2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Then you must figure that teams would want to get market value for their players. Guys who can play elite defense up the middle, go for 20/20, are in their 20s and in a down season can still OPS over .750 are worth something. Actually, worth a lot. If you think you're getting him without giving up a big league ready OFers, a big league ready pitcher and a high end prospect, you're crazy.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Then you must figure that teams would want to get market value for their players. Guys who can play elite defense up the middle' date=' go for 20/20, are in their 20s and [b']in a down season can still OPS over .750[/b] are worth something. Actually, worth a lot. If you think you're getting him without giving up a big league ready OFers, a big league ready pitcher and a high end prospect, you're crazy.

 

So what, exactly, is your definition of a "down season". His average was low, but his OPS was consistent with career norms (.751 OPS in 2011, .756 career OPS). That's not a "down season", it's a normal season. Even if you exclude his 1st season when he was 22, and you exclude last season (so that it doesn't manipulate the data), his OPS from 07-10 was .759.

 

How exactly was that a down season? And you make it sound like, in a regular or good season, he will be a .850 - .900 OPS guy. He's never OPS'd .795. The range from his career average OPS to his career high OPS is .037 points.

 

Stop making it sound like he's some perennial .930 OPS guy who had a down year because of injury and still OPS'd "over .750" (meaning .751).

 

Be real man. His OPS of .751 was consistent with his career norms, even if you take out his .693 OPS when he was 22.

[User Name]

They are, however, not going to just "dump him" for the sake of saving money, which is what Spitball doesn't seem to understand.

 

You dump guys who you have no use for or are blocking a position. Young does neither. If they deal him, they will deal him to improve their ballclub in areas they deem necessary. They are dealing from a position of strength.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They are, however, not going to just "dump him" for the sake of saving money, which is what Spitball doesn't seem to understand.

 

You dump guys who you have no use for or are blocking a position. Young does neither. If they deal him, they will deal him to improve their ballclub in areas they deem necessary. They are dealing from a position of strength.

 

I'm not arguing that. I'm just arguing that Jackso continously implies that Chris Young is Justin Upton 2.0, and that he's going to cost Kalish + Buchholz + Middlebrooks to acquire. It's just ridiculous.

 

I do think that a package of Doubront/Wilson + Coyle + Josh Fields would get it done.

[User Name]

I'm not arguing that. I'm just arguing that Jackso continously implies that Chris Young is Justin Upton 2.0, and that he's going to cost Kalish + Buchholz + Middlebrooks to acquire. It's just ridiculous.

 

I do think that a package of Doubront/Wilson + Coyle + Josh Fields would get it done.

 

The answer lies in the middle, Padawan. He won't cost a fortune, but he's not just a salary dump either. Your package seems very good.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The answer lies in the middle' date=' Padawan. He won't cost a fortune, but he's not just a salary dump either. [b']Your package seems very good.[/b]

 

http://gifsoup.com/imager.php?id=1203864&t=o GIFSoup

 

THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!!!!

[User Name]

That's what they always say when i'm around.

[Palodios]

We're one webcam picture of your package away from calling you Dipre

[FredLynn]

He was 21 playing against advanced 24 year olds!! Dude. Give him a couple years to adjust! Jesus Montero is widely thought to be an elite power bat, and he OPS'd .814 in AAA this year. He is 21 as well, but he is in his 4th year in the minor leagues.

 

You have to give Iglesias a couple years to learn pitch recognition man. You don't just automatically come out of Cuba with pitch recognition skills on advanced pitchers.

 

I'll give him all the time in the world. I have seen him up there at the plate. He has zero power; he doesn't look good. Until he does its wrong to name him our next SS. Scutaro is probably gone after this year. We are going to need someone in 2013 because Iggy isn't going to be ready by then..IMO. I think he is the Michael Bowden of position players in our minor league system....right next to Lars Anderson.

[FredLynn]

They would be over 40 million under the cap for 2013 in my scenario. That's enough for something' date=' isn't it?[/quote']

 

How much of that do we use to sign Ellsbury?

Yeah, that sounds good, being that far under the cap, as long as the money is used on elite SP. Of course, I would rather be that far under the cap with the flexibility of being able to go a little over the cap next year if we needed to.

[User Name]

We're one webcam picture of your package away from calling you Dipre

 

What is it with Talksox posters and that dude's cock? Jesus. Freaks me the f*** out.

[FredLynn]

Damn...deleting a post here is impossible

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not arguing that. I'm just arguing that Jackso continously implies that Chris Young is Justin Upton 2.0, and that he's going to cost Kalish + Buchholz + Middlebrooks to acquire. It's just ridiculous.

 

I do think that a package of Doubront/Wilson + Coyle + Josh Fields would get it done.

 

And I am arguing that the DBacks are a contender and arent going to trade an important part of their team for a bunch of prospects

[Palodios]

What is it with Talksox posters and that dude's cock? Jesus. Freaks me the f*** out.

 

Sorry, I was making a joke off of what 700 said. I have not seen said-pictures.

[jung]

Boy I think Aceves would be doing remarkably well to stay under 4.00 as a starter considering he would have to expect to go through the lineup at least twice and hopefully at least three times every time out. Guys with ERA's below 4.00 but above 3.00 in the AL East are not exactly what I would call bums.

 

If he gave us 150+ innings at somewhere in the 3.70 range I would consider that a very successful season for him starting.

[jacksonianmarch]

That would be highly successful for anyone. I am telling you this as a guy who followed Aceves from the day he was signed, he is not going to be a good starter. Keep him as is. If he is a starter, you're looking at a 4.5 or higher ERA

[Palodios]

Considering that Aceves plays the role of a 7th AND 8th inning pitcher, maybe you're right. Having double the innings of an average reliever is kind of unreal.

[User Name]

Per MLBTR:

 

The Red Sox haven't ruled out signing Roy Oswalt, tweets Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, although sources say the right-hander is not a priority for them. Earlier today we heard that interest in Oswalt has spiked significantly since he's been telling teams he's willing to sign for a one-year deal.

 

It seemed inevitable that Yankees would re-sign Andruw Jones earlier this offseason, but Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports the camps have not made much progress and that the outfielder is garnering interest from other teams, including the Red Sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

Considering that Aceves plays the role of a 7th AND 8th inning pitcher' date=' maybe you're right. Having double the innings of an average reliever is kind of unreal.[/quote']

 

He's a guy who can dominate a lineup the first time through. He's fine for 2-3IP at a clip. It's the second time through that he's gonna get hurt.

[Bellhorn04]

He's a guy who can dominate a lineup the first time through. He's fine for 2-3IP at a clip. It's the second time through that he's gonna get hurt.

 

I don't know if there's really enough data to be sure about that. He's only had 9 career starts.

 

OPS against by pitch count:

 

1-25 .610

26-50 .639

51-75 .806

76-100 .453

 

He had some very good outings of more than 3 innings in 2011.

[jacksonianmarch]

Just to show you guys how ridiculous the Chris Young talks on here were....

 

MLBTR is reporting that the Orioles turned down an offer from the Braves for Adam Jones. That offer was Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a prospect. Let's compare

 

Adam Jones has a career OPS of .756. Chris Young has a career OPS of .756. Chris Young is 28, Jones is 26. Chris Young had a UZR/150 of 12.9. Adam Jones had a UZR/150 of -8.5. Chris Young had a WAR of 4.6. Adam Jones had a WAR of 2.9. So effectively, the Orioles were offered a top flight SP, a 28 yr old superutility guy coming off a bad season but with 3 previous .300+BA seasons and a prospect for Jones. Jurrjens would have been the Orioles ace and Prado their starting SS. And they would have gotten a prospect. And the O's said no. This is a reality check for those of you who disagreed with me and thought you could get a solid, young CFer for a bunch of B level prospects and a future 4th OFer in Reddick

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's a guy who can dominate a lineup the first time through. He's fine for 2-3IP at a clip. It's the second time through that he's gonna get hurt.

 

Last year, when Aceves faced a hitter for the 2nd time, they hit .259/.366/.376/.743. This data is manipulated by the game against SD when he lost all control and walked 5 hitters in the 2nd inning (3 walks were issued to hitters in their 2nd PA vs Aceves). I know you can't just remove that game, but outside of those 3 walks (remember, he averaged 3.3 BB/9), his numbers the 2nd time through were .259/.337/.376/.713. I'll take that all day.

 

When Aceves faced a hitter for the 3rd time in a game, (only 28 total AB ), they hit .190/.286/.238/.524.

 

Just to put this into perspective, last year hitters OPS'd .728 vs Sabathia in their 2nd time through the lineup.

 

So, by your logic, CC should be a reliever because he gets hurt the 2nd time through the lineup.

 

It's pretty easy to look these stats up man. So maybe check before you just spew ********.

[SoxSport]

Chris Young doesn't strike me as a guy the FO would be interested in. But then CC didn't look that way, either. The hotter rumor would be Andruw Jones--who can hit LHP and play RF. Also some insurance protection for Ortiz. The Yankees probably have first dibs on him, but they have to get DH at bats for Montero.

 

Pitching-wise, the safer bet for them is to add a starter. With Bard and Melancon, they are in better shape closing than starting. Bard is a bigger questionmark as a starter.Oswalt will want >$10 mil for one year, and that's pricey for a guy in decline. Gio might be worth blowing the farm system for, since he's protected. Edwin Jackson should be considered. Or perhaps a trade for another #4 starter. I mean somebody decent--not the crap they threw out there last year to replace Buchholz.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just to show you guys how ridiculous the Chris Young talks on here were....

 

MLBTR is reporting that the Orioles turned down an offer from the Braves for Adam Jones. That offer was Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a prospect. Let's compare

 

Adam Jones has a career OPS of .756. Chris Young has a career OPS of .756. Chris Young is 28, Jones is 26. Chris Young had a UZR/150 of 12.9. Adam Jones had a UZR/150 of -8.5. Chris Young had a WAR of 4.6. Adam Jones had a WAR of 2.9. So effectively, the Orioles were offered a top flight SP, a 28 yr old superutility guy coming off a bad season but with 3 previous .300+BA seasons and a prospect for Jones. Jurrjens would have been the Orioles ace and Prado their starting SS. And they would have gotten a prospect. And the O's said no. This is a reality check for those of you who disagreed with me and thought you could get a solid, young CFer for a bunch of B level prospects and a future 4th OFer in Reddick

 

Adam Jones hit .280 with a .785 OPS. His OPS over the past 3 seasons is .781. C Young's OPS over the past 3 seasons is .755. Adam Jones's OPS+ over the past 3 years is 109. Chris Young's OPS over the past 3 seasons is 99.

 

Now, lets look at this trade that you've overvalued incredibly.

 

Jair Jurrjens has averaged 134 IP over the past 2 seasons. He's a very good pitcher when he's healthy, but he hasn't been healthy since 2009, and knee injuries are never something you want to jump feet first into, especially with a pitcher, and especially when it's your push off leg.

 

Martin Prado OPS'd .687 last year. Why the hell would he be starting over JJ Hardy?!? Prady has played TWO games at SS in his entire career. Are you kidding me with this assessment?!?

 

Dude. I mean it's been brutal lately. You just spew ******** after ********. Prado would be the O's starting SS? Really??? Come on man.

[jacksonianmarch]

My god, you make he laugh hysterically. How bout we pick and choose stats as we please and see which ones work, hmmm?

 

Prado hit over .300 for three straight yrs, 2 of them as a starter. He had some injury issues last yr and was off that pace significantly. Sorry I misspoke about his role, forgot about Hardy, but Prado would definitely slot into a starting spot on that team. Possibly at 3b if they move Reynolds to 1b, 2b depending on Roberts or even in LF, which is open for them as of right now. Jurrjens has had his injuries, but I said he would be an ace ON THEIR TEAM. Meaning, he'd be their best pitcher. That is indisputable. And the other thing that you are seeing here is the Braves would be giving the O's MAJOR LEAGUE TALENT, something you don't have. Regardless, go back to the drawing board or maybe school, get a little education and then bring something to the table that doesnt completely blow. Merry Christmas! And btw, this rumor effectively neuters your position. Your lunch was delicious

[SoxFanForsyth]

My god, you make he laugh hysterically. How bout we pick and choose stats as we please and see which ones work, hmmm?

 

Prado hit over .300 for three straight yrs, 2 of them as a starter. He had some injury issues last yr and was off that pace significantly. Sorry I misspoke about his role, forgot about Hardy, but Prado would definitely slot into a starting spot on that team. Possibly at 3b if they move Reynolds to 1b, 2b depending on Roberts or even in LF, which is open for them as of right now. Jurrjens has had his injuries, but I said he would be an ace ON THEIR TEAM. Meaning, he'd be their best pitcher. That is indisputable. And the other thing that you are seeing here is the Braves would be giving the O's MAJOR LEAGUE TALENT, something you don't have. Regardless, go back to the drawing board or maybe school, get a little education and then bring something to the table that doesnt completely blow. Merry Christmas! And btw, this rumor effectively neuters your position. Your lunch was delicious

 

Hahahahahaha.

 

Ok. Well we will just go ahead and offer Aviles + DiceK + 1 prospect. Major league talent. Aviles OPS'd .698 last year, but hit over .300 in 2 of the 3 years before that.

 

God the sheer magnitude of ******** that comes out of your mouth is amazing. It really is.

 

Oh - and by the way - Reddick hit .280 with a .784 OPS in the MLB last year. Considering he had a better season than Prado last year, I'd say he's major league talent. Or, I should say, if he was on the Braves, he would be major league talent, but he's on the Red Sox, so he's not.

 

Nah, no bias though. Like I said, it takes about 2 minutes to do some research. Prado had played 2 games at SS prior to last year.

 

But I'm sure two injury-prone players plus 1 prospect is something that the Orioles just marveled at. Sure, Jurrjens would be their best SP. For about 140 IP. I'm sure they would be thrilled with that return. Just because these are players who played in the MLB doesn't mean it's a good deal. It's two players whose injuries have turned them to garbage last season, and they're having to sell low on them.

 

I'm the one who is picking and choosing stats, but you want to defer back to 2009 for Jurrjens and 2010 for Prado, and claim they're paying a lot because of how they performed a couple years ago??

 

Really setting the bar high there, Jackso. You just continuously make yourself sound dumber and dumber.

[FredLynn]

You boys should just settle down. Neither of you know how Aceves is going to work out as a SP. His sample size is much too small to make any reasonable predictions about it. He has good stuff, and he wants to start. I say its time to give him a shot at it and sit back and watch the show. Only then can we make meaningful comments on how good he is as a SP.

[jacksonianmarch]

DiceK is injured currently and was never as good as Jurrjens when healthy. Aviles never OPS'd over .800, while Prado did it 3 yrs in a row. No comparison. And Young had a much higher WAR last yr. but continue your delusion. Crazy is fun!

[SoxFanForsyth]

DiceK is injured currently and was never as good as Jurrjens when healthy. Aviles never OPS'd over .800' date=' while Prado did it 3 yrs in a row. No comparison. And Young had a much higher WAR last yr. but continue your delusion. Crazy is fun![/quote']

 

Um. Adam Jones: 3.2 WAR, Chris Young 2.7 WAR.

 

Fangraphs uses UZR when calculating WAR, which is not a single-season stat, it's a long term stat and even Mitchel Lichtman said that it should not be included in WAR calculations.

[SoxFanForsyth]

DiceK is injured currently and was never as good as Jurrjens when healthy. Aviles never OPS'd over .800' date=' while Prado did it 3 yrs in a row. No comparison. And Young had a much higher WAR last yr. but continue your delusion. Crazy is fun![/quote']

 

Yup. I cherry pick stats by using last year's stats. You don't cherry pick stats by ignoring last year's stats.

 

I guess crazy is fun.