Red Sox Offseason Ideas

[SoxFanForsyth]

Put the crack pipe down

 

Which of the above ideas are out of the question? Rox are reportedly listening on Tulo. Why wouldn't the Mariners listen on Smoak? Why wouldn't the Giants listen on Lincecum?

 

Which idea are you referring to?

[example1]

Lincecum costs too much in your scenario. To give them that salary relief, a young viable SP, and Cecchini is a huge overpay IMO. Doubront is a pitcher who has the stuff to be a playoff starter as he matures.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lincecum costs too much in your scenario. To give them that salary relief, a young viable SP, and Cecchini is a huge overpay IMO. Doubront is a pitcher who has the stuff to be a playoff starter as he matures.

 

Judging the cost for Lincecum is tough. Seems like everyone has a different take on him. He's tough to peg.

[Palodios]

Which of the above ideas are out of the question? Rox are reportedly listening on Tulo. Why wouldn't the Mariners listen on Smoak? Why wouldn't the Giants listen on Lincecum?

 

Which idea are you referring to?

 

The problem is that you're giving up a significant amount of prospects for a pile of question marks. I think the Sox can do better.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The problem is that you're giving up a significant amount of prospects for a pile of question marks. I think the Sox can do better.

 

Tulo is certainly not a question mark, not by any means.

 

You give up Cecchini and Doubront for Lincecum. I guess you could say it's a bit of an overpay, but at the same time, his upside is Cy Young caliber, sub 3.00 ERA baseball. A true ace.

 

And for Smoak, you're giving up Britton and Montas, not really much at all. Certainly nothing that we're counting on. Smoak has a much higher upside than either of Britton or Montas.

[rjortiz]

Only problem I have with this is dealing Boegarts for Tulo. Tulo is signed through 2021, or his age 36 season, at an AAV of around $20 M. That's just too much $ and years to take on, particularly for a player who has been spent significant time on the DL for 2 of the last 5 seasons. He certainly has a good mental makeup, but he seems like too big of a risk to take on unless Colorado was willing to take on a large percentage of his salary.

 

He's been a six win player for the last three years, and he's the best SS in the game. Who would you give $20 million to? He's worth the money.

[Plumpamania]

Tulo is certainly not a question mark, not by any means.

 

You give up Cecchini and Doubront for Lincecum. I guess you could say it's a bit of an overpay, but at the same time, his upside is Cy Young caliber, sub 3.00 ERA baseball. A true ace.

 

And for Smoak, you're giving up Britton and Montas, not really much at all. Certainly nothing that we're counting on. Smoak has a much higher upside than either of Britton or Montas.

 

Why would the Rockies give up a face of the franchise for a 5+ERA pitcher, bringing him to Colorado, when he was never really a 'top' prospect, and for an infielder in A ball?

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's been a six win player for the last three years, and he's the best SS in the game. Who would you give $20 million to? He's worth the money.

 

Exactly. And the Rockies, much like the Red Sox during this past season, are going to want to free up some money. Taking $144mm off the Rockies hands and giving them an elite talent (potentially the next Tulo) plus a top 100 prospect in Swihart, and a gold glove caliber player who could thrive in an NL style game, and can keep SS warm while Bogaerts advances is very much a good deal for the Rockies.

 

It's a deal that would make me sick initially to be honest.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Why would the Rockies give up a face of the franchise for a 5+ERA pitcher, bringing him to Colorado, when he was never really a 'top' prospect, and for an infielder in A ball?

 

Oye.

 

For a message board to be effective, you really need to read the posts.

 

I said Swihart + Bogaerts + Iglesias for Tulo. Swihart has been compared to Buster Posey. Bogaerts is an elite prospect. Iglesias is an elite glove who can play SS while Bogaerts advances through the minors. And the Sox are taking on $144mm of contract. It's a good deal for the Rockies since they're in a rebuilding mode.

[rjortiz]

Oye.

 

For a message board to be effective, you really need to read the posts.

 

I said Swihart + Bogaerts + Iglesias for Tulo. Swihart has been compared to Buster Posey. Bogaerts is an elite prospect. Iglesias is an elite glove who can play SS while Bogaerts advances through the minors. And the Sox are taking on $144mm of contract. It's a good deal for the Rockies since they're in a rebuilding mode.

 

Who compared him to Buster Posey?

[rjortiz]

Exactly. And the Rockies, much like the Red Sox during this past season, are going to want to free up some money. Taking $144mm off the Rockies hands and giving them an elite talent (potentially the next Tulo) plus a top 100 prospect in Swihart, and a gold glove caliber player who could thrive in an NL style game, and can keep SS warm while Bogaerts advances is very much a good deal for the Rockies.

 

It's a deal that would make me sick initially to be honest.

 

This is a terrible deal for the Rockies. Giving up a six win player signed to a reasonable deal, who also happens to be the face of their franchise for one elite prospect is insanity. It won't happen.

[Palodios]

Tulo is certainly not a question mark, not by any means.

 

You give up Cecchini and Doubront for Lincecum. I guess you could say it's a bit of an overpay, but at the same time, his upside is Cy Young caliber, sub 3.00 ERA baseball. A true ace.

 

And for Smoak, you're giving up Britton and Montas, not really much at all. Certainly nothing that we're counting on. Smoak has a much higher upside than either of Britton or Montas.

 

A baseball GM is allowed to take risks, but all three of these moves would be relatively big risks. Some are big in prospects/money, and others are in going into 2013 with a huge hole in their roster.

 

The problem with Tulo is that he has an insanely expensive contract, and at 28 years old, he's only averaged about 118 games per season. Ellsbury averages 110. If we're going to give 200 million to a guy who is hurt all the time, why not just pay our own guy, keep Bogaerts, and go for someone else?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Middlebrooks hit MLB pitching for about the same OPS that Brentz did in AA during their age 23 seasons. I don't feel comfortable allowing a prospect who struck out 25.7% of the time, and had a BABIP of .377 to be in our starting lineup. We'd be lucky if he put up average numbers.

 

 

 

It's not just Safeco. He has a .715 OPS in the road, and while he had a good September, I'm not banking on a return to prospect status for him. He's years away from that, and has been pretty terrible for someone with over 1200 career AB's.

 

 

Didn't watch him this year down the stretch I guess.

 

 

 

Most of that was when he tore up A ball. He managed a .800 OPS at Portland, and you expect him to come right in and replicate those numbers in the major leagues? I think that's far too optimistic.

 

 

 

Clown question.

 

 

 

He's been a good pitcher, but I'm not willing to bet 5 years of Doubront, Cecchini, and $20 million for someone coming off an awful year, and his postseason pitching stats have only been eight innings, in relief, and all coming out of the stretch. If you want him as a reliever that would be a different story.

 

 

 

Tulo is the best all around SS in the game. I don't think the Rockies will be so eager to part with him, and Swihart may have been mentioned in the same sentence as Posey, but no one in their right mind thinks he is anything close to the prospect Posey was. Posey was the 4th overall pick, and ranked #15 and #7 in prospect rankings.

 

lol @ hypocrisy.

 

Ok here we go.

 

1. Middlebrooks had a .363 BABIP and a 23.9 K rate in AA in 2011. Not sure what you're getting at. He did pretty well in the bigs. Not to mention Arnie Beyeler compared the two (WMB and Brentz) pretty heavily recently. As well as the Red Sox minor league hitting instructor during an interview with Alex Speier. Call me crazy, but I trust their judgement a hell of a lot more than yours, especially since yours is likely just based on baseball-reference.com

 

2. Smoak, like I said, is a prime change of scenery guy. Playing at SafeCo gets in a lot of guys heads. Look at Jesus Montero. Crushed it in 2011 for the Yankees. Absolutely horrid this year with Seattle. Adrian Beltre. Same story. A change of scenery into a park where you feel like you can get rewarded for driving the baseball builds a hell of a lot of confidence, and that certainly translates into success. And giving up Britton and Montas for Smoak is a small price.

 

3. Yes. Let's have 46 games in September when the team was miserable to be a part of overshadow 144 games of AAA. His bat has never been a problem. It's been his defense. Which is what he worked on all season, which likely contributed to his lower numbers. But it was what he needed to do to get to Boston. He didn't just forget how to hit. He's going to be fine. Forgive me for not counting a guy out because he struggled in his call up.

 

4. How much is 5 years of Doubront actually worth? He posted a 5+ ERA this year with horrible pitch efficiency. Lincecum would be a fantastic trade target because the Sox would get a year to look at him to decide if he would be a good investment at Fenway. Doubront + Cecchini for a guy with potential to be an elite, ace level pitcher is a small price. His walks went up this year and his HR/9 went up. That's hit. His K's were consistent with other years. A slight tweak to his mechanics and he's right back to being a Cy contender.

 

5. Swihart was a top 100 prospect coming into this season (#72) so it's not like he's a piece of garbage prospect. Not to mention Swihart was drafted at 19, whereas Posey was drafted at 21. A hell of a lot of advancement can occur in 2 years.

 

The Rockies are in a complete rebuild mode. There have already been reports that they're interested in listening on Tulo. Taking all of his contract and giving him a top 15 prospect in Bogaerts as well as a young catcher who could be top 60 going into next season is hardly a bargain for the Red Sox.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Who compared him to Buster Posey?

 

BA called him, I believe, the "Buster Posey starter kit"

[SoxFanForsyth]

A baseball GM is allowed to take risks, but all three of these moves would be relatively big risks. Some are big in prospects/money, and others are in going into 2013 with a huge hole in their roster.

 

The problem with Tulo is that he has an insanely expensive contract, and at 28 years old, he's only averaged about 118 games per season. Ellsbury averages 110. If we're going to give 200 million to a guy who is hurt all the time, why not just pay our own guy, keep Bogaerts, and go for someone else?

 

You can find elite talent at CF. Hell, we have Jackie Bradley Jr. Not to mention that Tulo has put up multiple years of MVP caliber numbers. We know that Tulo is going to stick at SS, whereas we don't know if Bogaerts will stick at SS or outgrow it.

 

If the opportunity arises to get Tulo, you strike.

[rjortiz]

lol @ hypocrisy.

 

Ok here we go.

 

Different context.

 

Down the stretch refers to August/September. The stretch refers to not pitching out of the windup.

[rjortiz]

No, he's not. Have you not been watching him in the postseason? All of it has been from the stretch.

[win red sox]

I would like to see Ben put a competitive team on the field while acquiring young high ceiling pitchers and a young firstbaseman.

 

free agent signings

1) Josh Hamilton 3/75 with a mutual option 4th year

2) Anibal Sanchez 5/65

3) Dan Haren 2/28 (I just dont think he would sign a 1 year contract to come to Boston)

4) Stephen Drew 2/24

5) Ortiz 2/26

6) Mccarthy 1/12

 

Trades

1) Boston sends Ellsbury and Lester to Washington for 1b Moore,sp meyer, and rp rodriguez.

2) Boston sends Buchholz and Iglesias to Arizona for cf young and sp trevor bauer.

 

Rotation

 

Haren

Sanchez

Doubront

Lackey

Mccarthy

 

Lineup

 

ss Drew

2b Pedroia

rf Hamilton

dh Ortiz

3b Middlebrooks

1b Moore

c Lav's/salty

cf Young

lf Kalish/Sands

 

I believe this team could compete in the al east, will any of this happen? probaly not, but the point is you can put a competitive team on the field while still acquiring young high ceiling pitchers.

[Palodios]

You can find elite talent at CF. Hell, we have Jackie Bradley Jr. Not to mention that Tulo has put up multiple years of MVP caliber numbers. We know that Tulo is going to stick at SS, whereas we don't know if Bogaerts will stick at SS or outgrow it.

 

If the opportunity arises to get Tulo, you strike.

 

Ellsbury's best season was a 9.4 WAR.

Tulo's best season was a 6.3 WAR.

 

Ellsbury is here. He can handle the pressure in Boston. He's proven he hits in Fenway. But my point is, I dislike Tulo for all the reasons I dislike Ellsbury. He's hurt all the time, and costs too much. If anyone of the killer B's gets traded this offseason for any non-Felix/Verlander player, Ben Cherington has failed this offseason.

[DocHolliday]

Exactly. And the Rockies, much like the Red Sox during this past season, are going to want to free up some money. Taking $144mm off the Rockies hands and giving them an elite talent (potentially the next Tulo) plus a top 100 prospect in Swihart, and a gold glove caliber player who could thrive in an NL style game, and can keep SS warm while Bogaerts advances is very much a good deal for the Rockies.

 

It's a deal that would make me sick initially to be honest.

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

There's no doubt that Tulo is a great SS right now. But I wouldn't want to commit to a player who is under contract for the next 8 seasons, no matter who the player is. Especially when you would have to give up some highly touted prospects and pick up $140+ M to boot. Boegarts isn't a complete guarantee, but he's certainly talented enough to keep around and close enough to the ML that he could be a significant contributor in the near future. It isn't completely out of the realm of possibility that Boegarts could be contributing at a similar level to Tulo's current level by 2015-2016. At that point, Tulo will be earning $20 M and be signed through 2021. Boegarts would be making league minimum and will probably be signed through Arb and his first few eligible FA years, at a fraction of the monetary cost of Tulo.

 

To me, hanging onto more of our higher end prospects and resisting the temptation to acquire LT commitments, no matter how good they may be right now, will allow the team the flexibility to fill gaps with shorter term, less risky FA acquisitions.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tulo is MVP caliber at home. He is All-Star level on the road. A good .080 difference in OPS between the split, plus he can never stay healthy and he is expensive

[win red sox]

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

There's no doubt that Tulo is a great SS right now. But I wouldn't want to commit to a player who is under contract for the next 8 seasons, no matter who the player is. Especially when you would have to give up some highly touted prospects and pick up $140+ M to boot. Boegarts isn't a complete guarantee, but he's certainly talented enough to keep around and close enough to the ML that he could be a significant contributor in the near future. It isn't completely out of the realm of possibility that Boegarts could be contributing at a similar level to Tulo's current level by 2015-2016. At that point, Tulo will be earning $20 M and be signed through 2021. Boegarts would be making league minimum and will probably be signed through Arb and his first few eligible FA years, at a fraction of the monetary cost of Tulo.

 

To me, hanging onto more of our higher end prospects and resisting the temptation to acquire LT commitments, no matter how good they may be right now, will allow the team the flexibility to fill gaps with shorter term, less risky FA acquisitions.

 

I think the kansas city royals are on this plan. Seriously, we are a large market team, large market teams have superstars which entails large contracts. Does Boston even get to the playoffs without Manny Ramirez 8/160 in 04 and 07? I understand that the Crawford contract was not ideal, but that doesnt mean we shouldn't acquire elite talent, Boston's adtvantage over most clubs is it financial resources, why not take adtvantage of it?

I would be ashamed and disappointed as a red sox fan if the ownership did not field a competitive team with the realistic goal of reaching the world series.

[DocHolliday]

I think the kansas city royals are on this plan. Seriously, we are a large market team, large market teams have superstars which entails large contracts. Does Boston even get to the playoffs without Manny Ramirez 8/160 in 04 and 07? I understand that the Crawford contract was not ideal, but that doesnt mean we shouldn't acquire elite talent, Boston's adtvantage over most clubs is it financial resources, why not take adtvantage of it?

I would be ashamed and disappointed as a red sox fan if the ownership did not field a competitive team with the realistic goal of reaching the world series.

 

What advantage did the Sox have over other teams the past few seasons when they had zero financial flexibility due to LT commitments to acquired "superstars"? Superstars don't necessarily have to be paid like superstars - particularly when they are already under team control. Giving away affordable talent that has the potential to become elite for expensive "elite" talent is part of what made the Red Sox the mess they are now.

 

Certainly, I will be disappointed if the Sox field a team next season similar to the team that ended 2012 for the same reasons you described. My opinion differs in that I feel there are better ways to field a competive team for both 2013 and beyond than by acquiring players at positions that the organization seems to have the LT answer for in house.

 

In the case of Tulo, the only way I'd make the deal is if the Rockies will take a lower caliber prospect or agree to pay a significant portion of Tulo's remaining contract, neither of which I believe they would do. But honestly, even acquiring Tulo in and of itself won't make this team significantly better than they presently are because it does nothing to address their biggest need - elite pitching.

[jung]

Well first I don't think anybody believes the Sox will start 2013 with the roster they finished with in 2012.

 

Some of the young guys that the Sox believe will be part of their future may be here in 2013 but I believe the Sox will spend some of that money from "the trade". I would not be at all surprised if they biased their activities toward starting pitching but I am convinced the Sox will make moves both for ST and for everyday players.

 

I do think they are likely to revise their vision of "elite". I think they are less likely to throw money at guys with injury history or that have just gotten off the operating table and will be more attracted to players that have proven durable or are younger and in the main healthy.

[rjortiz]

lol @ hypocrisy.

 

Ok here we go.

 

1. Middlebrooks had a .363 BABIP and a 23.9 K rate in AA in 2011. Not sure what you're getting at. He did pretty well in the bigs. Not to mention Arnie Beyeler compared the two (WMB and Brentz) pretty heavily recently. As well as the Red Sox minor league hitting instructor during an interview with Alex Speier. Call me crazy, but I trust their judgement a hell of a lot more than yours, especially since yours is likely just based on baseball-reference.com

 

Why do you quote two Red Sox employees to support your argument? Do you expect them to give a negative report on Brentz? I don't look at baseball reference, I read scouting reports, and here's one from Matt Sullivan of fangraphs.com

 

Is Brentz a “guy”? Sure, but the next contact I speak to who views him as an impact bat will be the first.

 

This leaves Brentz being viewed more as a player with a ceiling falling somewhere between fourth outfielder and average regular depending on how much one believes in his ability to adjust at the upper levels and tweak his hitting mechanics.

 

Maybe he becomes another Middlebrooks, but Middlebrooks destroyed AAA pitching for a few months before he was called up. It's an awfully risky proposition to have him rushed immediately to the bigs. Let's see what he can do at Pawtucket first. Although, I would use him as a trade chip.

 

2. Smoak, like I said, is a prime change of scenery guy. Playing at SafeCo gets in a lot of guys heads. Look at Jesus Montero. Crushed it in 2011 for the Yankees. Absolutely horrid this year with Seattle. Adrian Beltre. Same story. A change of scenery into a park where you feel like you can get rewarded for driving the baseball builds a hell of a lot of confidence, and that certainly translates into success. And giving up Britton and Montas for Smoak is a small price.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=1974&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,25&players=0&sort=17,a

 

This is how he stacks up with other 25 year old 1B with 1200 AB's. It's an awfully big gamble to suggest that it's just Safeco robbing his power. At least, Beltre had a track record and the physical strength to suggest otherwise. Smoak has never hit big league pitching.

 

3. Yes. Let's have 46 games in September when the team was miserable to be a part of overshadow 144 games of AAA. His bat has never been a problem. It's been his defense. Which is what he worked on all season, which likely contributed to his lower numbers. But it was what he needed to do to get to Boston. He didn't just forget how to hit. He's going to be fine. Forgive me for not counting a guy out because he struggled in his call up.

 

OK, but you keep penciling him in for his AAA numbers. I'm saying that's too hasty and that we should have another option in case he fails.

 

4. How much is 5 years of Doubront actually worth? He posted a 5+ ERA this year with horrible pitch efficiency. Lincecum would be a fantastic trade target because the Sox would get a year to look at him to decide if he would be a good investment at Fenway. Doubront + Cecchini for a guy with potential to be an elite, ace level pitcher is a small price. His walks went up this year and his HR/9 went up. That's hit. His K's were consistent with other years. A slight tweak to his mechanics and he's right back to being a Cy contender.

 

He's a young left hander with good stuff, who had a lower ERA in a tougher league, and a more hitter friendly ballpark. He's being paid the minimum. Factor all that in, and he's a lot more valuable than a pitcher coming off a horrible season. Another worrying issue is that his velocity is down, and his pitches don't look as a sharp.

 

Also, Barry Zito is starting over him.

 

5. Swihart was a top 100 prospect coming into this season (#72) so it's not like he's a piece of garbage prospect. Not to mention Swihart was drafted at 19, whereas Posey was drafted at 21. A hell of a lot of advancement can occur in 2 years.

 

The Rockies are in a complete rebuild mode. There have already been reports that they're interested in listening on Tulo. Taking all of his contract and giving him a top 15 prospect in Bogaerts as well as a young catcher who could be top 60 going into next season is hardly a bargain for the Red Sox.

 

I don't care. The Rockies would never do this deal. Not in a million years.

[Behindenemylines]

Some are complaining Ellsbury always hurt, but so is Tulo. The only difference is that Tulo already has a huge contract not only in $$$, but years. Can't see the Sox trading Bogaerts and whoever for Tulo. Didn't we just dump huge iffy contracts in August? I like Tulo, but not with that contract.

[Plumpamania]

I would like to see Ben put a competitive team on the field while acquiring young high ceiling pitchers and a young firstbaseman.

 

free agent signings

1) Josh Hamilton 3/75 with a mutual option 4th year

2) Anibal Sanchez 5/65

3) Dan Haren 2/28 (I just dont think he would sign a 1 year contract to come to Boston)

4) Stephen Drew 2/24

5) Ortiz 2/26

6) Mccarthy 1/12

 

Trades

1) Boston sends Ellsbury and Lester to Washington for 1b Moore,sp meyer, and rp rodriguez.

2) Boston sends Buchholz and Iglesias to Arizona for cf young and sp trevor bauer.

 

Rotation

 

Haren

Sanchez

Doubront

Lackey

Mccarthy

 

Lineup

 

ss Drew

2b Pedroia

rf Hamilton

dh Ortiz

3b Middlebrooks

1b Moore

c Lav's/salty

cf Young

lf Kalish/Sands

 

I believe this team could compete in the al east, will any of this happen? probaly not, but the point is you can put a competitive team on the field while still acquiring young high ceiling pitchers.

 

This isn't MLB the Show.

[Plumpamania]

Tulo is MVP caliber at home. He is All-Star level on the road. A good .080 difference in OPS between the split, plus he can never stay healthy and he is expensive

 

Jackson, in all my time here, I think this our 2nd agreement.

[Plumpamania]

CAREER BATTING STATISTICS
YEAR 	TEAM 	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WAR
2006 	

   COL

25 	96 	15 	23 	2 	0 	1 	6 	10 	25 	3 	0 	.240 	.318 	.292 	.610 	-0.4
2007 	

   COL

155 	609 	104 	177 	33 	5 	24 	99 	57 	130 	7 	6 	.291 	.359 	.479 	.838 	6.5
2008 	

   COL

101 	377 	48 	99 	24 	2 	8 	46 	38 	56 	1 	6 	.263 	.332 	.401 	.733 	0.6
2009 	

   COL

151 	543 	101 	161 	25 	9 	32 	92 	73 	112 	20 	11 	.297 	.377 	.552 	.929 	6.3
2010 	

   COL

122 	470 	89 	148 	32 	3 	27 	95 	48 	78 	11 	2 	.315 	.381 	.568 	.949 	6.5
2011 	

   COL

143 	537 	81 	162 	36 	2 	30 	105 	59 	79 	9 	3 	.302 	.372 	.544 	.916 	5.9
2012 	

   COL

47 	181 	33 	52 	8 	2 	8 	27 	19 	19 	2 	2 	.287 	.360 	.486 	.846 	0.3
Total 	Total	744 	2813 	471 	822 	160 	23 	130 	470 	304 	499 	53 	30 	.292 	.364 	.504 	.868 	--

 

Troy has had only played a full season in 3 of his 6 MLB full years. Sounds like an amazing investment!

[Behindenemylines]

He is the Rockies contract mistake. These long term contracts always blowup. I like Tulo, but too many $$$$ and years on this BAD contract so let this rumor die.