2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[seabeachfred]

btw' date=' I see the sox signing Hong Chih Kuo. He was just non-tendered by LA after an abysmal season marred by social anxiety disorder. If he gets his head on straight, he's a shut down reliever. Then again, Boston might be the last place you would want to go if you have an anxiety issue[/quote']

 

Jackson, if this your attempt as a Yankee fan to use the good neighbor policy on us, please spare us the pleasure if this is what you're going to suggest. I live in the Los Angeles area and saw this psychotic try to pitch on numerous occasions the past few years. Why he isn't in the loony bin by now is the biggest miracle on earth. He couldn't handle the pressure in laid back LA and he sure as hell couldn't hack it is pressurized Boston. A social anxiety disorder is a prescription for a mound disaster and this guy has had them in bulk. If you want to help your Red Sox friends please come up with something better than this. If Bumbling Ben would sign this guy it would cement his fast emerging reputation as a moron.

[SCM33]

I read an article recently that talked about this. In a nutshell.... Hey, Bedard is from Canada, so should the Sox stop signing guys from Canada because they have injury problems? Hey, Manny Ramirez was a douchebag, all guys from the DR are douchebags?

 

It works the same way with Darvish. He's from the same country. That's where the similarities end. The thing the Red Sox should definitely make a bid, but any more than 15-20 million would just be silly.

 

Bad comparison.

 

The game is different in their country. Starting pitchers are used differently and they dont adjust well.

 

Name a hyped pitcher from over there that has done well here. Nomo was pretty good if not extremely inconsistent and Kuroda has done well to finish his career off with the Dodgers (hes 36)....

 

In end end, the only guy who had any kind of extended success if not extremely inconsistent was Nomo, who had a major league forkball and was a strikeout pitcher in the MLB, not just Japan.

 

I am not against all players from Japan, just starting pitching. Any other position, bring them on.

[jung]

I would like to be optimistic. It is more fun than being pessimistic. But everything I hear and see coming from the Sox themselves is headed the other way. Do you actually think the idea that both Aceves and Bard will be prepped to start is a good thing? Does that not speak volumes for the amount of money BC has to spend or I should say the amount JH is willing to give him?

 

I guess there could be any number of reasons why JH appears to have decided to draw a line in the sand. I have said for a long time now that these are better business people than they are baseball people. If I were to view what has happened here purely from a business perspective, drawing a line in the sand makes all the sense in the world. Frankly doing less than that makes no sense what-so-ever. This however is baseball where there are championships to be won as well as dollars to be earned.

 

While JH surely knows about championships as well, I just think he has opted for the line in the sand approach. If we take the manager mess as an example, the business side of the house has done a very poor job of keeping baseball operations abreast of its intensions. I have a bad feeling about this. I am inclined to think that the same thing has happened again. JH and LL peeled back a bit of the curtain in the manager hunt but did not give BC clear direction. I suspect based on BC's very early comments about spending money this year, once again JH and LL peeled back the curtain a bit but failed to give BC clear direction with regard to resources at his disposal this off season until maybe just very recently.

[seabeachfred]

predictions: The Sox will try to get Darvish' date=' [b']or[/b] will sign Madson.

 

Valentine is high on Darvish, and Bobby's Japanese connections should be exploited.

Dice-K may rejuvenate under Valentine. Bard will be the closer if they get Darvish.

 

If they don't get Darvish, they will get a closer and start Bard. For closer, Bailey looks remote--Beane deals his players to the NL (e.g., Cahill). His asking price to AL teams is generally higher. Madson will be signed for $8-10 mil. 3years plus an option year. Ortiz will get a 2 year deal for $20 mil.

 

It would be swell if your turn out to be right SoxSport because we sure could use a starter like Darvish or a closer like Madson, but where is the money to sign these guys going to come from? From every indication we've seen and heard it looks like Henry is tightening his purse with such force that when he opens it moths will fly out. Still it would be nice to see one of these, or maybe both in Red Sox red next season. Right now, though, just call me a doubting Thomas on this one.

[Soxfan1]

Rich Hill for closer in 2012. No one has scored an earned run against him since 2009.

 

Seriously though, I bet he will be a big surprise in the bullpen next year.

 

Non-tendered.

[Palodios]

Bad comparison.

 

The game is different in their country. Starting pitchers are used differently and they dont adjust well.

 

Name a hyped pitcher from over there that has done well here. Nomo was pretty good if not extremely inconsistent and Kuroda has done well to finish his career off with the Dodgers (hes 36)

 

How is converting a pitcher who pitches every 6 days a week to 5 days a week any different than converting a starting pitcher to a relief pitcher? We saw a glimpse of greatness in Dice-k in 2008. Everything I've heard of Darvish has been all positive. I just don't think it makes any sense to ignore a guy because the culture of baseball is a bit different over there.

[a700hitter]

If Valentine likes Darvish and the Sox go after him, I would have to think he has what it takes to be really successful. Valentine never thought much of Dice K and he was right.

[SCM33]

How is converting a pitcher who pitches every 6 days a week to 5 days a week any different than converting a starting pitcher to a relief pitcher? We saw a glimpse of greatness in Dice-k in 2008. Everything I've heard of Darvish has been all positive. I just don't think it makes any sense to ignore a guy because the culture of baseball is a bit different over there.

 

 

Well, look at two guys who came over recently from Japan and were thrown in to big league rotations and were asked to change their pitching routines:

 

Dice-K.....tommy john surgery last year, who knows what will happen.

Chien Ming Wang.....tommy john surgery in 2008, never been the same since.

 

Kuroda has done a nice job but he pitches in the AL west, pitches less innings per game (NL) and has made the change much later in his career.

 

Im not saying ignore it, Im saying they shouldnt pay this kid all this money as an unknown. Didnt we learn our lessons with Dice-K? I have no problem going over there and finding talent.....but if they are going to spend all that money, then why didnt they go after Wilson, or re-sign Papelbon, or go after Aramis Ramirez.

 

Why pay unknowns from Japan huge amounts of money when you can just sign guys over here who have already proven they can play here?

[jung]

I don't buy the culture thing with Japanese pitchers either especially with V as manager. However you just can not convince me that the pressure batter to batter is at all comparable. Everybody that has seen dice pitch in both places has said that dice' was worlds more aggressive on the mound over there compared to over here. This picking around the edges thing that we have seen over and over again here, did not happen over there. It is my understanding that he went after hitters.

 

So my concern with bringing pitchers over here is that not very much of what they do in Japan makes much of a difference when it comes to pitching here. It is way different and I think the biggest difference is the quality of the lineup 1-9 here compared to there.

[iortiz]

I think everyone realizes that the Sox can be a good team if they fill a few holes' date=' i.e. the entire bullpen. Right now we ain't seeing anything and people are worrying. Offering arb to Ortiz and talking about staying under the LT cap doesn't inspire a lot of confidence or hope right now.[/quote']

 

As always you put it in better words.

[Palodios]

Why pay unknowns from Japan huge amounts of money when you can just sign guys over here who have already proven they can play here?

 

Lackey had a career ERA under 4.00 before he came to Boston. Everyone complains about pitchers coming from the AL West, the NL in general, and plus, pitchers from the AL East always come at a massive premium. There are no sure things. If their scouting reports say Darvish looks like the real deal, then d well, sometimes it has to be done.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox signed right-handed reliever Matt Albers to a one-year contract tonight, but did not offer a deal to lefthanded reliever Rich Hill, making him a free agent.

Start printing the playoff tickets.

[iortiz]

We have 2 left handed hitters with about 1 combined season of ABs to share RF. I think most people think we need a right handed stick in the OF.

 

Yup, I think we need to balance the line up.

[example1]

1. If Darvish can be had for the right price they should get him. By right price I mean the amount Henry would be willing to spend. I think if he's healthy he has a very high ceiling.

 

2. What would be wrong with signing Madson for a few million less than papelbon and a year or two shorter? How is that a bad thing again? He's a very good pitcher. Pitched for good teams in big situations. No big injury concerns. I don't get the freaking out, other than from those with an unreasonably high view of Papelbon--who has suddenly ascended to god-like status around here.

 

3. Do people believe Cherington would be well served to put all his cards on the table, explain the team strategy for all to hear? Should he be freaking out like many of you are, saying "good heavens me! We can't go into next season without a RH OF! Gracious, we will have to pay through the nose for some veteran who has closed before because we are desperate! Please be nice to us Scott Boras and the rest of the agents out there... We are desperate!".

 

 

He'll mo. This team could manage with RF as it is. They can and will find players for all the roles and might still sign a significant player or make a big trade. It does the team no good to look and act desperate. Remember, every potential signing is ammunition for many of you next year if the move doesn't work our. That would have included Papelbon too.

[SCM33]

Lackey had a career ERA under 4.00 before he came to Boston. Everyone complains about pitchers coming from the AL West' date=' the NL in general, and plus, pitchers from the AL East always come at a massive premium. There are no sure things. If their scouting reports say Darvish looks like the real deal, then d well, sometimes it has to be done.[/quote']

 

....I didnt say anything about Lackey. I, like yourself (probably) scratched my head when they signed him. He was never an ace and didnt deserve that money and we all knew it before he ever threw a pitch here. I am not going to sit here and tell you that I knew Lackey would fail, because I didnt. When they signed him it did raise red flags though.

 

Also, dont forget, Dice-Ks scouting reports said he was the real deal too. They said he threw a magical pitch (which as it turns out, doesnt exist...shocker)

 

dont believe me? Read his scouting report:

 

Click Here

[jung]

I don't think the Sox have to say a word about their strategy. However you don't have to be Karnak the Magnificent to look at what they are and are not doing and make a reasonable supposition.

 

"The next Envelop please"

[SCM33]

1. If Darvish can be had for the right price they should get him. By right price I mean the amount Henry would be willing to spend. I think if he's healthy he has a very high ceiling.

Well, apparently I am against the tide with this one.

 

2. What would be wrong with signing Madson for a few million less than papelbon and a year or two shorter? How is that a bad thing again? He's a very good pitcher. Pitched for good teams in big situations. No big injury concerns. I don't get the freaking our, other than from those with an unreasonably high view of Papelbon--who has suddenly ascended to god-like status around here

Nope, not god. Just reliable. Madson has done it for 1 year.....I am not saying he is a bad pitcher. I would just rather have the younger guy who has been doing it in this city for longer....even if hes a little more expensive.

 

3. Do people believe Cherington would be well served to put all his cards on the table, explain the team strategy for all to hear? Should he be freaking out like many of you are, saying "good heavens me! We can't go into next season without a RH OF! Gracious, we will have to pay through the nose for some veteran who has closed before because we are desperate! Please be nice to us Scott Boras and the rest of the agents out there... We are desperate!"

I dont give a s*** about RF. We will be fine with what we have....we will make do....but dont act like that is BC's call. He is LL's puppet. He will sign who LL wants to sign. The contracts he offers players that LL is not in agreement with, will be vetoed. For all we know BC has proposed 5-6 contracts to LL that have been turned down.

 

He'll mo. This team could manage with RF as it is. They can and will find players for all the roles and might still sign a significant player or make a big trade. It does the team no good to look and act desperate. Remember, every potential signing is ammunition for many of you next year if the move doesn't work our. That would have included Papelbon too.

Agree with RF. They didnt look or act desperate with Valentine, they looked pathetic. In the weeks since, they've looked apathetic. In terms of Madson/Papelbon and "ammunition", well...if they sign Madson, I want him to succeed. If I wanted him to fail, I wouldnt be a Redsox fan. If Madson does fail and Papelbon does well in PHI, you bet your ass I am going to talk about it.

[example1]

I think it would be foolish to write off starting pitchers from Japan based on a very small sample size. He'll, I think it would be foolish with a large sample size. Why be blind to a good chunk of the baseball playing world if you don't have to be?

 

There is plenty of thought that dice-k struggled with injury long before he was shut down in 2011. There were games early on when he looked very good and had a few seasons where he was well above MLB fringe caliber. Let's stop pretending he was an incompetent and untalented pitcher.

 

I would suggest that the sox stay engaged with Japanese pitchers to maxamize their chances of landing the first big success story from those ranks. Bobby valentine seems like just the right vehicle for that to happen.

[example1]

You do realize that Madson was the bullpen ace the year before, right? Yes, he only closed full time for one season. The year before that they used him as the sox used Bard last year. He was in many high leverage situations and was their best reliever.

 

Let's not overdo it with the magical qualities of the closer position. It's important to show you've done it and can handle it (though not essential, IMHO) but teams over pay for that line on a resume probably more than any other. I don't expect the sox to fall into that camp if they don't have to.

[iortiz]

I would like to be optimistic. It is more fun than being pessimistic. But everything I hear and see coming from the Sox themselves is headed the other way. Do you actually think the idea that both Aceves and Bard will be prepped to start is a good thing? Does that not speak volumes for the amount of money BC has to spend or I should say the amount JH is willing to give him?

 

I guess there could be any number of reasons why JH appears to have decided to draw a line in the sand. I have said for a long time now that these are better business people than they are baseball people. If I were to view what has happened here purely from a business perspective, drawing a line in the sand makes all the sense in the world. Frankly doing less than that makes no sense what-so-ever. This however is baseball where there are championships to be won as well as dollars to be earned.

 

While JH surely knows about championships as well, I just think he has opted for the line in the sand approach. If we take the manager mess as an example, the business side of the house has done a very poor job of keeping baseball operations abreast of its intensions. I have a bad feeling about this. I am inclined to think that the same thing has happened again. JH and LL peeled back a bit of the curtain in the manager hunt but did not give BC clear direction. I suspect based on BC's very early comments about spending money this year, once again JH and LL peeled back the curtain a bit but failed to give BC clear direction with regard to resources at his disposal this off season until maybe just very recently.

 

Did BC have clear the 2012 budget, when he took the job? The common sense tells me yes he did. But after his execution this offseason thus far, I'm not sure.

[SCM33]

I think it would be foolish to write off starting pitchers from Japan based on a very small sample size. He'll' date=' I think it would be foolish with a large sample size. Why be blind to a good chunk of the baseball playing world if you don't have to be? [/quote'] Like I said, I am fine if they want to find some players from Japan and sign them. I just dont think we should spend all that money like we did on Dice-K for an unknown when there were plenty of ways to help our team in the MLB FA market.

 

There is plenty of thought that dice-k struggled with injury long before he was shut down in 2011. There were games early on when he looked very good and had a few seasons where he was well above MLB fringe caliber. Let's stop pretending he was an incompetent and untalented pitcher.

Of course he had talent. I would hope they wouldnt have wasted all that money for the posting fee on a guy with no talent.

 

I would suggest that the sox stay engaged with Japanese pitchers to maxamize their chances of landing the first big success story from those ranks. Bobby valentine seems like just the right vehicle for that to happen.

At what cost? The Sox came out of winter meetings claiming poor and luxury tax. Spending all that money on an unknown sends a mixed message.

[example1]

I don't think the Sox have to say a word about their strategy. However you don't have to be Karnak the Magnificent to look at what they are and are not doing and make a reasonable supposition.

 

"The next Envelop please"

 

The reasonable supposition is that it makes lots of sense to not go over the LT this year if they can help it. It also makes sense to save their chips for next year and to be prepared to unload salary for those pitchers.

 

How good would both Matt Cain and Cole Hamels look next year? If we knew they are going to make an all out rum for those two would that make the moves this year more sensible on the surface? Purely hypothetical...

[SCM33]

You do realize that Madson was the bullpen ace the year before, right? Yes, he only closed full time for one season. The year before that they used him as the sox used Bard last year. He was in many high leverage situations and was their best reliever.

 

Let's not overdo it with the magical qualities of the closer position. It's important to show you've done it and can handle it (though not essential, IMHO) but teams over pay for that line on a resume probably more than any other. I don't expect the sox to fall into that camp if they don't have to.

 

Hes been a closer for 1 year.

 

Many setup guys cant close. Fact.

 

Its not "magical qualites", rather....its consistency. Brad Lidge has gone from the best, to the worst, to the best......to the, well you get it. Some closers can be roller coaster rides. If there is anything that Papelbon was, it was consistent. Even his "bad" years were still pretty good.

[example1]

Like I said' date=' I am fine if they want to find some players from Japan and sign them. I just dont think we should spend all that money like we did on Dice-K for an unknown when there were plenty of ways to help our team in the MLB FA market.[/quote']

 

Which FA SP would you prefer this year? An injured and old Oswalt? An overpaid Buehrle? CJ Wilson?

[iortiz]

Which FA SP would you prefer this year? An injured and old Oswalt? An overpaid Buehrle? CJ Wilson?

 

were CJ and Buehrle overpaid? like Lackey?

[example1]

Hes been a closer for 1 year.

 

Many setup guys cant close. Fact.

 

Its not "magical qualites", rather....its consistency. Brad Lidge has gone from the best, to the worst, to the best......to the, well you get it. Some closers can be roller coaster rides. If there is anything that Papelbon was, it was consistent. Even his "bad" years were still pretty good.

 

Papelbon is gone. He isn't coming back. He may be a unique and irreplaceable closer. He may not. I think he was great too, believe me, but his current contract is at or exceeding his highest possible returns. Again, we wI'll have to watch tomsee how he does, but for the time being he is gone and many are comPlaining about a guy like Madson. Seems weird to me. Madson isn't Lidge. He's an effective pitcher whose numbers rival Papelbons over the past two years... In a small stadium, in pressure packed games, rabid fans, high expectations.

 

It wanst Madson who walked off the mound losing to the orioles at the end of this year. His team made the playoffs and Madson held his own.

[SCM33]

Which FA SP would you prefer this year? An injured and old Oswalt? An overpaid Buehrle? CJ Wilson?

 

I know that this is a loaded question, but I will try to answer it as sincere as possible even though I know you will spin it and it will blow up on me haha. Wilson would have been nice. Actually I wanted them to improve their BP first and foremost.

 

They are moving Bard and Aceves in to the rotation. My problem is not with that. My problem is that that are dealing from a position of weakness to another position of weakness which is creating an even bigger hole as they have nothing of value in the 7th,8th and 9th innings as I type this. Madson could change that but I would really like to see them addressing the BP situation.

 

As far as the closer is concerned, I am actually being a hypocrite as I have said in the past that both DH's and CP's are dying breed and are easily replaceable. I was against the Ortiz signing so I SHOULD NOT be against letting Papelbon go. I guess that the fanboy in me would rather see him finish his career here as Mariano did in NY.

[jung]

Based on the cost and what I believe to be a significant difference between the quality of offensive talent that pitchers in Japan face when compared with pitchers here, I would say that the combination of posting fee and per annum contract cost makes the risk very hard to comprehend.

 

Did dice pitch competently and even above average all be it for a relatively short period of time? Yes he did.

 

Did he ever pitch like anything close to what the Sox paid for him? No he did not.

 

Did he ever pitch aggressively here like he apparently did in Japan? I would say no. Even at his best here, he picked at corners and never really went after anybody. Did not matter if you batting 4th or 9th.

 

Again that is the part I worry about. Japanese teams often have two, maybe three hitters that are pound for pound comparable to hitters on MLB teams but have nothing like what pitchers have to face 1 through 9 on an MLB team.

[example1]

were CJ and Buehrle overpaid? like Lackey?

 

You think Buehrle is worth four years at almost 15m? He's a non-spectacular innings eater. Very similar contract to Lackeys, because he doesn't have ace stuff.

 

Wilson? His deal isn't horrible, but it is certainly a big FA contract. If he's anything but an ace it will be an overpay at the end, when he is paid 20m in year 5.

 

I think FA is almost by definition an overpay.

[iortiz]

Nobody is against Madson at all, It's about how much they are going to give him if he comes, of course. If they give him something close to Pap's contract and shits the bed, everybody is going to be pissed off and will point the FO, and not Madson, well maybe after pointing the FO, I guess, and you know who will be in the first row.