Your 2013 Red Sox

[Orange Juiced]

So basically we do nothing to change this below .500 team?

 

Well, I do not want to just give players away and get nothing in return. If you buy the Beckett odd/even year pattern (and it's a striking pattern, to be honest, one that's held up his entire career), then you expect him to be good next year. Trading him now will get the Sox almost nothing in return, *and* they'll almost certainly have to eat most or all of his salary in the process. I don't think you want to trade Buchholz. Lester is moveable, I'm sure, but the guy is coming around and has been too good for his entire career to think he's toast. Ok, maybe you can add a better starter than a Lackey, Doubront, or Morales, fine. But who are you going to get? Here's a list from Cot's:

 

Gavin Floyd (option)

Zach Greinke

Tim Hudson

Dan Haren (option)

Jake Peavy (option)

Ervin Santana (option)

James Shields (option)

Shawn Marcum

Anibal Sanchez

 

All the guys with options probably will be picked up by their respective teams. You could go get a Tim Hudson or a Greinke, sure. Both will cost a pretty penny, and the Sox seem to be right up against the luxury tax threshold, which it looks like they're not going to cross.

 

If they could deal Beckett away and get a ton of salary relief, and then add a Hudson, sure, maybe you think about something like that. He's pitched well in the AL before so I think he can handle it. But he's getting up there in age and I don't know how much he will have in the tank. But still, solid pitcher.

 

I have advocated trading Ellsbury. Perhaps you missed that. I would try to trade him for a really good pitcher (you may have to throw something else in there as well). Maybe you could swing a deal with the Giants whereby you trade Ellsbury, Beckett, and a prospect for Angel Pagan and, say, Madison Bumgarner. They get by far the better OF and a pitcher who probably will do very well in the NL. Plus a prospect to boot. The Sox get a solid OF to replace Ellsbury, and a really good left-handed starter. And the Sox save a ton of money. The Giants are one of a few teams that could probably absorb Beckett's contract.

 

So if you could swing something like that, sure. But I'm not interested in just giving pieces away for nothing.

[jung]

I don't remember Tito having to deal with a gassed bullpen as early last year as V has had to deal with it this year. Remember last year Tito had Ace eating innings instead of closing. Regardless of the innings being similar the pen has gassed out earlier this year than last. In any event the innings themselves are very similar. It still makes the point that the pen has been gassed out both years consecutively. That is the main point anyway. The pen had the white flag up last year and has it up again this year.

[jimbob728]

Here is my idea for the 2013 team:

 

1. Sign Free agent C Mike Napoli

2. Trade Salty to Cleveland for P Masterson

3. Trade Beckett, Ellsbury, Aceves and Bard to the Dodgers for OF Ethier and P Billingsley

4. Trade Iglesias to the A's for Brandon Inge and minor leaguer

 

 

Roster

C Napoli

C Lavarnway

1b Gonzalez

2b Pedroia

SS Ciriaco

3b Middlebrooks

LF Crawford

CF Ross

RF Ethier

UT Aviles

UT Inge

OF Nava

DH Ortiz

 

SP Buchholz

SP Lester

SP Masterson

SP Billingsley

SP Dubront

 

RP Morales

RP Breslow

RP Miller

RP Hill

RP Lackey ( because we are stuck with him, long man, mop whatever)

RP Bailey

RP Atchinson if he is not Tommy John DL

 

I tried to keep cost in mind or I would have also said sign Josh Hamilton. Additionally, I would trade Nick Punto to anybody for couple of cans of Sam Adams, one for each of Lackey's hands. That would at least keep a baseball out of them for a little while.

[Laser Show]

How crazy is it that Crawford has already equaled his 2011 oWAR?

[jung]

Don't understand why they are still waiting for Crawford's surgery. He has done well...I would way prefer that he head into surgery on a positive note than hang around to have the season go sour on him , exacerbate the injury he has or take another injury. Get him into surgery so that he can have some time to prepare for next season.

[Rdsxmbnt]

^ This is a 4th place team this season. Replacing Beckett with the oft-injured Johnson will not improve this team. This type of tinkering around the edges will have our boys watching the playoffs from their couches. They will miss the playoffs for the 4th consecutive years.

 

Here's the thing though, if you look at the offense (second in runs scored), it is pretty elite. That's without full seasons of Crawford, Ellsbury and under performing guys like Gonzalez and Pedroia. I think all those guys back next year keeps this an elite group.

 

Bullpen also is pretty good, 3.38 ERA and has been even better than that since the awful start. Bailey will be an elite piece to add and any number of AAA guys could be impact pitchers also. I think we're ok here too.

 

The problem has been Beckett and Lester. They are supposed to be your top guys and give you a chance to win the majority of games. The team is a pathetic 16-27 in their starts. On the other hand all the other pitchers (Buchholz, Cook, Morales, Doubront, etc) have combined for 41-32 which is good out of the back end of your rotation. If the team goes just .500 in Beckett/Lester starts then we are in a wildcard spot.

 

I think adding Johnson, who will pitch innings and keep us in ball games, and counting on a Lester resurgance will make us a winning team.

 

The Yankees are 27-16 in Sabathia/Kuroda starts, if those guys were as bad as Lester/Beckett the Yankees would have the same record as us.

 

Bottom line you need your top two guys to win games. I think we can count on Lester to potentially do that, I think the 2nd piece is what we need to find.

 

EDIT: Also, for 2011 up until September, the team went 35-17 in Beckett/Lester starts and as a result the team was a run-away favorite. That's the kind of production you need out of your 1/2 slot

[a700hitter]

Here's the thing though, if you look at the offense (second in runs scored), it is pretty elite. That's without full seasons of Crawford, Ellsbury and under performing guys like Gonzalez and Pedroia. I think all those guys back next year keeps this an elite group.

 

Bullpen also is pretty good, 3.38 ERA and has been even better than that since the awful start. Bailey will be an elite piece to add and any number of AAA guys could be impact pitchers also. I think we're ok here too.

 

The problem has been Beckett and Lester. They are supposed to be your top guys and give you a chance to win the majority of games. The team is a pathetic 16-27 in their starts. On the other hand all the other pitchers (Buchholz, Cook, Morales, Doubront, etc) have combined for 41-32 which is good out of the back end of your rotation. If the team goes just .500 in Beckett/Lester starts then we are in a wildcard spot.

 

I think adding Johnson, who will pitch innings and keep us in ball games, and counting on a Lester resurgance will make us a winning team.

 

The Yankees are 27-16 in Sabathia/Kuroda starts, if those guys were as bad as Lester/Beckett the Yankees would have the same record as us.

 

Bottom line you need your top two guys to win games. I think we can count on Lester to potentially do that, I think the 2nd piece is what we need to find.

 

EDIT: Also, for 2011 up until September, the team went 35-17 in Beckett/Lester starts and as a result the team was a run-away favorite. That's the kind of production you need out of your 1/2 slot

It will not be enough, and I don't think lester can be counted on as a top of the rotation guy unless he rebounds strongly in these last 7 weeks and shows that he can go deep into games. The bull pen ERA is completely misleading. The bull pen's performance in late and close games is one of the worst in the league.

[jung]

Sorry but I just don't buy it. For my money both Beckett and Lester have been regressing in ways that will not just disappear in the off season. Whether Beckett stays or goes he will have work to do in order to be a respectable starter and IMO he will never be the pitcher he was at one time.

 

Lester may be able to once again be the pitcher that he once was but his issues did not arrive on a space ship from Mars and they won't be leaving by that route either. Lester also has issues that he must work on. I do think he stands a chance of returning to the pitcher that he once was but nobody is going to wave a magic wand over him and walla....Lester is back. It is not happening that way.

 

Having seen what this rotation looks like without a legit 1 two years in a row I am sort of surprised that folks want to bring in something less than that. If you really want to make a run at the WS, you need a really solid rotation and it needs a leader. I have said that I for one would not be disappointed if this turned into a two year process because this team is f***ed up enough to need two years of fixing at least anyway. So if it took two years to get a legit 1 in here...so be it. No sense in beating a dead horse farther but as I have stated before IMO they get a 1 in here making for a giant change in the Sox prospects getting to and thriving in the post season or they don't in which case we are very likely to see more of what we have seen already.

 

By 2014 we should finally have the top of the lineup figured out. Ells will be here or gone....very likely gone. I can only hope that the Sox find a way to come to their senses and are able finally to move Crawford around to the places in the lineup that suite the lineup. I cannot stand the idea of paying somebody $21M a year and being held hostage because the guy insists that he must hit in the 2 hole. Once again something that points to the stupidity of the Crawford deal in the first place. We might even have Bradley here playing CF by then. This could be a very different team at that point.

 

But to put it bluntly the Sox really cannot afford to have players dictate where they bat in the lineup. This lineup is hardly a lineup at all as either the Sox mash or they don't score. The lineup needs to make sense from top to bottom with each spot considered important but different. I want the players to be inserted where they make the most sense for the lineup not the lineup jury rigged to suite the foibles of particular players.

 

Then the Sox need to be able to score runs by some other means than just mashing. As the year wears on and the competition gets tougher, mashing gets harder and harder to do and the Sox simply lose to many of these 6-4, 5-3, 7-5 ball games, balls games that are not slugfests but are not really pitchers duals either. We just lose to many of those games. Good teams just do not lose those games in the bucket loads that the Sox lose them in. Again I do not mean to rob attention from the starting pitching but losing so many of these ball games is in part a reflection on the fact that the team is poorly constructed and the inmates have the keys to the asylum.

 

Fixing the starting pitching will go a long way to curing this teams problems. However once we are competing in more of these ball games it will be just as frustrating as it is today when we can't lay down a bunt....don't work a count....don't draw walks to save our skin......have all this speed that is not optimally used...don't hit behind the runners....the list of miserable performances is longer than my arm.

[redsoxbeatz]

Lackey has to go somehow. He IS cancer.

[SoxFan02]

Here is my idea for the 2013 team:

 

1. Sign Free agent C Mike Napoli

2. Trade Salty to Cleveland for P Masterson

3. Trade Beckett, Ellsbury, Aceves and Bard to the Dodgers for OF Ethier and P Billingsley

4. Trade Iglesias to the A's for Brandon Inge and minor leaguer

 

 

Roster

C Napoli

C Lavarnway

1b Gonzalez

2b Pedroia

SS Ciriaco

3b Middlebrooks

LF Crawford

CF Ross

RF Ethier

UT Aviles

UT Inge

OF Nava

DH Ortiz

 

SP Buchholz

SP Lester

SP Masterson

SP Billingsley

SP Dubront

 

RP Morales

RP Breslow

RP Miller

RP Hill

RP Lackey ( because we are stuck with him, long man, mop whatever)

RP Bailey

RP Atchinson if he is not Tommy John DL

 

I tried to keep cost in mind or I would have also said sign Josh Hamilton. Additionally, I would trade Nick Punto to anybody for couple of cans of Sam Adams, one for each of Lackey's hands. That would at least keep a baseball out of them for a little while.

 

 

Your kidding yourself if you think ciriaco can actually sustain his production through an entire year and John Lackey has produced a WAR better than Doubront's currently projected WAR every year of his professional career with the exception of last year (when he was pitching with a shoulder that needed tommy john surgery) I would bet pretty much everything that he will be in the starting rotation next year barring any set backs from the surgery. I don't really understand the perception that he is a cancer, literally everyone in that clubhouse loves him except for the media (and considering i don't know of a single boston reporter that I like-maybe Speier-i can't blame him).

[jacksonianmarch]

Shoulders don't ever need tommy john surgery. Also, the idea of dealing Salty for Masterson is hilarious

[Emmz]

No' date=' my superior smartness gives me certain freedoms with the language.[/quote']

 

"I think that statement alone reflects on your burgeoning intelligence".

[a700hitter]

Your kidding yourself if you think ciriaco can actually sustain his production through an entire year and John Lackey has produced a WAR better than Doubront's currently projected WAR every year of his professional career with the exception of last year (when he was pitching with a shoulder that needed tommy john surgery) I would bet pretty much everything that he will be in the starting rotation next year barring any set backs from the surgery. I don't really understand the perception that he is a cancer' date=' literally everyone in that clubhouse loves him except for the media (and considering i don't know of a single boston reporter that I like-maybe Speier-i can't blame him).[/quote']I think Ciriaco could be a very useful super utility player who gets 358-400 ABs a year. He's only 26, and he is a grat fielder and good base runner. He hit the ball hard more often than not. That is something that Alex Cora and Nick Punto could never do. I could see him being the primary SS too, sharing time with Aviles, if he is still here.

[wyo-sox]

"I think that statement alone reflects on your burgeoning intelligence".

 

Well played, I'm impressed- Seinfeld?????

 

I'm in Minnesota today, taking the boys to a Saints game as the Twins are on the road. I will be sure to wave and say hello.

[Laser Show]

Shoulders don't ever need tommy john surgery. Also' date=' the idea of dealing Salty for Masterson is hilarious[/quote']

 

No worries, you can trade Pineda for Cain if Jimbob is ever your GM.

[jung]

I would like to see Ciriaco get more time here in 2013. It has become exceedingly difficult to get a read on what the Sox might do based on trying to take the team in some direction or the other. The only definitive trends I can identify any longer are "cover our ass for the last f***ed up move we made" and "lets not do something that will ruffle the feathers of the fans regardless of whether or not its good for the team". Those are two incentives that have success written all over them.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Red Sox come into the 2013 season with Ciriaco as their starting SS, then they have royally f***ed themselves in 2013. Ciriaco should come to camp in 2013 on the roster bubble without anything for granted. This guy has shown nothing in his entire career sans this tiny sample to warrant a guarantee of a roster spot. If he is guaranteed a spot, then you better hope Iggy is ready

[a700hitter]

If the Red Sox come into the 2013 season with Ciriaco as their starting SS' date=' then they have royally f***ed themselves in 2013. Ciriaco should come to camp in 2013 on the roster bubble without anything for granted. This guy has shown nothing in his entire career sans this tiny sample to warrant a guarantee of a roster spot. If he is guaranteed a spot, then you better hope Iggy is ready[/quote']He's 26 years old.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If the Red Sox come into the 2013 season with Ciriaco as their starting SS' date=' then they have royally f***ed themselves in 2013. Ciriaco should come to camp in 2013 on the roster bubble without anything for granted. This guy has shown nothing in his entire career sans this tiny sample to warrant a guarantee of a roster spot. If he is guaranteed a spot, then you better hope Iggy is ready[/quote']

 

As much as I hate to admit this, Jackso is right.

 

This is another classic example of an overhyped player who is running hot because of a high BABIP (.411). He's got an 18.1% K rate and a 1.1% BB rate.

 

He's got plus, plus speed, but he's going to fall off a cliff soon, just like Nava did. BABIP always normalizes itself, and Ciriaco is no exception.

 

If we're going to go with a rookie SS, we go with Iglesias. At least with poor offensive numbers, you get a gold glove. Not to mention, Arnie Beyeler (PawSox manager) just recently said:

 

“The process, he’s to the point now where I think he could compete at the plate in the big leagues. A year ago, he didn’t. You saw that. He’s at the point now where he understands what a good at-bat is. He looks at pitches. He’s not afraid to hit with two strikes. A year ago, it was just, ‘Get me out of here. I’m hacking. I hope I hit one. I’m going to go sit down.’ He didn’t really understand the whole thing. He realized, ‘I’m overmatched up here.’ Now he can put an at-bat together. He can battle you. He can move a runner. He can put a ball over your head if you don’t respect him a little bit. When he gets in a positive count, he can put a good swing on a ball and hit a ball over the fence. There’s some power in there. He hit a ball out in Durham that jumped out of the ballpark over that monster down there. When he hit it last year, it was pretty good — it was pull, pull side, up in the zone, but the ball jumps a little bit. There’s some power in there when he gets comfortable enough to generate it. But his focus is a little bit more on line drives, hitting behind the runner, letting the ball get deep. He’s really working on that, putting the ball in play. That’s the biggest jump he’s probably made. He’s realizing that it’s important to put the ball in play, that he can move runners and hit behind guys and not strike out, give at-bats away, and he’s done a really good job of that.”

 

So it sounds like Iglesias is starting to figure some things out down in Pawtucket. And that may be the only thing that the Red Sox needed to see to throw him in the lineup. He doesn't have to hit .300, just take the occasional walk, move the runners over, essentially be a productive out, and play your elite defense up the middle.

[Bellhorn04]

That's good news on Iglesias.

 

Ciriaco seems like a good utility guy.

[a700hitter]

As much as I hate to admit this, Jackso is right.

 

This is another classic example of an overhyped player who is running hot because of a high BABIP (.411). He's got an 18.1% K rate and a 1.1% BB rate.

 

He's got plus, plus speed, but he's going to fall off a cliff soon, just like Nava did. BABIP always normalizes itself, and Ciriaco is no exception.

 

If we're going to go with a rookie SS, we go with Iglesias. At least with poor offensive numbers, you get a gold glove. Not to mention, Arnie Beyeler (PawSox manager) just recently said:

 

“The process, he’s to the point now where I think he could compete at the plate in the big leagues. A year ago, he didn’t. You saw that. He’s at the point now where he understands what a good at-bat is. He looks at pitches. He’s not afraid to hit with two strikes. A year ago, it was just, ‘Get me out of here. I’m hacking. I hope I hit one. I’m going to go sit down.’ He didn’t really understand the whole thing. He realized, ‘I’m overmatched up here.’ Now he can put an at-bat together. He can battle you. He can move a runner. He can put a ball over your head if you don’t respect him a little bit. When he gets in a positive count, he can put a good swing on a ball and hit a ball over the fence. There’s some power in there. He hit a ball out in Durham that jumped out of the ballpark over that monster down there. When he hit it last year, it was pretty good — it was pull, pull side, up in the zone, but the ball jumps a little bit. There’s some power in there when he gets comfortable enough to generate it. But his focus is a little bit more on line drives, hitting behind the runner, letting the ball get deep. He’s really working on that, putting the ball in play. That’s the biggest jump he’s probably made. He’s realizing that it’s important to put the ball in play, that he can move runners and hit behind guys and not strike out, give at-bats away, and he’s done a really good job of that.”

 

So it sounds like Iglesias is starting to figure some things out down in Pawtucket. And that may be the only thing that the Red Sox needed to see to throw him in the lineup. He doesn't have to hit .300, just take the occasional walk, move the runners over, essentially be a productive out, and play your elite defense up the middle.

SFF, Ciriaco has had no hype. When Spring Training started, no one knew his name. He completely outplayed Iglesias in Spring Training and he continued to to so for 3 months in AAA. He earned the promotion. Iglesias is the guy who has been hyped. This isn't the first time this season that someone has posted about how he was finally starting to hit. We're waiting.

[SoxSport]

Forget the players. They need to clean house upstairs: the coaches, the head trainer, Valentine, Cherington, Lucchino. Larry needs to go back to his administrative job, and they need to hire a VP in charge of the team. Somebody with senior experience from the outside. I've suggested John Hart previously.

[butch]

pathetic

[Orange Juiced]

SFF' date=' Ciriaco has had no hype. When Spring Training started, no one knew his name. He completely outplayed Iglesias in Spring Training and he continued to to so for 3 months in AAA. He earned the promotion. Iglesias is the guy who has been hyped. This isn't the first time this season that someone has posted about how he was finally starting to hit. We're waiting.[/quote']

 

I agree with you 700. Ciriaco actually has amazing major league numbers. Granted, not a lot of opportunity, but here's his full major league line (not counting tonight):

 

128 ab, 18 r, 43 h, 8 2b, 4 3b, 1 hr, 18 rbi, 8 sb, 1 cs, .336/.346/.484/.831, 121 ops+

 

In the minors this year, he hit .301/.318/.406/.724. Not ARod-esque, but also not Iglesias-esque. Right now, Ciriaco is a better all-around baseball player than Iglesias is. He absolutely earned the right to be with the major league club.

[jung]

I know nobody wants to hear this but in the end the Sox may end up lucky to have both Ciriaco and Iggy.

[RedSoxNC84]

A Ciriaco/Iggy platoon looks more attractive to me than an Aviles/Punto platoon.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF' date=' Ciriaco has had no hype. When Spring Training started, no one knew his name. He completely outplayed Iglesias in Spring Training and he continued to to so for 3 months in AAA. He earned the promotion. Iglesias is the guy who has been hyped. This isn't the first time this season that someone has posted about how he was finally starting to hit. We're waiting.[/quote']

 

You don't understand what I'm saying.

 

Ciriaco is hitting because his BABIP is .405. That's an absolutely ridiculous and completely unsustainable pace.

 

On top of that, he's only hitting .333 with that ridiculous pace. He takes zero walks. He's got speed, that is it. His defense is good, not great.

 

I don't care about how much a player is hyped. I care about how they can perform, and Iglesias has the glove that can win baseball games.

 

Ciriaco is Daniel Nava 2.0. He's going to regress, and when he does, everyone will be calling for the next SS because his defense isn't good enough to keep him up here.

[SemperFi Sox]

We finally get a bonafide stud prospect at SS and he's most likely going to have to move to LF or 3B. Just our luck.

[a700hitter]

You don't understand what I'm saying.

 

Ciriaco is hitting because his BABIP is .405. That's an absolutely ridiculous and completely unsustainable pace.

 

On top of that, he's only hitting .333 with that ridiculous pace. He takes zero walks. He's got speed, that is it. His defense is good, not great.

 

I don't care about how much a player is hyped. I care about how they can perform, and Iglesias has the glove that can win baseball games.

 

Ciriaco is Daniel Nava 2.0. He's going to regress, and when he does, everyone will be calling for the next SS because his defense isn't good enough to keep him up here.

He's not Daniel Nava 2.0, because he can run and play stellar defense at several positions. Nava can do none of those things. Ciriaco actually has some major league tools. Shortstops don't have to hit as much as Outfielders, but he hits enough to play SS for us right now. The guy is a pretty good fielder. Iglesias isn't the most patient hitter either. He'll have his chance to win the job in March. Regardless, Ciriaco is a nice versatile utility type player.

[jung]

Amazing just amazing...we have gone on mostly even as a board making excuses for and accepting that total sack of s*** Aviles at SS for most of a season and question whether Ciriaco can play the position or not. I swear to God it is enough to drive you to drink.

 

I would love Iggy to be here and playing SS....the way they have handled SS here is one of my biggest disappointments with this team. However Ciriaco has a place here as well, doing something....anything. I am tired of the half baked s*** that we have been seeing in Red Sox uniforms of late and I am completely willing to see a bunch of this trash just sent packing to get some fresh blood in here. Punto can be brought in here for us to endure for a year but there is no place for Ceriaco?

 

If they can't flesh off enough of this slop in red hose to make room for both they are just blind or to arrogant to admit their mistakes....maybe both.

 

Ceriaco has what Nava never had...talent. Nava makes the most he can out of being a smart discipled ballplayer...that is as far as it goes.