2012 Financials

[AtWork]

Let me preface by saying that I calculated every player's salary by their annual average salary over the length of their contract because that is how they are calculated for the purpose of the luxury tax threshold. All figures are in millions and rounded to to the 100th.

 

Players Under Contract

Gonzalez - 20.71

Crawford - 20.29

Beckett - 17

Lackey - 16.5

Youkilis - 10.31

Matsuzaka - 8.67

Buchholz - 7.49

Pedroia - 6.75

Jenks - 6

Lester - 6

Iglesias - 2.06

Scutaro - 1.5 (cost of buyout)

 

These arbitration estimates are based on the 40/60/80 rule with two exceptions. According to the 40/60/80 rule, Ellsbury would make over $20 million next year and he's obviously not going to. For a comp, I used the $12 million that Josh Hamilton asked for coming off an MVP season and downgraded it to reflect the fact that Ellsbury is in his second year of arbitration, not his third. For Morales, his salary would have been below league minimum, so I simply increased it by 20%.

 

Arbitration Eligible Players

Ellsbury - 10

Saltalamacchia - 5.6

Albers - 4.28

Bard - 2.97

Lowrie - 1.32

Aceves - 0.99

McDonald - 0.88

Morales - 0.51

 

That would give us a salary of $149.83 million going into next year. If you round out the rest of the 40-man with players making an average of 0.50 million a year, that would mean our base salary going into 2012 sits at $159.83 million. The luxury tax threshold in 2012 will be $186 million. If you reserve $5 million for contract bonuses, that leaves us with just over $21.17 million to work with in free agency next year to sign a DH, a starter, a closer, a backup catcher and possibly a right fielder. Some of those arbitration figures look a little high though so that's probably a slightly conservative estimate.

[SoxSport]

I understand Obama is negotiating with MLB about lowering the luxury tax.

The owners have threatened to reduce campaign contributions if he doesn't.

That should do the trick.

 

 

Imagine Pedey making only $6.75 million. There can't be a God.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Well, Pedey making 6 mil does make sense because rookies usually make quite a bit less than that until arb. and certainly aren't guaranteed any year to year stability if they go to arb every year.

 

Nice post, AtWork. That budget picture makes me think it very likely is Ortiz or Papelbon next offseason and not both. I think it's obvious Papi fills more of a need for them. Maybe they find a way though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't see how Salty can go from $750k this year to 5.6mm next year, nor can I see how Albers would go from $875K to 4.28mm.

 

Also on Matsuzaka, I wonder what they're insurance policy is on his contract. They may not have to pay that whole sum.

 

Oh last thing - Gonzo's signed a new, 7/154mm contract, so his AAV is $22/year. I don't think signing bonus is taken out of AAV, but I'm not sure.

[SoxSport]

You have to ask why there isn't a better correlation of pay with performance in MLB.

 

Part of it is the slow salary progression, but part of it, too, is the excessive FA salaries.

Two different salary scales.

That would not work in most other places.

[AtWork]

I don't see how Salty can go from $750k this year to 5.6mm next year' date=' nor can I see how Albers would go from $875K to 4.28mm.[/quote']

 

I explained that I used the 40/60/80 rule for all but 2 arbitration eligible players but that the figures still looked high.

 

Also on Matsuzaka' date=' I wonder what they're insurance policy is on his contract. They may not have to pay that whole sum.[/quote']

 

I'm not sure if he would be eligible considering he may be able to pitch at some point in 2012. And if we was eligible, I'm not sure how it would affect the luxury tax calculation.

 

Oh last thing - Gonzo's signed a new' date=' 7/154mm contract, so his AAV is $22/year. I don't think signing bonus is taken out of AAV, but I'm not sure.[/quote']

 

I attempted to compensate for any signing bonuses or performance bonuses with the $5 million buffer.

[AtWork]

Well, Pedey making 6 mil does make sense because rookies usually make quite a bit less than that until arb. and certainly aren't guaranteed any year to year stability if they go to arb every year.

 

Nice post, AtWork. That budget picture makes me think it very likely is Ortiz or Papelbon next offseason and not both. I think it's obvious Papi fills more of a need for them. Maybe they find a way though.

 

Considering Ortiz will likely cost $8-10 million a year, I don't think it would be worth signing Papelbon to a $13+ million a year contract and either not addressing our starting pitching or going well above the luxury tax threshold.

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

Whether or not we bust the luxury tax this year has to affect ownerships willingness to give Theo the green light to go above it next year, right?

[jacksonianmarch]

Some of their problems will be solved internally. Lavarnway to DH possibly. Doubront/Weiland for 5th starter. They probably bring back Wake for insurance. My guess is they try to resign Paps and Ortiz, but if they walk, there are slim pickins keeping them under the lux tax threshold. Either you go big with Pujols or Fielder, or you stay internal.

[iortiz]

Among Jenks, D-K and Lackey we are clogging around 30 MiUSD just like that (just 5 million less than the entire KC Royals payroll), which summed to those 21 MiUSD available before the luxury tax threshold, you would have around 50 MiUSD that could mean an entire MLB payroll team like The Marlins, The Pirates, The Guardians or The Rays among others; or a set of players like King Felix, Jose Reyes and maybe that young man already signed by the Phillies named Hunter Pence.... What a waste of money, Wow!... Good job Theo!.

[Palodios]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox asked Scutaro to re-negotiate a deal to stay in Boston. The buyout is 1.5 million, the player option is 3 million, and the team option is 6 million. I could see him staying aboard for 4 million (as in, the Sox spent 2.5 million to keep him here).

[AtWork]

Some of their problems will be solved internally. Lavarnway to DH possibly. Doubront/Weiland for 5th starter. They probably bring back Wake for insurance. My guess is they try to resign Paps and Ortiz' date=' but if they walk, there are slim pickins keeping them under the lux tax threshold. Either you go big with Pujols or Fielder, or you stay internal.[/quote']

 

Wakefield has announced that he's retiring after this year, Aceves fills the role he had on this team rather nicely. I suppose it's possible that they have Doubront, Weiland and Tazawa compete for the 5th starter spot. I don't think it's likely that they hand over the DH spot to Lavarnway though. I think they'll make an honest effort to re-sign Ortiz and set a spending limit on Papelbon and let him walk if he wants more. There are a plethora of relievers out there this offseason.

 

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if both Reddick and Kalish are on the roster next year sharing time in RF and the Red Sox release McDonald. It might not be out of spring training, but I don't think either player has a whole lot left to learn at AAA.

[AtWork]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox asked Scutaro to re-negotiate a deal to stay in Boston. The buyout is 1.5 million' date=' the player option is 3 million, and the team option is 6 million. I could see him staying aboard for 4 million (as in, the Sox spent 2.5 million to keep him here).[/quote']

 

I would be all for it. I'm not sure Iglesias is ready and Scutaro is one of our few infielders who can actually play shortstop adequately.

[AtWork]

Also, I'd expect the Red Sox to acquire a starter or two. They never go into the season only 5 deep in the rotation if you think about it. This year they had Wakefield as a 6th starter and they still went out and acquired Aceves and Miller.

[Station 13]

Wakefield has announced that he's retiring after this year.

 

What? Where? When???

[Palodios]

Also, I would pretty much assume Wheeler's $3 million option will be picked up next year. He had a really rough start to the year, but he has a 1.86 ERA since the All-Star game. A bullpen arm of his caliber for a one year deal at that price would not be found anywhere on the FA market.

 

I think they do go over the luxury cap this year. Ortiz is staying in Boston, and I definitely think they'll try to find a good #3 pitcher to close out this rotation, and none of that is cheap.

[AtWork]

Also, I would pretty much assume Wheeler's $3 million option will be picked up next year. He had a really rough start to the year, but he has a 1.86 ERA since the All-Star game. A bullpen arm of his caliber for a one year deal at that price would not be found anywhere on the FA market.

 

I think they do go over the luxury cap this year. Ortiz is staying in Boston, and I definitely think they'll try to find a good #3 pitcher to close out this rotation, and none of that is cheap.

 

That would not be at all surprising, I assumed that no options were picked up for the purpose of calculating how close we were to the luxury tax threshold. When I get a chance, I'm going to try to find some more realistic arbitration figures since they all seem a bit high. Also, I calculated .5 million as a salary for each remaining person on the roster. So each person we sign, you can subtract .5 million from since that amount is already figured into my salary calculation.

 

I don't think the team would be opposed to going over the luxury tax threshold so long as it's only by $10 million or less.

[Station 13]

Also, I would pretty much assume Wheeler's $3 million option will be picked up next year. He had a really rough start to the year, but he has a 1.86 ERA since the All-Star game. A bullpen arm of his caliber for a one year deal at that price would not be found anywhere on the FA market.

 

I think they do go over the luxury cap this year. Ortiz is staying in Boston, and I definitely think they'll try to find a good #3 pitcher to close out this rotation, and none of that is cheap.

 

Wheeler? Francona seems to not like him at all. He hasn't pitch in a week. The only way to know for sure is to use him in close games, which Francona has avoided.

 

His peripherals are better than Aceves. More Ks and less walks.

 

This is why Tito has many of us screaming in game threads, his man crushed for McDonald is disgusting. Are we really going to have the corpse of Jason Varitek in a playoff game when Beckett is pitching too?

[Station 13]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox asked Scutaro to re-negotiate a deal to stay in Boston. The buyout is 1.5 million' date=' the player option is 3 million, and the team option is 6 million. I could see him staying aboard for 4 million (as in, the Sox spent 2.5 million to keep him here).[/quote']

 

They need Scoot back. There's no way I want to see Lowrie playing SS with his zero range.

[Palodios]

Wheeler? Francona seems to not like him at all. He hasn't pitch in a week. The only way to know for sure is to use him in close games, which Francona has avoided.

 

His peripherals are better than Aceves. More Ks and less walks.

 

This is why Tito has many of us screaming in game threads, his man crushed for McDonald is disgusting. Are we really going to have the corpse of Jason Varitek in a playoff game when Beckett is pitching too?

 

Tito may not like him, but re-signing him is an absolute no-brainer. If the organization has to go over Tito's head on that one, they will. He has had an excellent career, will be incredibly cheap, and has been very very consistent-- something that is very valuable in relievers, who as a group tend to vary from year to year.

[AtWork]

It will be interesting to see how they handle shortstop. They could just hand the job over to Iglesias and have Scutaro be the backup, they could have Scutaro start and use Iglesias as the backup to ease him into the role or they could go out and acquire another SS altogether.

 

I also wonder if they'll pursue a righthanded outfielder like Jonny Gomes. If we went with Reddick or Kalish in RF, our entire outfield would be lefthanded.

[AtWork]

Tito may not like him' date=' but re-signing him is an absolute no-brainer. If the organization has to go over Tito's head on that one, they will. He has had an excellent career, will be incredibly cheap, and has been very very consistent-- something that is very valuable in relievers, who as a group tend to vary from year to year.[/quote']

 

If Papelbon walks, it makes it even more of a no-brainer.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That would not be at all surprising, I assumed that no options were picked up for the purpose of calculating how close we were to the luxury tax threshold. When I get a chance, I'm going to try to find some more realistic arbitration figures since they all seem a bit high. Also, I calculated .5 million as a salary for each remaining person on the roster. So each person we sign, you can subtract .5 million from since that amount is already figured into my salary calculation.

 

I don't think the team would be opposed to going over the luxury tax threshold so long as it's only by $10 million or less.

 

IIRC, Team options are included for luxury tax calculations, but player options are not.

[Station 13]

IIRC' date=' Team options are included for luxury tax calculations, but player options are not.[/quote']

 

Players option are included. It's why Beltre's option for $5M was Boras way to circumvent the the luxury by bringing his $10M salary down a bit.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Tito may not like him' date=' but re-signing him is an absolute no-brainer. If the organization has to go over Tito's head on that one, they will. He has had an excellent career, will be incredibly cheap, and has been very very consistent-- something that is very valuable in relievers, who as a group tend to vary from year to year.[/quote']

 

There's no excuse to not give this guy a couple opportunities in big situations. I have no idea why we didn't use Wheeler in the 3rd game of the Twins series instead of Aceves. We had just tied up the game, Aceves had thrown on the 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th (game was on the 10th). Wheeler threw on the 7th, and has only logged 2.1 IP in August. He hasn't allowed an ER since July 15th, yet Francona would rather go with a worn down Lester, followed by a worn down Aceves rather than a fresh Wheeler. So freaking retarded.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Players option are included. It's why Beltre's option for $5M was Boras way to circumvent the the luxury by bringing his $10M salary down a bit.

 

Gotcha. I knew it was 1 of the 2.

[Palodios]

It will be interesting to see how they handle shortstop. They could just hand the job over to Iglesias and have Scutaro be the backup, they could have Scutaro start and use Iglesias as the backup to ease him into the role or they could go out and acquire another SS altogether.

 

I also wonder if they'll pursue a righthanded outfielder like Jonny Gomes. If we went with Reddick or Kalish in RF, our entire outfield would be lefthanded.

 

Definitely count on one of Reddick/Kalish/Ellsbury to be traded next year. I know Ellsbury is a longshot, but I think that if he's not willing to sign with the Sox longterm, at this point he is so valuable, he may be good enough that the Red Sox could get an ace for him in return.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Definitely count on one of Reddick/Kalish/Ellsbury to be traded next year. I know Ellsbury is a longshot' date=' but I think that if he's not willing to sign with the Sox longterm, at this point he is so valuable, he may be good enough that the Red Sox could get an ace for him in return.[/quote']

 

But who are you going to get for Ellsbury? That's why I think he's going to stay. He's made $2.4mm this season. Using the 40/60/80 rule that AtWork uses, here's what I figure.

 

Average WAR over last 3 seasons (Sox have valid argument to use 2010, injury liability) -

 

4.30 average WAR * $4mm = $17.2mm FA Value

 

.40 = $6.87mm

.60 = $10.31mm

.80 = $13.75mm

 

When I think about the teams who would be willing to trade an ace caliber pitcher, I think of teams that are wanting to dump salary.

 

Felix made $16.5mm combined in 10-11 (8.25 AAV). From 2012-2014, he makes $58mm ($19.33mm AAV). I can see the Mariners dishing him this offseason almost certainly. But what would they want with Ellsbury? He only has 2 years of service and he's going to be making around (projected) $24mm over the next two years.

 

I do, however, think that they will trade for a SP. The more I think about it, I could see the Red Sox losing Ellsbury for a guy like Jered Weaver in LAA. If Ellsbury leaves Boston, I think the Angels would be a perfect fit for him. I could see Theo really pursuing that deal.

[Station 13]

Definitely count on one of Reddick/Kalish/Ellsbury to be traded next year. I know Ellsbury is a longshot' date=' but I think that if he's not willing to sign with the Sox longterm, at this point he is so valuable, he may be good enough that the Red Sox could get an ace for him in return.[/quote']

 

Why do people keep thinking Ellsbury will be traded? He's an elite talent at this point. You don't trade talented players such as him while the goals are to win the W.S each year.

He's under control until 2013. Let's worried after 2013. After 2013 Lackey, Beckett are almost gone. Dice-K, Papi, Youk are long gone too. I don't see Youk as a DH. He's not a 30HR guy this team expect out of the DH.

 

They have plenty of money to spend. Let's stop thinking this team is poor. They have the second most financial resources after the Yankees.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Why do people keep thinking Ellsbury will be traded? He's an elite talent at this point. You don't trade talented players such as him while the goals are to win the W.S each year.

He's under control until 2013. Let's worried after 2013. After 2013 Lackey, Beckett are almost gone. Dice-K, Papi, Youk are long gone too. I don't see Youk as a DH. He's not a 30HR guy this team expect out of the DH.

 

They have plenty of money to spend. Let's stop thinking this team is poor. They have the second most financial resources after the Yankees.

 

He's under control through 2013, until 2014. Even better.