rays are a .500 team on the road, and a .639 team at home. If those percentages hold true, or relatively true, the Rays will finish the season at 93-69.

 

For the Red Sox to finish 94-65, they will have to win 22 of their final 39 games, which is a .564 W%, or a 91 win pace.

 

This is going to be a tight race.

 

94-65 is only 159 games.

[SoxFanForsyth]

94-65 is only 159 games.

 

Yeah I meant 94-68. Typo.

[Thunder]

Yeah I meant 94-68. Typo.

 

Ok. So you have the Sox winning the East by 1 game. Wow. That will be intense.

[Station 13]

Ok. So you have the Sox winning the East by 1 game. Wow. That will be intense.

 

Dont we hold the tie breaker? If tie, we take the division and that boot Tampa to a WC? Not sure if the rules change since adding a WC2.

[Thunder]

Dont we hold the tie breaker? If tie, we take the division and that boot Tampa to a WC? Not sure if the rules change since adding a WC2.

 

Yes we have the tie breaker. We've already won 10 games against them, so we are guaranteed to win the season series.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I may be mistaken, but I am fairly certain that season series no longer affects the tie breaker. It's now a situation where you have a head to head game, i.e. a game 163, to see who wins the division, regardless of head to head record.

[rjortiz]

I may be mistaken, but I am fairly certain that season series no longer affects the tie breaker. It's now a situation where you have a head to head game, i.e. a game 163, to see who wins the division, regardless of head to head record.

 

That's correct. They use the head-to-head records to determine home field advantage now.

[rjortiz]

I'll say the Red Sox finish two to three games ahead of the Rays. Rays/A's play for the Wild Card.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

 

I'm going to Boston and kicking your ass. Put some sense into you lol!

[Palodios]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

 

Did anyone else just lose all faith in humanity?

[rjortiz]

Funny, because SFF was the one telling us at the beginning of the season to believe that the Red Sox were a playoff team. Haha, where did that optimism go?

 

Missing the playoffs is pretty unlikely. BP gives us a 93.7% chance to make the playoffs, and a 66% chance to win the division.

[Thunder]

Funny, because SFF was the one telling us at the beginning of the season to believe that the Red Sox were a playoff team. Haha, where did that optimism go?

 

Missing the playoffs is pretty unlikely. BP gives us a 93.7% chance to make the playoffs, and a 66% chance to win the division.

 

Can't argue with those odds.

[rjortiz]

Can't argue with those odds.

 

 

Plus, missing the playoffs would require some dramatic surge from the Guardians, Royals, or Orioles. Whatever you think of the Red Sox, it can't be lower than those teams.