2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[MNSoxChief102]

In case anyone is curious on the Sox salary numbers, here's the breakdown from Cot's Baseball Contracts

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dFJHNHQzMXVTdzg2ck40MVMxX21kVEE&output=html

[Spitball]

Aramis Ramirez glove is atrocious. It has always been. They let Beltre go, no way they would consider Ramirez.

 

Youk need to get his butt in shape this winter to get through a season at 3B. This could be his last season in Boston and they will hopefully have Middlebrooks ready to step in. They want to get younger at 3B, not have another Lowell type contract.

 

Ramirez is exactly what the Sox do not want. He is always injured and is a terrible defensive player ( -20 UZR over his career). Offensively, his numbers are enhanced by streaks in which he gets hot. He is no Adrian Beltre.

 

The Sox need to fix their pitching. Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson would be my top choices. Even Edwin Jackson should be a target. As a number three, he would be an upgrade over current options.

[a700hitter]

Salary wise, we'll have quite a bit to work with. Drew alone is $14 million. I think we dump Dice-K somehow as well, freeing up at least a portion of his $10.5 million. Cameron is $7.75 million off the books.

 

That's a total of $26.75 million freed up, assuming we can get send Dice-K packing and only end up paying half his salary next year. Even if he stays, we're still freeing up $21 million off our payroll from this year on those guys alone. Some of that will go towards salary arb guys. The rest will be used to acquire talent at positions of need and to re-sign Pap and possibly Ortiz.

 

Thing to remember about Pap is that he already makes $12 million, so increasing it to $15 million only costs us an extra $3 million on top of what we paid out this year.

Doesn't Scutaro come off the books after this season. Isn't he $8 million?

[MNSoxChief102]

Ramirez is exactly what the Sox do not want. He is always injured and is a terrible defensive player ( -20 UZR over his career). Offensively, his numbers are enhanced by streaks in which he gets hot. He is no Adrian Beltre.

 

The Sox need to fix their pitching. Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson would be my top choices. Even Edwin Jackson should be a target. As a number three, he would be an upgrade over current options.

 

I agree completely.

 

Starting pitching HAS to be the #1 priority, aside from re-signing guys like Pap and Ortiz. I would go hard after Wilson and offer him a big contract. Guy is still relatively young and his arm isn't overworked. Putting him alongside Lester and Beckett would be awesome.

[MNSoxChief102]

Doesn't Scutaro come off the books after this season. Isn't he $8 million?

 

We have an option on him for next year. If we don't exercise it, we'll save $4 million. His 2011 salary was for $5.5 million. The club option in 2012 is for $6 million. Scut's option is for $3 million. If we don't exercise it, the buyout is $1.5 million

[Meh]

We've got plenty of cash coming off the books. If the Sox want to sign both, they will.

 

Papelbon is worth every penny IMO. Ortiz wants to finish his career in Boston and will probably take a bit less as long as we give him more than one year. I'm fine with that given what he means to the franchise.

 

check out my post or cots baseball contracts if you don't believe me...

[Palodios]

We have an option on him for next year. If we don't exercise it' date=' we'll save $5.5 million. The club option is for $6 million. Scut's option is for $3 million. If we don't exercise it, the buyout is $1.5 million[/quote']

 

Your math is off, the savings is 4.5 million. Find a better shortstop on the free agent market for 4.5 million.

[MNSoxChief102]

Your math is off' date=' the savings is 4.5 million. Find a better shortstop on the free agent market for 4.5 million.[/quote']

 

I just edited it.

[MNSoxChief102]

check out my post or cots baseball contracts if you don't believe me...

 

I just posted the link to Cot's. Read my posts and then get back to me

[Meh]

I just edited it.

 

here's cots... https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

 

Your link doesn't have A-Gon's deal on it. Also you have to factor in arbitration

[MNSoxChief102]

here's cots... https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html

 

Your link doesn't have A-Gon's deal on it.

 

What does AGon's deal have to do with us shaving $21-$26 million by dumping Drew, Cameron, and potentially Dice-K's deals?

[Meh]

What does AGon's deal have to do with us shaving $21-$26 million by dumping Drew' date=' Cameron, and potentially Dice-K's deals?[/quote']

 

Your payroll is going to be 150 million(145 if you decline Scutty) before you add anyone... what don't you understand. You are not going to get rid of Dic-K... This isn't playstation or xbox.

[Meh]

assuming we can get send Dice-K packing and only end up paying half his salary next year. Even if he stays' date=' we're still freeing up $21 million off our payroll from this year on those guys alone.[/quote']

 

I still don't understand if you are being serious here. He's not going to be pitching until late August... why would anyone want to pay him to rehab?

[SoxFanForsyth]

What does AGon's deal have to do with us shaving $21-$26 million by dumping Drew' date=' Cameron, and potentially Dice-K's deals?[/quote']

 

Gonzo makes $6.3mm this year. Then he makes $21.9mm next year. That takes up a huge chunk of that.

 

If Theo makes any moves, it will be through trades. The problem is - we see right now how emptying some top tier prospects for a big player. Injuries hurt much worse.

[MNSoxChief102]

Your payroll is going to be 150 million before you add anyone... what don't you understand. You are not going to get rid of Dic-K... This isn't playstation or xbox.

 

Apparently I understand more than you do. Cot's shows us on the hook as it stands right now for $126 million, not including arb guys, of which Ellsbury will be the biggest and the rest will be minimal. Not $150 million by any stretch.

 

Bumping Papelbon's salary up to $15 million only costs us an extra $3 million on top of what we paid him this year, when our salary numbers came out to $163 million. The Luxury tax will likely be north of $170 million. That gives us plenty of money, regardless of whether we move Dice-K or not. And I know it's not a f***ing X-Box... don't be a tool. Oh wait... you're a Yankees fan... guess that makes you one by default

 

As a side note, the Sox have never said they won't go over the luxury tax, just that they don't like to do it. If they can get the right set of players, they'll do it.

[Meh]

Gonzo makes $6.3mm this year. Then he makes $21.9mm next year. That takes up a huge chunk of that.

 

If Theo makes any moves, it will be through trades. The problem is - we see right now how emptying some top tier prospects for a big player. Injuries hurt much worse.

 

you also have to factor in pedo, youk, buchholz, lester having backloaded deals. ellsbury, aceves, alivies, lowrie, bard, etc will be getting bumps in salary too.

[Meh]

Apparently I understand more than you do. Cot's shows us on the hook as it stands right now for $126 million, not including arb guys, of which Ellsbury will be the biggest and the rest will be minimal. Not $150 million by any stretch.

 

Bumping Papelbon's salary up to $15 million only costs us an extra $3 million on top of what we paid him this year, when our salary numbers came out to $163 million. The Luxury tax will likely be north of $170 million. That gives us plenty of money, regardless of whether we move Dice-K or not. And I know it's not a f***ing X-Box... don't be a tool. Oh wait... you're a Yankees fan... guess that makes you one by default

 

As a side note, the Sox have never said they won't go over the luxury tax, just that they don't like to do it. If they can get the right set of players, they'll do it.

 

Really? cause you didn't even post the right link to cots...

 

Ellsbury - $7 million

Salty $2 million

Aceves $3 million

Avilies $2 million

Bard $2 million

Lowrie $1.5 million

Morales 1.5 million

 

That's 19 million. I've even heard Ellsbury could get 8 to 10 million in Arbi after the year he has had. 126 million + 19 million is how much? Anyone? 145... like I said.... 150 million if you pick up Scutaro's option.

 

150 + 15 for Papelbon is 165 million. I know I may need a math teacher to check my math, is there one on this site?!? Or how about someone who passed 2nd grade?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Apparently I understand more than you do. Cot's shows us on the hook as it stands right now for $126 million, not including arb guys, of which Ellsbury will be the biggest and the rest will be minimal. Not $150 million by any stretch.

 

Bumping Papelbon's salary up to $15 million only costs us an extra $3 million on top of what we paid him this year, when our salary numbers came out to $163 million. The Luxury tax will likely be north of $170 million. That gives us plenty of money, regardless of whether we move Dice-K or not. And I know it's not a f***ing X-Box... don't be a tool. Oh wait... you're a Yankees fan... guess that makes you one by default

 

As a side note, the Sox have never said they won't go over the luxury tax, just that they don't like to do it. If they can get the right set of players, they'll do it.

 

Unfortunately you're wrong here man.

 

You look at that $126mm for next year, then you add Pap's $15mm, Ortiz's $10mm, a salary of around $10mm for Ellsbury, and then around $12mm in other arb salaries (the original amounts aren't included in the $126mm).

 

That puts you at $176mm right there alone.

[MNSoxChief102]

you also have to factor in pedo' date=' youk, buchholz, lester having backloaded deals. ellsbury, aceves, alivies, lowrie, bard, etc will be getting bumps in salary too.[/quote']

 

Cot's takes all of the deals in place into account. It's at $126 million before arb guys come into the picture. They'll add at most $20 million to it. That puts us at $146-$150 million. That leaves us at least $20 million to work with. I see where you're going, but I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it out to be... the Sox will work the deals to their favor and find a way to make it happen if they want to get somebody. Just like the Yankees do every year. This team isn't hurting for money. Not by a long stretch.

[MNSoxChief102]

Unfortunately you're wrong here man.

 

You look at that $126mm for next year, then you add Pap's $15mm, Ortiz's $10mm, a salary of around $10mm for Ellsbury, and then around $12mm in other arb salaries (the original amounts aren't included in the $126mm).

 

That puts you at $176mm right there alone.

 

Ellsbury isn't going to get $10 million in arb... he's at $2.5 million now. It will double or maybe go up to $7 million at most this year.

[MNSoxChief102]

Really? cause you didn't even post the right link to cots...

 

Ellsbury - $7 million

Salty $2 million

Aceves $3 million

Avilies $2 million

Bard $2 million

Lowrie $1.5 million

Morales 1.5 million

 

That's 19 million. I've even heard Ellsbury could get 8 to 10 million in Arbi after the year he has had. 126 million + 19 million is how much? Anyone? 145... like I said.... 150 million if you pick up Scutaro's option.

 

150 + 15 for Papelbon is 165 million. I know I may need a math teacher to check my math, is there one on this site?!? Or how about someone who passed 2nd grade?

 

I can count just fine. You're overestimating the salary bumps for the arb guys IMO. Even if we're at $165 as you say, we can and will go over the luxury tax to add someone if it means we'll field a better team next year.

 

And I didn't post the wrong link on purpose... when I went to Cot's that's the one that came up. I used yours after that.

[Meh]

Cot's takes all of the deals in place into account. It's at $126 million before arb guys come into the picture. They'll add at most $20 million to it. That puts us at $146-$150 million. That leaves us at least $20 million to work with. I see where you're going' date=' but I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it out to be... the Sox will work the deals to their favor and find a way to make it happen if they want to get somebody. Just like the Yankees do every year. This team isn't hurting for money. Not by a long stretch.[/quote']

 

I'm not saying they are, but it seems like everyone on here is saying you can afford papelbon, ortiz and aram... where you might not be bale to afford two of them. I don't mean to sound like I'm mad, most of what I say is in a sarcastic tone but it's just simple math here. I call out Yankee fans when they say they want both wilson and darvish just the same.

[Meh]

I can count just fine. You're overestimating the salary bumps for the arb guys IMO.

 

Thank goodness.

 

You just agreed with me on the salary bumps... you even said it would be more 20, to my 19.

 

also you got to add another 2 million for league minium guys like wieland/tazawa, etc since I'm assuming you'll have 3 to 4 guys who are fillers(rookies) on your roster.

[SoxSport]

Oki asked for a trade but couldn't find anyone that wanted him. So he told the Sox management he'd rather stay in Pawtucket where he could pitch consistently than sit in the pen at the big league level. Basically he quit. He'll be gone in the off-season.

 

Too bad the media made no issue of this. This guy was better than a lot of the stiffs they had in the bullpen this year.

Did management have a communications problem with Oki and Dice-K?

 

Another small nail in the coffin.

[MNSoxChief102]

I've said my piece... while I stand corrected on the total dollar amount, I still believe the Sox will be creative and find a way to get the deals done they think they need to improve the club. Just as they always do.

[MNSoxChief102]

Too bad the media made no issue of this. This guy was better than a lot of the stiffs they had in the bullpen this year.

Did management have a communications problem with Oki and Dice-K?

 

Another small nail in the coffin.

 

I'm not sure if you understood it correctly... the Sox wanted to call him up. Oki said no thanks and basically refused to pitch at the MLB level unless we guaranteed him consistent playing time. So he stayed at Pawtucket instead.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ellsbury isn't going to get $10 million in arb... he's at $2.5 million now. It will double or maybe go up to $7 million at most this year.

 

Arbitration is determined using the 40/60/80 rule. It's 40%/60%/80% of FA value.

 

FA value is determined at 4x WAR. So Ells 4 year average WAR, including his injury season, is 3.82. 3.82 * 4 * .6 = 9.18. He and Boras will get that up to $10 easy after this season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ellsbury isn't going to get $10 million in arb... he's at $2.5 million now. It will double or maybe go up to $7 million at most this year.

 

Even if Ells does just get 7mm, they will be at $170 easy after arb increases.

 

Bard hits his first year of arb too. He will get a pretty substantial raise. Aceves hits his first year of arb as well. After the season he's having, he will have a lot of leverage as well.

[Meh]

I'm not sure if you understood it correctly... the Sox wanted to call him up. Oki said no thanks and basically refused to pitch at the MLB level unless we guaranteed him consistent playing time. So he stayed at Pawtucket instead.

 

I guess I didn't think that you could backload papelbon and ortiz's deals. pay them both 10 million this year and papelbon 17 and ortiz 15, in the following years.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox won't be big players this offseason at all in terms of FA signings.

 

They will, however, make a substantial trade for a SP, you can count on that. More than likely a top of the rotation guy. Guy like Felix, J Johnson, Dan Haren, or potentially a middle of the rotation guy like John Danks.