2012 Financials

[SoxFanForsyth]

Personally, I think you're brushing off Jacko's arguments a little too lightly. The Sox have talent now that can take over CF and RF (Kalish and Reddick). Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, and Barnes can all still flame out since they're further from the majors. We don't know what our pitching prospects will look like in 4 years. Resigning Ellsbury to $20 mil/year would impact our flexibility in the market to address other needs, especially since we have better-known qualities at the OF than we do at any other position in our organization.

I still want to keep Ellsbury, but I would understand if Theo didn't resign him.

 

I'm not brushing it off at all. Here's how I look at it:

 

Player, First FA Year

 

Lester, 2015

Pedroia, 2016

Buchholz, 2018

Ellsbury, 2014

 

Those are the 4 players which we will be trying to lock up. That doesn't even begin until 2014, so saying that we're going to be in a financial pinch is ridiculous considering we have no idea who most of our farm system will operate between now and 2014.

 

Between now and 2015, when the majority of this starts, the following contracts will come off the books:

 

Name, Amount, Potential replacement

 

Beckett (16mm), Ranaudo

Lackey (17mm), Free Agent, Barnes, Pimental, Britton

Ortiz (13mm), Lavarnway

Drew (14mm), Kalish, Brentz, Jacobs

Matsuzaka ($10mm), FA, Doubront, Weiland

Scutaro (5.5mm), Iglesias, Bogaerts

Youkilis (12mm), Middlebrooks

 

Given, not all of those guys are going to be replaced by the farm system, but what I'm getting at is that while we are going to be signing some guys like Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury to big deals, that's not even going to begin for 3-4 years, and by then our farm system, which is very young right now, will be in line to graduate to the MLB level, which means we won't be replacing the players we lose with high costing FA, but instead with young, cheap players.

 

It's the same as when we were bringing up Youk, Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard, Ellsbury, Lowrie, etc.

[Rdsxmbnt]

No one seems to realize that there has been a significant gap in the farm system. Buchholz debuted in 2007. From 2008-2010, the only player to emerge was Bard, and that will definitely drain on this team's resources.

 

Thats because once the 2005+2006 draft core started to reach the big leagues the team shifted its approach to more HS picks with its top picks.

 

Thus there is a gap, but HSers like Kalish, Reddick (junior college), Anderson, Middlebrooks are starting to approach the majors when college guys would have been ready during that 08-10 gap.

[AtWork]

If Reddick or Kalish take over for the $14 million a year Drew and Iglesias takes over for the $5.5 million a year Scutaro over the next two years, that alone would allow us to pay Lester and Pedroia $23 million a year each and our overall salary would be less. We'll be just fine.

[Rdsxmbnt]

 

It's the same as when we were bringing up Youk, Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard, Ellsbury, Lowrie, etc.

 

We don't know this yet. Really only Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard out of that group were can't miss prospects. There were certainly questions about Youk, Pedroia, Lester, Lowrie, and Ellsbury

[Palodios]

If Reddick or Kalish take over for the $14 million a year Drew and Iglesias takes over for the $5.5 million a year Scutaro over the next two years' date=' that alone would allow us to pay Lester and Pedroia $23 million a year each and our overall salary would be less. We'll be just fine.[/quote']

 

Once again, I must stress that a lot of the Drew/Cameron/Scutaro contracts are already accounted for. A-gon's contract goes up by $15 million, and then Crawford and the Core-Five all get major bumps next year.

[Palodios]

What makes Ellsbury so expendable?

 

Money to value ratio, his will be the least team friendly.

[SoxFanForsyth]

We don't know this yet. Really only Buchholz' date=' Papelbon, Bard out of that group were can't miss prospects. There were certainly questions about Youk, Pedroia, Lester, Lowrie, and Ellsbury[/quote']

 

What I'm saying is that you have to build your team internally, and get pieces externally. The core of the team needs to come from within the organization. I'm not saying that the players listed will have as big of an impact as the 07 class, but I'm saying that over the course of 4 years, we probably will have a significant amount of talent come through our system and have internal promotions rather than FA signings.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Money to value ratio' date=' his will be the least team friendly.[/quote']

 

Agreed, I'd be in favor of trading high on him rather than giving him 15mil+ a season.

 

Idk if this makes any sense for the Mets, but with Kalish being a viable CF option, Id do a Ellsbury for Reyes swap, or try to find a quality young SP

[SoxFanForsyth]

Once again' date=' I must stress that a lot of the Drew/Cameron/Scutaro contracts are already accounted for. A-gon's contract goes up by $15 million, and then Crawford and the Core-Five all get major bumps next year.[/quote']

 

But next year isn't the problem. The problem is in 2014 when Ells is a FA, 2015 when Lester is a FA, 2016 when Pedroia is a FA, and 2018 when Buchholz is a FA.

 

We're fine for the next 3-5 years because we have these players locked up. That was the point of locking them up. By the time their contracts expire, we will have a much better knowledge of who is going to contribute to our team from the farm, and we will have Lackey, Beckett, Youkilis, DiceK, Ortiz, Jenks, Wakefield, Varitek all off the books, all of which can potentially be replaced from within, and whose contracts are valued at around an aggregate $75-80mm. There will be other players who come and go, but regardless, there's a TON of money coming off the books between now and then with an incredibly strong farm system (not yet recognized because it's still very young) that can come up and do the same damage as the farm did in 2007.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Agreed, I'd be in favor of trading high on him rather than giving him 15mil+ a season.

 

Idk if this makes any sense for the Mets, but with Kalish being a viable CF option, Id do a Ellsbury for Reyes swap, or try to find a quality young SP

 

Reyes is a FA this offseason.

[Rdsxmbnt]

What I'm saying is that you have to build your team internally' date=' and get pieces externally. The core of the team needs to come from within the organization. I'm not saying that the players listed will have as big of an impact as the 07 class, but I'm saying that over the course of 4 years, we probably will have a significant amount of talent come through our system and have internal promotions rather than FA signings.[/quote']

 

O im agreeing with you, I just read it wrong because I thought you said the current crop of hitting prospects (Kalish, Reddick, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, etc.) isn't up to par with that group you mentioned to which I would possibly disagree.

[Palodios]

But next year isn't the problem. The problem is in 2014 when Ells is a FA, 2015 when Lester is a FA, 2016 when Pedroia is a FA, and 2018 when Buchholz is a FA.

 

We're fine for the next 3-5 years because we have these players locked up. That was the point of locking them up. By the time their contracts expire, we will have a much better knowledge of who is going to contribute to our team from the farm, and we will have Lackey, Beckett, Youkilis, DiceK, Ortiz, Jenks, Wakefield, Varitek all off the books, all of which can potentially be replaced from within, and whose contracts are valued at around an aggregate $75-80mm. There will be other players who come and go, but regardless, there's a TON of money coming off the books between now and then with an incredibly strong farm system (not yet recognized because it's still very young) that can come up and do the same damage as the farm did in 2007.

 

Sure there is money coming off the books, but there will be money going onto it as well for more long-term team friendly deals, along with several additions to the bullpen, and whatever necessary money needs to be thrown around. What I am talking about is being able to anticipate who will cost what, and which prospects will contibute where, and my conclusion is that Ellsbury will not be part of the long term equation.

[AtWork]

Once again' date=' I must stress that a lot of the Drew/Cameron/Scutaro contracts are already accounted for. A-gon's contract goes up by $15 million, and then Crawford and the Core-Five all get major bumps next year.[/quote']

 

The money coming off the books from Drew, Cameron, Matsuzaka, Scutaro, etc. the next couple of years is more than enough to cover the cost of Ellsbury and Lester's salary increases. Youkilis will likely walk and Buchholz we don't have to worry about for another 6 years.

[Palodios]

The money coming off the books from Drew' date=' Cameron, Matsuzaka, Scutaro, etc. the next couple of years is more than enough to cover the cost of Ellsbury and Lester's salary increases. Youkilis will likely walk and Buchholz we don't have to worry about for another 6 years.[/quote']

 

But it won't cover everything. The amount coming off

[BeepBeepYoureDumb]

We don't know this yet. Really only Buchholz' date=' Papelbon, Bard out of that group were can't miss prospects. There were certainly questions about Youk, Pedroia, Lester, Lowrie, and Ellsbury[/quote']

 

It was always my impression that Lester was considered a much more polished prospect than Papelbon. He was the crown jewel of their system for a while before he came up in '06. He won Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in '05 as a 21-22 year old.

[Dojji]

More heavily projected, yes. Quite possibly more highly regarded, although Papelbon was considered a high caliber starting pitching prospect. More polished, heck no. He had to work pretty dang hard to refine his command to the point it is today and he was topping out at 91 when he came up. although I'm sure the cancer played a huge role in that. Papelbon was much more clearly a big league pitcher in 2006.

 

Before they made a closer with him, Papelbon was very much considered an heir to Schilling and even in the wake of 2006, it was a heated debate whether it was better for the guy to go back into the rotation. And he probably would have done a very good job as a starting pitcher. I often wonder how history would be different if we'd made the other call in '07. Oki probably would have been our closer by May, and he was very, very good that year, but the Gagne bust would have been magnified and I'm not sure we win the Series, even with the better rotational pitching. Going forward every year since we probably would have had a better shot though, which makes it interesting and tough.

[Will617]

I'm not brushing it off at all. Here's how I look at it:

 

Player, First FA Year

 

Lester, 2015

Pedroia, 2016

Buchholz, 2018

Ellsbury, 2014

 

Lester can hit free agency in 2014 if he finishes 1st or 2nd in Cy Young voting from 09-13, which is a real possibility given his talent. But I'm just nitpicking right now.

 

Those are the 4 players which we will be trying to lock up. That doesn't even begin until 2014' date=' so saying that we're going to be in a financial pinch is ridiculous considering we have no idea who most of our farm system will operate between now and 2014.[/quote']

 

That is exactly my point. You can't simply depend on your farm system to continuously churn out talent because it's difficult to predict that kind of quality. If we spend $20 million on Ellsbury, and suddenly our replacement for Youkilis becomes a .200 hitter, we'll lose the flexibility to be adequately prepared to address that. Just because our farm has been good in the past, does not mean it will continue to be good. See: Oakland A's earlier in the decade.

 

Between now and 2015, when the majority of this starts, the following contracts will come off the books:

 

Name, Amount, Potential replacement

 

Beckett (16mm), Ranaudo

Lackey (17mm), Free Agent, Barnes, Pimental, Britton

Ortiz (13mm), Lavarnway

Drew (14mm), Kalish, Brentz, Jacobs

Matsuzaka ($10mm), FA, Doubront, Weiland

Scutaro (5.5mm), Iglesias, Bogaerts

Youkilis (12mm), Middlebrooks

 

And if Middlebrooks doesn't pan out? What if a lot of our other prospects don't pan out (especially since you're including a lot of prospects that aren't projected to amount to the quality of players they're replacing)? Keep in mind that in 2014, a lot of our players will probably be at the start of their decline, so you would need to replace the WAR lost from them with other high-WAR players in other positions, not just MLB-average level replacements. I would like to keep Ellsbury, but I think the possibility that we leave him go to gain flexibility in other roster decisions is much higher than you think it is.

[AtWork]

But it won't cover everything. The amount coming off

 

We have over $70 million coming off the books over the next two years. How much are you expecting us to spend?

[Palodios]

We have over $70 million coming off the books over the next two years. How much are you expecting us to spend?

 

It isn't like that 70 million is being instantly chopped off. From 2011 to 2013, these are the differences in salaries (arb players use your estimates, with a slight increase)

 

Crawford-- 6 million more

Adrian Gonzalez-- 16 million more

Lester-- 6 million more

Pedroia-- 4.5 million more

Buchholz 5 million more

Bard estimated 4 million more

Albers estimated 4 million more

Saltamacchia estimated 6 million more

Ellsbury 10 million more

 

That's 61.5 million just in raises. That's before this team decides if they want to take Youkilis option, before they figure out who their 5th starter is, before they decide if they want to keep Papelbon, or Ortiz, before giving a team friendly contract to the younger guys. That's with losing the majority of their bullpen, and that's with two more years of John Lackey ahead of them, and five more of Carl Crawford.

[AtWork]

It isn't like that 70 million is being instantly chopped off. From 2011 to 2013, these are the differences in salaries (arb players use your estimates, with a slight increase)

 

Crawford-- 6 million more

Adrian Gonzalez-- 16 million more

Lester-- 6 million more

Pedroia-- 4.5 million more

Buchholz 5 million more

Bard estimated 4 million more

Albers estimated 4 million more

Saltamacchia estimated 6 million more

Ellsbury 10 million more

 

That's 61.5 million just in raises. That's before this team decides if they want to take Youkilis option, before they figure out who their 5th starter is, before they decide if they want to keep Papelbon, or Ortiz, before giving a team friendly contract to the younger guys. That's with losing the majority of their bullpen, and that's with two more years of John Lackey ahead of them, and five more of Carl Crawford.

 

Most of those increases have no affect on the amount of room we have under the luxury tax threshold. MLB calculates team salaries according to the average annual value of the contract, and that's how I calculated them in this thread as well. Lester's deal is $30 million over 5 years so every year over the entirety of that contract he will cost us $5 million towards the luxury tax threshold.

[AtWork]

When you calculate our team salary the correct way, we will have $21+ million of luxury tax threshold space cleared up after this season and an additional $28+ million cleared up the year after.

[Palodios]

Most of those increases have no affect on the amount of room we have under the luxury tax threshold. MLB calculates team salaries according to the average annual value of the contract' date=' and that's how I calculated them in this thread as well. Lester's deal is $30 million over 5 years so every year over the entirety of that contract he will cost us $5 million towards the luxury tax threshold.[/quote']

 

The team doesn't pay its players based on the luxury cap numbers. They pay based on actual money. And even so, 40 million of the numbers I stated above will be included in the luxury cap, leaving only a 30 million difference between now and 2013. It also means that any team friendly deals made between now and then will include the average of that contract, instead of the lower number of the contract into luxury cap numbers.

[AtWork]

I did a little more research and here are some more realistic arbitration figures.

 

Saltalamacchia will likely make $3 million at most. The record for the highest amount a catcher has recieved in their first year of arbitration is $3.9 million by Russell Martin in 2009. That's a $2.6 million difference.

 

I could not find a comparisson for Matt Albers but based on his poor career numbers an previous compensation, which are both considered in arbitration, I'd be surprised if he made more than $2 million. That's a $2.28 million difference.

 

For Daniel Bard, I used Mike Adams as a comparrison. In his first year of arbitration eligibility, he asked for $1.2 million and settled on $1 million. I'll go with the higher figure and estimate that Bard makes $1.2 million. That'sa difference of $1.77 million.

 

The other figures are probably pretty accurate. But the above adjustments would leave us with approximately $28 million in luxury tax space to work with.

 

Any ideas on how we could spend that money?

[AtWork]

The team doesn't pay its players based on the luxury cap numbers. They pay based on actual money.

 

The entire point of this thread was to determine how much space we had to work with in regards to the luxury tax threshold.

 

And even so' date=' 40 million of the numbers I stated above will be included in the luxury cap, leaving only a 30 million difference between now and 2013. It also means that any team friendly deals made between now and then will include the average of that contract, instead of the lower number of the contract into luxury cap numbers.[/quote']

 

That's not true. I had already calculated salary raises for Gonzalez and all our arbitration eligible players into my calculation and came to the conclusion that we'll have approximately $28 million in luxury tax space to work with this offseason (once I adjusted the arbitration figures to be more realistic).

 

Following the 2012 season, I'll assume we pick up Youkilis' $13 million option would account for a $2.67 increase in salary. But we'll have $8.67 million coming off the books from Matsuzaka, $6 million from Jenks and $1.5 million from Scutaro's buyout which I figured into 2012's salary. The luxury tax threshold will also go up by $8 million giving us an additional $21.48 million to work with. Let's say we spend $5 million of that on arbitration case raises so that's actually 16.48 million.

 

Following the 2013 season (which is when Ellsbury will become a free agent) I'll assume we pick up Lester's $13 million option. That will increase salary by $7 million. But we'll also have $13 million coming off the books from Youkilis' option and the luxury tax threshold will increase another $8 million, freeing up more space.

[Palodios]

Fair enough. It does raise the question-- how much of that money will be allotted for Papelbon/Ortiz? If they have 28 million to spend, will 20-24 million on those two guys limit what they can do?

[AtWork]

Fair enough. It does raise the question-- how much of that money will be allotted for Papelbon/Ortiz? If they have 28 million to spend' date=' will 20-24 million on those two guys limit what they can do?[/quote']

 

I think they'll let Papelbon walk and attempt to sign Ortiz to a cheaper annual salary at two years. That will leave them room to address their starting pitching and upgrade their bench. Perhaps if the price is reasonable they could sign a Juan Cruz or George Sherrill. Or they could trade for a set up guy and move Bard to closer.

[Station 13]

For Daniel Bard, I used Mike Adams as a comparrison. In his first year of arbitration eligibility, he asked for $1.2 million and settled on $1 million. I'll go with the higher figure ?

 

Bard will get paid as a premium reliever, as he should. I expect around $3M, and that's still low for what he brings.

 

Remember that fat f*** Jenks got $12M to pitch the 7th inning. No way Bard will settle for a $1M pay next year.

[AtWork]

Bard will get paid as a premium reliever, as he should. I expect around $3M, and that's still low for what he brings.

 

Remember that fat f*** Jenks got $12M to pitch the 7th inning. No way Bard will settle for a $1M pay next year.

 

We're talking about a 1st year arbitration eligible player, not a free agent.

[Palodios]

If they didn't try to lock Bard up (In April/May, so no luxury tax implications) they would be mighty foolish.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The fact that we're pressing the luxury tax makes it even more important to go after any offseason moves via trade. I don't think Theo will make any significant moves for position players this offseason, but I would be surprised if he didn't trade for a high caliber SP. Maybe not elite, but high caliber. It's going to be interesting to see if the Cardinals exercise Wainwright's option after his injury as well. That could sway the FA market big time.