2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[RedSoxNC84]

Rockies To Sign Jamie Moyer

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 18, 2012 at 6:15pm CST]

The Rockies have agreed to sign 49-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer to a minor league deal, the team announced. Troy Renck of the Denver Post reported Monday that the Rockies had offered the veteran a contract. The Rockies will give Moyer the chance to compete for a rotation spot while tutoring younger pitchers on the staff, assuming he passes an upcoming physical.

 

Moyer pitched for the Phillies in 2010 and missed last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He worked out in front of scouts this offseason and appears to have impressed the Rockies.

 

Moyer owns a 267-204 career record with a 4.24 ERA in 24 MLB seasons. He posted a 4.84 ERA with 5.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 44.1% ground ball rate for the 2010 Phillies. 14 of the players on Colorado's 40-man roster were not yet born when Moyer debuted with the Cubs in June of 1986.

 

I'm surprised Cherington didn't sign this guy for depth.

[Palodios]

Gonzalez - 22

Crawford - 20.285

Beckett - 17

Lackey - 16.5

Youkilis - 10.313

Ortiz* - 16.5

Matsuzaka - 8.667

Ellsbury - 8.05

Buchholz - 7.486

Pedroia - 6.75

Lester - 6

Jenks - 6

Bailey* - 4.7

Saltalamacchia - 2.5

Iglesias - 2.063

Sweeney - 1.75

Bard - 1.625

Aceves* - 1.6

Punto - 1.5

Shoppach - 1.35

Aviles - 1.2

Tazawa - 1.1

Albers - 1.075

Miller - 1.04

Morales - 0.85

 

The 15 remaining roster spots x league minimum of .480 = 7.2

 

Player benefits = 11

 

I put an asterisk next to our remaining arbitration eligible players who have not agreed to a deal. Using the salaries they're asking for, we would be at $186.104 million. Even if Ortiz, Bailey and Aceves go to arbitration and lose that would put us at $180.254 million, more than $2 million over the luxury tax threshold.

 

That leaves us with two scenarios here:

 

A. Even after dumping Scutaro's salary, we will have no more money to spend.

 

B. The owners are not in fact cheap and are willing to go over the luxury tax by $10-16 million to sign Oswalt.

 

This appears to be the most accurate luxury tax post I've seen so far (and I've seen a ton). Its a shame you went haywire already-- we can always use good posts like this. That being said-- the Red Sox were over the luxury cap by about 10 million last year, so I get the feeling that they don't mind being about that high over again this year.

[BSN07]

This appears to be the most accurate luxury tax post I've seen so far (and I've seen a ton). Its a shame you went haywire already-- we can always use good posts like this. That being said-- the Red Sox were over the luxury cap by about 10 million last year' date=' so I get the feeling that they don't mind being about that high over again this year.[/quote']

 

Yes that's a good run down. Although I think Ortiz is more likely to get the 12.65M then 16.5M. 12.65M will already be setting the mark for hitting only DH's. I think Ortiz screwed himself by asking that much. If this is the case that saves them about 4M which I believe would put them under the LT threshold to start the season, which is what I think they are going for.

[Palodios]

Yes that's a good run down. Although I think Ortiz is more likely to get the 12.65M then 16.5M. 12.65M will already be setting the mark for hitting only DH's. I think Ortiz screwed himself by asking that much. If this is the case that saves them about 4M which I believe would put them under the LT threshold to start the season' date=' which is what I think they are going for.[/quote']

 

Well, he did use worst-case-scenario figures for the arbitration cases. I agree with you on Ortiz, asking for a 30% seemed ridiculous at the time-- especially with the future of DHs very much uncertain for 2013 with the Houston re-alignment.

 

There is no way they stay under the cap though. Ben has implied that the Scutaro move was intended to free up space for a pitcher, and unless they go for Floyd who is a 5.5 million luxury cap hit and continue to be creative, I see no way to get a quality arm without nudging the cap.

[User Name]

The player benefits are too high, and iirc the Lackey option has been exercised (i could be wrong) if Ortiz loses his arb case, that would leave the Sox much further under the luxury tax than he predicts.

[Palodios]

The player benefits are too high' date=' and iirc the Lackey option has been exercised (i could be wrong) if Ortiz loses his arb case, that would leave the Sox much further under the luxury tax than he predicts.[/quote']

 

I have seen mixed reports on this, but I think the most important thing to note is the following quote from Ben Cherrington:

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7148697/boston-red-sox-john-lackey-tommy-john-surgery

 

"It's based on days missed, it's not based on a specific surgery," Cherington said. "We'll see what happens next year."

 

There are a lot of technicalities involved here. Based on the Ben's comments, the option definitely is not immediately exercised with the surgery.

 

There many questions to this that we may not have resolved. If the option is exercised halfway through 2013, will it lower the luxury tax value of the contract? If a player signs a contract extension once the year starts, it does not count towards luxury tax-- does it count the same way with exercised option years?

 

The other question is: Will the Red Sox be able to handle the 13 million dollars added on top of Luxury tax in 2015 because they exercised this option? He'll be making .5 million, but he'll hit the tax at 13 million-- will they be able to hand him off to a low salary team and get rid of the luxury tax hit?

[Meh]

Players 2012

Carl Crawford $20,285,714

Jacoby Ellsbury $8,050,000

Ryan Sweeney $1,750,000

Darnell McDonald $480,000

Ryan Kalish $0

Che-Hsuan Lin $0

Kevin Youkilis $10,281,250

Will Middlebrooks $0

Clayton Mortenson $0

Nick Punto $1,500,000

Mike Aviles $1,200,000

Jose Iglesias $2,062,500

Oscar Tejeda $0

Dustin Pedroia $6,750,000

Adrian Gonzalez $22,000,000

Lars Anderson $0

David Ortiz $14,575,000

Jarrod Saltalamacchia $2,500,000

Kelly Shoppach $1,350,000

Ryan Lavarnway $0

Luis Exposito $0

Jon Lester $6,000,000

Clay Buchholz $7,486,250

Josh Beckett $17,000,000

Starting Pitcher #4

Daniel Bard $1,612,500

Andrew Miller $1,040,000

Felix Doubront $480,000

Junichi Tazawa $0

Stolmy Pimentel $0

Drake Britton $0

Scott Atchison $0

Michael Bowden $480,000

Matt Albers $1,075,000

Frank Morales $850,000

Alfredo Aceves $1,275,000

Mark Melancon $480,000

Andrew Bailey $4,025,000

Bobby Jenks (+) $6,000,000

John Lackey (+) $16,500,000

Daisuke Matsuzaka (+) $8,666,667

Benefits: (Med/Minors) $10,500,000

Total $176,254,881

Luxury Tax Threshold $178,000,000

Payroll Flexibility $1,745,119

 

Got this from SP http://redsoxprospects57174.yuku.com/sreply/295390/The-2012-Luxury-Tax-Threshold-Red-Sox-Offseason

[Palodios]

Players 2012

Carl Crawford $20,285,714

Jacoby Ellsbury $8,050,000

Ryan Sweeney $1,750,000

Darnell McDonald $480,000

Ryan Kalish $0

Che-Hsuan Lin $0

Kevin Youkilis $10,281,250

Will Middlebrooks $0

Clayton Mortenson $0

Nick Punto $1,500,000

Mike Aviles $1,200,000

Jose Iglesias $2,062,500

Oscar Tejeda $0

Dustin Pedroia $6,750,000

Adrian Gonzalez $22,000,000

Lars Anderson $0

David Ortiz $14,575,000

Jarrod Saltalamacchia $2,500,000

Kelly Shoppach $1,350,000

Ryan Lavarnway $0

Luis Exposito $0

Jon Lester $6,000,000

Clay Buchholz $7,486,250

Josh Beckett $17,000,000

Starting Pitcher #4

Daniel Bard $1,612,500

Andrew Miller $1,040,000

Felix Doubront $480,000

Junichi Tazawa $0

Stolmy Pimentel $0

Drake Britton $0

Scott Atchison $0

Michael Bowden $480,000

Matt Albers $1,075,000

Frank Morales $850,000

Alfredo Aceves $1,275,000

Mark Melancon $480,000

Andrew Bailey $4,025,000

Bobby Jenks (+) $6,000,000

John Lackey (+) $16,500,000

Daisuke Matsuzaka (+) $8,666,667

Benefits: (Med/Minors) $10,500,000

Total $176,254,881

Luxury Tax Threshold $178,000,000

Payroll Flexibility $1,745,119

 

Got this from SP http://redsoxprospects57174.yuku.com/sreply/295390/The-2012-Luxury-Tax-Threshold-Red-Sox-Offseason

 

I double-checked this with the list Rivernator posted, and they are almost identical, with a few very small differences that may be due to all-star awards (Youkilis was off by 50,000). It took us a while to get a definitive list, but I think these must be very close.

[jung]

At least 2015 is the other side of a number of the Sox contracts expiring and 2015 if finally a year after the tax threshold goes up. I wish we really knew how the heck the Lackey thing gets handled and when the "benefit" of exercising does accrue to the Sox.

 

Lackey is going to miss all of 2012 isn't he? So at some point in 2012, when that becomes obvious, can they exercise and take the benefit against the 2012 totals?

[iortiz]

That leaves us with two scenarios here:

 

A. Even after dumping Scutaro's salary, we will have no more money to spend.

 

B. The owners are not in fact cheap and are willing to go over the luxury tax by $10-16 million to sign Oswalt.

 

Pfff....These were not the scenarios I was expecting.

 

1.- If scenario #1 is true and we are already over the cap (Lets say Ortiz @ 12 M), Ortiz strategy is a complete failure. We would have lost our SS and wouldn't have filled our holes in our rotation. If true I'll be very pissed off.

2.- If scenario 2 was true, Why did we give up Scutaro?

[jung]

Iortiz,

 

 

While it is a questioning post it is a logical post. I suspect that the Sox are figuring they are either just to the right side of the tax threshold with Scuts gone and/or know how much of a benefit they will get against the 2012 cap for the Lackey option and when they can take the Lackey benefit for exercising his option.

 

By the way, while I guess expecting a player especially in MBL to take a bit of a hit for the team (although it is done all the time in the NFL) is there any question at this point how much Ortiz could have helped this team if he made an Arbitration submission at around $14M instead of $16M?

 

Now it is going to be all or nothing. To be honest I hope he gets his ass kicked in the Arb hearing and has to take $12M.

[Station 13]

At least 2015 is the other side of a number of the Sox contracts expiring and 2015 if finally a year after the tax threshold goes up. I wish we really knew how the heck the Lackey thing gets handled and when the "benefit" of exercising does accrue to the Sox.

 

Lackey is going to miss all of 2012 isn't he? So at some point in 2012, when that becomes obvious, can they exercise and take the benefit against the 2012 totals?

 

Yes. Totals are added at the end of the year for the taxing.

[iortiz]

Iortiz,

 

 

While it is a questioning post it is a logical post. I suspect that the Sox are figuring they are either just to the right side of the tax threshold with Scuts gone and/or know how much of a benefit they will get against the 2012 cap for the Lackey option and when they can take the Lackey benefit for exercising his option.

 

By the way, while I guess expecting a player especially in MBL to take a bit of a hit for the team (although it is done all the time in the NFL) is there any question at this point how much Ortiz could have helped this team if he made an Arbitration submission at around $14M instead of $16M?

 

Now it is going to be all or nothing. To be honest I hope he gets his ass kicked in the Arb hearing and has to take $12M.

 

The only scenario where I would clap Ben at this point is:

 

We stay under the cap and with Oswalt (or similar) in our rotation.

 

They had the opportunity to let Ortiz walk (Let Lav take the DH) and use that money to sign the SP, and who knows... probably a couple of solid arms too or keep Wheeler. We'll see how this ends.

[jung]

Believe me iortiz I am not excusing the Sox for the initial mistake of offering Ortiz Arbitration. My only point in that part of the post was to suggest that the Sox did Ortiz the biggest favor of his life and he could have done them a world of good not taking the fullest advantage of it.

 

Taking a bit of a break on your income is done all the time in the NFL, a team sport where virtually any play can be your last. However not trying to take your team to the cleaners for every dime you can in MLB, never happened.

[Elktonnick]

I must believe that Ben wouldn'thave made the Scuturo deal without having the Oswalt deal or some other alternative very close to done. Ben is too deliberate to make such a move without a backup plan. But until it is done many including me are keeping our fingers crossed.

[seabeachfred]

I double-checked this with the list Rivernator posted' date=' and they are almost identical, with a few very small differences that may be due to all-star awards (Youkilis was off by 50,000). It took us a while to get a definitive list, but I think these must be very close.[/quote']

 

If all we have in payroll flexibility is $1.75 million, unless we pare some more off the board we won't have enough for Oswalt----or am I missing something? Many were led to believe that Scutaro's trade was to clear up some money to sign Roy. Either that or, one, it was a salary dump without any thought to getting that pitcher we need, or, two, we just might over the LT threshold. I wonder which is it?

[iortiz]

Believe me iortiz I am not excusing the Sox for the initial mistake of offering Ortiz Arbitration. My only point in that part of the post was to suggest that the Sox did Ortiz the biggest favor of his life and he could have done them a world of good not taking the fullest advantage of it.

 

Taking a bit of a break on your income is done all the time in the NFL, a team sport where virtually any play can be your last. However not trying to take your team to the cleaners for every dime you can in MLB, never happened.

 

Got you jung.

 

Hell, The scenario that I was thinking was: We needed room in our payroll (4-6 M or something) in order to bring the SP and keep us under the cap. Hopefully I'm right this time.

[seabeachfred]

I must believe that Ben wouldn'thave made the Scuturo deal without having the Oswalt deal or some other alternative very close to done. Ben is too deliberate to make such a move without a backup plan. But until it is done many including me are keeping our fingers crossed.

 

We better do exactly that. If that trade was made without getting a good starting pitcher back with the money we saved there is no excuse for anyone defending Cherington. He will have earned the title Benny the Boob.

[iortiz]

I must believe that Ben wouldn'thave made the Scuturo deal without having the Oswalt deal or some other alternative very close to done. Ben is too deliberate to make such a move without a backup plan. But until it is done many including me are keeping our fingers crossed.

 

This.

[Spitball]

If all we have in payroll flexibility is $1.75 million' date=' unless we pare some more off the board we won't have enough for Oswalt----or am I missing something? Many were led to believe that Scutaro's trade was to clear up some money to sign Roy. Either that or, one, it was a salary dump without any thought to getting that pitcher we need, or, two, we just might over the LT threshold. I wonder which is it?[/quote']

 

I don't understand why Scutaro and his money have to be traded before the pitching/depth is acquired.

[Elktonnick]

I don't understand why Scutaro and his money have to be traded before the pitching/depth is acquired.

 

Good point. I'd love to hear an explanation from the FO

[iortiz]

I don't understand why Scutaro and his money have to be traded before the pitching/depth is acquired.

 

Out There are 4 possibilities:

 

1.- As Elk said, they have a pre-agreement with Oswalt (or similar) and stay under the cap :thumbsup:

2.- Make room to sign Ortiz and stay under the cap :thumbdown

3.- We are already over the cap and we go like this. :thumbdown

4.- They are already over the cap and sign Oswalt. :thumbdown

 

Points 3,4 consider that Ortiz is already signed beyond the amount of the contract.

[jung]

I obviously do not know but I think that BC is planning on how much he will benefit from the Lackey option and combining that with a reasonable number of Arbitration wins or favorable negotiations that either gets him enough for Oswalt or Floyd.

 

I still believe that the Sox have been trying to coax Oswalt below the $8M that he has been apparently peddling and if that fails, Floyd becomes the fallback.

 

It seems to me that the Sox are literally scraping money together to get the player they want and keep to what appears more and more to be a mandate from ownership to stay under the cap this year.

 

Guys like iortiz and myself have said the same thing consistently week after week. This is the only way to make any sense of what the Sox are doing.

 

I have to give BC credit for one thing. He seems to be following a mandate handed to him by his owner and other than the Ortiz blunder is making the best of it. That said it takes about 10 player moves to make up for the damage from the Ortiz blunder.

 

What hurts about Ortiz asking for $16M is that you have to think he and his agents think that was the right thing to do. Hence I would put the chance that he negotiates to a number like $13M at 0%. Maybe he takes $14M in negotiation. That is still way better for the Sox than $16M. However $12M would still make Ortiz a ton of money and put the Sox either in position with an outside shot of dealing realistically with Oswalt or at least getting a decent arm.

 

In the end this might be good for us and them. So much for the heady days of blowing off $147M for the Crawfords of the world. We are right down in the dirt now folks. Begging Ortiz to take a reasonable number and begging Oswalt to take even less than the $8M he says he will take now.

 

Time for a reality check. Presuming Oswalt will take $8M, if the Sox were offering $8M this late in the game, you don't think he would be signing as we speak?

[a700hitter]

Red Sox Keeping Tabs On Wandy Rodriguez

By Steve Adams [January 22 at 2:00pm CST]

 

Carlos Lee's name has been the one most frequently mentioned in Astros trade rumors recently, but Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports cautions not to forget about Wandy Rodriguez. Morosi adds that the Red Sox have been keeping tabs on the Houston lefty (Twitter links).

 

Boston would prefer to sign a free agent, according to Morosi, and have been linked to Roy Oswalt. The Red Sox traded Marco Scutaro to the Rockies yesterday, which freed up $6MM in payroll. That type of money is almost enough to accommodate Oswalt's one-year asking price, but not to accommodate Rodriguez's $10MM salary. He's also guaranteed a $13MM salary in 2013.

 

Rodriguez, 33, has a 3.36 ERA over the last three seasons in 591 2/3 innings with an 8.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and a 46% groundball rate. His K/9 has declined for three straight seasons however, while his BB/9 has increased each of those years. There's also the issue of Rodriguez's 2014 option; the Astros currently hold a $13MM club option on Rodriguez, but that becomes a player option if he's traded.

Now, I am getting confused. Are they settled on Oswalt or not?

[iortiz]

Now' date=' I am getting confused. Are they settled on Oswalt or not?[/quote']

 

This is getting very confusing.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No way they take Wandy over Oswalt. I think this is just them keeping tabs in a worst-case scenario where Oswalt and the Sox can't agree to terms.

[Palodios]

This is getting very confusing.

 

They're either waiting to resolve the Ortiz situation first, or they're posturing for either Oswalt or Floyd. They will get a starting pitcher soon, I'm feeling certain of it now.

[iortiz]

Beyond the money I prefer Wandy over Oswalt these days.

[iortiz]

They're either waiting to resolve the Ortiz situation first' date=' or they're posturing for either Oswalt or Floyd. They will get a starting pitcher soon, I'm feeling certain of it now.[/quote']

 

if true... Under or over the cap?... That my friend, will be the key question...

[jung]

No I don't think they are settled on Oswalt. I still think the same. They want Oswalt but for less than the $8M that has been publicized.