2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[Spitball]

Your math is off' date=' the savings is 4.5 million. Find a better shortstop on the free agent market for 4.5 million.[/quote']

 

But who? If the Sox sign Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, they will be going with the same pitchers. I'd rather they pick up Scutaro's option and go for Buehrle, Wilson, or even Jackson. Pitching is the problem. The offense and defense may have weaknesses but not anything beyond what other contending teams (like the Tigers, Cardinals, Brewers, Giants, and Phillies) are facing.

[Palodios]

But who? If the Sox sign Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins' date=' they will be going with the same pitchers. I'd rather they pick up Scutaro's option and go for Buehrle, Wilson, or even Jackson. Pitching is the problem. The offense and defense may have weaknesses but not anything beyond what other contending teams (like the Tigers, Cardinals, Brewers, Giants, and Phillies) are facing.[/quote']

 

To clarify my statement... You will not find a better SS for 4.5 million.

[Palodios]

The Sox won't be big players this offseason at all in terms of FA signings.

 

They will, however, make a substantial trade for a SP, you can count on that. More than likely a top of the rotation guy. Guy like Felix, J Johnson, Dan Haren, or potentially a middle of the rotation guy like John Danks.

 

Darvish is actually an interesting suggestion. The Sox want to be just under that luxury cap range, and with the posting fee, his per year salary will probably end up lower.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Darvish is actually an interesting suggestion. The Sox want to be just under that luxury cap range' date=' and with the posting fee, his per year salary will probably end up lower.[/quote']

 

Ugh.

 

DiceK made me hate all Japanese pitchers. Seriously.

[a700hitter]

In the results of the "Who's to Blame" poll on Boston.com, Theo finished 2nd only to Lackey. Tito was a distant third.

[iortiz]

I've been saying a looooot of times even before the 2011 trade deadline, that this team is unbalanced. We can't trump with only offense. We need at least another solid/healthy/young/(3-spot-profile) pitcher.

 

IMO

Priority #1: SP (3-4 spot)

Priority #2: Sign Papelbon

Priority #3: at least a couple of decent arms for the BP (If Aceves don't make the transition, bring 3 arms.)

Priority #4: sign Ortiz if He accepts a decent deal, otherwise give the DH to Youk.

Priority #4.1: if Youk takes the DH spot, bring a 3B, but please, don't dare giving Aviles/Lowrie the full time job.(keep them as utility if you want)

Priority #5: take Scutaro option if you can't replace him with a better SS (I'd try to go for Reyes)

 

Then... whatever you want to do, is ok for me.

 

The team would look like this:

 

A-God 1B

Peddy 2B

Youk/FA 3B

Scutaro/FA SS

CC LF (I'm telling you Carl...)

Ells CC

Kalish/Reddick RF

Papi/Youk DH

Salty C

 

Rotation

 

Beckett

Lester

Buch

New SP

Aceves

 

Lackey? Get rid or send him to the pen. (unlikely to happen, but who knows)

 

BP

 

Papelbon

Bard

1 New Arm

2 New Arm

Wheeler

Doubront

Weiland

 

Now, the 100 Million question: who are the SP, FAs and New BP Arms?

 

My suggestion later, I'm sleepy and very tired, stay tune.

[iortiz]

In the results of the "Who's to Blame" poll on Boston.com' date=' Theo finished 2nd only to Lackey. Tito was a distant third.[/quote']

 

Well, seems like a lot of people feel the same way like us.

 

So... We are not crazy at all.

[Palodios]

Ugh.

 

DiceK made me hate all Japanese pitchers. Seriously.

 

Yeah, like pretty much all of Boston, I'm sure. Okajima and Tazawa haven't been shining examples either. But Darvish would be a good way to get an elite pitcher for no luxury tax implications.

[SoxFanForsyth]

IMO

Priority #1: SP (3-4 spot)

Priority #2: Sign Papelbon

Priority #3: at least a couple of decent arms for the BP (If Aceves don't make the transition, bring 3 arms.)

Priority #4: sign Ortiz if He accepts a decent deal, otherwise give the DH to Youk.

Priority #4.1: if Youk takes the DH spot, bring a 3B, but please, don't dare giving Aviles/Lowrie the full time job.(keep them as utility if you want)

Priority #5: take Scutaro option if you can't replace him with a better SS (I'd try to go for Reyes)

 

I'm shocked. After ALLLLLLLLLLLLLL this talk about the lack of pitching depth, it's not even in your top 5 priorities?!?

 

IMO

 

1. Obtain a #3-4 Starter

2. Sign Pap/Ortiz, exercise Scut's option

3. Obtain pitching depth (Bruce Chen, Chris Capuano, Livan Hernandez type players)

4. Get some bullpen arms (Mike Gonzalez, please?)

[a700hitter]

Well, seems like a lot of people feel the same way like us.

 

So... We are not crazy at all.

But statistical metrics indicate that we are crazy.

LOL!

[iortiz]

I'm shocked. After ALLLLLLLLLLLLLL this talk about the lack of pitching depth, it's not even in your top 5 priorities?!?

 

IMO

 

1. Obtain a #3-4 Starter

2. Sign Pap/Ortiz, exercise Scut's option

3. Obtain pitching depth (Bruce Chen, Chris Capuano, Livan Hernandez type players)

4. Get some bullpen arms (Mike Gonzalez, please?)

 

Sorry, my bad, missed just put in the paper but still in my mind, trust me . It is on my top 5 as well.

[iortiz]

But statistical metrics indicate that we are crazy.

LOL!

 

[example1]

In the results of the "Who's to Blame" poll on Boston.com' date=' Theo finished 2nd only to Lackey. Tito was a distant third.[/quote']

 

Well, since Theo channels you, should you step down as his advisor?

[a700hitter]

Well' date=' since Theo channels you, should you step down as his advisor?[/quote']LoL! If they complete this collapse, I have been planning to change my custom user title. The boy is causing me some embarrassment. I was going to do it without saying anything, but now that it is out in the open, don't be surprised if this shows up in the Boston Globe. I tried to do it without embarrassing Theo. Now, you'll only have yourself to blame.

[example1]

LoL! If they complete this collapse' date=' I have been planning to change my custom user title. The boy is causing me some embarrassment. I was going to do it without saying anything, but now that it is out in the open, don't be surprised if this shows up in the Boston Globe. I tried to do it without embarrassing Theo. Now, you'll only have yourself to blame.[/quote']

 

Yeah, but I never claimed that Theo channels me. I think he's a good GM.

 

Your opinion blows in the wind. A 6 game win streak (one week's worthy of ball) will suddenly have the Sox as a mid-90s win team, strongly in the playoffs, and nobody will be calling for Theo's head.

 

It's funny how with so much sample size and so many freaking games peoples' opinions ebb and flow on the razors edge of a few games.

[iortiz]

The name of the game is RESULTS, always. If he does right, he will be praised, otherwise lynched. Public characters are always in public scrutiny.

[example1]

The name of the game is RESULTS' date=' always. If he does right, he will be praised, otherwise lynched. Public characters are always in public scrutiny.[/quote']

 

There's scrutiny and there's lynch-mobbing. People have a choice about which they want to do.

 

As far as I'm concerned, scrutinize away. It's fun and easy to be an arm-chair GM.

 

However, with the 3rd best record in baseball over the last 4 years (that stops BEFORE their last World Series in 2007).

 

2011-- 3rd highest payroll

2010-- 2nd highest payroll

2009-- 4th highest payroll

2008-- 4th highest payroll

 

You guys are acting as if this is supposed to be easy. Yes, they have a high payroll. Never the highest in their division. They have a big market. Never the biggest in their division or even the second biggest in baseball.

 

With very few tweaks this team will be a WS contender again next year. That's the sign of a good team, not a s***** one.

[boston22407]

There's scrutiny and there's lynch-mobbing. People have a choice about which they want to do.

 

As far as I'm concerned, scrutinize away. It's fun and easy to be an arm-chair GM.

 

However, with the 3rd best record in baseball over the last 4 years (that stops BEFORE their last World Series in 2007).

 

2011-- 3rd highest payroll

2010-- 2nd highest payroll

2009-- 4th highest payroll

2008-- 4th highest payroll

 

You guys are acting as if this is supposed to be easy. Yes, they have a high payroll. Never the highest in their division. They have a big market. Never the biggest in their division or even the second biggest in baseball.

 

With very few tweaks this team will be a WS contender again next year. That's the sign of a good team, not a s***** one.

 

I wonder who has the highest

[iortiz]

There's scrutiny and there's lynch-mobbing. People have a choice about which they want to do.

 

As far as I'm concerned, scrutinize away. It's fun and easy to be an arm-chair GM.

 

However, with the 3rd best record in baseball over the last 4 years (that stops BEFORE their last World Series in 2007).

 

2011-- 3rd highest payroll

2010-- 2nd highest payroll

2009-- 4th highest payroll

2008-- 4th highest payroll

 

You guys are acting as if this is supposed to be easy. Yes, they have a high payroll. Never the highest in their division. They have a big market. Never the biggest in their division or even the second biggest in baseball.

 

With very few tweaks this team will be a WS contender again next year. That's the sign of a good team, not a s***** one.

 

Nobody said it was easy; nevertheless, this is still his job and is very well paid in order to deliver RESULTS, just as any other job according with the resources available (plenty here) and expectations associated with the money deployed. Sorry E1, but I don't buy the 3rd-best-W-record thing as an argument since still the SECOND biggest payroll in the AL and as you said, they still have the 3rd in all BB. Make a good paper in the POs is at least their MAIN goal as long as they spend those tons of money. No excuses my friend, no excuses.

 

BTW, this???... doesn't make your argument stronger but the opposite.

 

2011-- 3rd highest payroll

2010-- 2nd highest payroll

2009-- 4th highest payroll

2008-- 4th highest payroll

[a700hitter]

There's scrutiny and there's lynch-mobbing. People have a choice about which they want to do.

 

As far as I'm concerned, scrutinize away. It's fun and easy to be an arm-chair GM.

 

However, with the 3rd best record in baseball over the last 4 years (that stops BEFORE their last World Series in 2007).

 

2011-- 3rd highest payroll

2010-- 2nd highest payroll

2009-- 4th highest payroll

2008-- 4th highest payroll

 

You guys are acting as if this is supposed to be easy. Yes, they have a high payroll. Never the highest in their division. They have a big market. Never the biggest in their division or even the second biggest in baseball.

 

With very few tweaks this team will be a WS contender again next year. That's the sign of a good team, not a s***** one.

Slight tweaks? They need 2 starters, including a reliable stud. They need to re-sign Papelbon and get a whole new bullpen other than Bard. They need a RF and a professional 4th OF. They need a backup catcher. They need a reliable top infielder who can play 2nd, 3rd and SS to share time with Scutaro, Youk and Pedroia who have each had a lot of DL time in the last 2 seasons. Slight tweaks?

 

What about our minor leagues? Do we have any significant help coming from there?

[iortiz]

Slight tweaks? They need 2 starters, including a reliable stud. They need to re-sign Papelbon and get a whole new bullpen other than Bard. They need a RF and a professional 4th OF. They need a backup catcher. They need a reliable top infielder who can play 2nd, 3rd and SS to share time with Scutaro, Youk and Pedroia who have each had a lot of DL time in the last 2 seasons. Slight tweaks?

 

What about our minor leagues? Do we have any significant help coming from there?

 

Good point, and another good way to see the issue.

[example1]

Slight tweaks? They need 2 starters, including a reliable stud. They need to re-sign Papelbon and get a whole new bullpen other than Bard. They need a RF and a professional 4th OF. They need a backup catcher. They need a reliable top infielder who can play 2nd, 3rd and SS to share time with Scutaro, Youk and Pedroia who have each had a lot of DL time in the last 2 seasons. Slight tweaks?

 

What about our minor leagues? Do we have any significant help coming from there?

 

They don't need a "reliable stud". They need a starting pitcher or two. You are advocating putting Aceves in there... is he the "reliable stud" you would advocate getting? Their "reliable stud" should be Buchholz, who was an All Star last year.

 

They do need a lot of work on the bullpen. However, they aren't going to be signing 5 relief aces. It is going to be more players of the Dan Wheeler, Franklin Morales type. Sorry. There are no Rafael Sorianos on the market. MAYBE they will go after a guy like Heath Bell and Paps. That would be going big. Otherwise, it will be fill-ins. This isn't Playstation team creation here. It is the real world.

 

Their RF will be either Reddick or Kalish. I don't expect you to love Kalish because he's unproven, but he's a stud. He just needs time to develop.

 

They don't need a "top infielder" who can play 2nd, 3rd and SS. They have Aviles, who is young and was a starter on another club before. He and Scutaro with a healthy IF will be fine.

 

What do you say to the fact that this team had the 2nd best record in baseball for most of the season? Does that success play no role in your assessment of their current state going into next year?

 

I feel like the last few weeks have given you a disproportionately negative (though not unexpectedly so) response to the state of the Sox.

[example1]

Nobody said it was easy; nevertheless' date=' this is still his job and is very well paid in order to deliver RESULTS, just as any other job according with the resources available (plenty here) and expectations associated with the money deployed. [/quote']

 

"Expectations"

 

They have spent a lot of money since Theo joined in2003, for sure.

 

Let's look at the results of that spending:

 

*Average # wins per-season (including incomplete 2011): 93

*Average # wins per-season rank: (2)

 

Number of playoff appearances: 7 (assuming 2011):

Number of playoff appearances rank: (2)

 

How does that stack up?

*Top 10 teams, sorted by playoff appearances (assuming 2011 appearances), then by average wins per-season (because many teams have appeared 2 times). Since 2003

 

[table] Team | PLAYOFFS

NYY | 8

BOS | 7

PHI | 5

LAA | 5

ATL | 5

MIN | 5

STL | 4

LAD | 4

CHC | 3

CHW | 2 [/table]

 

Even if the Sox don't make the playoffs this year, they will still have the 2nd most appearances during that time.

 

* World Series championships: 2

* World Series championships rank: (1)

 

You talk about expectations. In terms of expectations, what more could you possibly want? Unless you show me a detailed analysis of costs/win and playoff longevity (I don't feel like working with more spreadsheets) I'm just going to assume that you guys are just venting about expectations and excuses and people deserving to be fired because you are frustrated.

 

We will have all off-season to discuss what to do next, but I'm certainly not at all ashamed of how things have gone for the Sox since 2003. Given their standing as either FIRST in the category that matters most (WS wins) or SECOND in the one that matters second most (playoff appearances) or SECOND in the one that matters third most (average wins per season) I think your discussion about "expectations" is, by definition, unrealistic.

 

Nonetheless, I find you to be a GREAT poster and someone I like discussing this stuff with! :thumbsup:

[a700hitter]

Yeah, but I never claimed that Theo channels me. I think he's a good GM.

 

Your opinion blows in the wind. A 6 game win streak (one week's worthy of ball) will suddenly have the Sox as a mid-90s win team, strongly in the playoffs, and nobody will be calling for Theo's head.

 

It's funny how with so much sample size and so many freaking games peoples' opinions ebb and flow on the razors edge of a few games.

I said it before you posted this^. If the stop the bleeding and get to the playoffs and make a good post season run, I have said that the criticism goes away and he will get and deserve the credit. No one is fixing blame based on a small sample side. We are debating where the blame will lie 'if' they collapse and don't make the post season. If that happens, there will be a 3 year record of failure-- not a small sample side. If the pull out of this nosedive and represent themselves well in the playoffs, there is no failure. We all acknowledge that we are discussing this issue hypothetically. In 5 days or less the situation will no longer be hypothetical.

 

After the way that the Rays s*** on themselves tonight, the Red Sox road to the playoffs will be easier, but every time this Red Sox team gets a break, it has s*** on itself bringing it to the brink.

[a700hitter]

They don't need a "reliable stud". They need a starting pitcher or two. You are advocating putting Aceves in there... is he the "reliable stud" you would advocate getting? Their "reliable stud" should be Buchholz, who was an All Star last year.

 

They do need a lot of work on the bullpen. However, they aren't going to be signing 5 relief aces. It is going to be more players of the Dan Wheeler, Franklin Morales type. Sorry. There are no Rafael Sorianos on the market. MAYBE they will go after a guy like Heath Bell and Paps. That would be going big. Otherwise, it will be fill-ins. This isn't Playstation team creation here. It is the real world.

 

Their RF will be either Reddick or Kalish. I don't expect you to love Kalish because he's unproven, but he's a stud. He just needs time to develop.

 

They don't need a "top infielder" who can play 2nd, 3rd and SS. They have Aviles, who is young and was a starter on another club before. He and Scutaro with a healthy IF will be fine.

 

What do you say to the fact that this team had the 2nd best record in baseball for most of the season? Does that success play no role in your assessment of their current state going into next year?

 

I feel like the last few weeks have given you a disproportionately negative (though not unexpectedly so) response to the state of the Sox.

I think the need for pitching is much more critical than you do. Lots of experts were predicting regression by Buchholz this season. I think it remains to be seen hom this broken back will affect hi delivery and effectiveness, and even if fully healthy, we don't know if he can repeat 2010. Lackey is looking more and more like a complete bust, and no one would be surprised if he follows Dice K down the Tommy John surgery road. I would advocate Aceves as a 5th starter or depth/spot starter. I think the Sox need a pitching stud like CJ Wilson, because our current crop of starters can't go deep into games and that is a bullpen killer.

[example1]

I said it before you posted this^. If the stop the bleeding and get to the playoffs and make a good post season run' date=' I have said that the criticism goes away and he will get and deserve the credit. No one is fixing blame based on a small sample side. We are debating where the blame will lie [b']'if'[/b] they collapse and don't make the post season. If that happens, there will be a 3 year record of failure-- not a small sample side. If the pull out of this nosedive and represent themselves well in the playoffs, there is no failure. We all acknowledge that we are discussing this issue hypothetically. In 5 days or less the situation will no longer be hypothetical.

 

After the way that the Rays s*** on themselves tonight, the Red Sox road to the playoffs will be easier, but every time this Red Sox team gets a break, it has s*** on itself bringing it to the brink.

 

Best case scenario:

 

Sox win every game for the rest of the season, win world series

--You laud Theo as a genius, the FO and ownership have done it again and deserve ultimate praise. (because it can't be luck)

--17 SUCCESSFUL GAMES FROM NOW

 

Worst case scenario:

Sox don't make the playoffs. They win zero games out of the remaining 6 and you say that Theo has overseen the most epic collapse in history. He deserves to get fired, but you acknowledge probably will not until the following season.

--6 UNSUCCESSFUL GAMES FROM NOW

 

Theo will have been with the team for 1458 games but you acknowledge that his reputation and success will be evaluated, in your mind, by somehwhere between 17 and 6 games. That's a small sample size. In fact, that's a sample between 1.1659% and .4115% of all available data.

 

I think his reputation/skills/success is independent of what happens the next few weeks. I think the quality of a GM is the thoroughness with which they assess their talent, work to make things better, try to get younger, use the resources at their disposal, etc., and their overall track record of success. What happens over the next week really should be compared in context to what has happened over the past 9 seasons, IMO.

[example1]

I think the need for pitching is much more critical than you do. Lots of experts were predicting regression by Buchholz this season. I think it remains to be seen hom this broken back will affect hi delivery and effectiveness' date=' and even if fully healthy, we don't know if he can repeat 2010. Lackey is looking more and more like a complete bust, and no one would be surprised if he follows Dice K down the Tommy John surgery road. I would advocate Aceves as a 5th starter or depth/spot starter. I think the Sox need a pitching stud like CJ Wilson, because our current crop of starters can't go deep into games and that is a bullpen killer.[/quote']

 

Do you really think CJ Wilson is a pitching stud? I think he's pretty good, but he's had 2 full seasons at 31 years old. His numbers are attracive (near the elite level over the past 2 seasons, 9th in overall WAR) but I think he's got bust potential written all over him. He would be a great pickup for 4th starter (which I realize you are advocating).

 

Maybe our definition of a pitching stud differs.

[a700hitter]

Best case scenario:

 

Sox win every game for the rest of the season, win world series

--You laud Theo as a genius, the FO and ownership have done it again and deserve ultimate praise. (because it can't be luck)

--17 SUCCESSFUL GAMES FROM NOW

 

Worst case scenario:

Sox don't make the playoffs. They win zero games out of the remaining 6 and you say that Theo has overseen the most epic collapse in history. He deserves to get fired, but you acknowledge probably will not until the following season.

--6 UNSUCCESSFUL GAMES FROM NOW

 

Theo will have been with the team for 1458 games but you acknowledge that his reputation and success will be evaluated, in your mind, by somehwhere between 17 and 6 games. That's a small sample size. In fact, that's a sample between 1.1659% and .4115% of all available data.

 

I think his reputation/skills/success is independent of what happens the next few weeks. I think the quality of a GM is the thoroughness with which they assess their talent, work to make things better, try to get younger, use the resources at their disposal, etc., and their overall track record of success. What happens over the next week really should be compared in context to what has happened over the past 9 seasons, IMO.

Yes, whether he has done a good job vs bad job hinges on how things turn out the next few weeks. You get judged on results. That's what you are not understanding. Based on what you are saying, a team that finshes 12 games out of first every year could argue that you can't judge them based on those 12 games. Similarly, a pitcher that has one bad inning every game giving up 5 runs is a bad pitcher even though he held them scoreless for the rest of the game. Curt Schilling always said that the difference between winning and losing is the execution of 5 or 6 pitches. If you don't execute them, you lose even though you executed most of your other pitchers. You get judged based on results. Fighters that fight great for 10 rounds but suck in the last 2 rounds are never champions. If the Sox finish the fight standing, it is a good job. If they miss the playoffs after spending so much money and having such a big lead, it will be considered a failure. He will not be judged on a small sample size, but on the results at the end of 162+ games. Just like in an election, the results aren't in yet, so we don't know if Theo is a winner or a loser. That's the real world.

[a700hitter]

Do you really think CJ Wilson is a pitching stud? I think he's pretty good, but he's had 2 full seasons at 31 years old. His numbers are attracive (near the elite level over the past 2 seasons, 9th in overall WAR) but I think he's got bust potential written all over him. He would be a great pickup for 4th starter (which I realize you are advocating).

 

Maybe our definition of a pitching stud differs.

I think Texas is a very hard place to be a successful starting pitcher. The heat is so oppressive that most pitchers wilt by August. Wilson has had great stamina and consistency over the last 2 years in Texas. We need guys that can go deep into games. Why do you see bust potential in him?

[example1]

Yes' date=' whether he has done a good job vs bad job hinges on how things turn out the next few weeks. You get judged on results. That's what you are not understanding. Based on what you are saying, a team that finshes 12 games out of first every year could argue that you can't judge them based on those 12 games. Similarly, a pitcher that has one bad inning every game giving up 5 runs is a bad pitcher even though he held them scoreless for the rest of the game. Curt Schilling always said that the difference between winning and losing is the execution of 5 or 6 pitches. If you don't execute them, you lose even though you executed most of your other pitchers. You get judged based on results. Fighters that fight great for 10 rounds but suck in the last 2 rounds are never champions. If the Sox finish the fight standing, it is a good job. If they miss the playoffs after spending so much money and having such a big lead, it will be considered a failure. He will not be judged on a small sample size, but on the results at the end of 162+ games. Just like in an election, the results aren't in yet, so we don't know if Theo is a winner or a loser. That's the real world.[/quote']

 

Yet again we reach an impass.

 

You regularly claim that the team should do everything in its power for a WS. Future health of the team be damned. Yet, having those WS in your pocket doesn't buy ownership any more slack than if they hadn't won it. They have more of them this century than anyone else, and the 2nd most playoff appearances. What does that get them? 6 games to "prove" that they are either "winners" or "losers".

 

That's your real world. It isn't mine. I'm more loyal than that, particularly for those who have a track record of success at the very highest level. If they didn't have the second most wins over that period, or more WS than any other team, or the second most playoff appearances, I wouldn't be as loyal. But they have, and I am. It seems very reasonable to me, and fits my patient personality as well.