Do Sox give Ellsbury Crawford's money?

[Spitball]

Do the Red Sox give Ellsbury a contract similar to the one they gave Carl Crawford? With Scott Boras representing Ellsbury, I assume he will use Crawford's contract as his goal.

 

I say they should not. First, it is foolish to give Crawford money and contract length to anyone, especially a player whose skills are basically driven by speed.

 

Also, the Red Sox have a highly regarded and nearly-ready prospect Jackie Bradley coming up to play centerfield.

 

Ellsbury has had two major injuries that have limited his play. They were freaky injuries, but who knows if they will continue?

 

With a Red Sox "bridge year" coming in 2013, should the Sox trade Ellsbury this winter, re-sign him, or enjoy his walk year and let him leave?

[Thunder]

Would make sense, but Ells has had a subpar year.

[italstallianion]

I'd say close, but not quite. The injuries are alarming, so I think we can get a slight discount on the contract, I'd also like to think there'd be a "hometown discount" but I know that "discount" and "Boras" are rarely used in the same sentence. (Except just now)

 

I think the injuries and the fact that the Crawford contract is widely considered a mistake make it harder for Ellsbury to use that contract as a goal. It'd be like a pitcher asking for Zito's contract. Remember what happened the last time a team gave that contract out?

[Station 13]

Ellsbury's won't sniff that, but in 1 year he is a top CF free agent. There's a few teams that could use him, including the Yankees.

[Spitball]

Along with the injuries, Boras is the bummer factor here. You would think Ellsbury should be willing to sign a reasonable contract to stay in Boston, but I can't think of a time Boras has operated that way.

 

I think they should re-sign him if the price is well below the Crawford money and years...but I doubt that will be the case. If they think he will be too expensive, I hope they will convert him into starting pitching, especially with Bradley and Brentz waiting in the wings.

[Station 13]

We have to see if he could come close to the player he was in 2011 again, if he does, he will get $100M on the market.

[Brennan]

Question: Do they offer Ells the money they gave Crawford?

 

Answer: f*** no!

 

Problem(s): Too many to list but for starters-

 

Boras will demand at least that much (he loves to give it to Henry hard)

 

Ellsbury is a very talented young ball player but when is the last time you have seen a player that young and that talented hung up on the DL so frequently as well as having such frequent stretches of performing below his talent level.

 

I would hate to see him go elsewhere but Boras is the ultimate dick head when it comes to burning us. If Ells doesn't have enough self respect that he allows himself to go to new york then so be it, let Boras rape them instead of us, no one else is gonna pay what they are going to ask for.

[Elktonnick]

Ellsbury reminds me of Brady Anderson. I question how much his shoulder has really recovered.

[Spitball]

I don't think the Yankees will sign Ellsbury because of luxory tax issues.

[Brennan]

I think the bankee$ forget they ever said anything about luxury tax issues, especially after they get bounced again this year after another 200 mil flushed down the shitter.

[SoxSport]

Nobody will give Ells Crawford money unless he bounces back big next year.

[Palodios]

Here is the best solution to this problem: Offer Ellsbury a 2/30 deal.

 

It is in his best interest to show teams he can stay healthy, and produce consistent numbers. The 2/30 deal gives him security and the opportunity to prove himself. He'll only be 31 in two years, so he can still get a big contract.

 

It gives the Red Sox an elite player for an extra year, and gives Bradley an extra year to develop. It also gives the Red Sox another opportunity to trade him in 2014 if he has a monster year in 2013 and they know they won't be able to re-sign him.

[Spitball]

Nobody will give Ells Crawford money unless he bounces back big next year.

 

Maybe not, but we have Scott Boras involved here. He will be pounding the Crawford dollars point.

 

If the Rangers decide not persue Hamilton, I wounder about an Ellsbury for Elvis Andrus deal. They have their top prospect as a shortstop while the Sox have a top prospect in centerfielder Jackie Bradley.

[Spitball]

Here is the best solution to this problem: Offer Ellsbury a 2/30 deal.

 

It is in his best interest to show teams he can stay healthy, and produce consistent numbers. The 2/30 deal gives him security and the opportunity to prove himself. He'll only be 31 in two years, so he can still get a big contract.

 

It gives the Red Sox an elite player for an extra year, and gives Bradley an extra year to develop. It also gives the Red Sox another opportunity to trade him in 2014 if he has a monster year in 2013 and they know they won't be able to re-sign him.

 

Perfect, if Boras agrees.

[Palodios]

Perfect, if Boras agrees.

 

I see absolutely no reason why he wouldn't. Ellsbury will make roughly 10 million in 2013 through arbitration. If he gets a big contract, 20 million a year is in the right neighborhood, so 2/30 simply pays for those years.

 

The reality is that teams are going to look at Ellsbury, and see that he hasn't produced big numbers for two consecutive years ever. If Ellsbury goes for the big contract at the end of 2013, the best Ellsbury will see is 60-90 million. GMs are very dumb during free agency, but I seriously doubt any GM will be that dumb.... outside of maybe LA/DC. If Ellsbury performs through 2014 with the Red Sox, he will have the opportunity to make double or potentially triple that.

 

Its a win-win for everyone involved.

[Spitball]

I see absolutely no reason why he wouldn't. Ellsbury will make roughly 10 million in 2013 through arbitration. If he gets a big contract, 20 million a year is in the right neighborhood, so 2/30 simply pays for those years.

 

The reality is that teams are going to look at Ellsbury, and see that he hasn't produced big numbers for two consecutive years ever. If Ellsbury goes for the big contract at the end of 2013, the best Ellsbury will see is 60-90 million. GMs are very dumb during free agency, but I seriously doubt any GM will be that dumb.... outside of maybe LA/DC. If Ellsbury performs through 2014 with the Red Sox, he will have the opportunity to make double or potentially triple that.

 

Its a win-win for everyone involved.

 

We can hope this is the case. I doubt the Dodgers will be players for Ellsbury, but the Angels, Nationals , White Sox and Rangers could be big spenders for Ellsbury's services. Like you said, who knows what thought processes will be going through the heads of certain general managers. We have seen lots of players, especially outfielders, first basemen, and pitchers, get ridiculous contracts in recent years.

 

As much as i like Ellsbury, I would rather the Sox trade him this winter.

[Bellhorn04]

I see absolutely no reason why he wouldn't. Ellsbury will make roughly 10 million in 2013 through arbitration. If he gets a big contract, 20 million a year is in the right neighborhood, so 2/30 simply pays for those years.

 

The reality is that teams are going to look at Ellsbury, and see that he hasn't produced big numbers for two consecutive years ever. If Ellsbury goes for the big contract at the end of 2013, the best Ellsbury will see is 60-90 million. GMs are very dumb during free agency, but I seriously doubt any GM will be that dumb.... outside of maybe LA/DC. If Ellsbury performs through 2014 with the Red Sox, he will have the opportunity to make double or potentially triple that.

 

Its a win-win for everyone involved.

 

Seems like a smart idea to me.

[SCM33]

Here is the best solution to this problem: Offer Ellsbury a 2/30 deal.

 

It is in his best interest to show teams he can stay healthy, and produce consistent numbers. The 2/30 deal gives him security and the opportunity to prove himself. He'll only be 31 in two years, so he can still get a big contract.

 

It gives the Red Sox an elite player for an extra year, and gives Bradley an extra year to develop. It also gives the Red Sox another opportunity to trade him in 2014 if he has a monster year in 2013 and they know they won't be able to re-sign him.

 

Hes a Boras guy. He is getting 100M from some team stupid enough to give it to him. Hopefully it is not us.

[example1]

I agree with everyone who thinks Jacoby isn't worth 20+m a year. He hasn't shown that consistently enough. However, I still think the Sox have to consider making a run at him very strongly this offseason. That way they can know where they stand, make a good faith effort and then trade him if he's not open to playing ball so they can be sure to get something good for him.

 

On the flip side, I think he's one of the most talented players in baseball and at 29 and 30, he's one of the young(ish), highly talented players in the league. Budget flexibility or not, the Sox are going to need guys like that and I'm not sold yet on who that will be.

[Orange Juiced]

I see absolutely no reason why he wouldn't. Ellsbury will make roughly 10 million in 2013 through arbitration. If he gets a big contract, 20 million a year is in the right neighborhood, so 2/30 simply pays for those years.

 

The reality is that teams are going to look at Ellsbury, and see that he hasn't produced big numbers for two consecutive years ever. If Ellsbury goes for the big contract at the end of 2013, the best Ellsbury will see is 60-90 million. GMs are very dumb during free agency, but I seriously doubt any GM will be that dumb.... outside of maybe LA/DC. If Ellsbury performs through 2014 with the Red Sox, he will have the opportunity to make double or potentially triple that.

 

Its a win-win for everyone involved.

 

Re: the bolded part: SERIOUSLY? You can see no reason why Jacoby Ellsbury would decline a 2/30 offer from the Red Sox? Um...how about because some other team is likely to offer at least 3/48? That's more guaranteed money than 2/30. And there's a good chance that somebody will offer even more than that.

 

I like Jacoby as a player and think someone will pay through the nose for a guy with his potential. I hope it isn't the Red Sox, because they'd be paying that for a guy with tremendous ability, but no consistency, as you pointed out. And he'd be spending almost all of that contract on the wrong side of 30. You'd be paying in-his-prime dollars for a guy no longer in his prime. So no thanks.

 

But yeah, hypothetically, it would be great to have him for two more years at $15 million per year, let him establish more value, then go to another team, which opens the door for Bradley Jr. Sure, I like the plan.

[Palodios]

Re: the bolded part: SERIOUSLY? You can see no reason why Jacoby Ellsbury would decline a 2/30 offer from the Red Sox? Um...how about because some other team is likely to offer at least 3/48? That's more guaranteed money than 2/30. And there's a good chance that somebody will offer even more than that.

 

I don't think you understand what I'm proposing here. The Red Sox would be buying out exactly one year of free agency with a 2/30 offer, paying Ellsbury's market value $20 million for the second year.

 

This kind of deal would be meant as an opportunity for him to establish value in a park where he knows he can mash, in an environment where he will get more publicity than anywhere else. A 3/48 contract from another team would not be in Ellsbury's best interests because he would come back into free agency at 33 years old, and probably won't get the 150+ million dollar contract even if he'd been performing to MVP levels.

[Orange Juiced]

Well sure then. Go ahead, Cherington, make that offer. Let's see if Ellsbury accepts it. I have a lot of reasons to doubt that he would.

[Palodios]

Hes a Boras guy. He is getting 100M from some team stupid enough to give it to him. Hopefully it is not us.

 

Let's say that some team is stupid enough to pay him 100M. Even so, by staying with the Red Sox an extra year, Ellsbury could possibly double that 100M over the course of his career.

 

If Ellsbury takes the two years here, re-establishes value, he'll make 20 million in 2014, and then pull in a significantly larger contract at around 150-180 million for the rest of his career-- well beyond the 100 million he would otherwise make in 2014.

 

Teams WILL give Ellsbury the annual value in 2014, but the length of contract is going to be the concern. 4-5 years is going to be the max anyone gives, and sure, maybe 5/20 is a possibility, but then what? He'll be a 35 year old, and his most consistent tool-- speed-- will be fading, who probably turned into a horrible contract the first time around. There are no absolutely no guarantees that he'll get another big contract at the end of 2018. There is also the matter that he will get a guarantee on 2014 if he has a poor 2013.

[redsoxfan3]

I agree with Palodios in terms of not producing great numbers in consecutive years. He had a career last year and a lot of people question whether he will be able to do that again. I believe he can produce at his career averages. My concern is going to be injuries going forward. Can he stay healthy? That is the big question. I think that he will be able to hit around .300/.350/.450/.800. I think he can be a 20 HR, 80-90 RBI guy, with the ability to easily be able to steal 30+ bases. He stole 70 bases in '09. The thing for him has been inconsistency and the ability to stay healthy. With the money that we have free, I think we need to look to sign him long-term throughout the next year. If he hits the free agent market, I think it might be hard to sign him long-term, especially if we keep having seasons like we are having this year. The part that is hard is going to be his value. How much is he willing to accept? With Boras as his agent, he will probably not accept anything close to what his value will actually be worth. Ellsbury is only 28, so I could realistically see a 6, 7, or 8 year contract.

[redsoxrules]

It all depends on how Ellsbury does next year and stays on the field.

[jung]

I don't see ells getting close to those 2011 power numbers again. But I do think he will have very good seasons both in the field, ranging not throwing and at the plate, just not producing big HR numbers.

[Spitball]

I think the Ellsbury situation is one of the most important decisions that the front office has to make. I believe they need to address it this winter.

 

This winter they need to determine if they can possibly contend in 2013. If they decide they are rebuilding the foundation, they need to trade Ellsbury this winter.

 

They need to find out if Ellsbury and Boras are open to signing with the Red Sox, or do they plan to test the open market. If they don't get some kind of commitment, they need to trade Ellsbury this winter.

 

If Ellsbury is willing to sign a 2-year $30 million, then sign him.

 

Ellsbury is one of my favorite players. I have an Ellsbury jersey...but it might be wise to trade him this winter.

 

1) Jackie Bradley is on the horizon to play centerfield.

2) In all likelyhood, the Sox are not contending in 2013.

3) The Sox need resources to trade for pitching.

4) Scott Boras is a dickhead.

5) Players who rely on speed will eventually see that skill erode.

[redsoxrules]

I don't think Ellsbury would fetch much in a trade right now.

He's shown nothing at all this year

[Spitball]

I don't think Ellsbury would fetch much in a trade right now.

He's shown nothing at all this year

 

He will fetch less if he leaves via free agency.

[Spitball]

Olney: Price tag for Ellsbury 'astronomical'

 

By: Kirk Minihane

 

ESPN's Buster Olney joined the Mut & Merloni show Wednesday and was first asked about the future of Bobby Valentine, who some believed would be fired in Seattle following an 0-6 start to the current nine-game West Coast trip. Owner John Henry, who is in Seattle, has denied those rumors, insisting that Valentine will manage the Red Sox for the rest of the 2012 season.

 

"I wondered when they went out to the West Coast if they were going to fire him," Olney said. "But John Henry has been on the record twice now, saying that they'll get through the end of the year with him. And let's face it, part of this equation is the Red Sox ownership and Larry Lucchino would have to basically acknowledge a mistake if they were to fire him during the course of the year."

 

Jacoby Ellsbury has not come close to matching his 2011 numbers since returning in July, batting .262 with an OBP of .306 and just two home runs in 62 games this season. Ellsbury will be a free agent after the 2013 season, provided he doesn't sign a long-term deal with the Red Sox. Olney was asked what Ellsbury's value might be around the league should the Sox look to deal the center fielder this offseason.

 

"More and more, you see teams making conservative offers for players near their free agency, and Scott Boras isn't going to be someone to say 'OK, if you trade us to the Giants -- and I'm just picking a team out of a hat -- we'll negotiate a new contract with the Giants.' If Jacoby follows the pattern of all of Scott's clients he's going to go into free agency," Olney said. "I'm guessing at some point the Red Sox are going to talk to Scott, see if they can work out some deal, get a price tag on him, it's going to be monumental, it's going to be astronomical, then they'll go out and talk to teams about a trade. And I'll be surprised if anyone blows them away, because of the fact that he's going to be a free agent next fall with Scott as his agent."