Clay Buchholz

[yeszir]

What can we expect out of him this year?

 

I just read this article: http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/columns/story?columnist=lundblad_jeremy&id=6180752 which argues he basically got lucky with defense last year. I thought this table was particularly compelling:

 

[table] PLAYER|ERA|xFIP|Diff|ERA in Next Season

'04 Al Leiter|3.21|5.20|1.99 |6.13

'10 Clay Buchholz | 2.33 | 4.20 |1.87 | ?

'08 Daisuke Matsuzaka | 2.90 |4.70 |1.80 | 5.76

'09 Jair Jurrjens | 2.60 |4.34 |1.74 |4.64

'02 Tom Glavine |2.96 |4.60 | 1.64 | 4.52

[/table]

[yeszir]

Well I suck at using my own forum....I don't remember how to use tables properly

 

Got it, finally

[bsox0407]

I actually believe that with the highly upgraded Defense from last year he could get lucky again. Having a GG at 3 of the 4 infield positions is a great asset plus having a GG in the outfield in Crawford. If we can Keep the team on the field Buchholz may have a repeat season.

[Palodios]

I can see a low to mid 3 ERA from him. He got lucky with defense? That's ridiculous. Of the 8 defensive positions, 5 of them will see an significant upgrade this year.

 

I also saw Buchholz as one of the players that just wasn't comfortable with Farrell, and it already sounds like he's getting along much better with Young.

[Sox]

he was a bit lucky last year, & he did say that a few days ago, but I don't expect an ERA higher than 3.5, or less than 15 wins, he did pitch at 2010 level in September 2009.

 

what I expect from him is 3.2 ERA, 18 wins, 200 IP. of course if he performs at last year's level with this offense, he could win 22+ games, last year he won 17 games when he actually missed 5 starts with Daniel Nava & Darnell McDonald as his offense.

[SoxSport]

Looked good tonite against mostly Yankee regulars for 3 innings.

[bsox0407]

Looked good tonite against mostly Yankee regulars for 3 innings.

 

He was a little shaky in the second and the third.

[Youk Of The Nation]

What can we expect out of him this year?

 

I just read this article: http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/columns/story?columnist=lundblad_jeremy&id=6180752 which argues he basically got lucky with defense last year. I thought this table was particularly compelling:

 

[table] PLAYER|ERA|xFIP|Diff|ERA in Next Season

'04 Al Leiter|3.21|5.20|1.99 |6.13

'10 Clay Buchholz | 2.33 | 4.20 |1.87 | ?

'08 Daisuke Matsuzaka | 2.90 |4.70 |1.80 | 5.76

'09 Jair Jurrjens | 2.60 |4.34 |1.74 |4.64

'02 Tom Glavine |2.96 |4.60 | 1.64 | 4.52

[/table]

 

I have to agree with Palodios, despite his offensive avatar. The defense is almost certainly going to show a dramatic increase in competence this season. At worst, his stats dip slightly but still stay at an elite level or he turns in a nearly identical season. At best, he is even better than last year, wins the Cy Young and cures every form of cancer without turning it into a Will Smith movie.

[Palodios]

I'm just taking this avatar for a spin. You know, see how it feels? I'll change it sometime tomorrow.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox defense took a turn for the worse in the OF last yr, but their infield defense was better through the first half of the season than it is right now. Youk to 3b is a significant dropoff from Beltre and AdGon to Youk is a lateral move. As of right now, Scutaro is the SS and Pedroia is the 2b, something that didnt change for the first half of the season

[Sox]

He was a little shaky in the second and the third.

 

considering Francona told him not to throw his best stuff against the Yankees, he looked good, he was just getting ready for the season.

[jacksonianmarch]

He told him not to throw his best stuff? That isnt what a manager will say. He'll say to work on his fastball location, or his change, or work in a few more breaking pitches. He wouldnt ever say, just throw it over and see what happens. Spring Training is all about working back into shape. And that involves working on something new every day.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I agree with Jacko on this one.

[Palodios]

Not everyone can pitch like Bartolo Colon in spring training

[redsoxrules]

He wont have the same year as last year but he wont suck either . I see him sporting a 3.50 ERA witch is still excellent

[Sox]

He told him not to throw his best stuff? That isnt what a manager will say. He'll say to work on his fastball location' date=' or his change, or work in a few more breaking pitches. He wouldnt ever say, just throw it over and see what happens. Spring Training is all about working back into shape. And that involves working on something new every day.[/quote']

 

he didn't exactly tell him not to throw his best stuff, he just told him he didn't want the Yankees to get too many looks at Buchholz, I read the article somewhere on the internet a few days ago, I think Tito also cancelled his start against the Yankees next time, he's gonna let someone else start.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Is this the article you are referring to Sox?

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2011/03/04/clay-buchholz-doesnt-hold-anything-back-against-yankees/

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

So from that article what I got was Francona didn't want him throwing his best so the Yankees didn't get a taste of what will happen in the regular season but did it anyways?

[Sox]

Buchholz didn't say he did it anyway, the article implied that he was so good that it looks like he didn't hold back.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

“I was thinking of it the complete opposite way. I wanted to throw all my pitches" Buchholz

[snydersminipretzels]

I think he'll strike more people out this year.

[example1]

Last season could end up being a blessing for Buchholz. He was clearly working on allowing people to put his pitches in play and the results with that approach can be variable. If he had experienced a 4.20 ERA after pitching as he did (which was at times dominant) it could have been dejecting.

 

Now, I think we're talking about a pitcher who is naturally a strikeout pitcher, who has some of the best stuff in baseball (FB velocity was consistently very high last year) who now has the confidence to pitch to contact, which is something he lacked previously.

 

If he can get his swagger back as a swing and miss pitcher he can be more aggressive early in counts and resort to allowing contact if he falls behind.

 

I hope for good things for Clay in the future.

[SoxSport]

Buchholz looked pretty good against NY for 3 innings. I hope they extend him after April 5th, along with AdGon.

[TeddyBallGame9]

Buchholz lucky? I hardly think so. To me, he will soon be the ace of the staff. If you get and ERA of 3.50 or less today, you're on heck of a pitcher and I, too, see him real close to the 3.50.

[jacksonianmarch]

His numbers point to his ridiculous ERA as being "lucky". I still think he settles in as a 3.50ERAish pitcher, which is still top notch

[SoxFanForsyth]

For the most part, pitchers typically seem to split the difference between their ERA and FIP the following year. Lester 2008 ERA 3.21, FIP 3.64. 2009 ERA 3.41, FIP 3.15. 2010 ERA 3.25, FIP 3.13. I can see Lester being right around a 3.15 to 3.20 ERA guy this year.

 

Having said that, there was a huge gap in Buch's ERA and FIP (1.31 points), so I'll lean a bit on the heavy side here and say he'll probably be around a 3.30 or 3.35 ERA guy this year with around 16-18 wins. With our offense, and the improved bullpen, even a 3.50 ERA is worth 15+ wins.

[Bredsox]

Buchholz was good last year, I dont care what anyone says. He has nasty stuff

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I don't think anyone will argue that he was good last year. I think what they are discussing is whether he will be successful this year.

 

Welcome to the forum btw.

[a700hitter]

He got trashed by the Marlins today for 10 runs.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/03/live_updates_re_13.html

[Palodios]

5 unearned runs today, yikes, bad for Buch, bad for the defense.

 

Note to self: pick up Mike Stanton onto fantasy team.

 

On the bright side, Salty has 8 TB today-- a homer and two doubles.