2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[User Name]

I see salary relief as being their motivation.

 

Why go for salary relief without improvement when you can get salary relief and improve your ballclub?

 

They could easily get a better piece than Reddick from another ballclub.

[jung]

Is Kalish really still not ready at this point?

 

I would probably opt for seeing Redick part of a trade but not if Kalish is still not ready. The Sox seem to have a propensity of late for going after these "if he stays healthy" types with predictable results. So I would actually think Redick should be part of some sort of a trade package if Kalish can play.

[a700hitter]

Is Kalish really still not ready at this point?

 

I would probably opt for seeing Redick part of a trade but not if Kalish is still not ready. The Sox seem to have a propensity of late for going after these "if he stays healthy" types with predictable results. So I would actually think Redick should be part of some sort of a trade package if Kalish can play.

The surgery Kalish had is not a simple procedure. My understanding is that he had upper spinal surgery where a disc is essentially drilled out of his spine through his throat/neck and it is replaced with a cadaver disc. Prior to this past season, I thought he had a bright future, but there is probably a lot of uncertainty going forward after last season's injuries and surgery.

[a700hitter]

Looking forward to 2012, the balance of power may have shifted somewhat away from the AL East. Both the Rangers and the Angels have a very good offensive team and now each has some very solid pitching.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Two things i see wrong with this scenario:

 

1) Chase Field is a launching pad. Fenway is not likely to increase Young's power numbers, even though you could argue that the AL East has more favorable road stadiums, it also has better pitching.

 

2) It would take more than Reddick and two mid-level prospects to trade for a guy capable of 30 HR's and GG D at C who is cost-controlled (technically) at 7.5 mill for the next two seasons.

 

1. Take a look at the graph I put up. At least 5-6 of his fly outs at Chase would have been doubles or HR at Fenway.

 

2. A guy capable of 30 HR and GG D at CF. Also a guy who has 1. Never hit 30 HR, 2. Never hit .260, 3. Strikes out 20%+ each season, and is on a team filled with guys (Upton, Montero, Drew, Kubel) that all strike out around or above 20% of the time.

 

Look at their team. Who is their leadoff guy? They need someone who is going to hit .290 and get on base at a .355-.365 clip. They don't need an OF who hits .245 with a .335 OBP and strikes out 22.8% of the time. Especially not at $7mm more per season.

[Spitball]

Why go for salary relief without improvement when you can get salary relief and improve your ballclub?.

 

They have four outfielders. Three of them are are well paid. One of them, Parra, is inexpensive, had a good OBP, and can play defensively in any outfield position. One of them, Kubel, just signed with them, and Upton is not likely to be traded. Teams go for salary relief.

 

They could easily get a better piece than Reddick from another ballclub.

 

Where?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Why go for salary relief without improvement when you can get salary relief and improve your ballclub?

 

They could easily get a better piece than Reddick from another ballclub.

 

It wasn't the end all be all suggestion. It was just an idea to get the ball rolling. I'm not sure what their internal needs are, but I'm sure Cherington can figure it out and match something up well with them. If they need a couple spare parts, give up Reddick + Aviles + Doubront, or something like that. I hate to eat away at our SP depth, but if that's a deal breaker, make it work. We just signed Punto to help out with us in IF depth, so Aviles is redundant (even though he can technically play OF).

 

The asking price for Chris Young is not going to be sky high. He's coming off a down season, hitting .236. Buy relatively low on him

[User Name]

It wasn't the end all be all suggestion. It was just an idea to get the ball rolling. I'm not sure what their internal needs are, but I'm sure Cherington can figure it out and match something up well with them. If they need a couple spare parts, give up Reddick + Aviles + Doubront, or something like that. I hate to eat away at our SP depth, but if that's a deal breaker, make it work. We just signed Punto to help out with us in IF depth, so Aviles is redundant (even though he can technically play OF).

 

The asking price for Chris Young is not going to be sky high. He's coming off a down season, hitting .236. Buy relatively low on him

 

Arizona's bullpen sucks. So a couple of young arms (i think they would want Alex Wilson) plus a MIF with some upside (a guy like Coyle) would probably get it done.

 

But that would require at least two top-15 prospects.

[User Name]

They have four outfielders. Three of them are are well paid. One of them, Parra, is inexpensive, had a good OBP, and can play defensively in any outfield position. One of them, Kubel, just signed with them, and Upton is not likely to be traded. Teams go for salary relief.

 

 

 

Where?

 

The league is ripe with team with spare young bullpen arms, and a need for OF help with power potential. The Braves, Brewers, Minnesota, San Francisco, and the Rays, just to name a few.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Arizona's bullpen sucks. So a couple of young arms (i think they would want Alex Wilson) plus a MIF with some upside (a guy like Coyle) would probably get it done.

 

But that would require at least two top-15 prospects.[/QUOTE]

 

And if either of them turned out to be a potential 25 HR/25 SB guy, I'd be thrilled.

 

Alex Wilson (14th) and Sean Coyle (11th) are by no means "sure things", not to mention that Coyle is blocked for the foreseeable future, unless he wants to wait until he's 28 to make his debut.

 

FWIW, I'll give you our #11 and #14 ranked prospects for the past few years:

 

2004: Beau Vaughn (11), Tommy Hottovy (14)

2005: David Murphy (11), Jed Lowrie (14). To be fair, Ellsbury was ranked #13 in 2005, but it was immediately after he was drafted, so he had no time to build his rank like these guys.

2006: George Kottaras (11), Felix Doubront (14)

2007: Josh Reddick (11), Aaron Bates (14)

 

Look - By no means am I saying that we wouldn't be giving up a potential star who just matures a bit later than other players. It's very possible. But, looking at the ranking history, I don't think it would hurt very bad to watch two guys outside of the top 10 of the organization get traded for a guy who, while he struggles with avg, is a constant 20/20 threat.

[User Name]

I never said i wouldn't do it. I merely stated what i thought he'd be worth. No convincing needed here.

[Meh]

Arizona's bullpen sucks. So a couple of young arms (i think they would want Alex Wilson) plus a MIF with some upside (a guy like Coyle) would probably get it done.

 

The Diamondbacks have one of the better bullpens in the NL....

 

David Hernandez, J.J. Putz, Joe Paterson, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow and Saito.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I never said i wouldn't do it. I merely stated what i thought he'd be worth. No convincing needed here.

 

Ah - Sorry - misunderstood your comment.

[User Name]

Putz is injured on a yearly basis, Hernandez is great, Joe who?, Ziegler is a righty specialist, Breslow was a throw-in and Saito is 42 with a history of elbow trouble.

 

Some "great" bullpen that is.

 

It's not surprising that they're looking for younger power arms.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Diamondbacks have one of the better bullpens in the NL....

 

David Hernandez, J.J. Putz, Joe Paterson, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow and Saito.

 

Bullpen ERA of 3.71 last year, and in the NL West, that's nothing special by any means. Ranked in the bottom half of the NL (10th) in bullpen ERA last season.

 

Not sure how that somehow translates to "one of the better bullpens in the NL".

 

I hardly think that adding Saito will turn them into a top 3 bullpen in the NL, either. Saito is 41 and only threw 26.2 innings last season. He's not going to make them worse, but he's not going to make them better either.

[User Name]

Bullpen ERA of 3.71 last year, and in the NL West, that's nothing special by any means. Ranked in the bottom half of the NL (10th) in bullpen ERA last season.

 

Not sure how that somehow translates to "one of the better bullpens in the NL".

 

I hardly think that adding Saito will turn them into a top 3 bullpen in the NL, either. Saito is 41 and only threw 26.2 innings last season. He's not going to make them worse, but he's not going to make them better either.

 

Remember that if it's going to benefit the Red Sox, there's a always a but, logic be damned!

[SoxFanForsyth]

So, so true.

 

If we even mention a trade that benefits the Sox, according to Meh and Jacko, we won't match up well or don't have the chips to do it because all of our prospects are duds.

[Meh]

Bullpen ERA of 3.71 last year, and in the NL West, that's nothing special by any means. Ranked in the bottom half of the NL (10th) in bullpen ERA last season.

 

Not sure how that somehow translates to "one of the better bullpens in the NL".

 

I hardly think that adding Saito will turn them into a top 3 bullpen in the NL, either. Saito is 41 and only threw 26.2 innings last season. He's not going to make them worse, but he's not going to make them better either.

 

Full year of Brad Ziegler. They also added a nice lefty in Craig Breslow, who should be aided in going to the NL West.

 

Putz, hernandez and Paterson make a heck of a backend of the bullpen.

[User Name]

Ziegler is a righty-on-righty specialist.Joe Paterson has a grand total of 34 IP with a 1.26 WHIP and a 4.0 BB/9. Breslow is "nice" with his 1.52 WHIP last year (albeit with a high BABIP) and flyball tendencies moving from Oak to a bandbox.

 

Instead of looking at ERA's and throwing names out there, how about you check the stats? You don't quite seem to know about these pitchers.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Full year of Brad Ziegler. They also added a nice lefty in Craig Breslow, who should be aided in going to the NL West.

 

Putz, hernandez and Paterson make a heck of a backend of the bullpen.

 

Breslow: 3.79 ERA in 2011 while playing in Oakland, probably one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the bigs, and he's moving to a launching pad.

 

I'd hardly count on a guy with a career 4.50 ERA (Hernandez) to be a huge part of the back end of the rotation.

 

Plain and simple - they had a below-average bullpen last season, and added an oft-injured Saito and a guy who posted a 3.80 ERA while playing in a terrible hitters park. I'm not seeing how this somehow translates to one of the better bullpens in the NL.

[User Name]

I do not agree on Hernandez. He's blossomed into an excellent BP arm. Great stuff, even if he can be a bit wild.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I do not agree on Hernandez. He's blossomed into an excellent BP arm. Great stuff' date=' even if he can be a bit wild.[/quote']

 

3.89 BB/9 (as you said), but what really sticks out is his .253 BABIP last year as well as his extremely low 4.9% HR/FB. His LD% has increased each of the past 3 years, but somehow his ERA has dropped in each of those years.

 

Count me as skeptical. Normalize his BABIP his HR/FB, and he's still a 3.8-4.2 ERA pitcher.

 

And by the way, Ziegler did not give up a single HR last season in 58.1 IP. That's incredible.

[jacksonianmarch]

Regardless, you guys are talking about getting Chris Young on the cheap, which isnt going to happen. He's a 20/20 guy who in his off season put up a .751OPS while playing elite D in centerfield. These guys do not grow on trees, and at $7.5 mil, he's probably a little underpaid considering the market. He's a guy who the DBacks wouldnt trade right now anyway since they did win the NL West and arent looking to rebuild. If you deal for him, you're gonna have to move something at the big league level. They need a pen arm and they need some more offense. Subtracting Young while adding Kalish and a bunch of either non-prospects or far away prospects doesnt helpt them for 2012

[Spitball]

The league is ripe with team with spare young bullpen arms' date=' and a need for OF help with power potential. The Braves, Brewers, Minnesota, San Francisco, and the Rays, just to name a few.[/quote']

 

You are thinking 2010. The D'backs rebuilt their bullpen last year and fine tuned it this year. David Hernandez, J.J. Putz, Joe Paterson, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow, and now Saito makes for a pretty good bullpen.

 

With the money they have spent on Kubel, they might be looking to shed some money and Young might be the guy to go. Btw, from your list, I see the Giants as the only potential players for an outfielder making $7 million a year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Regardless' date=' you guys are talking about getting Chris Young on the cheap, which isnt going to happen. He's a 20/20 guy who in his off season put up a .751OPS while playing elite D in centerfield. These guys do not grow on trees, and at $7.5 mil, he's probably a little underpaid considering the market. He's a guy who the DBacks wouldnt trade right now anyway since they did win the NL West and arent looking to rebuild. If you deal for him, you're gonna have to move something at the big league level. They need a pen arm and they need some more offense. Subtracting Young while adding Kalish and a bunch of either non-prospects or far away prospects doesnt helpt them for 2012[/quote']

 

So, so true.

 

If we even mention a trade that benefits the Sox, according to Meh and Jacko, we won't match up well or don't have the chips to do it because all of our prospects are duds.

 

Case in Point.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, when you throw it out there with no grasp on reality, I have to give you a little reality check. I am sorry that I am the only one who can ground you to the floor when your head is in the clouds.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would have loved to have heard Jackso's reaction if someone said "We could get Adrian Gonzalez for Rizzo + Kelly + Fuentes + Patterson."

 

It would have been ridiculous.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well' date=' when you throw it out there with no grasp on reality, I have to give you a little reality check. I am sorry that I am the only one who can ground you to the floor when your head is in the clouds.[/quote']

 

Yeah. A guy who hasn't touched .260 and strikes out over 20% of the time is worth elite talent.

 

A package of Kalish/Reddick + Coyle + a BP arm would almost certainly make the deal.

[User Name]

You are thinking 2010. The D'backs rebuilt their bullpen last year and fine tuned it this year. David Hernandez, J.J. Putz, Joe Paterson, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow, and now Saito makes for a pretty good bullpen.

 

With the money they have spent on Kubel, they might be looking to shed some money and Young might be the guy to go. Btw, from your list, I see the Giants as the only potential players for an outfielder making $7 million a year.

 

Yet it ranked 10th in the 16-team NL in ERA. Paterson is wild and threw 36 IP with a WHIP over 1.25 and a 4.0 BB/9, i don't see why he's being talked about as a reliable bullpen arm. Ziegler is a right-on-right specialist and Breslow downright sucks. They've been looking for high-powered arms in return in some of their trades (Go through MLBTR if you don't believe me) meaning they are indeed looking for power arms to complement their BP. Actions speak louder than words.

 

On a side note, the Guardians are also looking for Offense, as well as the Blue Jays, who could deploy him as a LF or RF. Realistically, several teams besides the Sox could use Young so the D'Backs are in no obligation to trade him as a strict salary dump.

[a700hitter]

The Cubs and Red Sox have agreed that former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein won't be able to hire anyone from the Red Sox for three years, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com (on Twitter).

This is probably the compensation.