RS sign S Drew

[jopete19]

Stupid move.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Aviles had a season of a .833 OPS, and one of a .748 OPS.

 

Aviles's career OPS is .715 with a UZR/150 of 9.3.

Drew's career OPS is .762 with a UZR/150 of -4.3.

 

I would argue that the differences are negligible. Fenway Park may be a good thing for Drew, but as it stands right now, the Farrell trade is looking very ugly.

 

Stephen Drew walks more than twice as much as Aviles.

 

Stephen Drew can OBP over .300 even when he has a down year, and hits .223. Aviles hit .250 and had an OBP of .282.

 

Aviles was awful last year. Especially as the games started piling up. He's good for about 75-80 games. Then fatigue catches up to him. From game 81-136 last year, Aviles hit .230/.281/.328. That's a .609 OPS. Iglesias can give us a .609 OPS.

 

A bump of nearly 50 points in OPS is certainly not something to turn your nose at.

 

The thing is - Stephen Drew has put up these numbers with a broken ankle. Aviles put up his numbers fully healthy, while getting half his AB's at an extremely RH friendly park.

[mvp 78]

How does this signing pertain to Farrell?

[redsoxrules]

How does this signing pertain to Farrell?

 

The Jays received Aviles in the Farrell Trade

[mvp 78]

The Jays received Aviles in the Farrell Trade

 

So? They clearly had moved on from him last year as he spent more time on the bench in September than any other "starter."

[redsoxrules]

So? They clearly had moved on from him last year as he spent more time on the bench in September than any other "starter."

 

Yes, but people think that Drew = Aviles witch I totally disagree

[Palodios]

Stephen Drew walks more than twice as much as Aviles.

 

Stephen Drew can OBP over .300 even when he has a down year, and hits .223. Aviles hit .250 and had an OBP of .282.

 

Aviles was awful last year. Especially as the games started piling up. He's good for about 75-80 games. Then fatigue catches up to him. From game 81-136 last year, Aviles hit .230/.281/.328. That's a .609 OPS. Iglesias can give us a .609 OPS.

 

A bump of nearly 50 points in OPS is certainly not something to turn your nose at.

 

The thing is - Stephen Drew has put up these numbers with a broken ankle. Aviles put up his numbers fully healthy, while getting half his AB's at an extremely RH friendly park.

 

You're ignoring that Aviles has been a significantly better defender at SS than Drew is. That is why I make the claim that it balances out.

 

Aviles also thrives in high pressure situations-- .956 OPS with RISP and 2 outs. Drew? .729 OPS in those situations.

 

Aviles is also coming off a healthy season.

[Palodios]

Yes, but people think that Drew = Aviles witch I totally disagree

 

Why?

[redsoxrules]

Why?

 

Because Drew's last few seasons he was hurt and it affected his production .

[Station 13]

Because Drew's last few seasons he was hurt and it affected his production .

 

It wasn't that long ago he was a 5.1 WAR player. Even half of that is a huge plus.

[mvp 78]

Aviles only played 3 out of the last 15 games. The Sox didn't want him around anymore. Is Drew better, seems like it didn't matter to the FO.

[Palodios]

It wasn't that long ago he was a 5.1 WAR player. Even half of that is a huge plus.

 

In Avile's rookie season, he had a 4.4 WAR, in only 100 games. They're both mediocre shortstops who will produce an OPS in the low .700s. Neither would be a game-changer. For the difference in the bat, Aviles makes up with his glove.

[Station 13]

Aviles only played 3 out of the last 15 games. The Sox didn't want him around anymore. Is Drew better, seems like it didn't matter to the FO.

 

They were trying to give Iggy a chance and cut into Aviles playing time, not because they didn't want him anymore.

 

Just a shot in the dark, I think Iggy will be out of this organization within 2 year. He's been a waste of money and time.

[Station 13]

In Avile's rookie season, he had a 4.4 WAR, in only 100 games. They're both mediocre shortstops who will produce an OPS in the low .700s. Neither would be a game-changer. For the difference in the bat, Aviles makes up with his glove.

 

There's only a few stud SS. Getting .700 OPS out of it would make most clubs happy.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In Avile's rookie season, he had a 4.4 WAR, in only 100 games. They're both mediocre shortstops who will produce an OPS in the low .700s. Neither would be a game-changer. For the difference in the bat, Aviles makes up with his glove.

 

Drew has a career .762 OPS. That's not a low .700's OPS.

 

And Aviles's 4.4 WAR season was fueled by an insane .357 BABIP. Drew's 5.1 WAR season came with a sustainable .321 BABIP.

 

Not to mention Drew crushes Aviles in wRC+ and wOBA.

 

Until he got hurt, Stephen Drew was a top 3 SS in terms of OPS, only behind HanRam and Tulo.

[Palodios]

Drew has a career .762 OPS. That's not a low .700's OPS.

 

And Aviles's 4.4 WAR season was fueled by an insane .357 BABIP. Drew's 5.1 WAR season came with a sustainable .321 BABIP.

 

Not to mention Drew crushes Aviles in wRC+ and wOBA.

 

Until he got hurt, Stephen Drew was a top 3 SS in terms of OPS, only behind HanRam and Tulo.

 

Drew has had exactly one season with a WAR above 2.2. He has had exactly two qualified seasons about a .750 OPS. I understand he's a Red Sox now, but be reasonable here.

 

Jeter has had a higher OPS than Drew, for certain, and wasn't a failure of a base-stealer. Asdrubal's career OPS is nearly identical, Castro too. Scutaro has been very similar over the last few years, but has a better OBP, with lower slug.

 

Reyes? Furcal? Ramirez? There are plenty of guys hovering around the same .750 OPS that Drew is at.

[SoxFan02]

In Avile's rookie season, he had a 4.4 WAR, in only 100 games. They're both mediocre shortstops who will produce an OPS in the low .700s. Neither would be a game-changer. For the difference in the bat, Aviles makes up with his glove.

 

Where are you getting that Aviles is better with the glove than Drew? In the last three seasons Drew has a UZR of +8 at short. Before he came to Boston most people (including KC) didn't think Aviles could still play short consistently because of his arm troubles that sidelined him in 2009. I don't think that Drew is anything more than average at short but saying that aviles is any better after one decent statistical year in Boston isn't very fair. On the other hand Drew hit for an .800 OPS in the three season before injuring himself in 2011 (over 1800 PA). Aviles has never be able to replicate that type of performance consistently over even a third of the PA during his career. There is very little doubt that Drew is a considerably better SS then Aviles when both are healthy. The question is whether Drew can remain healthy, however since the Sox have the available resources this year I don't see any reason why signing a guy that has the potential to be a top 5-10 SS in the league to a one year deal should be considered anything but a home run.

[SoxSport]

I doubt Drew has the same range he had a few years ago, before he broke his ankle. He'll be servicaeble for one year, but he has to hit his career norm to be worth $10 million.

[Lord Snow]

Stephen Drew walks more than twice as much as Aviles.

 

Stephen Drew can OBP over .300 even when he has a down year, and hits .223. Aviles hit .250 and had an OBP of .282.

 

Aviles was awful last year. Especially as the games started piling up. He's good for about 75-80 games. Then fatigue catches up to him. From game 81-136 last year, Aviles hit .230/.281/.328. That's a .609 OPS. Iglesias can give us a .609 OPS.

 

A bump of nearly 50 points in OPS is certainly not something to turn your nose at.

 

The thing is - Stephen Drew has put up these numbers with a broken ankle. Aviles put up his numbers fully healthy, while getting half his AB's at an extremely RH friendly park.

 

On what planet is that statistic an argument in favor of a player? A .300 OBP is horrible. Anything less than .340 is not respectable. And that .340 mark should be the lowest that is tolerated in a starting line-up. We put up with Salty because we don't have a better option and he has some pop.

[Lord Snow]

BTW I love how there is currently a "who is worse" argument about Mike Aviles and Stephen Drew. Always what you want to hear after your team spends $10 million on a player....

 

:/

[Lord Snow]

I doubt Drew has the same range he had a few years ago, before he broke his ankle. He'll be servicaeble for one year, but he has to hit his career norm to be worth $10 million.

 

Anything less than league average defense and an .800 OPS and Drew is not worth the $10M he is being paid.

 

Drew is no slam dunk for an .800 OPS either, I don't even know if we can earmark him for a .700 OPS.

[Bellhorn04]

On what planet is that statistic an argument in favor of a player? A .300 OBP is horrible. Anything less than .340 is not respectable. And that .340 mark should be the lowest that is tolerated in a starting line-up. We put up with Salty because we don't have a better option and he has some pop.

 

Not true. The average OBP for a major league shortstop last year was only .310. A .335 OBP for a shortstop is well above average.

[jung]

Neither one of them can be distinguished by their gloves at SS. Sometimes we just cut these numbers to finely.

 

SS is the only position on the field where you have to judge the player based on the opportunity the position presents to negate the opponent's offensive thrust. You cannot judge a SS just by the number of normal everyday plays that he makes and you cannot even judge him by the number of errors that he makes the way errors are tallied in baseball.

 

A really good SS is like a good goalie in hockey. Both can really frustrate your team. You have runners on 1st and 3rd with one out or on 1st and 2nd with no outs and your hitter hits one in the general vicinity of SS. Suddenly the SS comes from nowhere and snuffs out your rally with a killing DP on a ball he had no business getting to and corralling and you out of the inning no runs scored.

 

Neither Drew nor Aviles have the capability to make those sorts of plays from SS. Regrettably there are few SS that can any longer. In the era when pitching truly dominated baseball there were SS's making magical plays virtually every day. However neither Drew nor Aviles even sniff plays like that from SS. Part of the problem with the Sox and their approach to SS is that they are so focused on hitting from the SS position that they hardly consider how much a really good defensive SS can blunt the opponents offense and help your weak pitching staff.

[Palodios]

Where are you getting that Aviles is better with the glove than Drew? In the last three seasons Drew has a UZR of +8 at short. Before he came to Boston most people (including KC) didn't think Aviles could still play short consistently because of his arm troubles that sidelined him in 2009. I

 

Drew has had many ups and down defensively at SS-- some good years, some bad. For their careers, Drew has had a UZR/150 of -4.6. Aviles is at 9.3. I would say that is obviously in favor of Aviles.

[Lord Snow]

After this Stephen Drew signing suddenly Derek Jeter at $15M/year doesn't look so bad.

[redsoxfan3]

I don't like the 9.5 million for Drew, but it is just a one year contract. We are getting closer to the luxury tax. The positive is that it is just one year and he could have a bounce back year. We do not know what to expect from Iglesias' bat at SS, but at least I have a little more confidence at SS with Drew.

[Lord Snow]

I don't like the 9.5 million for Drew, but it is just a one year contract. We are getting closer to the luxury tax. The positive is that it is just one year and he could have a bounce back year. We do not know what to expect from Iglesias' bat at SS, but at least I have a little more confidence at SS with Drew.

 

Yes we do. Mendoza line average, low OBP, low SLG. Worst everyday major league hitter.

[redsoxfan3]

Yes we do. Mendoza line average, low OBP, low SLG. Worst everyday major league hitter.

 

No we don't. The only thing we know is that he will be an elite defender. We do not know for sure how he will hit. Odds are his bat is not that good, but that is not a guarantee. That is like saying we know for sure that Ortiz is going to be a .300 hitter with 25+ homers. Things happen and Iglesias could surprise a few people. That is not all that realistic, but it could happen.

[Rick]

Let's not forget that Drew put up some decent numbers in a pitchers park when he played for Arizona and Oakland is exactly hitter friendly either. If he has 20 HR and 65+ RBI, he'll be a good signing.

[Palodios]

While I have been arguing in one direction, I am encouraged by Drew's splits last year. It looks like he started off playing poorly on the bum ankle and gradually improved every month.

 

June .167 .231 .167 .397

Jul .192 .277 .260 .537

Aug .205 .317 .352 .670

Sep .275 .342 .451 .793

 

Hopefully the ankle enjoys the offseason and we'll see a season closer to the .793 than the .397.