The Jacoby Ellsbury trade extravaganza thread

[BSN07]

I was thinking about trading him for Shields or Price. But, I don't really want to send a guy like Jacoby Ellsbury to a team that is in our division. It's very risky. Especially since the two Rays' pitchers never played for a big market team and you don't know if they could handle it.

TB is not trading anyone to the Sox.

Ellsbury isn't going to get a huge haul unless they add other pieces.

 

The type of trade the Sox would be looking at would be a trade for Lincecum. Couple guys coming off questionable seasons, left with 1 year until FA.

 

Lincecum made sense before SF re-signed Pagan. Now It's not a fit.

 

I think Bourn or Hamilton is going to have to come off the board before things pick up on Ellsbury.

 

btw when do winter meetings end? general question to anyone who knows

[jacksonianmarch]

I just don't see why the sox would be greasing the skids for Ellsbury right now unless someone is willing to overpay significantly. Ells suffered an injury that obviously sapped him of his power. Without any power, Ells is valuable, but certainly won't bring back a huge haul. If they deal him now, they are going to get 50 cents on the dollar. If he comes back to Boston, hits to his 2011 level and the sox are out of it, they can get a lot more in return for that production

[BSN07]

I just don't see why the sox would be greasing the skids for Ellsbury right now unless someone is willing to overpay significantly. Ells suffered an injury that obviously sapped him of his power. Without any power, Ells is valuable, but certainly won't bring back a huge haul. If they deal him now, they are going to get 50 cents on the dollar. If he comes back to Boston, hits to his 2011 level and the sox are out of it, they can get a lot more in return for that production

 

Let's see who they get before we decide if the sold low(if he's even moved at all).

[jacksonianmarch]

I hear ya there BSN, but I doubt anyone would be offering 2011 Ellsbury type return for the 2012 version. It's puzzling unless someone is willing to drastically overpay

[BSN07]

I hear ya there BSN, but I doubt anyone would be offering 2011 Ellsbury type return for the 2012 version. It's puzzling unless someone is willing to drastically overpay

 

I think it has to be a even or an overpay for them to move him now. They could easily hold on to him and look to move him later in the season for a SP as well.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think it has to be a even to overpay for them to move him now. They could easily hold on to him and look to move him later in the season for a SP as well.

 

Exactly, and if the ASB is coming up and Ells is on pace for another 30-30 season with a .300+ average, then the sox will get a massive haul

[BSN07]

Exactly, and if the ASB is coming up and Ells is on pace for another 30-30 season with a .300+ average, then the sox will get a massive haul

 

I wouldn't say massive, but a top prospect like NYM got for Beltran or part of a deal for a SP

[jacksonianmarch]

I wouldn't say massive, but a top prospect like NYM got for Beltran or part of a deal for a SP

 

If Ells performs to his level, a guy like Wheeler would be a part of a package rather than the whole deal.

[BSN07]

If Ells performs to his level, a guy like Wheeler would be a part of a package rather than the whole deal.

 

Could be. We will see.

[jung]

I think the Sox would get decent value for Ells if traded now. In the first place he will likely be part of a package and while it might be nice to wait to just before the ASB, Ells tends to run into things that are studier than he is, other players, walls, what have you. If he gets dinged before that ASB next year, the Sox are going to get nothing for Ells.

 

If they are going to get ripped off for Ells, then they don't make the trade. However if it comes down to nits and nats which is frankly more likely than half value, I would deal Ells now rather than risk seeing him hit the DL and end up getting nothing for him. While his injuries may look like flukes who cares...he has to many fluke injuries, tends to end up with big bone or big joint injuries like shoulder and takes a long time to come back from them. Ells may at the end of the day be to the Sox what Julian Edelman is to the Pats, a wonderful player that just cannot stay on the field enough.

 

I do agree though and would no doubt take the risk of injury and hold on to Ells if I could not strike a deal that was at least fair market value for him.

[iortiz]

Seems like Ells ain't going anywhere after reading what Ben said in that regard.

[Bellhorn04]

Seems like Ells ain't going anywhere after reading what Ben said in that regard.

 

I dunno, he didn't rule it out.

[jung]

Well, "we expect Ells to have a huge season" is exactly what you would say if you were trying to move him anyway.

[RedSoxNC84]

Well, "we expect Ells to have a huge season" is exactly what you would say if you were trying to move him anyway.

 

That comment certainly did seem suspicious. I still think they move him.

[rjortiz]

Posturing.

[SoxSport]

I suspect they have a fair idea of how to unload Ellsbury on short notice if they have to.

[NativeBostonian]

Apparently the Red Sox are still in talks with Josh Hamilton. That leads me to believe that there's something cooking. Pitching market isn't all that great this year. so, most likely the only way they are going to get the number one starter they desperately need is through a trade. Of course, they would need to package Ellsbury with a good player from their farm system. Maybe Ryan Lavarnway type of player.

[Palodios]

I would still be interested in a Ellsbury for Holland trade. What ever happened to that one?

[Spitball]

I would still be interested in a Ellsbury for Holland trade. What ever happened to that one?

 

Holland is under control through 2017. There is no way the Rangers trade him for a Boras client under control through next year.

[BSN07]

Holland is under control through 2017. There is no way the Rangers trade him for a Boras client under control through next year.

 

Yup whether we like it or not, the fact Ells is a Boras client is a knock on his value(not saying if he was with someone else the Sox could then get Holland, just a general statement).

[dupree]

Scott Boras being his agent is a big knock on teams believing they will be able to resign him.

I know that the BC & Farrell have both said they Ells would not be traded but a trade with Cincy prolly makes a lot of sense. Cincy needs a lead-off hitter & a center fielder. Th ey were a contender last year & they were a contender last year so one addition might just what they feel would get them over the hump

 

Ellsbury for Homer Bailey would be nice

 

Lester Bucholz Floyd Bailey Lackey/Doubrant

 

But if Ells stays which it is looking like more & more & Salty stays as well, the red sox will go after the comeback pitchers who had injuries or down years

Brandon McCarthy or Jurrjens might be signing on 1 year deals

Another name I think will be considered in Boston will be Edwin Jackson i know hes a Scott Boras client as well but on a 3/39 which seems to be the trend wouldnt surprise me

[Lucienbel]

I really wouldn't mind the Sox giving McCarthy a shot, he'd been a pretty solid pitcher, at least since he landed in Oakland. Granted, it seems the Coliseum probably did him favors that Fenway won't just by looking at his numbers at a glance. A good look at him in Spring Training wouldn't be a terrible thing. Same thing with Jurrjens really. This isn't to say that they don't need to add another arm through free agency or a trade, but I'd have no problem with McCarthy and Jurrjens getting Spring Training invites and either sent to AAA or released if they didn't work out.

[dupree]

Agreed.

 

McCarthy was slotted as the #2 in Oakland last season, Fenway is going to be a change for any pitcher comin in the 1st full season... his freak head injury was something that couldnt be controlled it could happen to any pitcher. Jurrgens as young as he is could be a high upside guy & i think if the sox dont someone else is going to & prolly get a nice return

 

Jackson - i have a crazy feeling he'll be a red sox another overpay

Loshe- should just stay with the Cardinals

Dempster- Dear God please no no no no

R.A. Dickey - Our prospects are worth more than him anyday

 

In the perfect world we would have the trade chips on the major league roster & the prospects to go out & make a trade for a guy like Rick Porcello to be our #3

Lester Bucholz Porcello #4 starter(Homer Bailey/Jurrgens/McCarty/Floyd/Jackson) Lackey/ Doubrant. Lackey is only gonna pitch around 120-140 innings at best this year & letting Doubrant picking up the rest of the slack my work out very nicely

[SoxSport]

The team to watch for Ells is Cincinnati. Homer Bailey is trade bait.

[rjortiz]

Bailey for Ellsbury makes a lot of sense, but I don't see Cincy giving him up for just Ellsbury. Maybe him and Doubrount gets it done.

[example1]

Bailey for Ellsbury makes a lot of sense, but I don't see Cincy giving him up for just Ellsbury. Maybe him and Doubrount gets it done.

 

Ouch! I don't like that deal much. Move one piece of the rotation for another. Bailey only has one year left after this one, right? His 2nd arb eligible going into 2013 I think. Is he worth a year of Ellsbury and Doubront, who isn't even at arb yet?

 

I think calls to move Doubront are really premature. Doubront just finished his age 24 season and has the following career line:

 

196 IP, 4.86 ERA, 196 K, 1.477 WHIP, 90 ERA+, 2.20 K/BB

 

Here's Bailey's line through roughly the same number of innings (after his age 23 season)

 

195 IP, 5.45 ERA, 132 K, 1.610 WHIP, 80 ERA+, 1.36 K/BB

 

Doubront is a better version of Bailey at the same point in their MLB careers.

 

Meanwhile, Bailey has had one good (not great) season. And he's not controlled for long.

 

Maybe Ells plus a decent prospect IF there's reason to think they can extend Bailey for a reasonable price. Otherwise, they should aim higher.

[Station 13]

Bailey for Ellsbury makes a lot of sense, but I don't see Cincy giving him up for just Ellsbury. Maybe him and Doubrount gets it done.

 

I will punch cute kittens if that happen.

[dupree]

I will punch cute kittens if that happen.

 

Simply Awesome!

[Spudboy]

I think the Sox hold onto Ellsbury at least until the deadline. His value is low ( for him ) now. They will do something stupid like grab a bargain basement guy and overpay first. I don't think any of the guys mentioned are worth giving up Ellsbury AND a prospect for at this point. Although I have always liked Jurgens and Porcello.

[BSN07]

I think the Sox hold onto Ellsbury at least until the deadline. His value is low ( for him ) now. They will do something stupid like grab a bargain basement guy and overpay first. I don't think any of the guys mentioned are worth giving up Ellsbury AND a prospect for at this point. Although I have always liked Jurgens and Porcello.

 

Ya as long as they don't sign another OF he won't be going anywhere for now.

 

I still think a Salty for SP deal happens. Porcello be nice, but I don't know what Detroit is looking for. I'm hoping they get Jurrjens and stash him in AAA.

 

The big name SP might just not be out there right now. They're probably more likely to add a mid to lower rotation guy for now and look later n the season to see who is now available.