4/20 vs Kansas City

[BornToRun]

oh boy!

 

Kimbrel:

 

Career ERA: 1.39

Career ERA+: 283

Career WHIP: .89

Career K/9: 15.7

 

2012 ERA: 1.01

2012 ERA+: 399

2012 WHIP: .65

2012 K/9: 16.7

[Dojji]

Tell that to the Braves, Cardinals, Giants and all of the other teams with elite closers making league minimum. This is the textbook definition of failthought.

 

Because that won't change by year 4 of these young pitchers' tenures.

 

If they keep it up, they'll get paid like the elites they are. And if they don't, then pretending they are because of 1-2 good years is failthought itself.

 

I mean sure, if you can luck out with a rookie to get the job done, rock on, but let's not pretend that rookies are predictable. For every Papelbon, who goes on to have a stable high level career, you have 2, 3 guys who don't. And even the guys that do, eventually get paid like guys that do. So if you want to throw away your productive, steady elite RP just because you have to pay him what he is, and go back to the grab bag, don't be surprised if it bites you in the tail.

 

Basically it comes down to what you're saying here: I want the best, but I don't want to pay for it. One of these two statements is going to have to give way, either you pay for the best, or you settle for less than the best -- especially because "the best" is frequently not available for any money at all -- as is the case for us right now.

[iortiz]

Kimbrel:

 

Career ERA: 1.39

Career ERA+: 283

Career WHIP: .89

Career K/9: 15.7

 

2012 ERA: 1.01

2012 ERA+: 399

2012 WHIP: .65

2012 K/9: 16.7

 

Seriously, how many full seasons has under his belt?

[iortiz]

... And Pap?

[Dojji]

Kimbrel:

 

Career ERA: 1.39

Career ERA+: 283

Career WHIP: .89

Career K/9: 15.7

 

2012 ERA: 1.01

2012 ERA+: 399

2012 WHIP: .65

2012 K/9: 16.7

 

Career IP: >200

 

And you can bet your bottom dollar that if he keeps this up, he's going to command 8 figures sometime within the next 3 years.

[BornToRun]

Seriously, how many full seasons has under his belt?

 

2. And he's been utterly insane in those 2 years. He's completely destroyed Papelbon in pretty much every meaningful category.

[User Name]

Because that won't change by year 4 of these young pitchers' tenures.

 

If they keep it up, they'll get paid like the elites they are. And if they don't, then pretending they are because of 1-2 good years is failthought itself.

 

I mean sure, if you can luck out with a rookie to get the job done, rock on, but let's not pretend that rookies are predictable. For every Papelbon, who goes on to have a stable high level career, you have 2, 3 guys who don't. And even the guys that do, eventually get paid like guys that do. So if you want to throw away your productive, steady elite RP just because you have to pay him what he is, and go back to the grab bag, don't be surprised if it bites you in the tail.

 

Basically it comes down to what you're saying here: I want the best, but I don't want to pay for it. One of these two statements is going to have to give way -- especially because "the best" is frequently not available for any money at all -- as is the case for us right now.

 

Dojji, what it comes down to is the the closer position is unpredictable all unto itself. There is a reason why there are teams who keep getting elite production even though they have high position turnover (Oakland, Tampa) from the closer role. The reason why paying for relief pitching is stupid is because teams who can identify talent have proven time and time again that you can play musical chairs with the position and still get comfortably above average/elite results.

 

It is failthought, because there are best practices established by other teams that absolutely dispel the need to spend big on a closer, or relief pitching for that matter.

[BornToRun]

Career IP: >200

 

And you can bet your bottom dollar that if he keeps this up, he's going to command 8 figures sometime within the next 3 years.

 

And he might be one of the few examples of a guy being worth it. He is hands down the best relief pitcher in baseball right now and there isn't anyone in anybody's bullpen that I would take over Kimbrel.

[User Name]

Career IP: >200

 

And you can bet your bottom dollar that if he keeps this up, he's going to command 8 figures sometime within the next 3 years.

 

And then they'll replace him with a homegrown pitcher who can get similar results for league minimum.

[Dojji]

2. And he's been utterly insane in those 2 years. He's completely destroyed Papelbon in pretty much every meaningful category.

 

And when it's time to get paid, his agent will exact what he's due from somebody.

 

This is a bad argument. You're basically saying we should be able to count on Craig Kimbrels coming up and providing elite relief for no money all the time. Or if that's not your argument, I have no idea why you'd even bring it up because it has nothing else to do with our situation, in which we clearly don't have Craig Kimbrel, and by the time we could get Kimbrel himself, we'd be paying full price for him.

 

I mean, sure, of the 30 teams, someone's usually coming up with a young hotshot closer any given year, but that's because there's 30 teams. If you think your team can always obtain that guy, not only are you dead wrong, but if you're the GM your ignorance is going to do more harm than good, as it did last year when we had the mighty combination of Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon, and Andrew "Injured Pinkie" Bailey to keep the wins rolling in. And we saw how well that went.

[RedSoxNC84]

And then they'll replace him with a homegrown pitcher who can get similar results for league minimum.

 

How many homegrown pitchers put up over 16 K/9?

[Beaneater]

I forgot to mention one thing in the GT.

 

Babyfaced Assassin strikes again!

[Dojji]

And then they'll replace him with a homegrown pitcher who can get similar results for league minimum.

 

You mean they'll try to.

 

Sometimes it even works.

 

When it works, the team wins and we remember the succeeses. When it fails, we get 2012, which fans even in Boston are already desperately trying to forget. It can lead to a nice little bit of selection bias.

 

Again, with 30 teams, you're going to get some hotshot kid making the closer position his own on a few teams in any given year, but pretending that your one team out of that 30 can expect it to happen all the time just because you don't want to pay out of pocket for the level of talent you actually get, is misguided.

 

In other words, if it were that easy, where's all the veteran closers no one wants to pay? Clearly the evidence of our eyes and the unavailability of all those proven elite closers everyone cheaps out on because that's the smart play, means it isn't the smart play and someone's ignoring the significance of the closer's role just because it's a little tricky to understand or quantify.

[User Name]

And when it's time to get paid, his agent will exact what he's due from somebody.

 

This is a bad argument. You're basically saying we should be able to count on Craig Kimbrels coming up and providing elite relief for no money all the time. Or if that's not your argument, I have no idea why you'd even bring it up because it has nothing else to do with our situation, in which we clearly don't have Craig Kimbrel, and by the time we could get Kimbrel himself, we'd be paying full price for him.

 

I mean, sure, of the 30 teams, someone's usually coming up with a young hotshot closer any given year, but that's because there's 30 teams. If you think your team can always obtain that guy, not only are you dead wrong, but if you're the GM your ignorance is going to do more harm than good, as it did last year when we had the mighty combination of Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon, and Andrew "Injured Pinkie" Bailey to keep the wins rolling in. And we saw how well that went.

 

Hey, tell that to Oakland and Tampa. They keep doing it. There has to be a reason their success playing musical chairs with the closer role is repeatable

[User Name]

You mean they'll try to.

 

Sometimes it even works.

 

When it works, the team wins and we remember the succeeses. When the team fails, we get 2012, which fans even in Boston are already desperately trying to forget. It can lead to a nice little bit of selection bias.

 

Not "sometimes". It usually works. That's exactly the issue here.

[BornToRun]

And when it's time to get paid, his agent will exact what he's due from somebody.

 

This is a bad argument. You're basically saying we should be able to count on Craig Kimbrels coming up and providing elite relief for no money all the time. Or if that's not your argument, I have no idea why you'd even bring it up because it has nothing else to do with our situation, in which we clearly don't have Craig Kimbrel, and by the time we could get Kimbrel himself, we'd be paying full price for him.

 

I mean, sure, of the 30 teams, someone's usually coming up with a young hotshot closer any given year, but that's because there's 30 teams. If you think your team can always obtain that guy, not only are you dead wrong, but if you're the GM your ignorance is going to do more harm than good, as it did last year when we had the mighty combination of Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon, and Andrew "Injured Pinkie" Bailey to keep the wins rolling in. And we saw how well that went.

 

iortiz said that pap is the best closer in baseball. I disagreed because that title belongs to Craig Kimbrel.

 

And I seriously doubt that our closer issues were the reason we lost 93 games. You can blame the rotation for that.

[User Name]

How many homegrown pitchers put up over 16 K/9?

 

So the K/9 is the only indicator of effectiveness in a closer?

[Dojji]

Not "sometimes". It usually works. That's exactly the issue here.

 

No it does not usually work. Of the, like, 10 teams that try it in any given year it works for 1-2 of them and they make the playoffs and the rest are forgotten about. I would not call am 80% failure rate usually working.

 

If it "usually worked" there'd be a lot more true elite closers out there.

[BornToRun]

So the K/9 is the only indicator of effectiveness in a closer?

 

Agreed. Kimbrel is by far the best there is right now but you could probably let him walk and then replace him with someone who can do the job at a solid level for a fraction of the cost.

 

That said, Kimbrel is one guy who I might consider paying a decent amount of cash to acquire if the opportunity presented itself. He's one member in a very exclusive club.

[RedSoxNC84]

So the K/9 is the only indicator of effectiveness in a closer?

 

No of course it isn't, but it damn sure contributes.

[Dojji]

iortiz said that pap is the best closer in baseball. I disagreed because that title belongs to Craig Kimbrel.

 

And I seriously doubt that our closer issues were the reason we lost 93 games. You can blame the rotation for that.

 

Granted the rotation did the lion's share of the damage, but the back end didn't exactly help, stalling momentum in a few key games can make a huge difference down the stretch.

 

Even if they weren't the worst part of 2012, if you can't see how the bullpen hurt us, I don't know what to tell you.

[iortiz]

2. And he's been utterly insane in those 2 years. He's completely destroyed Papelbon in pretty much every meaningful category.

 

Period.

[Dojji]

Agreed. Kimbrel is by far the best there is right now but you could probably let him walk and then replace him with someone who can do the job at a solid level for a fraction of the cost.

 

That said, Kimbrel is one guy who I might consider paying a decent amount of cash to acquire if the opportunity presented itself. He's one member in a very exclusive club.

 

If there is such a club, Papelbon is in it.

 

Whether you like it or not, that is a fact.

[User Name]

No of course it isn't, but it damn sure contributes.

 

Obviously. But the point is that some teams seem to churn out closers like butter, and literally laugh at teams who pay for relief pitching. So if they don't pay money for relief pitching and have successful relief corps, why can't the Red Sox replicate that model?

 

I bet a lot of this argument would pipe down if the Sox installed Tazawa at closer.

[BornToRun]

Period.

 

By that logic, you'd rather take Pujols over Mike Trout.

[BornToRun]

If there is such a club, Papelbon is in it.

 

Whether you like it or not, that is a fact.

 

That club is Kimbrel, and formerly Rivera.

[User Name]

If there is such a club, Papelbon is in it.

 

Whether you like it or not, that is a fact.

 

Yeah that's where the major point of our disagreement comes from. Other than Rivera (and even he lost a full year to injury) i don't think ANY closer should be sniffing what Papelbon's making, at least on a long-term deal.

 

We can agree to disagree, but there's plenty of evidence out there that proves the fact that there's no need to pay big money for a closer.

[jung]

Saying a team's closer formula is a fail based on whether they make the post season or not is really not an argument that will wash. For one thing, so many teams make the post season without having paid a fortune for their closer.

 

How many of those teams were make or break for the post season based on their closer? There are several more critical factors to making the post season than who is pitching the 9th inning. Games are often won or lost before the 9th inning.

 

If you are losing too many games going into the 9th inning the guy closing is not going to have much to say about whether or not you are going to the post season.

 

Pointing the Sox in 2012 won't wash either. That team was not going to the post season if God was closing.

 

Just give me a closer that is not as easy to figure out as Bailey. Maybe that is Hanrahan when he gets back. Maybe it is Ueh...maybe Taz.

[User Name]

^It's really that simple. A bunch of teams since 2000 have won the series without a high-paid closer. In fact, the Angels (2002) and Cardinals (2006, 2011) won everything with ROOKIE closers.

[Dojji]

And Papelbon and Rivera between them make 5 teams that won with proven elite guys in the same timeframe.

 

EDIT: 6. I still try to forget about 2009