The Catcher and SS positions

[Dojji]

No' date=' you need to analyze the tradeoff. There is not a great shortage of good run producers. There is a shorage of good run producers who can adequately field certain positions on the field. You don't just put a good run producer out there over a good defender arbitrarily. You weight the expected RS/RA for each and put the guy out there who you think gives you the most value.[/quote']

 

Is that why we won 2 world series rings with Manny and a relatively weak run prevention unit, but a highly potent lineup, and none with this new refocus on run prevention?

 

The difference in value between a run scored and a run prevented is easily less than one standard deviation. As a general rule the idea is to be good at both, that means sacrificing neither for the other, and building up your roleplayers in a way that minimizes the weaknesses of your stars.

 

So let's take the obvious way to bring this back to the topic at hand: Iglesias v. Lowrie. If Iglesias can't hit, but is a master run preventer, while Lowrie is average defensively or a tick below but is one of the better shortstop bats in the American League, which one do you try to win with for the next 4 years?

 

The answer is that you can win with either one, and it comes down to which one you trust to play better to their weakness, and what you have to build around them to shore up the problem area -- for example, when we covered Scutaro's total lack of anything resembling range, with Pedroia at second and Beltre at third last year, we neutralized his biggest problem and allowed his "ok for a shortstop I guess" level bat to keep him in lineups.

 

I favor Lowrie over Iglesias based on where I see the team as a whole. I don't think we need a fantastic run preventer at SS at the moment, nearly as much as we need that bat in the lineup. Pedroia, and to a lesser extent Youkilis, can help protect Lowrie from being too exposed defensively. If we didn't have Pedroia and needed the shortstop to cover for a defensive liability at second, that probably changes the equation radically.

[ORS]

Is that why we won 2 world series rings with Manny and a relatively weak run prevention unit' date=' but a highly potent lineup, and none with this new refocus on run prevention?[/quote']

What are you babbling about here? I think you are trying to play a game of "gotcha", but this doesn't offer a contrary method to what I posted, so it's chock full of failure. I said you analyze the tradeoff. Manny in his prime was such an offensive force that the Flash couldn't produce enough defensive value to be a better value than Manny, hence, he was the LF. It's not like the team is arbitrarily choosing all glove guys. At his best Saltalamacchia looks like a bad defensive catcher, but they are keeping him around to see what he can to with his bat that they believe in.

 

The difference in value between a run scored and a run prevented is easily less than one standard deviation. As a general rule the idea is to be good at both, that means sacrificing neither for the other, and building up your roleplayers in a way that minimizes the weaknesses of your stars.

Quick, tell what the standard deviation is for this discussion. No, don't define it, tell me the numerical value. I think you are trying to impress with buzz words. Don't tell me it's less than one std-dev when you have no clue what the std-dev is. That said, of course it's within one std-dev, the difference in value is very small. However, I was only showing the mathematical accuracy of the statement that a run prevented is worth more than a run scored. The rest of this paragraph is a philosophical statement, an opinion of what "you" would do, which in no way makes my statement any less accurate.

 

So let's take the obvious way to bring this back to the topic at hand: Iglesias v. Lowrie. If Iglesias can't hit, but is a master run preventer, while Lowrie is average defensively or a tick below but is one of the better shortstop bats in the American League, which one do you try to win with for the next 4 years?

 

The answer is that you can win with either one, and it comes down to which one you trust to play better to their weakness, and what you have to build around them to shore up the problem area -- for example, when we covered Scutaro's total lack of anything resembling range, with Pedroia at second and Beltre at third last year, we neutralized his biggest problem and allowed his "ok for a shortstop I guess" level bat to keep him in lineups.

 

I favor Lowrie over Iglesias based on where I see the team as a whole. I don't think we need a fantastic run preventer at SS at the moment, nearly as much as we need that bat in the lineup. Pedroia, and to a lesser extent Youkilis, can help protect Lowrie from being too exposed defensively. If we didn't have Pedroia and needed the shortstop to cover for a defensive liability at second, that probably changes the equation radically.

If things remain status quo, it's Lowrie hands down. Iglesias doesn't look like he's going hit at all right now. Lowrie can hit while playing average D. It's a no brainer. As more information comes to light, I reevaluate and go from there.

[Will617]

Is that why we won 2 world series rings with Manny and a relatively weak run prevention unit, but a highly potent lineup, and none with this new refocus on run prevention?

 

The difference in value between a run scored and a run prevented is easily less than one standard deviation. As a general rule the idea is to be good at both, that means sacrificing neither for the other, and building up your roleplayers in a way that minimizes the weaknesses of your stars.

 

So let's take the obvious way to bring this back to the topic at hand: Iglesias v. Lowrie. If Iglesias can't hit, but is a master run preventer, while Lowrie is average defensively or a tick below but is one of the better shortstop bats in the American League, which one do you try to win with for the next 4 years?

 

Random thoughts -

1. After you get to the playoffs, winning the WS involves a lot of luck.

2. I think there's a limit to run prevention - the resources that you have to commit in order to prevent a run starts to rise as you prevent fewer runs. Eventually, you start to reach a place where more of the runs become unpreventable. So, practically speaking, defense is still important, but you shouldn't use it as the only way to construct teams (see 2010 Mariners). I don't think it's an issue of scarcity so much as it is an issue of diminishing returns. Similarly, there's probably an upper limit to the runs that you score.

3. Iglesias is nowhere near Lowrie yet (and may not be in the future) - his only offensive value comes from his ability to make contact, he doesn't have good plate discipline or power. There probably will be a time when Iglesias is more cost-efficient (and those more valuable in a per-dollar sense), but I feel like Iglesias won't ever reach Lowrie's level in terms of total value.

[Palodios]

Varitek tonight

 

2 CS,

1-3, HR, 2 RBI

Caught an amazing 1 run Beckett start.

 

Hard to argue with that.

[SCM33]

Varitek tonight

 

2 CS,

1-3, HR, 2 RBI

Caught an amazing 1 run Beckett start.

 

Hard to argue with that.

 

Nope.

 

Ive rode Salty all season, and hes starting to turn things around as well.

 

Both catchers are hitting the ball well.

 

I still think that there is something to say about Variteks knowledge and defensive abilities. Becketts season thus far is a far cry from last year throwing to Vmart (who I wanted to be re-signed)

 

Before tonight, Beckett had a 1.38 ERA this season over 52.1 Innings with a 3.69 K to BB ratio while allowing hitters a .171 BAA and .230 OBP% Thats pretty insane.

[a700hitter]

Nope.

 

Ive rode Salty all season, and hes starting to turn things around as well.

 

Both catchers are hitting the ball well.

 

I still think that there is something to say about Variteks knowledge and defensive abilities. Becketts season thus far is a far cry from last year throwing to Vmart (who I wanted to be re-signed)

 

Before tonight, Beckett had a 1.38 ERA this season over 52.1 Innings with a 3.69 K to BB ratio while allowing hitters a .171 BAA and .230 OBP% Thats pretty insane.

Varitek + Salty = 3 HRs

Russell Martin 9 HRs

[Dojji]

Varitek + Salty = 3 HRs

Russell Martin 9 HRs

 

You won't hear any argument over that from here, quite frankly I wanted Martin and took some ridicule for my stance on the subject. I knew he hadn't been playing up to his talent level and had more in the tank, frankly so did the Dodgers, in retrospect his release was clearly more of a financial move than a roster move.

[Dojji]

Quick, tell what the standard deviation is for this discussion. No, don't define it, tell me the numerical value. I think you are trying to impress with buzz words. Don't tell me it's less than one std-dev when you have no clue what the std-dev is.

 

I don't have to know precisely what the SD is to know that a difference this incremental is well within it. That leaves the distinction easily within any conceivable margin for error and the concept as a whole a rather petty one.

 

That said, of course it's within one std-dev, the difference in value is very small. However, I was only showing the mathematical accuracy of the statement that a run prevented is worth more than a run scored.

 

But you haven't done that. You've established a principle based on one approach (pythag) that is based entirely in pure theory and even there doesn't take into consideration the obvious confounding variables of scarcity and diminishing returns which apply on either end of the spectrum. At the end of the day which you should focus on, runs scored or runs allowed, is almost entirely dependent on where the team is.

 

At the end of the day the only reason this would even be interesting is in a "run prevention vs. run scoring" framework of discussion and that's counterproductive to begin with. You sacrifice neither for the other -- as you rightly point out, you need to be good at both, and roster policy needs to reflect a determination to shore up any major weaknesses in either respect where possible (bearing in mind obviously that, with human players in the mix, you'll never find a perfect alchemy of the two).

[Dojji]

Has Saltalamacchia turned the corner? That's ANOTHER bomb from him.

[SoxSport]

Ev-ry thing's comin' up roses... 3 cheers for Salty and CC.

 

Tito is at his best when all he has to do is sit in the dugout and chew on pumpkin seeds.

 

Still managed to waste 3 pitchers today.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Ev-ry thing's comin' up roses... 3 cheers for Salty and CC.

 

Tito is at his best when all he has to do is sit in the dugout and chew on pumpkin seeds.

 

Still managed to waste 3 pitchers today.

 

lol what

[Dipre]

Ev-ry thing's comin' up roses... 3 cheers for Salty and CC.

 

Tito is at his best when all he has to do is sit in the dugout and chew on pumpkin seeds.

 

Still managed to waste 3 pitchers today.

 

Bro, seriously.....give it a rest.

[boston22407]

wtf ,

[VA Sox Fan]

Scutaro shines during rehab

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff June 6, 2011 05:23 PM

 

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

Marco Scutaro was 3 for 4 with a double and a run scored for Class AAA Pawtucket in today's 11-3 victory at Durham.

 

Scutaro was 5 for 11 in three games for the PawSox and is expected to rejoin the Red Sox tomorrow in New York. RHP Scott Atchison will be sent back to Pawtucket at that point.

 

The Sox had gone with an extra pitcher on Sunday when they sent Josh Reddick down.

 

Darnell McDonald is destroying the International League in his rehab. He was 2 for 4 with two doubles and two RBIs today. He is 8 for 19 with six runs scored, five extra-base hits and 11 RBIs in six games. That's a .421/.522/.895 line.

[VA Sox Fan]

Lowrie seeking MRI on sore shoulder

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff June 7, 2011 05:21 PM

 

 

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

NEW YORK — Red Sox shortstop Jed Lowrie hopes to get an MRI on his sore left shoulder in the coming days to find out what, if anything, is wrong.

 

Lowrie was injured in a collision with teammates Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury chasing a pop up in Detroit on May 29. He has started five of the six games since but is out of the lineup tonight.

 

"My shoulder started to feel better. I started feeling it my back a little more. My back was there from the beginning, the shoulder started feeling better then everything sort of plateaued. No better, no worse," Lowrie said. "It hasn't got any better. I'm not overly concerned, but at the same time it hasn't gotten any better.

 

"Hopefully another day and we'll figure out what's going on."

 

Lowrie said he feels the pain constantly.

 

"It never really really goes away," he said. "Kind of a dull ache the while time. I haven't really felt anything too sharp. More like a dull ache."

 

Plans are in the works to get an MRI. "I think it benefits everybody," he said. "There's no reason not to do it, just for everybody's peace of mind."

 

Lowrie described the pain as being in the area of his scapula, which is the area behind the shoulder.

**********************

[Dojji]

By the by, Salty's OPS is now in the .730 range. Not great, but for a catcher, more than acceptable.

 

He's also caught about a quarter of stolen base attempts (24%) which is acceptable. Not great, but people aren't running on him at will.

 

He's starting to prove Theo right. Kinda fun to watch him mature.

[a700hitter]

Lowrie seeking MRI on sore shoulder

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff June 7, 2011 05:21 PM

 

 

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

NEW YORK — Red Sox shortstop Jed Lowrie hopes to get an MRI on his sore left shoulder in the coming days to find out what, if anything, is wrong.

 

Lowrie was injured in a collision with teammates Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury chasing a pop up in Detroit on May 29. He has started five of the six games since but is out of the lineup tonight.

 

"My shoulder started to feel better. I started feeling it my back a little more. My back was there from the beginning, the shoulder started feeling better then everything sort of plateaued. No better, no worse," Lowrie said. "It hasn't got any better. I'm not overly concerned, but at the same time it hasn't gotten any better.

 

"Hopefully another day and we'll figure out what's going on."

 

Lowrie said he feels the pain constantly.

 

"It never really really goes away," he said. "Kind of a dull ache the while time. I haven't really felt anything too sharp. More like a dull ache."

 

Plans are in the works to get an MRI. "I think it benefits everybody," he said. "There's no reason not to do it, just for everybody's peace of mind."

 

Lowrie described the pain as being in the area of his scapula, which is the area behind the shoulder.

**********************

He's very delicate, and still has not proved himself to be an everyday player.

[a700hitter]

By the by, Salty's OPS is now in the .730 range. Not great, but for a catcher, more than acceptable.

 

He's also caught about a quarter of stolen base attempts (24%) which is acceptable. Not great, but people aren't running on him at will.

 

He's starting to prove Theo right. Kinda fun to watch him mature.

But Russell Martin is a constant reminder that Theo was wrong.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

But Russell Martin is a constant reminder that Theo was wrong.

 

No he isn't. The only thing he's really got on Salty is 4 more HR's and like 8 more RBI. Otherwise they haven't been much different

[a700hitter]

No he isn't. The only thing he's really got on Salty is 4 more HR's and like 8 more RBI. Otherwise they haven't been much different

He's far better than Salty. It's not even close.

[Palodios]

Martin is broken. With the Red Sox's medical staff, he would have never left the minor leagues. Even with whatever drugs the Yankees are putting in him, I see no reason to expect him to continue this production. Salty is atleast healthy.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

He's far better than Salty. It's not even close.

 

No, he isn't. Look it up. The only thing you could use to try and validate that statement is the fact that Martin was good in the past. He's different now. He started off hot and everything has caught up with him and he's now basically at Salty's level, and could probably decline even more by the end of the season. I mean come on, he's injured. The most important part of his body is injured, and even before that he was declining every season since his 2nd season. All signs point to the opposite of "far better than Salty".

[a700hitter]

No' date=' he isn't. Look it up. The only thing you could use to try and validate that statement is the fact that Martin was good in the past. He's different now. He started off hot and everything has caught up with him and he's now basically at Salty's level, and could probably decline even more by the end of the season. I mean come on, he's injured. The most important part of his body is injured, and even before that he was declining every season since his 2nd season. All signs point to the opposite of "far better than Salty".[/quote']We'll have to see how they end up. Martin shot down Ellsbury at second with a howitzer throw last night. Neither of our catchers could have made that throw.

[a700hitter]

No' date=' he isn't. Look it up. The only thing you could use to try and validate that statement is the fact that Martin was good in the past. He's different now. He started off hot and everything has caught up with him and he's now basically at Salty's level, and could probably decline even more by the end of the season. I mean come on, he's injured. The most important part of his body is injured, and even before that he was declining every season since his 2nd season. All signs point to the opposite of "far better than Salty".[/quote']Other than Batting Average, Martin exceeds Salty in every statistical category. Yes, he is wearing down, but that is because Girardi plays him almost every game.

[Palodios]

Other than Batting Average' date=' Martin exceeds Salty in every statistical category. Yes, he is wearing down, but that is because Girardi plays him almost every game.[/quote']

 

Health isn't a statistical category:lol:

[a700hitter]

Health isn't a statistical category:lol:

If Martin broke down, we still would have had Salty in the minors.

[Palodios]

If Martin broke down' date=' we still would have had Salty in the minors.[/quote']

 

Salty doesn't work as a backup. It took him a full month to get out of the gutter, handle the pitching staff, and not look completely worthless against the running game. Right now we're starting to see flashes of what we could have, and I don't think we would have seen that if he had much more time on the bench. I'm not fully convinced he's turned the corner, but he definitely has improved with time.

[a700hitter]

Salty doesn't work as a backup. It took him a full month to get out of the gutter' date=' handle the pitching staff, and not look completely worthless against the running game. Right now we're starting to see flashes of what we could have, and I don't think we would have seen that if he had much more time on the bench. I'm not fully convinced he's turned the corner, but he definitely has improved with time.[/quote']Bench? No, I would have had him as the starting catcher in Pawtucket as insurance. Tek would still have been backup, getting enough time to keep Martin's legs fresh.

[ORS]

But, would the improvement we've seen have happened if he got stashed in AAA for another year? That didn't work for Texas. I think he may have needed the consistency and continuity of play at the MLB level to gain the improvement he's shown this year (if the improvement is actually real and not just his latest hot streak). In the long run, if the improvement is real, it was probably worth the rough start to the year.

[a700hitter]

But' date=' would the improvement we've seen have happened if he got stashed in AAA for another year? That didn't work for Texas. I think he may have needed the consistency and continuity of play at the MLB level to gain the improvement he's shown this year (if the improvement is actually real and not just his latest hot streak). In the long run, if the improvement is real, it was probably worth the rough start to the year.[/quote']The improvement might have been delayed, but we would have had a superior catcher in the majors, and the Yankees really would have been suffering at the catching position. Win, win, delayed improvement for Salty. I could live with that.