We just signed Dempster. What's next this offseason?

[beeee_c]

Thank you, iOrtiz. You just made my xmas card list... : ) All I'm looking for is everyone's best proposals... I know none of it is ideal.

 

This offseason is fun to follow, anyway. It's pretty dynamic.

[a700hitter]

It happens extremely frequently, actually. I ran through a pile of pitchers, and they pretty much all seemed to have something like that. Follow up a very bad year with a very good year. It happens.

 

Cliff Lee 2010-2011

Ra Dickey 2009-2010.

Dempster 2011-2012.

Liriano 2009-2010.

Dice-k 2007-2008.

Buchholz 2010-2011

Beckett 2006-2007

Beckett 2010-2011 (3 runs )

Interesting. I wouldn't have thought it had happened that often. This makes me feel much more optimistic about Lester.

[iortiz]

Welcome beee. I know that my wish list is just a pipe dream, seeing the way our FO has been executing since last offseason. We'll see though.

[SCM33]

Sounds like last season scenario Pal. A lot ?s, and you know what happened.

 

Hopefully this time the story is different.

 

The difference between this years team and last years team, is that last years club had terminal cancer.

 

We are cancer free this year. At least we have a shot of some success. We were screwed out of the gate last year.

[iortiz]

The difference between this years team and last years team, is that last years club had terminal cancer.

 

We are cancer free this year. At least we have a shot of some success. We were screwed out of the gate last year.

 

This is true. Plus I think Farrell >>> V and could help us to bounce back some arms like Aceves, Bard, Lester and Buch.

 

Geez, if we could get at least an extra solid arm (#2) and another bat I would be pleased.

[Orange Juiced]

The team that was immediately ahead of us--Toronto is the team that improved. I don't think the Sox have improved enough to pick up 20+ games. On the other teams.

 

At this point, here's the roster:

 

Lineup (roughly)

CF Ellsbury

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Napoli (I am assuming it goes through)

3b Middlebrooks

LF Gomes/Kalish

RF Victorino

C Lavarnway

SS Iglesias

 

Bench: Ross, Saltalamacchia, Ciriaco, Gomes/Kalish, Nava

 

Rotation: Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Lackey, Doubront/Morales

Bullpen: Doubront/Morales, Tazawa, Melancon, Breslow, Aceves, Bailey

 

Guys who are in the pipeline and who could help:

Gomez

Sands

De La Rosa

Bard

Miller

Webster

Barnes

Bradley Jr

Wilson

Brentz

 

That team right there should be a team that wins somewhere between 85-92 games. The lineup would be a top-5 lineup in the AL, and the bullpen, if it stays relatively healthy, should be pretty solid. The rotation is the key. You get the bad Lester, Buchholz can't stay healthy, and Dempster takes a dive in the AL East, and it could get pretty ugly. But if Lester bounces back (doesn't have to be Cy Young caliber Lester), Buchholz stays healthy, Dempster is what he normally is (which is above-average), Lackey pitches like he did in 2010 and not 2011, then that's actually one of the better rotations in the league, believe it or not.

 

Combine an above-average rotation (which is possible) with a solid bullpen and a top-level offense, and that's a pretty good team. With lots of talent coming up through the system.

 

Long story short: this team could be sneaky good with a very bright future.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If buchholz gives us 200 innings and Lester lowers his ERA by 2 runs we will be competitive. I wonder how many pitchers have lowered their ERAs by 2 runs from one year to the next.

 

If Lester gives a 3.32 era, we will be in good shape. That's only a drop of 1.5, not 2, and I'm sure there have been plenty of pitchers who have done that.

 

In fact, you don't have to look far at all. Dempster went from a 4.8 to a 3.38 from 2011 to 2012. Beckett had a massive history of fluctuations. Buchholz went from a 4.3 to a 2.3 from 2009 to 2010.

 

And let's not forget, Lester, Buch, and Lackey all had solid to fantastic years in 2010, when Farrell was last here. And for Buch, after that rusty start last year, he posted a 3.6 era in his final 23 starts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

At this point, here's the roster:

 

Lineup (roughly)

CF Ellsbury

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Napoli (I am assuming it goes through)

3b Middlebrooks

LF Gomes/Kalish

RF Victorino

C Lavarnway

SS Iglesias

 

Bench: Ross, Saltalamacchia, Ciriaco, Gomes/Kalish, Nava

 

Rotation: Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Lackey, Doubront/Morales

Bullpen: Doubront/Morales, Tazawa, Melancon, Breslow, Aceves, Bailey

 

Guys who are in the pipeline and who could help:

Gomez

Sands

De La Rosa

Bard

Miller

Webster

Barnes

Bradley Jr

Wilson

Brentz

 

That team right there should be a team that wins somewhere between 85-92 games. The lineup would be a top-5 lineup in the AL, and the bullpen, if it stays relatively healthy, should be pretty solid. The rotation is the key. You get the bad Lester, Buchholz can't stay healthy, and Dempster takes a dive in the AL East, and it could get pretty ugly. But if Lester bounces back (doesn't have to be Cy Young caliber Lester), Buchholz stays healthy, Dempster is what he normally is (which is above-average), Lackey pitches like he did in 2010 and not 2011, then that's actually one of the better rotations in the league, believe it or not.

 

Combine an above-average rotation (which is possible) with a solid bullpen and a top-level offense, and that's a pretty good team. With lots of talent coming up through the system.

 

Long story short: this team could be sneaky good with a very bright future.

 

Uehara will be in the pen. Bard will start in the bullpen too, in my opinion.

 

Jerry Sands will be on the team over Nava, since he can play OF and 1B, and he crushes LHP.

 

Also, since we have no pure 3 hitter, I like a top 6 of Ellsbury - Victorino - Pedroia - Ortiz - Napoli - WMB

[example1]

Uehara will be in the pen. Bard will start in the bullpen too, in my opinion.

 

Jerry Sands will be on the team over Nava, since he can play OF and 1B, and he crushes LHP.

 

Also, since we have no pure 3 hitter, I like a top 6 of Ellsbury - Victorino - Pedroia - Ortiz - Napoli - WMB

 

I think this team i begging for one more bat like Swisher. If there was any way they could pull off Swisher for 4 years it would be an ideal capstone for the club. Probably stick him in LF with some 1B.

 

Ellsbury (L)

Victorino (S)

Pedroia ®

Ortiz (L)

Napoli ®

Swisher (S)

Middlebrooks ®

Lavarnway/Salty (R/S)

Igleias ®

 

That's a pretty formidable lineup. It isn't like the Angels with Trout and Pujols and Hamilton, but in terms of L/R, patience, veterans, etc., it could certainly compete offenively.

 

I jut can't see this club going into 2013 with Gomes and Kalish as their LF. Of course, I ALSO can't really see them wanting to take on the additional risk asociated with signing anyone to a 4-5 year contract.

 

Their optimal situation is to sign players for the next 2-3 seasons who give them a reasonable chance to compete, while also having most of those players come off the books in time to rebuild again soon.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think this team i begging for one more bat like Swisher. If there was any way they could pull off Swisher for 4 years it would be an ideal capstone for the club. Probably stick him in LF with some 1B.

 

Ellsbury (L)

Victorino (S)

Pedroia ®

Ortiz (L)

Napoli ®

Swisher (S)

Middlebrooks ®

Lavarnway/Salty (R/S)

Igleias ®

 

That's a pretty formidable lineup. It isn't like the Angels with Trout and Pujols and Hamilton, but in terms of L/R, patience, veterans, etc., it could certainly compete offenively.

 

I jut can't see this club going into 2013 with Gomes and Kalish as their LF. Of course, I ALSO can't really see them wanting to take on the additional risk asociated with signing anyone to a 4-5 year contract.

 

Their optimal situation is to sign players for the next 2-3 seasons who give them a reasonable chance to compete, while also having most of those players come off the books in time to rebuild again soon.

 

I think one of their hopes is that Brentz will be ready to be the 2013 Middlebrooks by around June.

 

Also, I think Lavarnway is a much better hitter than he showed last year. Lets not forget, the guy hit 32 HR in 2011. He can be an impact bat as well.

 

Plus, you've got Bradley Jr who could be w the team in July if need be, so they certainly have options and impact bats

 

I think the lineup looks a bit weak right now because of the unknowns. But if Lavs comes up and hits like he can, Middlebrooks continues his success, Ells and Pedey play to their capabilities, Napoli can be a. 1.000 OPS guy when playing so many games at Fenway, this team can be a crazy good team offensively.

 

As for the pitchers, ill be pissed if Salty is still on this team when camp breaks. We cannot afford to have him behind the plate anymore.

[Orange Juiced]

Uehara will be in the pen. Bard will start in the bullpen too, in my opinion.

 

Jerry Sands will be on the team over Nava, since he can play OF and 1B, and he crushes LHP.

 

Also, since we have no pure 3 hitter, I like a top 6 of Ellsbury - Victorino - Pedroia - Ortiz - Napoli - WMB

 

Yeah, forgot about Uehara....thanks for the correction. He's a really nice addition to the pen.

[example1]

I think one of their hopes is that Brentz will be ready to be the 2013 Middlebrooks by around June.

 

Also, I think Lavarnway is a much better hitter than he showed last year. Lets not forget, the guy hit 32 HR in 2011. He can be an impact bat as well.

 

Plus, you've got Bradley Jr who could be w the team in July if need be, so they certainly have options and impact bats

 

I think the lineup looks a bit weak right now because of the unknowns. But if Lavs comes up and hits like he can, Middlebrooks continues his success, Ells and Pedey play to their capabilities, Napoli can be a. 1.000 OPS guy when playing so many games at Fenway, this team can be a crazy good team offensively.

 

As for the pitchers, ill be pissed if Salty is still on this team when camp breaks. We cannot afford to have him behind the plate anymore.

 

Each of these projections is a bit optimistic, but to think that some of them can happen is quite reasonable. Just as it is possible that Bradley Jr could contribute this year, it is also possible that even a minor injury (30 days) could derail that plan and have them keeping him in AA-AAA all season. That wouldn't be bad necessarily. Part of the whole "bridge year" thing has to do with maximizing the 6 years of cost-controlledness that these guys offer. So it wouldn't be ideal to start their Major League clocks prior to the team really being able to benefit from them.

 

All that said, I would be shocked if the ox didn't move aggressively to extend this group of prospects early on in their careers to avoid Papelbon/Ellsbury type situation if at all possible.

[MANNYHOF24]

If buchholz gives us 200 innings and Lester lowers his ERA by 2 runs we will be competitive. I wonder how many pitchers have lowered their ERAs by 2 runs from one year to the next.

 

I have faith he will, from May 30th on he pitched close to Ace level. The big question for me is Lester. If he can somehow some way regain his 2009-2010 form, the rotation could actually be very good.

[Lucienbel]

I like Marcum and Jurrjens a lot, along with Edwin Jackson as far as pitching goes. Marcum has always thrown the ball pretty well when he is out on the mound....sort of surprised he hasn't drawn more interest from teams. I'm also still baffled as to why this team has never had interest in Edwin Jackson.

[Bellhorn04]

I like Marcum and Jurrjens a lot, along with Edwin Jackson as far as pitching goes. Marcum has always thrown the ball pretty well when he is out on the mound....sort of surprised he hasn't drawn more interest from teams. I'm also still baffled as to why this team has never had interest in Edwin Jackson.

 

Perhaps because Jackson, while a sturdy innings-eater, has the most perfectly mediocre numbers you can find.

 

W-L 70-71

ERA 4.40

ERA+ 98

WHIP 1.44

 

Postseason ERA 5.46

[Palodios]

Perhaps because Jackson, while a sturdy innings-eater, has the most perfectly mediocre numbers you can find.

 

W-L 70-71

ERA 4.40

ERA+ 98

WHIP 1.44

 

Postseason ERA 5.46

 

Looking at Edwin Jackson's career numbers is not a very good screenshot of what his career has been. He came up to the majors very early -- 19 years old-- and was outmatched for the first four years-- his ERA in those years was 7.30, 6.28, 5.45 and 5.76. Here is what his numbers look like over the last four years.

 

W-L 45-41

ERA 3.98

ERA+ 106

WHIP 1.32

[Behindenemylines]

Not sure about Dempster in the AL East. He has a history of pitching a lot of innings, but if that comes with a high ERA in the AL then it could be a problem. There are rumors going around that the Jays are after Dickey. Its looking more and more based on off season moves within the division that the Sox are looking up at the rest of the teams in the division. 2013 has bridge written all over it. Based on all moves so far this off season the Sox are waiting for the youth.

[Bellhorn04]

Looking at Edwin Jackson's career numbers is not a very good screenshot of what his career has been. He came up to the majors very early -- 19 years old-- and was outmatched for the first four years-- his ERA in those years was 7.30, 6.28, 5.45 and 5.76. Here is what his numbers look like over the last four years.

 

W-L 45-41

ERA 3.98

ERA+ 106

WHIP 1.32

 

Good point.

[Behindenemylines]

Looking at Edwin Jackson's career numbers is not a very good screenshot of what his career has been. He came up to the majors very early -- 19 years old-- and was outmatched for the first four years-- his ERA in those years was 7.30, 6.28, 5.45 and 5.76. Here is what his numbers look like over the last four years.

 

W-L 45-41

ERA 3.98

ERA+ 106

WHIP 1.32

 

Plus he has had some success in the AL, unlike Dempster.

[SoxSport]

what's next? They may be through if they can settle the Napoli deal. Unless they trade Salty or Ells. Salty might be traded first, but where are the takers?

 

The Sox are up to $150 million, and they don't look that good, unless a lot of players step up and have good seasons. And no injuries.

[Spitball]

what's next? They may be through if they can settle the Napoli deal. Unless they trade Salty or Ells. Salty might be traded first, but where are the takers?

 

The Sox are up to $150 million, and they don't look that good, unless a lot of players step up and have good seasons. And no injuries.

 

With the shortage of quality catchers around baseball, Saltalamacchia will have some value.

[beeee_c]

Hemmingway had one of the best quotes about baseball... It comes from a short story called The Three Day Blow and it's about two guys sitting around a fire drinking whiskey and talking baseball and one of them says there's always more to it than we know. So true.

 

That's what makes it great.

 

I love trying to figure it all out.

 

Does anyone know if we have something the Guardians might want for Masterson and Cabrera? I think they'd make us a more solid club.

[Spitball]

Hemmingway had one of the best quotes about baseball... It comes from a short story called The Three Day Blow and it's about two guys sitting around a fire drinking whiskey and talking baseball and one of them says there's always more to it than we know. So true.

 

That's what makes it great.

 

I love trying to figure it all out.

 

Does anyone know if we have something the Guardians might want for Masterson and Cabrera? I think they'd make us a more solid club.

 

I don't think Cabrera is the answer at shortstop. If the D-backs prefered Didi Gregarius (see scouting reports) to Cabrera (who they could have aquired in Choo trade), then I do not think the Red sox want him.

[redsoxfan3]

MLBTR just had something about our interest in Drew. That is probably a decent option to help out at SS and infield depth. The job is Iglesias' to lose, but Drew would add more competition, especially with Ciriaco probably just being a utility player.

 

Marcum, Lohse, or Jackson would still be nice additions to the rotation. You can never have too much depth. I think with the addition of one of those guys, that it would provide us with a good amount of depth.

 

I think we also need to sign a guy like Brian Wilson. He has already stated interest in Boston or one of the L.A. teams. I think we need to take advantage of this and add him to our pen.

 

I still think we need to try to sign one of Swisher or Ross. We don't have a horrible OF, but we could still use another decent bat.

 

The IF is set with the Napoli signing, except maybe the addition of a SS.

 

We still need to figure out what to do with Salty. Either we trade him or send Lavarnway to AAA.

[jung]

Sending Lavs to AAA in this year of going nowhere is just plain stupid. However that would not be a surprise now would it.

[a700hitter]

Sending Lavs to AAA in this year of going nowhere is just plain stupid. However that would not be a surprise now would it.

We have 4 catchers with Napoli. One of them has to go. If they keep them all, Lavs will be rotting at AAA.

[redsoxfan3]

Sending Lavs to AAA in this year of going nowhere is just plain stupid. However that would not be a surprise now would it.

 

We are going to have a platoon between Lavarnway and Ross or Salty and Ross. It is not going to be all three, especially with the FO clearly stating Napoli will catch occasionally.

 

We have 4 catchers with Napoli. One of them has to go. If they keep them all, Lavs will be rotting at AAA.

 

Exactly. If we keep Salty, there is no room for Lavarnway in the majors. If we trade Salty, then we keep Lavarnway in the majors. There is also the possibility of trading Lavarnway.

[jung]

Sure lets trade the player with the upside so we can keep the player that we know like a book.....a dime novel for that matter.

 

As for trading for Drew....all the Drews and Napolis's and Swishers and Victorino's in this world are not going to lift this year's Sox team out of mid-pack at best..So why?

[NZSox]

We are going to have a platoon between Lavarnway and Ross or Salty and Ross. It is not going to be all three, especially with the FO clearly stating Napoli will catch occasionally.

 

 

 

Exactly. If we keep Salty, there is no room for Lavarnway in the majors. If we trade Salty, then we keep Lavarnway in the majors. There is also the possibility of trading Lavarnway.

 

We really do have to trade Salty IMO.

 

They just signed Ross, so Ross is here. Napoli will play 1B and cover C like they have said. Lavarnway is a prospect who's ready to contribute. Given the lack of 'quality' catchers on the market Salty is the obvious one to go.

 

We won't really miss him. Ross is a better defensive catcher, and Lavarnway can be a more consistent offensive weapon than Salty the K-machine.

 

The question for me is, do we package him with Ells for top calibre pitching return and get a guy to rival Lester and Clay for the 1 & 2 spots, or do we accept our mediocre rotation and use Salty by himself to shore up the pen? (point being that Salty won't bring a top SP unless Ells is in the deal, and even then, it might be wishful thinking)

[jung]

The rotation as it is is going to beat this pen like a drum....as it already has for two years running. I would try to get some additional rotation help either in the form of a one year deal to somebody left out there or a longer commitment involving a larger basket of players coming from our end.

 

As it is now, plan on seeing this pen with arms dragging by the end of this season AGAIN. Of course it makes it that much easier to blame our crummy pitching on those guys.

 

If they can't do anything in the rotation then I would try to secure anything and anybody that can throw for the pen in order to stave off the inevitable overuse of the guys that are there.