2013 Red Sox predictions.

[rjortiz]

I think that De La Rosa kicks Lackey out of the rotation at some point this season.

[a700hitter]

I would much, much, much rather have guys like De La Rosa, Morales, or Aceves who may not be able to throw 200 IP, but will give you 100 IP of 4.2-4.4 ERA baseball, as opposed to last year having a guy like Aaron Cook who can throw 200 IP but will give you 5.70 ERA.

 

If someone goes down for a full season, it may have to be a collaborative effort to make up his innings, or they can look externally at the trade deadline to fill the hole if there is too much workload being put on some of the fill in starters because, at that point, the fill ins still wouldn't have bumped up to their innings limits.

 

The fact that we have Aceves, Morales, and De La Rosa makes me much more comfortable with the back end of our rotation this year than I would be if we had Cook and DiceK back there. And it's not close. I actually feel relatively comfortable with the back 3 of our rotation right now, knowing we have some pretty talented guys waiting in the wings to take over in case of underperformance and/or injury.

Cook was a horrible depth option. He has been a MASH unit of injuries for several seasons. I can't remember the last time that he pitched close to 200 innings. Plus, he stinks. Please be reminded that we had Morales last year. I wouldn't expect a lot more from him this year-- maybe 100 innings. We just disagree on the adequacy of our starting pitching and our depth.

[jung]

None of these guys are busting down the doors of the starting rotation though and that in itself is a problem. DeLaRosa may "bust down the doors" next year but I don't see it happening this year. So you have a pretty nondescript rotation with none of the guys waiting in the wings looking like they can bust down the doors of even that.

 

If it looked like a great rotation you could rationalize that none of these guys look like they will be battering their way into it. But this is not a great rotation and it still does not look like any of the guys mentioned will bust their way in. They will get there if somebody goes down or if somebody is just a complete fail.

 

The Sox will likely give Lackey plenty of rope hoping that he shows enough stuff to entice some team to think he can help them if they look like they are making a run at the later part of the season. The opportunity to end up with a prospect haul out of something like that probably means that Lackey will be there, given plenty of rope and won't be pulled out of the rotation. I think the Sox would hold onto that possibility at all costs, even to a fault.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Cook was a horrible depth option. He has been a MASH unit of injuries for several seasons. I can't remember the last time that he pitched close to 200 innings. Plus, he stinks. Please be reminded that we had Morales last year. I wouldn't expect a lot more from him this year-- maybe 100 innings. We just disagree on the adequacy of our starting pitching and our depth.

 

Yes. We had Morales. And he posted a 4.14 ERA in his starts. That's why I think he's a very solid depth option, because of his success in that role last year, and the fact that he can build on his 2012 innings (a 30% increase would get him to around 100 IP, which we agree on).

 

Getting 100 innings of 4.15 ERA production from your #6 man is brilliant. I don't know why this would be inadequate.

[SoxFanForsyth]

None of these guys are busting down the doors of the starting rotation though and that in itself is a problem. DeLaRosa may "bust down the doors" next year but I don't see it happening this year. So you have a pretty nondescript rotation with none of the guys waiting in the wings looking like they can bust down the doors of even that.

 

If it looked like a great rotation you could rationalize that none of these guys look like they will be battering their way into it. But this is not a great rotation and it still does not look like any of the guys mentioned will bust their way in. They will get there if somebody goes down or if somebody is just a complete fail.

 

The Sox will likely give Lackey plenty of rope hoping that he shows enough stuff to entice some team to think he can help them if they look like they are making a run at the later part of the season. The opportunity to end up with a prospect haul out of something like that probably means that Lackey will be there, given plenty of rope and won't be pulled out of the rotation. I think the Sox would hold onto that possibility at all costs, even to a fault.

 

De La Rosa had to have surgery 2 years ago, but he was ready to return last year before being sent back down to AA and not pitching bc he was the PTBNL. He posted a 3.86 ERA as a 22 year old in 10 starts. He is a very good depth option.

 

I don't understand it. The expectations for depth is entirely, entirely too high. People want Felix Hernandez to be our #8 starter. You don't get that. If you have guys like Morales, Aceves, and De La Rosa as your #6-8 starters, you're in damn good shape in terms of depth.

 

The fact that any of those 3 can probably outperform our #5 starter (Lackey) is not a reflection on our depth. It's more of a reflection that that depth isn't ready to pitch 210 IP right now. The FO wants to see if they can salvage any value out of Lackey, and rightfully so. If he can give us 160 IP of 2010 numbers (4.40 ERA), I think we'd all be be very happy to supplement him with 60 innings of Morales's starts (4.15 ERA, ~10 starts).

[jung]

But you can not look at the predicament the Sox are in and have more than hope that they might contend for something. For example you can't look at the very real possibility that the Sox are going to just let Lackey suck if he does and keep tossing him out there in hopes that he can entice some team and then in the same breadth say that this is a team that exudes more than just hope that it might contend for something. Those two perspectives on how the Sox may very likely address this season are in complete opposition to each other.

 

I agree that it makes perfect sense that the Sox will try to suck somebody in on Lackey by the trade deadline. But I can't look at things like that and then in the same breadth say that they have anything more than a hope in hell of competing for anything. Lackey is not the only sign post in the road either.

 

My comment about the guys waiting in the wings is the same sort of thing. If this were a great rotation you would without reservation rationalize that none of those guys will likely be really able to compete for one of those rotation spots in the spring. Unless somebody gets hurt in the spring or is a total total fail in the spring or the Sox do make a move and bring in another guy, we know today who is in the rotation and who is not. If it were a great rotation or even a really good rotation that would be completely palatable. But its not a great rotation or even a really good rotation.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's the thing though. Nobody is saying this is a good rotation. This is a very adequate, middle of the pack rotation. But when you pair it with a top 5 offense an the best bullpen in the AL, and strong depth, you've got a team that is certainly going to be in the mix.

 

Like I said, give me 5 teams in the AL that you think are better than the Sox. You can't, not with any certainty.

[jung]

But are there that many teams in the AL living on such a thin wire as the Sox are.

 

We spend a lotta' time talking about the rotation and rightfully so. So lets talk about this vaunted offense.

 

For example....take Ortiz who is known to have issues before the first pitch is thrown this year out of this lineup and where are they? We just got through almost the entirety of the pro football season so some of what happened there should be fresh in our minds. A number of guys that went down with Achilles related injuries in this year's NFL season were guys with known Achilles issues and the thing finally just blew up on them. There are a couple guys that will be in this Red Sox lineup that might go down and it won't be huge big deal. But not many and without question the most important of them from the offensive perspective is Ortiz and yet in truth he is damaged goods. His Achilles is not getting better particularly at his age. It will be an injury that he survives this season or he does not. If he does not, there is nobody that fills that hole in this lineup. If anything the Sox have more of that going on this year than they had last year. Do the Sox really have anybody that would come close to replacing Napoli's bat or Pedey's for any length of time. I would say that Ells and maybe, MAYBE WMB are the only guys that we can say we have some confidence can be replaced. But....you are going to replace Ells with somebody that is already slated for the lineup. So you move Victorino to center and guess what...now that Kalish is in trouble you are staring Danial Nava in the face again. I no longer know what to think about Kalish. Talk about a walking Mash unit....good God! But you don't have to get farther into the discussion that Ortiz to be in trouble and clearly he will enter the season in a very fragile state.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But are there that many teams in the AL living on such a thin wire as the Sox are.

 

We spend a lotta' time talking about the rotation and rightfully so. So lets talk about this vaunted offense.

 

For example....take Ortiz who is known to have issues before the first pitch is thrown this year out of this lineup and where are they? We just got through almost the entirety of the pro football season so some of what happened there should be fresh in our minds. A number of guys that went down with Achilles related injuries in this year's NFL season were guys with known Achilles issues and the thing finally just blew up on them. There are a couple guys that will be in this Red Sox lineup that might go down and it won't be huge big deal. But not many and without question the most important of them from the offensive perspective is Ortiz and yet in truth he is damaged goods. His Achilles is not getting better particularly at his age. It will be an injury that he survives this season or he does not. If he does not, there is nobody that fills that hole in this lineup. If anything the Sox have more of that going on this year than they had last year. Do the Sox really have anybody that would come close to replacing Napoli's bat or Pedey's for any length of time. I would say that Ells and maybe, MAYBE WMB are the only guys that we can say we have some confidence can be replaced. But....you are going to replace Ells with somebody that is already slated for the lineup. So you move Victorino to center and guess what...now that Kalish is in trouble you are staring Danial Nava in the face again. I no longer know what to think about Kalish. Talk about a walking Mash unit....good God! But you don't have to get farther into the discussion that Ortiz to be in trouble and clearly he will enter the season in a very fragile state.

 

You can say that about any offense outside of the Tigers and Angels.

 

Where are the Yankees if Cano goes down? Where are the Rangers if Beltre goes down? I mean if you're just going to project injuries, then every team is screwed.

 

Don't forget that the Sox have Bryce Brentz waiting to be called up, and I'm sure Bogaerts could hold his own if he had to, not to mention Jackie Bradley could fill in as well.

 

Ortiz's injury appears to be healed, per Farrell:

 

Ortiz's recovery going well: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox manager John Farrell said designated hitter David Ortiz (Achilles) is on track to participate fully in spring training. Ortiz indicated in December he wasn't 100 percent and he was hoping to be ready for spring training.

(Updated 1/22/13)

 

Not to mention he's going to be a DH. He's not a football player where he's taking a huge physical toll on it. He hits 4-5 times a game. That's it.

 

At this point, projecting injuries to every key player and saying the Sox don't have a good offense because of it is ridiculous.

[jung]

So he is not 100% in December and but will be by spring training. I would suggest that his Achilles will never be 100% again and that all you have to do to blow out an Achilles is run. Nobody has to hit you ala' football or anything and Achilles injuries in football rarely have anything to do with contact....they are injuries that occur while running. All you have to do is run. So unless they plan on carting him around the bases in a wheelchair he will be very much in danger of blowing that thing out and that is the dif between him and some of the other guys around the league you might want to talk about. Some have had knees and subsequent knee surgeries, some have had this and that. I don't see anybody as important to their offense as Ortiz is to the Red Sox offense that will be on ice as thin as Ortiz will be on. Just as a reminder....how did he reinjure it last year.....running the bases.

[a700hitter]

I don't understand it. The expectations for depth is entirely, entirely too high. People want Felix Hernandez to be our #8 starter. You don't get that. If you have guys like Morales, Aceves, and De La Rosa as your #6-8 starters, you're in damn good shape in terms of depth.

The depth would be okay if we had a couple of lights out studs at the top of the rotation. We don't have that. We have at best two #2's. More likely, we have two 3's and three 4/5's. A rotation like that need better depth, because the top is not strong enough to get it through rough patches. Depth would have been Jurjens or Marcum. Those would have been good,effective signings, and cost controlled.

[jung]

And I don't see any chance unless the whole team goes down in a plane crash of seeing any of the B's up here with the possible exception of one in the September call ups. No..... If Ells goes down, Victorino will move to center and we will be treated to game after game of Daniel Nava. It will get to the point where we welcome him about the way we welcomed Mc-dime and I like Nava.

[Lucienbel]

The depth would be okay if we had a couple of lights out studs at the top of the rotation. We don't have that. We have at best two #2's. More likely, we have two 3's and three 4/5's. A rotation like that need better depth, because the top is not strong enough to get it through rough patches. Depth would have been Jurjens or Marcum. Those would have been good,effective signings, and cost controlled.

 

Completely agreed and well put. While Aceves and Morales have shown that they can spot start I don't think there's a whole lot more to it than that. If someone in the rotation goes down for a start or two Aceves and Morales will be good options. If someone goes down for a long time I'm skeptical they could hold it down. With that said, if Lester or Buchholz go down or don't pitch up to par, I'm even more skeptical of what these guys would do in the rotation (not saying they'd take Lester or Buch's slot necessarily, but if they're pitching bad and then Aceves or Morales has to come in for Lackey or Dempster or someone like that for a bit it could get real ugly again).

[SoxFanForsyth]

And I don't see any chance unless the whole team goes down in a plane crash of seeing any of the B's up here with the possible exception of one in the September call ups. No..... If Ells goes down, Victorino will move to center and we will be treated to game after game of Daniel Nava. It will get to the point where we welcome him about the way we welcomed Mc-dime and I like Nava.

 

Brentz is in literally the exact same situation that Middlebrooks was in last year. If Ells (or any of the starting OF) goes down, Brentz will be called up as long as he's holding his own at AAA.

[SoxSport]

Lackey may surprise a few people this year. I understand he's slimmed down--drinking lite beer and using some of Boggs' old low fat chicken recipes. He figures he has something to prove. Tommy Johns sometimes come back better than they were. Tommy John did.

[FredLynn]

I think that De La Rosa kicks Lackey out of the rotation at some point this season.

 

Thats a tough call: Lackey is being paid I think $16M this year. Do you really think they will let him sit and pay him that kind of money?

[wyo-sox]

I would sure like to see Morales stretched into more of a regular starter should one of the starters get hurt or perform poorly. He is pretty young, throws as hard and aggressive as anyone we have, and had a great era with Salty if I remember correctly (could be wrong just going off memory) I saw no reason to think he could not give more innings.

[wyo-sox]

Thats a tough call: Lackey is being paid I think $16M this year. Do you really think they will let him sit and pay him that kind of money?

 

If I am a gm or manager and that 16 mill. is getting lit up, losing games, wearing out my defense and demoralizing the team game after game...... then I see the 16 mill. worth more sitting on the bench. The money is spent either way.

[Palodios]

I don't think Farrell will tolerate 2011 Lackey.

 

Tito would sit in the clubhouse, watch him give up 6-7 runs, smile and say, "that's just Lackey being Lackey". I bet Farrell is more likely to bench him.

[KrisBryant23USD]

If I am a gm or manager and that 16 mill. is getting lit up, losing games, wearing out my defense and demoralizing the team game after game...... then I see the 16 mill. worth more sitting on the bench. The money is spent either way.

 

 

Hopefully Lackey doesnt Become a 16 mil dollar paper weight. But with the last year of his contract being exercised because of His Shoulder problems. His contract doesnt look so bad And at some point we might even be able to move it if lackey is isnt a total disaster.

[jung]

I would be willing to bet that Lackey would have to be total suckage to get boosted from the rotation. He could still be pretty terrible and not be total suckage.

 

The thing is you have to think GM's would cut him some slack on a sucky first half and you would have to think that the Sox know that. So even if he was not pitching all that good in the first half, if he got his bearings at all, even if at the end of the first half, you would have to think he would have some attraction for a team making a run looking for a pitcher and could bring back a decent return in prospects. So again, I would think that unless he was total suckage, the Sox would hang with him and hope to get a return out of him in a pre-trade deadline transaction even if they had to hold their nose doing it.

 

Lackey may do a pretty good job. I don't know if it is necessarily a good thing but I think he will take the ball as often as the Sox want to give it to him in 2013 and he will pitch as good and as long as he can every time he takes the ball.

[FredLynn]

Hopefully Lackey doesnt Become a 16 mil dollar paper weight. But with the last year of his contract being exercised because of His Shoulder problems. His contract doesnt look so bad And at some point we might even be able to move it if lackey is isnt a total disaster.

 

There is an "out" if the elbow problems he had before he arrived cause him to miss a significant amount of time, but no mention of his shoulder being able to void his contract. Here is what his contract says: "2015 club option at Major League minimum if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14" Not sure if TJ surgery was even on the same elbow that was an issue before he came here.

[wyo-sox]

I would be willing to bet that Lackey would have to be total suckage to get boosted from the rotation. He could still be pretty terrible and not be total suckage.

 

The thing is you have to think GM's would cut him some slack on a sucky first half and you would have to think that the Sox know that. So even if he was not pitching all that good in the first half, if he got his bearings at all, even if at the end of the first half, you would have to think he would have some attraction for a team making a run looking for a pitcher and could bring back a decent return in prospects. So again, I would think that unless he was total suckage, the Sox would hang with him and hope to get a return out of him in a pre-trade deadline transaction even if they had to hold their nose doing it.

 

Lackey may do a pretty good job. I don't know if it is necessarily a good thing but I think he will take the ball as often as the Sox want to give it to him in 2013 and he will pitch as good and as long as he can every time he takes the ball.

 

Well said. I agree 100%.

[KrisBryant23USD]

There is an "out" if the elbow problems he had before he arrived cause him to miss a significant amount of time, but no mention of his shoulder being able to void his contract. Here is what his contract says: "2015 club option at Major League minimum if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14" Not sure if TJ surgery was even on the same elbow that was an issue before he came here.

 

Not to sound like a smart ass but i dont think the Red sox where worried about Lackeys Non Throwing Arm before he came here. i would guess that the problem the red sox Saw was relating to his throwing Arm/Elbow. I would also Guess that the TJ surgery Lackey had Falls under the Clause in his contract that You just mentioned. If lackey Can Atleast be a 4-5 ERA pitcher im sure alot of teams would find him attractive in a trade, Especially with that last year at the vet minimum.

[FredLynn]

Not to sound like a smart ass but i dont think the Red sox where worried about Lackeys Non Throwing Arm before he came here. i would guess that the problem the red sox Saw was relating to his throwing Arm/Elbow. I would also Guess that the TJ surgery Lackey had Falls under the Clause in his contract that You just mentioned. If lackey Can Atleast be a 4-5 ERA pitcher im sure alot of teams would find him attractive in a trade, Especially with that last year at the vet minimum.

 

My bad. You are right. I wonder if the problems he had with the Sox could be considered a "new injury" and are therefore exempt under his contract.

[KrisBryant23USD]

My bad. You are right. I wonder if the problems he had with the Sox could be considered a "new injury" and are therefore exempt under his contract.

 

If Lackey tried to pull that Crap saying it was a "New injury" And wasnt related to the one the Sox where worried about before he came here and therefore the option Couldnt/Shouldnt be exercised, Then thats really Shady on Lackeys Part. With all the Crap and ******** he's Pulled while he's been here, He owes us that extra year at the Vet min. And if he refused and i where the sox front office i would make Lackeys life miserable Because the Douchebag deserves it.

[seabeachfred]

If Lackey tried to pull that Crap saying it was a "New injury" And wasnt related to the one the Sox where worried about before he came here and therefore the option Couldnt/Shouldnt be exercised, Then thats really Shady on Lackeys Part. With all the Crap and ******** he's Pulled while he's been here, He owes us that extra year at the Vet min. And if he refused and i where the sox front office i would make Lackeys life miserable Because the Douchebag deserves it.

 

Some pretty interesting and damn good posts on this thread today but when I cut through all the various and sundry opinions the thing I am left with is that Lester and Buchholz have to perform top notch this season. No excuses, no bitching and the umpires, no breaking down, but two solid pitching performances for the season. We know they've shown they can do it in the past, they're both still young and from what I hear both are healthy and raring to go. The piss-poor medical staff we've had the past few years has to keep them in shape and also do a better job than in the past. As for Lackey, I know the guy is a gamer and a tough competitor. Don't be surprised if he comes back and has a solid season. Someone mentioned Dempster taking care of the lower echelon teams and getting hammered by most of the good teams. Could be. I think Doubrant has to show he is not some crud and is the kind of pitcher the Red Sox envisioned him to be.

 

All in all this whole season is up in the air and starting pitcher is where it is at. The team that has that can do very well. We have to get more from these guys than we did last year or we could be toast.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Fred you're exactly right. This season hinges on Lester and Buchholz.

 

Fortunately they have a fantastic history with Farrell, and I really think not enough credit is being given to him for Lester and Buchs success. I think he's the kind of guy who inspires confidence in those pitchers because they trust that he knows what he's talking about. I know he's not the pitching coach, but I certainly think he will still have that same effect on them.

 

Both Lester and Buchholz had their best years when Farrell was here, that's undeniable. How much he contributed to those years is subject to opinion, but I for one believe he contributes a good bit.

[wyo-sox]

Let's hope!

[a700hitter]

Fred you're exactly right. This season hinges on Lester and Buchholz.

 

Fortunately they have a fantastic history with Farrell, and I really think not enough credit is being given to him for Lester and Buchs success. I think he's the kind of guy who inspires confidence in those pitchers because they trust that he knows what he's talking about. I know he's not the pitching coach, but I certainly think he will still have that same effect on them.

 

Both Lester and Buchholz had their best years when Farrell was here, that's undeniable. How much he contributed to those years is subject to opinion, but I for one believe he contributes a good bit.

They should get rid of Salty. That will help just in case Farrell is notsuch a guru. Ricky Romwero fell apart completely on Farrell's watch in Toronto.