Your 2013 Red Sox

SoxFanForsyth · August 28, 2012

I don't see the sox pursuing big FA starting pitchers unless it a one or two year deal. I think are going to be quite conservative with respect to the FA market.

Lee is a trade.

And I understand that everyone is a bit gunshy after being burned by the FA signings we've had, but my God, this team did not just turn into a small market, 65 million dollar payroll team.

They've cleared the payroll, but that doesn't mean that they shouldn't take any more risks on long term, high dollar deals. Their payroll is still going to be at least in the 150's to 170's next year, I can guarantee you that.

I'm looking forward to this offseason tremendously.

SoxFanForsyth · August 28, 2012

And FWIW, Pal - I bet if the Sox offered a deal that includes Doubront - Cecchini - Pimentel, and took on $22mm annually, the Phillies would bite at that quickly.

Behindenemylines · August 28, 2012

Lee is 34 and you can't rebuild your rotation around a 34 year old. You can't remove the contracts we just did, and start the rebuild with a 34 year old pitcher. The Boston media will have Hamilton in rehab before the end of spring training if he signs here. Both are good players, but I don't think they should be the foundation of the rebuild.

Palodios · August 28, 2012

The question remains - Do you want an ace, or do you want to keep running the rotation we had this year out there? Because the reality is that Lee would be off the books after the 2015 season. Which is likely the same time that any internally developed ace would be able to take over.

I think there are better trade candidates. The Phillies seem like they want to hold onto him badly enough that there are better options. I'd sooner make a trade for Peavy, Santana, Lincecum, Floyd, or pick up one of Haren/Sanchez/Marcum, all of those guys are much cheaper options for prospect/money.

jung · August 28, 2012

As for Cliff Lee, I don't think the issue will be spending money at all. I think if the Sox have an issue it will be that Lee smacks of the kind of deal that blew up in their faces. The problem they have had is not spending money but spending it poorly as in overpaying for guys that underperform.

Lee may well look to them like just that sort of "from the frying pan to the fire" kind of deal. If the Phils would pay part of Lee's salary I think the Sox would be interested but if the deal was to be straight up, Sox pay all of Lee's salary I would think the Sox would have reservations about that. They might be able to mitigate that risk in what they trade for him....meaning the Sox would either have the Phillies pay part of Lee's salary or the Sox give up very little to take Lee off their hands. I don't think you could say that Lee has been earning his keep at his bloated salary and that would be the issue.

Elktonnick · August 28, 2012

Lee is a trade.

And I understand that everyone is a bit gunshy after being burned by the FA signings we've had, but my God, this team did not just turn into a small market, 65 million dollar payroll team.

They've cleared the payroll, but that doesn't mean that they shouldn't take any more risks on long term, high dollar deals. Their payroll is still going to be at least in the 150's to 170's next year, I can guarantee you that.

I'm looking forward to this offseason tremendously.

I would be shocked if Cliff Lee leaves Philly

SoxSport · August 28, 2012

Just watched Gasper and Finn video on bringing back Ortiz. Finn, the smarter one on baseball, says no--but thinks they will. Gasper says bring him back for 2 years at 15 mil per year.

I say it's a waste of money at his age and durability. He can't stay on the field even as a DH. And what's the guarantee he doesn't revert to the declining form of a couple years ago? He gets a multi year and goes out of shape.

To me, this is an example of spending foolishly--wasting money because it's available. Besides, the guy has behaved like a prima donna the past year. Not great for the team.

DHs don't make big money. And old ones don't get multi year contracts. It's about time Henry and Lucchino got tough with these players they have spoiled all to hell the past few years.It's nuts to give big money to a guy like Ortiz with the team desperately needing to develop its young players.Are they concerned he might go to the Yankees? The Yankees are smart enough not to pay him that kind of dough. They have enough old rich guys of their own.

SoxSport · August 28, 2012

I would be shocked if Cliff Lee leaves Philly

Looks like they'll gamble on keeping their top 3 intact. Lee and Halladay have had sub-par years, and that's the real reason why the Phillies aren't making the playoffs--not the hitting.

Pretty much like the Red Sox.

They are heavily invested in pitching, and have no choice really but to keep the rotation intact. Plus they are paying Pap big money to close for top starters.

From the Red Sox view, stay away. Lee is getting old and could be in decline.

Another case of staying with their principles. No multi year contracts to guys over 32. And that includes Ortiz. They haven't been wrong about this yet. No time to change now.

Bellhorn04 · August 28, 2012

Just watched Gasper and Finn video on bringing back Ortiz. Finn, the smarter one on baseball, says no--but thinks they will. Gasper says bring him back for 2 years at 15 mil per year.

I say it's a waste of money at his age and durability. He can't stay on the field even as a DH. And what's the guarantee he doesn't revert to the declining form of a couple years ago? He gets a multi year and goes out of shape.
To me, this is an example of spending foolishly--wasting money because it's available. Besides, the guy has behaved like a prima donna the past year. Not great for the team.

DHs don't make big money. And old ones don't get multi year contracts. It's about time Henry and Lucchino got tough with these players they have spoiled all to hell the past few years.It's nuts to give big money to a guy like Ortiz with the team desperately needing to develop its young players.Are they concerned he might go to the Yankees? The Yankees are smart enough not to pay him that kind of dough. They have enough old rich guys of their own.

From 2004 to 2012 Ortiz has had 2 seasons where he played less than 145 games, this one and 2008.

I would absolutely bring him back if they can do it on reasonable terms, which are less than what Gasper is suggesting. It all comes to whether there really are any other bidders out there.

SoxFanForsyth · August 28, 2012

I think there are better trade candidates. The Phillies seem like they want to hold onto him badly enough that there are better options. I'd sooner make a trade for Peavy, Santana, Lincecum, Floyd, or pick up one of Haren/Sanchez/Marcum, all of those guys are much cheaper options for prospect/money.

Outside of Lincecum and to a lesser extent, Haren none of those are aces. Not to mention that both Haren and Lincecum are having years with significantly decreased velocities.

Certainly, throwing a Marcum, Sanchez, Peavy, Santana, or Floyd at our rotation is not going to get close to fixing it.

SoxFanForsyth · August 28, 2012

On Ortiz - I give him 2/22mm, but that's where I draw the line. If he wants a multi year deal, he's got to understand that one of the years he's going to be 39, and he's had an achilles problem in each of the last 2 years, one of which looks likes its going to sideline him for the better part of the entire 2nd half.

SoxFanForsyth · August 28, 2012

Want to hear something sad??

The PawSox, you know, the team without Lavarnway, Lars, Gomez, Middlebrooks, or Kalish, just beat Jair Jurrjens 3-1. You know, the Jair Jurrjens that shut down the Sox earlier this season?

Oye.

jung · August 28, 2012

Unbelievable.....the difference between how easily a pitcher can dismantle a just a bunch a guys'. The Pawsox are more of a team than the Bosox ever where this year. Jair cut the Red Sox to ribbons earlier this year.

Beckett is down 2-0 to the Rockies at the moment. Dodgers threatened in the 4th but could not push anything across. Beckett K's in the middle of the 5th with 2 on to stifle the embryonic rally.

Palodios · August 28, 2012

And FWIW, Pal - I bet if the Sox offered a deal that includes Doubront - Cecchini - Pimentel, and took on $22mm annually, the Phillies would bite at that quickly.

I know everyone wants the Red Sox to come into 2013 guns blazing, but trading away a high ceiling hitter, and a quality pitching option that could bloom into a cost controlled #3 type is exactly what this organization will look to avoid.

There are going to be lots of one year, and two year deals. The guys they give multi-year contracts to won't have red flags.

jung · August 28, 2012

The guys they give multi-year contracts to won't have red flags.

Think Pal is correct here. I believe they will avoid even getting within pissing distance of the types of deals that got them into trouble last time. They will spend money...big money...but will spend it on guys that they feel good about as opposed to guys that have big names and big past careers but are basically ready to hit mid-career or head for the back nine.

Palodios · August 28, 2012

Outside of Lincecum and to a lesser extent, Haren none of those are aces. Not to mention that both Haren and Lincecum are having years with significantly decreased velocities.

Certainly, throwing a Marcum, Sanchez, Peavy, Santana, or Floyd at our rotation is not going to get close to fixing it.

Peavy is probably my favorite choice right now. You may not have noticed, but he's been pitching almost like an ace again this year.

The White Sox have a 1/20 option for him, if they do excercise it, they'd probably be willing to move him for the right deal.

SouthieFanatic · August 28, 2012

I'd give a look to Lincecum just cause of the fact not many players in the AL east have seen his stuff. I don't exactly know what his deal is, but he has for sure lost a TON of velocity. Liriano is a risky player (injuries), but if we could get him for cheap then i'd like that. Peavy hasn't be San Diego Peavy since, well since he left. However, he should be the number one target. 1. Peavy 2. Lincecum 3. Liriano/Haren. IMO

Mr Apeşkin · August 28, 2012

No way a lock but wouldn't be surprised if John Farrell became available this year.

It was great to see Dice-K pitch well yesterday but would not give him anymore than a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

For next year bearing in mind unless the Dodgers come back craving Lackey;

SP - Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront. While Morales has pitched well Matt Barnes has done well and should be given the chance.

However looking at that four what the rotation is really missing is a Curt Schilling type leader someone like a Roy Halliday but that type of option would be too expensive.

Bullpen has promise with Miller, Atchinson (when he returns) Bailey, Mortenson etc.

What we don't need is a high price free agent.

SoxSport · August 28, 2012

Here's a different media perspective on Papi:

http://bostonherald.com/sports/columnists/view.bg?articleid=1061156296&srvc=sports&position=4

Buckley says putting all those hard won bucks on a 37yo DH who gets hurt trotting around the bases on somebody else's HR is a red flag. I have to agree, though Cody Ross says Papi is an anchor in the middle of the lineup--when he's playing. So it's a tough call.

It seems that the Sox are getting a lot younger--going in a different direction with emphasis on their prospects. Papi represents the past. You hate to see them spending big bucks on the past.

SoxSport · August 28, 2012

I hope they don't go out and spend all that money they just saved foolishly on guys who are past their prime. Henry should put a lid on that, as he has put a lid on spending this year. He was the one who just cleaned house of all those exorbitant contracts Epstein--and the current FO-- stuck him with.

He clearly is viewing this team more as a business than a hobby right now. The money now has to be spent wisely. That's why dumping money on old Papi is very risky, and may be unwise.

SouthieFanatic · August 28, 2012

No way a lock but wouldn't be surprised if John Farrell became available this year.

It was great to see Dice-K pitch well yesterday but would not give him anymore than a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

For next year bearing in mind unless the Dodgers come back craving Lackey;
SP - Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront. While Morales has pitched well Matt Barnes has done well and should be given the chance.
However looking at that four what the rotation is really missing is a Curt Schilling type leader someone like a Roy Halliday but that type of option would be too expensive.
Bullpen has promise with Miller, Atchinson (when he returns) Bailey, Mortenson etc.

What we don't need is a high price free agent.

Barnes is only in high- A ball right now and he's doing okay. I wouldn't expect to see him until 2014 at the earliest. Only legit prospects we have a chance of seeing next year are Bradley and Bogaerts. Barnes needs to at least get some innings in with Portland before we can even talk about him in the rotation or pen. It's highly unlikely he'll be with boston next year

redsoxfan3 · August 28, 2012

I have not been around for a while because I am working full time, attending college full time, volunteering, and playing baseball in an amateur league. I know I missed a lot of conversation with the whole Dodger trade. The only thing I can say about that is that I am okay with the trade, even though I really liked Gonzalez.

As for next year, here is what I am thinking.

C: We currently have Lavarnway and Salty. I am content with that combo, although I would really like to keep Lavarnway and get rid of Salty. Correct me if I am wrong, but Salty is arbitration eligible, and if we do not offer him arbitration, then he is a free agent, correct? I really want us to take a serious look into Mike Napoli. He can play 1B, C, and DH. I know that he did not have a great year this year, but he is a guy that can hit for power and has a lot of versatility in terms of playing both 1B and C. I would love for Napoli to split time with Lavarnway. I really think that Ryan is going to continue to get better and I think as time goes on he will become a better MLB hitter. The potential is there. If the price is right for Napoli, then I am all for it, especially with him only being 30. There is always the option of signing Napoli and keeping Salty and sending Lavarnway back to AAA. That might be a better option to see if we can trade Salty and get some prospects in return.

DH: Big Papi is the name of the game. I read recently that he wants to come back. He had a great year before going to the DL and we could use his consistency in the lineup. If for some reason he gets hurt, then that is where a guy like Lavarnway or Napoli could take some time and fill-in at DH. I think we need to work it out with Big Papi and make sure we sign him. The money is obviously there, so do what it takes to resign him (just don't go overboard).

1B: This is one position that will be interesting to keep an eye on. James Loney will be a free agent and is only 29. He has never really blown anyone away with his power, but he has had a couple of 90 RBI seasons. He is a career .284 hitter, but is having a down year this year. If he comes cheap, he is probably a guy that can be a decent 1B for us next year, especially if Napoli is there to help play some 1B. In 14 games, Mauro Gomez is hitting .292 this year. He can play 3B as well, but is a defensive liability out there, but he is a guy that could potentially play 1B, 3B, and DH if needed. I am not sure if he under contract with us next year, but if he is, I could see him bouncing back and forth from AAA and the majors. He could be a third option behind Loney and Napoli. David Ortiz has also proved he can play some 1B, so those interleague games look for Big Papi to get some starts like usual. Carlos Lee is another guy that will be a free agent. He is getting older and his numbers are declining, but he is an interesting option if we can sign him cheap for one year if we do not resign James Loney. Kotchman, Nady, Overbay, and Pena are all free agent 1B as well in 2013. There are options, but there are not great options, so resigning Loney, signing Napoli, and keeping Gomez around sound like good options.

2B: It does not get much easier than this. Pedroia is the sure lock at 2B. He has had his fair share of injuries, so keeping Aviles and/or Ciraco around as a utility player to play 2B in case of an injury is important. If healthy, look for Pedroia to hit close to his career averages.

SS: SS will be an interesting position. Aviles, Ciriaco, and Iglesias are all internal options. Aviles is arbitration eligible this year. Iglesias is under contract until 2017. He is a guy that has just not made the next step. Look for him to start the year in the minors, although he will be competing for the starting SS position come Spring Training, along with Aviles and Ciriaco. Ciriaco is a guy that has obviously been a big spark to our team this year. It will be interesting to see who wins the starting SS position this Spring, but look for a close competition. If Ciriaco does not win the position, he will be a good utility player with a lot of energy and speed. The free agent options for SS are slim with Bartlett, Betancourt, Blum, Cedeno, Tejada, Izturis, Vizquel, etc. I don't know if there is really anyone that is worth taking a chance on that will be much better than Aviles, Ciriaco, and Iglesias. I think the best option is to go with the internal options and see who wins the job this Spring. If Aviles wins, then Ciriaco is a good option for a utility player, and vice versa. The guy to keep an eye on will be Iglesias to see how he progresses.

3B: Will Middlebrooks is the future 3B for this team. It is his position to lose. He will be healthy and ready to go by 2013. Look for Ciriaco to compete with him at 3B, although it is a long shot for anyone to beat out Middlebrooks for the position in 2013. David Wright has a 16 million club option for 2013. He is really the only free agent worth looking at if the Mets for some odd reason do not pick up his option. That is a long shot.

LF: This is where we need to take a serious look at the Free Agent market. Podsednik, Ellsbury, Kalish, Ross, Sweeney, and Nava are all internal options. Podsednik has been consistent at the plate. Nava has proven that he can play LF in Fenway and had a decent season. With Pods getting older and Nava not being more than a 4th OF, this could be an interesting position to evaluate via the Free Agent market. Delmon Young has had a decent season with Detroit and is only 27. Juan Pierre is 35 and is another option. Carlos Lee is another option who can play both LF and 1B, but he is also aging. Scott Hairston is only 32. Josh Hamilton is probably the most intriguing guy. He will cost a lot of money and I know the front office is probably trying to avoid big contracts, but if you are going to dish out some money, Hamilton is probably the guy you would want to give some money to. We can more than likely afford to sign Josh Hamilton long-term and also lock up Jacoby Ellsbury long-term. If we can somehow sign Napoli, then that might increase the interest of Josh Hamilton in signing with the Red Sox since they have played for the Rangers together. Some might disagree, but I think we need to do what we can to sign Josh Hamilton. Nava and Podsednik are both guys that will be fighting for a 4th OF position if we sign Hamilton. Assuming we give Podsednik an invite to Spring Training, which I don't see why we wouldn't after the year he is having with us.

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury is our CF without a doubt. If he can avoid injuries, then he will be fine. He might not have as good of a year ever again as he had in 2011, but he will be a reliable leadoff hitter and a reliable defensive CF. Kalish is probably the guy that is in the running to be a 4th OF to backup Ellsbury. Look for us next year to look to extend Ellsbury long-term, because if he hits the Free Agent market in 2014, it might be hard to resign him.

RF: There are a lot of teams interested in Cody Ross. I think we need to resign him to maybe around a 3 year/21 million deal. He is worth it and it is not a huge investment. He hits well in Fenway and a lot of fans love him. I don't think we need to do anymore of this platoon stuff with him and Sweeney. RF is for Cody Ross. Sweeney, Nava, Kalish, and Podsednik are all internal options that will be fighting for OF spots. I think we should go with 5 OF's if we sign Hamilton. Start Hamilton in LF, Ellsbury in CF, and Ross in RF. That leaves two spots available. I really am hoping that Kalish and Podsednik can win out the last two spots. If that is the case that means Nava will be in the minors and that we have to somehow trade Sweeney. I am not big on Sweeney after him hurting his hand after punching a door. He can go lose his temper somewhere else.

That leaves the position players looking like this:

C: Napoli/Lavarnway

DH: Ortiz/Napoli/Lavarnway

1B: Loney/Napoli

2B: Pedroia/Ciriaco

SS: Aviles/Ciriaco

3B: Middlebrooks/Ciriaco

LF: Hamilton/Podsednik

CF: Ellsbury/Podsednik/Kalish

RF: Ross/Kalish

That is 13 position players, so that leaves only 12 pitchers. I would be all for only carrying one OF if need be. I am okay with Kalish in AAA. I think Podsednik is a good 4th OF. He can play all three positions. He can hit for average. He also brings a lot of speed. Gomez will also be in AAA and will get called up if one of Big Papi, Napoli, or Loney gets injured. I have Iglesias starting the year in AAA as well and he gets the call up if any one of Ciriaco, Middlebrooks, Pedroia, or Aviles goes down with an injury. Kalish and Nava are both going to be guys that get called up also in case of an injury.

SP:

1. Jon Lester

2. Clay Buchholz

3. Felix Doubront

4. Franklin Morales

5. John Lackey

This is where it gets hard to predict. Lackey will be ready to go. I think he will be A LOT better now. I am not expecting him to be an ace, but I think he will bounce back and have a decent season as a number 5. It is time for Lester to become our true ace. He has had a bad season and is finally regaining his form. I think that he will have a better year next year, but only time will tell. Buchholz has a lot of potential. If he can pitch consistently like he has recently (aside from his last outing), then there is no reason to expect nothing less out of him then stats from a number 2 pitcher. Doubront is a guy that is finally living up to his potential. He is wearing down at the end of this season, but I think he will be a decent number 3. I think we can expect more consistency from him next year and more innings. Morales deserves his shot to start. He has proven that he can start, so let him have his chance from day one. Cook and Dice-K might get invites to Spring Training, but I don't think either makes the opening day roster. There are going to be some interesting option like Greinke, Kuroda, etc. on the Free Agent market. I am not against trying to sign a starting pitcher, whatever will make this team better is all that matters at the end of the day.

BP:

Bailey (closer)

Melancon (set-up)

Bard

Miller

Breslow

Atchison

Aceves

Mortensen/Padilla

I do have 13 pitchers total, including 8 in the bullpen. This is a tough call in the bullpen. You have a big question mark in Daniel Bard. Who knows if he can regain form back to an elite set-up man, if he can then I am all for having both him and Melancon as the set-up guys. Tazawa is also another guy to keep an eye on. There is a lot of competition this Spring for the bullpen. We have Bailey, Melancon, Bard, Miller, Padilla, Breslow, Atchison, Aceves, Mortensen, Tazawa, Beato, Stewart, etc. fighting for 8 bullpen spots. Possibly throw Morales into the equation if for some reason he does not start next year. I really don't think there is much need to go out and get more bullpen help. I think there is a surplus there.

The starting rotation, SS, LF, and 1B are the position that will be fun to watch this next year. I also think by signing Napoli that we will be improving at C. I didn't really change a whole lot to the roster. There is still a lot of talent there. By adding Hamilton and Napoli, that could change a lot in the lineup. This could potentially be the batting order:

1. Ellsbury - CF

2. Pedroia - 2B

3. Hamilton - LF

4. Ortiz -DH

5. Ross - RF

6. Middlebrooks -3B

7. Napoli - C

8. Loney -1B

9. Aviles/Ciriaco - SS

Put the order any way you want to, but that is a pretty good lineup.

redsoxfan3 · August 28, 2012