Would you do an Ellsbury for Lincecum trade?

[a700hitter]

This team needs to prepare for the departure/decline of David Ortiz. Even if he re-signs' date=' he will never hit like 2011 ever again. Losing Ellsbury and Ortiz is bad enough. Replacing RF with a league average player could devastate the offense.[/quote']Agreed Ortiz was one of the offensive keys last season and probably the teams most consistent hitter. It has been that way for almost 10 seasons. They do need to plan for the post-Ortiz era. That means getting another big bat in here just in case he does decline precipitously. i think Beltran would be a fine stop gap and reinforcement for Ortiz.

[Laser Show]

Agreed Ortiz was one of the offensive keys last season and probably the teams most consistent hitter. It has been that way for almost 10 seasons. They do need to plan for the post-Ortiz era. That means getting another big bat in here just in case he does decline precipitously. i think Beltran would be a fine stop gap and reinforcement for Ortiz.

 

Why another big bat?

 

C- Salty

1B- Gonzo

2B- Pedroia

SS- Scutaro

3B- Youkilis

LF- Crawford --> LF- Beltran/Cuddyer

CF- Ellsbury --> CF- Crawford

RF- Reddick

DH- Lavarnway

 

That lineup seems plenty potent to me. Even if we can unload Ellsbury for SP help, it's still one of the top lineups in the league.

[SoxSport]

I'm for pitching as the priority. So I should be for a trade like this. They can always add hitting if they need it. Top pitching is harder to get. Lincecum did not have a great year, but has a favorable contract --I think.

 

Ellsbury had his contract year. Superstar year. Can he do it again? Who knows. But I wonder if the Giants want to take on a guy who will be a FA of Boras next year? They might not want a contract that big.

[a700hitter]

Why another big bat?

 

C- Salty

1B- Gonzo

2B- Pedroia

SS- Scutaro

3B- Youkilis

LF- Crawford --> LF- Beltran/Cuddyer

CF- Ellsbury --> CF- Crawford

RF- Reddick

DH- Lavarnway

 

That lineup seems plenty potent to me. Even if we can unload Ellsbury for SP help, it's still one of the top lineups in the league.

Reddick, Lavarnway, Scutaro, and Salty as the bottom 4 in the lineup is not going to scare anyone. That puts a lot of pressure on the top 5. Ellsbury would have to continue where he left off. Youk would have to stay healthy, and Crawford would need to return to his Tampa days. If one or more of those things don't happen, the offensive performance couldbe very inconsistent. Even if the top 5 produce, the lineup would be considerably weaker with out a high performing Ortiz. When he was out of the lineup last season, the offense flat-lined except for 1 game. I have every reason to believe that pulling Ortiz out of the lineup without a potent replacement would weaken the lineup.

 

Assuming that Lavarnway can fill Ortiz shoes in 2012 is just not reasonable.

[SoxSport]

Agreed Ortiz was one of the offensive keys last season and probably the teams most consistent hitter. It has been that way for almost 10 seasons. They do need to plan for the post-Ortiz era. That means getting another big bat in here just in case he does decline precipitously. i think Beltran would be a fine stop gap and reinforcement for Ortiz.

 

Looks like they are letting Papi test the market--they could get him on the cheap if he has the same experience as Guerrero. Or maybe they just sell high and walk away, taking those two draft picks.

 

Papi and Berkman both had great comeback years. How did they do it? Well, they lost a few inches on their waistlines. Baseball Prospectus referred to Berkman last year as fat and out of shape. He looked pretty trim in the World Series. So did Papi this year.

 

Losing weight and conditioning does wonders for these guys over 30.

[Palodios]

Couple things you have to remember.

 

1. Last year, our RF hit .233/.299/.353/.652. Replacing our RF with a league-average player would actually be an upgrade over last year's performers.

 

2. Carl Crawford is not a .255/.289/.405 hitter. It is absolutely reasonable to count on him to be a bounce back player.

 

So you look at this OF, and you think - Can I replace my .233/.299/.353 RF and my .255/.289/.405 LF with Free Agents, and have similar or better production than last season?

 

I don't think it's even a question. Those are putrid numbers.

 

I'm not sure you realized before posting just how bad our RF was last year, because I'll be honest, I had no idea. I knew it was bad, but I was expecting at least a .245/.315/.380 kind of season.

 

 

And what if Crawford doesn't bounce back? And the outfielder you hold onto either gets hurt( Kalish) or hits to his 2011 AAA numbers (Reddick's .230 average)? And Youkilis has a season like the last two where he couldn't stay on the field? I am not suggesting that all of this happens, but there are far too many questionmarks and injury concerns.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And what if Crawford doesn't bounce back? And the outfielder you hold onto either gets hurt( Kalish) or hits to his 2011 AAA numbers (Reddick's .230 average)? And Youkilis has a season like the last two where he couldn't stay on the field? I am not suggesting that all of this happens' date=' but there are far too many questionmarks and injury concerns.[/quote']

 

To me, the probability of Crawford bouncing back is much, much higher than the probability of Ellsbury replicating this season. And if our RF hits to his AAA numbers, being .230, then we'll have the exact same RF as we had this year, no downgrade, no upgrade. We would absolutely need to go get another bat, someone like Beltran or Cuddyer, to fill in for the other corner OF spot, but other than that, I think the addition of an elite SP will far outweigh the offensive loss of Ellsbury.

 

As far as Youk is concerned, I'm ready to trade the guy or use him exclusively as a DH. I'm very much over him. I wish Middlebrooks had 1/2 of a season at AAA last year so he could break camp as the starting 3B.

[Palodios]

We would absolutely need to go get another bat' date=' someone like Beltran or Cuddyer, to fill in for the other corner OF spot.[/quote']

 

And this is where the problem is. Beltran introduces another health issue, and Cuddyer will be overvalued in the market. The Red Sox will be paying 10-12 million in order to lose production at two-- maybe three-- outfield positions, and pick up an ace. Why not just put that money directly into Buerhle or Wilson?

[Laser Show]

And this is where the problem is. Beltran introduces another health issue' date=' and Cuddyer will be overvalued in the market. The Red Sox will be paying 10-12 million in order to lose production at two-- maybe three-- outfield positions, and pick up an ace. Why not just put that money directly into Buerhle or Wilson?[/quote']

 

Lincecum is only 27. Buehrle is older and Wilson is 31 looking for a long contract. Lincecum is an ace, Buehrle strikes me as a #2 or 3 option. Wilson, I think, is going to be a risky acquisition for whoever gets him.

[Palodios]

Lincecum is only 27. Buehrle is older and Wilson is 31 looking for a long contract. Lincecum is an ace' date=' Buehrle strikes me as a #2 or 3 option. Wilson, I think, is going to be a risky acquisition for whoever gets him.[/quote']

 

You're missing the point. The Red Sox would be paying big money, and losing production at multiple positions in order to get one guy.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And this is where the problem is. Beltran introduces another health issue' date=' and Cuddyer will be overvalued in the market. The Red Sox will be paying 10-12 million in order to lose production at two-- maybe three-- outfield positions, and pick up an ace. Why not just put that money directly into Buerhle or Wilson?[/quote']

 

Getting Beltran would by no means be a loss of production in RF. That would be a massive improvement in production. If we put Kalish in LF, and he just matches his production he had in 2010 (.255/.305/.410), that will be, an increase in production from LF.

 

To me, it's not even a question as to whether or not Crawford bounces back, but if we're going to assume that Crawford doesn't bounce back, then we have to also assume that Ellsbury returns to his career norms of 10-12 HR, .300/.355/.455 production, and not the Ellsbury from last year.

 

So you basically gain production in RF, gain production in LF, and lose some production in CF. But you get Lincecum, a perennial Cy Young candidate that throws 210-230 innings per season rather than CJ Wilson (who I'm really not at all sold on), or Mark Buehrle.

 

You also have to remember, this team led the entire MLB in Runs and was a top 3 team in almost every offensive category.

 

The SP posted a 4.50 ERA (22nd in MLB). The offense scored 875 runs.

 

To show just how good our offense was, the #5 team in baseball scored 762 runs. So the Sox were 103 runs better than the #5 team. That's a huge disparity, and allows for some wiggle room in terms of trade chips.

[Laser Show]

Getting Beltran would by no means be a loss of production in RF. That would be a massive improvement in production. If we put Kalish in LF, and he just matches his production he had in 2010 (.255/.305/.410), that will be, an increase in production from LF.

 

To me, it's not even a question as to whether or not Crawford bounces back, but if we're going to assume that Crawford doesn't bounce back, then we have to also assume that Ellsbury returns to his career norms of 10-12 HR, .300/.355/.455 production, and not the Ellsbury from last year.

 

So you basically gain production in RF, gain production in LF, and lose some production in CF. But you get Lincecum, a perennial Cy Young candidate that throws 210-230 innings per season rather than CJ Wilson (who I'm really not at all sold on), or Mark Buehrle.

 

You also have to remember, this team led the entire MLB in Runs and was a top 3 team in almost every offensive category.

 

The SP posted a 4.50 ERA (22nd in MLB). The offense scored 875 runs.

 

To show just how good our offense was, the #5 team in baseball scored 762 runs. So the Sox were 103 runs better than the #5 team. That's a huge disparity, and allows for some wiggle room in terms of trade chips.

 

This is pretty much what I'm trying to say. You just say it so much more eloquently.

[Palodios]

Getting Beltran would by no means be a loss of production in RF. That would be a massive improvement in production. If we put Kalish in LF, and he just matches his production he had in 2010 (.255/.305/.410), that will be, an increase in production from LF.

 

In theory, you're absolutely correct. But the problem is having an entire outfield of questionmarks. Beltran is such a huge injury concern that having a very good fourth outfielder is crucial, and the Red Sox will absolutely need to address that with more money. Crawford will have to adjust to center field--a position he doesn't particularly like-- and the last time he made a big adjustment, he was one of the worst outfielders in baseball. Kalish has such a small sample size in the majors, and spent almost all of 2011 on the DL.

 

I'm all for trading Ellsbury for an ace. But you simply can't touch the rest of the outfield.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You're missing the point. The Red Sox would be paying big money' date=' and losing production at multiple positions in order to get one guy.[/quote']

 

But the production lost at those 3 positions does not exceed the production gained at the SP position.

 

2011 OF Combined Stats:

 

.272/.325/.445

 

2011 Beltran + Crawford + Reddick

 

.278/.335/.463

 

I extrapolated Reddick's stats and projected it over a 155 game season so that Beltran's numbers didn't weigh heavier than Reddicks.

 

Either way, we would actually see an improvement. The biggest improvement is because of Drew being gone, he killed us last year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In theory, you're absolutely correct. But the problem is having an entire outfield of questionmarks. Beltran is such a huge injury concern that having a very good fourth outfielder is crucial, and the Red Sox will absolutely need to address that with more money. Crawford will have to adjust to center field--a position he doesn't particularly like-- and the last time he made a big adjustment, he was one of the worst outfielders in baseball. Kalish has such a small sample size in the majors, and spent almost all of 2011 on the DL.

 

I'm all for trading Ellsbury for an ace. But you simply can't touch the rest of the outfield.

 

I just want to be clear. You are for trading Ellsbury, just as long as it doesn't require the addition of Kalish or Reddick because we will need them for OF depth?

 

I mean I'm ok with that, but I think we can probably find a 4th OF type player on the FA market for pretty cheap, and someone who can replicate the success that Kalish/Reddick would have coming off the bench. Even go with a guy like Andruw Jones or Conor Jackson. Cheap money, decent production, hits LHP well.

[Palodios]

I just want to be clear. You are for trading Ellsbury, just as long as it doesn't require the addition of Kalish or Reddick because we will need them for OF depth?

 

Yes, this is what I am saying. I think that both of those players are better than your average 4th outfielder. Between the two of them, both will provide exceptional defense, and one will provide quality at bats... I just think it is too soon to tell which one to trade.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yes' date=' this is what I am saying. I think that both of those players are better than your average 4th outfielder. Between the two of them, both will provide exceptional defense, and one will provide quality at bats... I just think it is too soon to tell which one to trade.[/quote']

 

That's fair. I don't have a problem with that, but at the same time, if that's the only thing holding up a trade for Tim Lincecum, would you kill the deal over it, or would you pull the trigger?

 

If I had to add someone, I'd add Reddick. I think Kalish has much higher potential. Bill James predicted him to be a 20/20 guy this season in the MLB level (before we signed Crawford), and I don't think that was an outrageous prediction at all.

 

He's got an absolute cannon too, and would be a hell of a CF or RF. Gotta remember, he was only 22 years old when he played with the Sox in 2010, and even then, his OBP was 55 points higher than his Avg. Add some plate discipline, and he could turn into an outstanding player.

[Palodios]

That's fair. I don't have a problem with that' date=' but at the same time, if that's the only thing holding up a trade for Tim Lincecum, would you kill the deal over it, or would you pull the trigger?[/quote']

 

I'd absolutely kill it. What if they asked for Kalish? Lincecum is good, but do you really think he's worth two 20/20 players?

[User Name]

I wouldn't do it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'd absolutely kill it. What if they asked for Kalish? Lincecum is good' date=' but do you really think he's worth two 20/20 players?[/quote']

 

I think for a team that doesn't have the offensive firepower that the Sox have, no he may not be worth a 20/20 player.

 

But for a team like the Red Sox, who have an elite, top of the league offense, but horrendous pitching, he is absolutely worth it. It's very subjective.

 

If we rolled out in 2012 with a rotation of Lincecum - Lester - Buchholz - Beckett - Aceves/Bard, got Beltran to play RF, stuck Kalish in CF, and Crawford in LF, I think we'd have a ridiculous team.

 

Basically, I'd give up Ellsbury + Reddick, not Ellsbury + Kalish.

[Laser Show]

I wouldn't do it.

 

Care to explain why? You make very good points on most subjects, and I'd rather like to hear about this one.

[Palodios]

Oh, apparently Lincecum made 13 million in 2011. The costs may turn out to be prohibitive, not to mention the nightmare of trying to re-sign him longterm.

[User Name]

I worry about Lincecum's body holding up, for one. I learned with Pedro Martinez that scouts usually know what they're talking about when they say that a guy's body may not hold up for the long term, and with Lincecum's velocity dipping for three straight years (though it picked up a mile this year) you wonder if that strange motion isn't going to screw his elbow up eventually. And trading for him would make no sense if you aren't going to extend him, and he'll require lots of years and lots of money.

 

The other issue is that you're paying a premium in players for a guy who may not be as effective in the AL East. The NL West is very forgiving.

 

All in all, i'd keep my offense intact and go for a Buehrle/Jackson type while focusing on the bullpen, which is a problem yet again, and get a pitching coach that forces those idiots to stay in shape.

[SoxFanForsyth]

From 2008 - 2011, Lincecum's ERA+ is at 144. That's park and league adjusted.

 

To put that into perspective, in that same span, Lester's ERA+ is 135, topping out at 144 in 2008. Buchholz is 119 from 08-11.

 

Halladay, from 2008-2011, had an ERA+ of 160, which is probably about the best you're going to see from a SP.

[User Name]

Park-adjusted ERA is not perfect. It uses ballpark factors which are usually affected by division and team offense, it also averages the "mid-point", which undermines the nature of the AL East. It's not a perfect tool to evaluate how a pitcher would fare changing from the NL West to the AL East.

 

I'm not saying he wouldn't be effective, but there's the realistic chance that he may not be the best pitcher on the staff if he moved to the AL East, while costing elite talent and making huge money.

[jung]

I am very much in favor of the Sox making an effort to understand what they could get for Ellsbury given the slim to none chance that he would remain a member of the Sox past his current contact obligations.

 

I posted my concerns about Lincecum a few weeks ago and they have not changed. I actually think he exerts more torque on his arm than Pedro did. His innings are still above 200 per but are coming down along with his SO's

 

If I had my preference I guess I would probably prefer multiple players for Ells if I was in fact going to trade him. If he were going to be traded for one star pitcher I would guess I would want someone I was a little less concerned with than Lincecum as far as injury potential. Ells is the one no holds bared, genuine attraction we have to offer as an everyday player and I would want to get the absolute most I could get for trading him.

 

I guess I would say that if the deal were Ells for Lincecum straight up then I would prefer a pitcher I was less worried about than Lincecum and would be willing to add somebody to Ells to get a star pitcher with less question marks due to potential for injury and changing from NL West to AL East. So as much as I like Linececum and as much as I want the Sox to seriously explore trade options for Ells I don't think I would do this deal.

 

Given the limited options the Sox have right now and the value that Ells represents in that regard I either want multiple players for Ells, including at least one guy that is a solid addition somewhere in the rotation and with each of them making some sense...no throw ins,

or

I am willing to toss in somebody good with Ells to get a star SP with no question marks.

[SoxSport]

And what if Crawford doesn't bounce back? And the outfielder you hold onto either gets hurt( Kalish) or hits to his 2011 AAA numbers (Reddick's .230 average)? And Youkilis has a season like the last two where he couldn't stay on the field? I am not suggesting that all of this happens' date=' but there are far too many questionmarks and injury concerns.[/quote']

 

The law of averages says the ball is should bounce better for the Sox next year. There are always injury concerns. But athletes do rebound. Look at Ellsbury.

[Palodios]

The law of averages says the ball is should bounce better for the Sox next year. There are always injury concerns. But athletes do rebound. Look at Ellsbury.

 

I am more apt to trust the law of Murphey to the law of averages.

[jung]

One thing we might not be taking into account is the degree to which the Sox made their own bed with regard to pitching in 2011. That is not to say that we should not be focused on pitching because pitching wins pennants and WS...no question.

 

On the other hand you cannot "plan" for the destruction of your pitching staff. You can't have 12 starters lined up in the bullpen so that you can plug the next one in as they go down. The shame of it is that we don't have anybody down on the farm less than a couple years away from being able to pitch. That used to be part of the answer to the way teams prepared for injuries to their front line pitchers. All I am saying here is that this is another facet of the corner that the Sox have boxed themselves into.

 

I guess we have to acknowledge that part of Lackey's problem in both 2010 and 2011 was physical but we never should have brought Lackey here to begin with. The Buckholtz injury does not look like it is going to be out of character bad. Dice went down in the more traditional sense of a pitcher just plan going down for the season. However in reality where we really suffered was nobody, not Beckett, not Lester, not Wake, not Lackey not Miller not anybody we had left could get out of the 6th inning. It got to the point where I was feeling fortunate if they could get out of the 5th. For the guys at the back of your rotation to have problems getting out of the 5th inning is one thing. When you don't have anybody that can get past the 5th and 6th innings, you are a mess.

 

So, we stripped ourselves of SP that could make their way up to the big club. We brought Lackey here, a move that never should have been made in the first place. I for one never liked the idea of bringing Dice here although all things being equal he has not been terrible. While I agree that to some extent these guys have to take care of themselves, we clearly did not create an environment that would have promoted good conditioning. Wow...our starting pitching sucks...no s*** Sherlock. I would hope it is one thing that might make conditioning for 2012 an even more important element.

 

As to what this FO finally does or does not do, that remains to be seen but I will continue to be concerned until I see some visible signs that JH and LL have come to their senses not with regard to revenues which have been fine but with regard to the product they put on the field.

[seabeachfred]

I like some of you who play up Ryan Kalish over Josh Reddick. To me Ryan is clearly the better player. He has more power, more speed, and much better plate discipline. He is also a very hard nosed player. It's too bad he suffered such a downer this year with his injuries but if anyone can come back strong it is him. On the other board I post on, they almost got tired of hearing me play this young guy up two years ago but I loved what I saw in him. If we do trade Ellsbury and I wish to God we could keep him for the rest of his career, it has to be for a top quality pitcher, in other words, an ace or near ace. Is it really a certainty that he will not resign with the Red Sox after 2013? If the answer is yes, then we have to look into the possibility to move him, but not for a No. 3 or 4 starter. It must be for a No. 1 or 2, and at the same time move Ryan to center and get a RH hitter to play right field.