2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?

[a700hitter]

Bailey is in his last year of arbitration after this season. He isn't ready until next August after his surgery. I bet he is non-tendered and re-sign a minor contract, saving a roster spot for other player(s).

 

Cherrington including a vesting option for Uehara is genius. He will make the same next season at 4.2M. Had Uehara went to arbitration instead, he would get 7M with the season he is having. This saves them about $3M to target other relievers. Plus they are off the hook with $15M invested in Hanarahan, Bailey and Aceves in 2013.

 

Also I can't believe anyone want Tazawa gone. Since 2012, he has pitch 90 games, 98 inning for Boston with a 2.00ERA

Bailey has a surgically repaired elbow that was acting up before he had his shoulder surgically repaired. He is likely to end up on the junk heap of broken down pitchers.

[sk7326]

Bailey has a surgically repaired elbow that was acting up before he had his shoulder surgically repaired. He is likely to end up on the junk heap of broken down pitchers.

 

If there has been one thing Cherington has done wrong - it has been the fetish for trading for "proven closers" - often overpaying. Bailey and Hanrahan need to be object lessons here. You are better off just throwing live arm after live arm at the situation until one sticks. Tampa shows the way here - sift through other team's garbage (or your own) and there is plenty to be had.

[Bellhorn04]

If there has been one thing Cherington has done wrong - it has been the fetish for trading for "proven closers" - often overpaying. Bailey and Hanrahan need to be object lessons here. You are better off just throwing live arm after live arm at the situation until one sticks. Tampa shows the way here - sift through other team's garbage (or your own) and there is plenty to be had.

 

Yeah...but I am loving the 7 blown saves by Rodney. Some really ugly ones too.

[RedSoxNC84]

Yeah...but I am loving the 7 blown saves by Rodney. Some really ugly ones too.

 

Just goes to show you the inconsistency that is major league relief pitching. Rodney has a straight up lights-f***ing-out 2012, and now he's a fairly average reliever again.

[sk7326]

It is a good reason to look year to year with the bullpen. Just pick a guy and let him work the 9th ... it's an inning - just like the others, although the financial incentives have gone insane. I mean this year Uehara - a pitcher with phenomenal command and a good splitter, but no wipeout pitches - has been remarkable this year. But he could turn into a pumpkin next year easily. You could just as easily have Drake Britton get those reps next year (obviously Koji deserves the role until he loses it) - just how the cookie crumbles. Tampa turned an Angels castoff (Rodney) into somebody after turning career underachiever Kyle Farnsworth into the same. We have plenty of live arms - just run them through.

[Lord Snow]

If there has been one thing Cherington has done wrong - it has been the fetish for trading for "proven closers" - often overpaying. Bailey and Hanrahan need to be object lessons here. You are better off just throwing live arm after live arm at the situation until one sticks. Tampa shows the way here - sift through other team's garbage (or your own) and there is plenty to be had.

 

The problem is relief pitcher is such a volatile position. Consistency is incredibly rare. There are only a handful of guys who have an excellent career. It's why Papelbon got the big contract, and perhaps why it was a mistake to let him go. He was somebody you could count on year in, and year out, to get the job done.

 

Cherington's strategy has worked well this season. Shop the free agent scrap heap and see who sticks. Hanrahan came cheap so I don't lose sleep over his injury.

 

Tazawa should get the next crack at the closer's role. He is young enough, and thus far consistent enough, to take the role and run with it for a few years.

[Orange Juiced]

The problem is relief pitcher is such a volatile position. Consistency is incredibly rare. There are only a handful of guys who have an excellent career. It's why Papelbon got the big contract, and perhaps why it was a mistake to let him go. He was somebody you could count on year in, and year out, to get the job done.

 

Cherington's strategy has worked well this season. Shop the free agent scrap heap and see who sticks. Hanrahan came cheap so I don't lose sleep over his injury.

 

Tazawa should get the next crack at the closer's role. He is young enough, and thus far consistent enough, to take the role and run with it for a few years.

 

Uh...I think that, unless Uehara gets hurt, he will have the closer's role next year. Dude has been un-frickin'-believable in that role this year.

[sk7326]

The problem is relief pitcher is such a volatile position. Consistency is incredibly rare. There are only a handful of guys who have an excellent career. It's why Papelbon got the big contract, and perhaps why it was a mistake to let him go. He was somebody you could count on year in, and year out, to get the job done.

 

Cherington's strategy has worked well this season. Shop the free agent scrap heap and see who sticks. Hanrahan came cheap so I don't lose sleep over his injury.

 

Tazawa should get the next crack at the closer's role. He is young enough, and thus far consistent enough, to take the role and run with it for a few years.

 

It IS a volatile position - I agree. But Papelbon clearly when we let him go had stopped justifying his contract demands. Pitching innings with nobody on is not really a skill that should cost a ton of money. Papelbon is a closer because he was anointed in 2006 and amassed enough saves that the market is paying him as such. But he has not been treated like a team's best reliever for a few years - now granted not nearly enough teams use their best relievers when it matters most (the Red Sox are good there relatively).

 

The one inning closer is a relatively unimportant invention - it is helpful that they find SOMEBODY, but they don't need to go nuts identifying who.

[Bellhorn04]

The one inning closer is a relatively unimportant invention - it is helpful that they find SOMEBODY, but they don't need to go nuts identifying who.

 

I disagree. It took us a year and a half to find the right replacement for Papelbon. And it was not an easy process at all.

[sk7326]

I disagree. It took us a year and a half to find the right replacement for Papelbon. And it was not an easy process at all.

 

A lot of their relievers last year weren't particularly good to begin with. There are a lot of talk show sort of reasons to anoint closers - but what the job has become ... pitch an inning, without any baserunners on ... is not that bad, and often are not the most important outs of a particular game.

 

I was watching the MLB.TV package for Sox-Royals and got the Royals announcers and they were talking about "getting the game to Holland" in the 9th - as if they would never bring him in the 8th when the Red Sox were building the rally. Yet that is how almost every team thinks - what good is a closer if you refuse to use him when the game is on the line? I argued for Hanrahan over Bailey early in the year - but that is because Bailey was the better pitcher and should not be kept in the "proven closer" glass case. I mean the Phillies are paying $14 million for 50 innings of work - is that an efficient use of money? Only pitch a guy when there is a lead and no duress?

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of their relievers last year weren't particularly good to begin with. There are a lot of talk show sort of reasons to anoint closers - but what the job has become ... pitch an inning, without any baserunners on ... is not that bad, and often are not the most important outs of a particular game.

 

I was watching the MLB.TV package for Sox-Royals and got the Royals announcers and they were talking about "getting the game to Holland" in the 9th - as if they would never bring him in the 8th when the Red Sox were building the rally. Yet that is how almost every team thinks - what good is a closer if you refuse to use him when the game is on the line? I argued for Hanrahan over Bailey early in the year - but that is because Bailey was the better pitcher and should not be kept in the "proven closer" glass case. I mean the Phillies are paying $14 million for 50 innings of work - is that an efficient use of money? Only pitch a guy when there is a lead and no duress?

 

I agree with you on some of these points. I do, however, think that pitching the last inning carries its own special pressure.

 

I've been thinking of starting a thread about closers. The topic has always intrigued me. I will do this in the next day or two.

[sk7326]

I agree with you on some of these points. I do, however, think that pitching the last inning carries its own special pressure.

 

I've been thinking of starting a thread about closers. The topic has always intrigued me. I will do this in the next day or two.

 

It is possible that there is extra pressure - but I have not seen a good analysis proving it (and a bunch of ex jocks who got paid to do it aren't great authorities). I look at it very simply - if you don't want to bring a pitcher into the 8th inning of a tie game with the go ahead run on 3rd ... then he's not a guy you trust and not really worth the scratch.

[RedSoxNC84]

Uh...I think that, unless Uehara gets hurt, he will have the closer's role next year. Dude has been un-frickin'-believable in that role this year.

 

I think his point has been closer to what everyone else's has been: You can't predict how someone is going to pitch the following year. Koji could be lights out in the closer role again or he could get injured, or suck it up so bad they have to stick him in garbage time innings...

 

Just look at guys like Jordan Walden, dude was insane in 2011.. Have you heard his name much since? I haven't. Take a look at Fernando Rodney, he was virtually unhittable last year, now he's pretty much an average reliever.

 

They're just saying go with the live arm, if Koji is still pitching like he is, by all means stay with him. If he's not, give someone else a shot.

[lospunchados]

I think his point has been closer to what everyone else's has been: You can't predict how someone is going to pitch the following year. Koji could be lights out in the closer role again or he could get injured, or suck it up so bad they have to stick him in garbage time innings...

 

Just look at guys like Jordan Walden, dude was insane in 2011.. Have you heard his name much since? I haven't. Take a look at Fernando Rodney, he was virtually unhittable last year, now he's pretty much an average reliever.

 

They're just saying go with the live arm, if Koji is still pitching like he is, by all means stay with him. If he's not, give someone else a shot.

 

Jordan Walden was hurt and only pitched half a year in 2012, still put up respectable numbers. He is back to being around his 2011 levels if not better this year. You haven't heard about him as much probably because he is in the NL.

 

I agree you can't predict relievers as accurately as other positions, but any reliever who has proved they can pitch well in Boston I think the front office will be more willing to give a 2 year deal on, or go into next year with Koji as the closer.

[rjortiz]

C - McCann

1B - Napoli

2B - Pedroia

SS - Bogaerts

3B - Middlebrooks

LF - Gonzalez

CF - Ellsbury

RF - Victorino

DH - Ortiz

 

C - Ross

1B - Carp

INF - Holt

OF - ?

 

SP - Buchholz

SP - Peavy

SP - Lackey

SP - Doubrount

SP - Lester

 

RP - Uehara

RP - Tazawa

RP - Miller

RP - Workman

RP - Britton

RP - Breslow

RP - De La Rosa

 

Trade Nava and Gomes for prospects or relievers.

Trade Bradley Jr., Owens, Ranaudo, and Cecchini for Carlos Gonzalez. (I doubt the Marlins would bite on that offer for Stanton, but if they did trade for Stanton.)

Trade Dempster for a used baseball

 

It would deplete our pitching prospect inventory. Hopefully, Webster and De La Rosa can find the strike zone, as we would lose Dempster, Lackey, and Peavy in 2015. Although, I think we can keep Lackey for the minimum, because of his surgery? I'm not sure.

Edited August 16, 2013 by rjortiz