2013 Yankees in-game thread

[yankees228]

Well the good news, for the Yankees, is that this is the best Robbie has looked since mid April. The other good news is that they're probably going to win their second straight game. The bad news is that they still are pretty crummy and Kuroda was sent back to NY for tests on his leg. Girardi will address that situation after the game.

[Station 13]

Twins are pussies.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Twins are pussies.

 

That was expected to be honest. The Twins have been the Yankees bitch since 2009.

[a700hitter]

That was expected to be honest. The Twins have been the Yankees bitch since 2009.

i can't watch them play the Twins. Even when the Twins keep the game tight going into the late innings, Gardenhire gives away the game. It happens over and over.

[Station 13]

It's time for Gardenhire to get shown the door.

[User Name]

09? Yanks have been handing the Twins their asses in regular season/playoffs since at least 2001.

[Standing Room]

A-Rod's rehab at bat results obviously don't matter, that was a joke. Between A-Rod's attitude, his declining skill level, his inability to stay healthy and his impending suspension, he'll be a non-factor.

 

If Kuroda misses time, the Yankees are screwed. He's the only league average starting pitcher on the team, and I mean that literally. Kuroda's the only starting pitcher who's made five starts for the team and has an ERA+ of 100 or better. His ERA+ is literally 40 points higher than Sabathia's.

[yankees228]

A-Rod's rehab at bat results obviously don't matter, that was a joke. Between A-Rod's attitude, his declining skill level, his inability to stay healthy and his impending suspension, he'll be a non-factor.

 

If Kuroda misses time, the Yankees are screwed. He's the only league average starting pitcher on the team, and I mean that literally. Kuroda's the only starting pitcher who's made five starts for the team and has an ERA+ of 100 or better. His ERA+ is literally 40 points higher than Sabathia's.

 

CC is still the best pitcher on the team. Best xFIP by a significant margin.

[Standing Room]

CC is still the best pitcher on the team. Best xFIP by a significant margin.

 

Kuroda has the better ERA, WHIP, ERA+, FIP, and WAR. I'm not sure Sabathia's getting unlucky with the long ball, he's allowing a .447 SLG against all righthanders this year.

[yankees228]

Kuroda has the better ERA, WHIP, ERA+, FIP, and WAR. I'm not sure Sabathia's getting unlucky with the long ball, he's allowing a .447 SLG against all righthanders this year.

 

CC has his issues, namely, as you mentioned, his lack of success vs RHHs. But his HR/FB% is way up above his career average, along with his HR/9, while his FB% remains almost exactly in line with his career average. To me, at least in part, that seems like the product of some bad luck. And ERA, WHIP, ERA+, and FIP, while not useless metrics by any stretch (well, ERA and ERA+ might be, but that's for another discussion), do not accurately reflect true performance levels as well as xFIP does ... a point you've made in the past, both implicitly and explicitly.

[Standing Room]

CC has his issues, namely, as you mentioned, his lack of success vs RHHs. But his HR/FB% is way up above his career average, along with his HR/9, while his FB% remains almost exactly in line with his career average. To me, at least in part, that seems like the product of some bad luck. And ERA, WHIP, ERA+, and FIP, while not useless metrics by any stretch (well, ERA and ERA+ might be, but that's for another discussion), do not accurately reflect true performance levels as well as xFIP does ... a point you've made in the past, both implicitly and explicitly.

 

I've never explicitly said so, but I like xFIP a lot over large sample sizes. It's probably my favorite pitching metric. Over 100 inning sample sizes, where a pitcher is seeing dramatic changes to their pitching ability, I wouldn't use it as the only stat to judge a pitcher by. To me, it makes perfect sense that Sabathia would give up more home runs now that he's lost 2 mph on his fastball. He can make the same pitches he was before, and the hitter will get around on them rather than popping them up. I expect him to continue to give up more home runs than normal as he attempts to adjust his approach.

[yankees228]

I've never explicitly said so, but I like xFIP a lot over large sample sizes. It's probably my favorite pitching metric. Over 100 inning sample sizes, where a pitcher is seeing dramatic changes to their pitching ability, I wouldn't use it as the only stat to judge a pitcher by. To me, it makes perfect sense that Sabathia would give up more home runs now that he's lost 2 mph on his fastball. He can make the same pitches he was before, and the hitter will get around on them rather than popping them up. I expect him to continue to give up more home runs than normal as he attempts to adjust his approach.

 

Dramatic changes is a bit of an exaggeration. He's not a completely different pitcher now that he has lost a couple MPH off his FB. Time will tell, I guess, but I fully expect his ERA and xFIP to meet much closer to where his xFIP currently is than vice versa.

[Standing Room]

Dramatic changes is a bit of an exaggeration. He's not a completely different pitcher now that he has lost a couple MPH off his FB. Time will tell, I guess, but I fully expect his ERA and xFIP to meet much closer to where his xFIP currently is than vice versa.

 

Dramatic changes is spot on. It's not just that he's lost 2 mph on his fastball, he's seeing dramatic 2-3 mph difference in is his velocity from one start to the next, he's suddenly unable to get out righthanded hitters, he has the lowest strikeouts rates in eight years, one of the lowest groundball rates, one of the highest fly ball rates and the highest home run rate of his career. He has significant adjustments to make, and so far he's been unable to make them.

[yankees228]

Dramatic changes is spot on. It's not just that he's lost 2 mph on his fastball, he's seeing dramatic 2-3 mph difference in is his velocity from one start to the next, he's suddenly unable to get out righthanded hitters, he has the lowest strikeouts rates in eight years, one of the lowest groundball rates, one of the highest fly ball rates and the highest home run rate of his career. He has significant adjustments to make, and so far he's been unable to make them.

 

Well OK, I think you're mixing different types of changes. I thought you were strictly referring to changes in his abilities (FB velocity), rather than changes in his production (RHHs, K-rate, GB rate, FB rate, etc). In small samplings those aren't always related.

 

Also, his GB rate and FB rate are right in line with his career averages.

[Standing Room]

Well OK, I think you're mixing different types of changes. I thought you were strictly referring to changes in his abilities (FB velocity), rather than changes in his production (RHHs, K-rate, GB rate, FB rate, etc). In small samplings those aren't always related.

 

Also, his GB rate and FB rate are right in line with his career averages.

 

Seems like an unnecessary exercise in semantics. His abilities to throw hard, maintain his velocity, strike batters out, get out right handers, keep the ball in the park, etc. are all declining. Doesn't matter whether you prefer to call some of those abilities and other ones production, the results are the same.

 

His ground ball rate is the lowest he's had since 2009, his fly ball rate is the highest it's been since 2009, his home run rate is the highest of his career.

[Station 13]

Could the league contract the Twinkies already?

[yankees228]

Seems like an unnecessary exercise in semantics. His abilities to throw hard, maintain his velocity, strike batters out, get out right handers, keep the ball in the park, etc. are all declining. Doesn't matter whether you prefer to call some of those abilities and other ones production, the results are the same.

 

His ground ball rate is the lowest he's had since 2009, his fly ball rate is the highest it's been since 2009, his home run rate is the highest of his career.

 

It's not semantics at all.

 

His FB velocity has declined. That's a skill, and it's both obvious and observable. The other things are a matter of interpreting results, which is an entirely different matter. The results, especially over the course of a half season, can be flukey, and don't always represent the type of dramatic shift that you're claiming. The moment you start using that sort of sample size as a completely accurate reflection of what sort of pitcher someone is is the moment where you've gone too far, in my opinion. When you say "this is declining" or "that is declining" you're overstating the predictive value of a half season worth of results. This is the type of thinking that would lead one to claim that the Yankees made a mistake in letting CMW go because he had a couple decent starts.

 

And yeah, since 2009. But that's a convenient, arbitrary endpoint. If I recall he did alright in 2007, 2008, and 2009.

Edited July 4, 2013 by yankees228

[Standing Room]

It's not semantics at all.

 

His FB velocity has declined. That's a skill, and it's both obvious and observable. The other things are a matter of interpreting results, which is an entirely different matter. The results, especially over the course of a half season, can be flukey, and don't always represent the type of dramatic shift that you're claiming. The moment you start using that sort of sample size as a completely accurate reflection of what sort of pitcher someone is is the moment where you've gone too far, in my opinion. When you say "this is declining" or "that is declining" you're overstating the predictive value of a half season worth of results. This is the type of thinking that would lead one to claim that the Yankees made a mistake in letting CMW go because he had a couple decent starts.

 

And yeah, since 2009. But that's a convenient, arbitrary endpoint. If I recall he did alright in 2007, 2008, and 2009.

 

If you don't want to admit that Sabathia's had a significant change in his skills, production, abilities or whatever else you want to call it this year, then you're in denial. It's not that his ERA is up. He's 32 years old and his velocity is down. He's publically acknowledged that he doesn't think he's going to get his velocity back and he'll need to learn to pitch differently. And most of his peripherals or at career lows or at four year lows.

 

You're saying we can't judge Sabathia by 120 innings, but we can judge Chien-Ming Wang by two starts? Talk about inconsistency. You're just using whatever sample size fits your narrative. Usually you're better than this.

[a700hitter]

Big thick guys like CC can break down dramatically fast. The guy has been some horse for years now. I think it is a bit premature to predict his demise. I still don't like seeing him on the bump.

[User Name]

This discussion is getting kind of silly. I think the rhetoric can be toned down a bit and wait to see what happens with Fat Sabby. Other pitchers have successfully adapted to pitching with less velocity, and we just don't know whether or not Sabathia will be able to. Time will tell, and all we can do is wait.

 

That said, an argument can be made for the fact that fatty's declining quickly thanks to the loss of velocity, but the argument can be made that we just won't know if he will or won't adjust until the sample is bigger. All we can do is wait.

[User Name]

Big thick guys like CC can break down dramatically fast. The guy has been some horse for years now. I think it is a bit premature to predict his demise. I still don't like seeing him on the bump.

 

^ Pretty much

[yankees228]

If you don't want to admit that Sabathia's had a significant change in his skills, production, abilities or whatever else you want to call it this year, then you're in denial. It's not that his ERA is up. He's 32 years old and his velocity is down. He's publically acknowledged that he doesn't think he's going to get his velocity back and he'll need to learn to pitch differently. And most of his peripherals or at career lows or at four year lows.

 

You're saying we can't judge Sabathia by 120 innings, but we can judge Chien-Ming Wang by two starts? Talk about inconsistency. You're just using whatever sample size fits your narrative. Usually you're better than this.

 

I'm saying we can't judge CMW based on two stats. It was you that did that.

 

As for CC, you didn't really respond to anything I posted. Let me ask you this, though. Did you think that John Lackey was in permanent decline in 2011? How about Josh Beckett in 2010? There are many more examples where those come from. I mean, the way you're harping on the velocity makes it seem like he's barely touching 90 anymore. He's sitting slightly above 93, only 2 MPH less than where he was in 2011. That's still pretty good.

[Standing Room]

I'm saying we can't judge CMW based on two stats. It was you that did that.

 

As for CC, you didn't really respond to anything I posted. Let me ask you this, though. Did you think that John Lackey was in permanent decline in 2011? How about Josh Beckett in 2010? There are many more examples where those come from. I mean, the way you're harping on the velocity makes it seem like he's barely touching 90 anymore. He's sitting slightly above 93, only 2 MPH less than where he was in 2011. That's still pretty good.

 

WTF are you talking about? Weeks ago, I asked why the Yankees released Chien Ming Wang after he had a 2.33 ERA over 9 starts in the minor leagues. Him having a bad two starts weeks later has nothing to do with the Yankees decision to let him go. And Chien Ming Wang has nothing to do with this conversation, I don't know why you keep going back to it.

 

Sabathia isn't comparable at all to Lackey or Beckett. Sabathia is healthy and he's seen a 2 mph drop on his fastball that he's flat out said he doesn't think he's going to get back. There are plenty of pitchers who are just having bad years like Cole Hamels or Matt Cain who aren't old and losing velocity, and aren't posting peripherals that are career lows or 5-7 year lows.

[Standing Room]

This discussion is getting kind of silly. I think the rhetoric can be toned down a bit and wait to see what happens with Fat Sabby. Other pitchers have successfully adapted to pitching with less velocity, and we just don't know whether or not Sabathia will be able to. Time will tell, and all we can do is wait.

 

That said, an argument can be made for the fact that fatty's declining quickly thanks to the loss of velocity, but the argument can be made that we just won't know if he will or won't adjust until the sample is bigger. All we can do is wait.

 

I think you're misinterpreting what I said. I never said that Sabathia was in permanent decline. I stated that he's seen a dramatic change in his abilities, and that he needs to make adjustments if he wants to continue to be an effective pitcher. Being a strikeout, power pitcher who blows his fastball by guys simply isn't working when he's throwing 91 mph.

[yankees228]

WTF are you talking about? Weeks ago, I asked why the Yankees released Chien Ming Wang after he had a 2.33 ERA over 9 starts in the minor leagues. Him having a bad two starts weeks later has nothing to do with the Yankees decision to let him go. And Chien Ming Wang has nothing to do with this conversation, I don't know why you keep going back to it.

 

Sabathia isn't comparable at all to Lackey or Beckett. Sabathia is healthy and he's seen a 2 mph drop on his fastball that he's flat out said he doesn't think he's going to get back. There are plenty of pitchers who are just having bad years like Cole Hamels or Matt Cain who aren't old and losing velocity, and aren't posting peripherals that are career lows or 5-7 year lows.

 

You claimed the Yankees made a mistake by letting him go after a couple good starts with the Blue Jays. It's relevant because it's an example of making a snap judgement based on a meaningless sample size.

 

I guess we disagree about CC on a few different levels. I think it's premature to take his results this season and read anything more into them than that he's off to a rough start. I admit, he could be in decline, but you seem to be stating that as a fact and I think that's an overreaction to a sample size that doesn't warrant such conclusions. I also think you're overstating the significance of the velocity drop and are misapplying some of the peripherals to aid your argument. These are things I've already stated and elaborated on in other posts, and doing so again seems pointless. I see your points, and we'll just have to see how it plays out over the rest of the season and in subsequent years.

 

EDIT: Your use of the peripherals in your argument is completely cherry picked, as you're really only making comparisons to the last couple years while ignoring peripherals in other, really good seasons along with career averages. I'm surprised you don't see this.

Edited July 4, 2013 by yankees228

[Standing Room]

You claimed the Yankees made a mistake by letting him go after a couple good starts with the Blue Jays. It's relevant because it's an example of making a snap judgement based on a meaningless sample size.

 

I guess we disagree about CC on a few different levels. I think it's premature to take his results this season and read anything more into them than that he's off to a rough start. I admit, he could be in decline, but you seem to be stating that as a fact and I think that's an overreaction to a sample size that doesn't warrant such conclusions. I also think you're overstating the significance of the velocity drop and are misapplying some of the peripherals to aid your argument. These are things I've already stated and elaborated on in other posts, and doing so again seems pointless. I see your points, and we'll just have to see how it plays out over the rest of the season and in subsequent years.

 

I never stated that the Yankees should not have released Wang because he had two good starts. That's flat out wrong. Go back and quote me if I did.

 

I never stated Sabathia's in permanent decline either, I stated he's sign a dramatic change in his abilities and he needs to make adjustments if he wants to remain effective. Then you tried to make it an argument about what's an ability. Classic Bill Clinton. A 2 mph difference on your fastball is huge for a power pitcher. It's not just that he's been unlucky as you seem to be suggesting.

[yankees228]

It's funny because you can very easily say that most of his peripherals aren't all that different than what he has done for most of his career (and some have even improved BB rate), and that the one outlier is his HR/FB and HR/9 rates, which can easily be explained by bad luck in a short samplings and can be expected to normalize as the sample size grows. That's a totally reasonable position, and the complete opposite of the one you presented.

[yankees228]

"Why did the Yankees release Chien-Ming Wang? He had a 2.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP at Triple-A and he now has a 2.61 ERA at he major league level after shutting down the Rangers and O's in consecutive starts."

 

"Why is Shawn Kelly on the Yankees and not Chien-Ming Wang? All the Yankees had to do to keep Wang is call him up, right?"

 

That's not you claiming that the Yankees should not have released CMW? That's how I read it. Those are pretty clearly leading questions, and the implication is obvious.

[Standing Room]

"Why did the Yankees release Chien-Ming Wang? He had a 2.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP at Triple-A and he now has a 2.61 ERA at he major league level after shutting down the Rangers and O's in consecutive starts."

 

"Why is Shawn Kelly on the Yankees and not Chien-Ming Wang? All the Yankees had to do to keep Wang is call him up, right?"

 

That's not you claiming that the Yankees should not have released CMW? That's how I read it. Those are pretty clearly leading questions, and the implication is obvious.

 

Like I said, I never stated that the Yankees should not have released Wang based on two major league starts. You just proved me right.

[Standing Room]

It's funny because you can very easily say that most of his peripherals aren't all that different than what he has done for most of his career (and some have even improved BB rate), and that the one outlier is his HR/FB and HR/9 rates, which can easily be explained by bad luck in a short samplings and can be expected to normalize as the sample size grows. That's a totally reasonable position, and the complete opposite of the one you presented.

 

Nice try. Velocty, strike out rate, home run rate are at career worst levels.

 

Am I correct in thinking that your position is that Sabathia has been unlucky and his 2 mph loss of velocity is a non-factor? Or are you just being stubborn about admitting that his loss of velocity is a factor?