Buchholz willing to talk Extension

[Dojji]

Would definitely be interested in a Lester type extension.

 

"I think that would definitely be a base model for it — numbers-wise, security reasons, I think every player with less than three years of service time, that’s what they strive for," said Buchholz. "I’m not saying I’m as good as Lester or I deserve what he got, but just from the other guys who signed their deal in the past year or so with the same service, I think that’s definitely a good starting point if there ever was one."

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/2179831/buchholz-eyes-lester-type-extension

 

FanGraphs is on board.

 

The Red Sox should be as eager as Buchholz to work out an early extension. While there is always risk in signing young pitchers, Buchholz is worth the gamble. He was previously the team’s No. 1 prospect, and last year he started to deliver on that promise. Locking up Buchholz now would ease up the Sox pitching situation a bit, too. In 2014 the team will pay John Lackey, Josh Beckett, and Lester a combined $44 million, while, if the terms of the contract reflect Lester’s, Buchholz will make just under $8 million.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/giving-buchholz-lesters-extension/

 

 

I am too. As a starting place for discussion, Lester's extension sounds right, and I'm glad the kid is willing to be open about his desire to stick around. A lot of players like to keep their cards really close to the vest on whether they want to stay or go.

[Station 13]

I'm sure Theo would love to get this out the way and announced it later. Get Bard on it too. Both will be arbitration eligible following the season.

[a700hitter]

He's had one really good season. I'd be a little patient and wait to see if he can repeat his success.

[EXman369]

He's had one really good season. I'd be a little patient and wait to see if he can repeat his success.

 

I agree not saying he wont repeat but i would atleast wait untill the end of this year and see what kind of numbers he puts up on the year

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

He's had one really good season. I'd be a little patient and wait to see if he can repeat his success.

The Lester deal is a good deal though. This isn't quite the same as us blowing our load early and spoonfeeding Beckett that abortion of a contract.

[example1]

He's had one really good season. I'd be a little patient and wait to see if he can repeat his success.

 

The longer you wait the more he costs.

 

I would also argue that Buchholz has had numerous good seasons, just all but one of them have been on the minor league level where he was one of the best in the game. If he's willing to take less than Lester did and stick around for another 6 years I'd say get it done. If he has another season like 2010 then they will have to pay quite a bit more.

[Dipre]

I remember similar criticism when details of the Lester deal came out (diony specifically) and how'd that turn out?

 

Even if Bucholz regresses to the point where he's a 2.5- 3 WAR guy, he'd live up to a contract with a similar framework to Lester's, whereas if he keeps up (or improves) on his level of production, then he becomes that much more expensive.

 

Strike while the iron is hot, i say.

[a700hitter]

I remember similar criticism when details of the Lester deal came out (diony specifically) and how'd that turn out?

 

Even if Bucholz regresses to the point where he's a 2.5- 3 WAR guy, he'd live up to a contract with a similar framework to Lester's, whereas if he keeps up (or improves) on his level of production, then he becomes that much more expensive.

 

Strike while the iron is hot, i say.

I thought Lester signed after 2009 after putting up 2 very solid major league seasons.

[Dipre]

Lester signed his extension after his breakout 2008 season,before the beginning of 2009, which is actually eerily similar to Buchholz' 2008.

 

In fact:

 

Lester stats before signing his extension: 59 GS, 3.81 ERA, 6.65 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 3.81 ERA.

 

Clay Bucholz stats up to now: 62 GS, 3.68 ERA, 6.97 K/9, 3.80 BB/9.

 

Extremely comparable numbers. Bucholz has a significant margin of error to significantly outproduce that contract regression-wise. As a 3.0 WAR guy (certainly attainable) making six mill per, he would be underpaid given the current financial structure of the MLB.

 

Strike while the iron is hot, i say. (Version 2.0)

[Youk Of The Nation]

Do it.

[example1]

I think there's every reason to think Buchholz will increase his K numbers like Lester did too. His MiLB K numbers were really good, as were his K numbers when he began his career in MLB (if I remember correctly). He moved away from the K when he started throwing more hittable and better pitches. He still has another level to improve and I think he's got the tools and stuff to do so. Sign him now, or half way through the season. The sooner the better, IMO.

[a700hitter]

Lester signed his extension after his breakout 2008 season,before the beginning of 2009, which is actually eerily similar to Buchholz' 2008.

 

In fact:

 

Lester stats before signing his extension: 59 GS, 3.81 ERA, 6.65 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 3.81 ERA.

 

Clay Bucholz stats up to now: 62 GS, 3.68 ERA, 6.97 K/9, 3.80 BB/9.

 

Extremely comparable numbers. Bucholz has a significant margin of error to significantly outproduce that contract regression-wise. As a 3.0 WAR guy (certainly attainable) making six mill per, he would be underpaid given the current financial structure of the MLB.

 

Strike while the iron is hot, i say. (Version 2.0)

My recollection was mistaken. I thought they waited one more season to extend Lester. They should probably lock this down.

[italstallianion]

If Beyonce taught me anything, it's that if you like it, you should put a ring on it. Lock him up!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lester signed his extension after his breakout 2008 season,before the beginning of 2009, which is actually eerily similar to Buchholz' 2008.

 

In fact:

 

Lester stats before signing his extension: 59 GS, 3.81 ERA, 6.65 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 3.81 ERA.

 

Clay Bucholz stats up to now: 62 GS, 3.68 ERA, 6.97 K/9, 3.80 BB/9.

 

Extremely comparable numbers. Bucholz has a significant margin of error to significantly outproduce that contract regression-wise. As a 3.0 WAR guy (certainly attainable) making six mill per, he would be underpaid given the current financial structure of the MLB.

 

Strike while the iron is hot, i say. (Version 2.0)

 

I'm all for locking up Buchholz. Having him and Lester as our 1-2 punch for years to come is music to my ears. If Ranaudo turns out to be a monster as well, that could potentially push Beckett and Lackey to be our 4-5 in the later years of their contracts too.

 

Initially, I had a slight gripe because of the advanced metric stats of Buchholz, but then I compared Buch's and Lester's in their break out years (Lester 2008, Buch 2010).

 

Lester - FIP 3.64, K/9 6.50, BB/9 2.82, BABIP .297, LOB% 76%

Buch - FIP 3.61, K/9 6.22, BB/9 3.47, BABIP .261, LOB% 79%

 

Those are much, much more comparable than I thought they were. I say lock him up. I hear a lot of doubters say "Oh his FIP was a full point higher than his ERA". Ok. Well. When your ERA is 2.33, fine, tack another point on for next year, if Buch comes out and posts a 3.2 or 3.3 ERA, he's still a premier pitcher in the AL.

 

Buch has the stuff to become a 8 to 9 K/9 guy, just like Lester did, too.

[BSN07]

Get it done!

 

Won't expect anything to get done before April for LT purposes. Between then and the end of the season we could be looking at announcement of contract extensions for Agon and Buchholz

[Palodios]

If you compare his results to Beckett's/Lackey's, and his costs to Beckett's/Lackeys... even if he doubles his ERA, he's still a bargain. This is a no-brainer FO, get it done.

[jacksonianmarch]

Buch said that a Lester extension would be a starting point, not an ending point. That being said, the kid has had 1 season of being a good pitcher and one partial season where he showed glimpses. I think the FO will wait on this one for maybe a couple months into the season to see if he regresses at all. But if I were in Theo's shoes, I would be talking to his agent about extending him now, cause he is only going to get more expensive

[jacksonianmarch]

If you compare his results to Beckett's/Lackey's' date=' and his costs to Beckett's/Lackeys... even if he doubles his ERA, he's still a bargain. This is a no-brainer FO, get it done.[/quote']

 

2 bad contracts doesnt justify another possible bad contract. I think the sox should do it, dont get me wrong, but I dont think you can justify a contract extension with Buch by comparing him to Lackey or Beckett

[Palodios]

A 5/30 contract for a guy who has shown ace potential. Its a no brainer.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. I am just saying that comparing him to Beckett in terms of worth is irrelevant at this point, especially since he isnt even arb eligible yet

[SoxFanForsyth]

Buch said that a Lester extension would be a starting point' date=' not an ending point. That being said,[b'] the kid has had 1 season of being a good pitcher and one partial season where he showed glimpses[/b]. I think the FO will wait on this one for maybe a couple months into the season to see if he regresses at all. But if I were in Theo's shoes, I would be talking to his agent about extending him now, cause he is only going to get more expensive

 

As Dipre pointed out,

 

Lester stats before signing his extension: 59 GS, 3.81 ERA, 6.65 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 3.81 ERA.

 

Clay Bucholz stats up to now: 62 GS, 3.68 ERA, 6.97 K/9, 3.80 BB/9.

 

Those are extremely comparable. And Buchholz has said "I'm not saying I'm as good as Lester" but that the contract is what he is looking for. Even if the Sox went 5/35 or 6/42, that would be a huge, HUGE bargain.

 

I say lock him up immediately. If he wants to stay with Boston (and who wouldn't after this offseason, and having Gonzo, Youk, Pedroia, Craw, Lester, Bard, and Ellsbury tied up or under team control for years), I say go ahead and tack Buchholz's name onto that list.

 

It's deals like Lester's that enables us to go drop $300mm on two other players over 7 years each and stay competitive and around the CBT threshold.

[yeszir]

Pretty sure I'm preaching to the choir but yes, this is a no brainer.

[SoxSport]

This one is a well-timed no-brainer for Epstein. You want this guy extended now. Or make that after April 5th, so it doesn't count against this years' cap. Same as AdGon.

 

The Cardinals, by the way, did the Red Sox a favor not signing Pujols now for funny money--which might have put ideas in the head of AdGon's agent. Setting the bar at ARod's Steinbrenner contract is ridiculous--nobody else can pay that kind of money to an over-30 player. And Pujols knows it.

[boy racer]

It's been said countless times in this thread before (I'm assuming), but it's going to be beyond beneficiary for the team to re-sign him. He is making himself a big part of the lineup and will better that this season.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

It's been said countless times in this thread before (I'm assuming)' date=' but it's going to be beyond beneficiary for the team to re-sign him. He is making himself a big part of the [b']lineup[/b] and will better that this season.

 

I think you mean rotation right? If I'm wrong my bad and welcome to talksox.

[italstallianion]

He could be part of the base stealing lineup.

[boy racer]

I think you mean rotation right? If I'm wrong my bad and welcome to talksox.

 

Oof, good catch. Yes, rotation is what I meant.

[Station 13]

Theo comment on this, any deal to take place Buchholz must surrendered 1 FA year plus another with club option.

[jacksonianmarch]

That might complicate things. But we will see. Theo said that for the player to get some security, the team must get something back

[Palodios]

I don't see how it will. It makes sense. It seems like a lot of teams this year have been buying out their players' arbitration years, and not getting anything, which makes no business sense whatsoever.

 

Plus, Lester's deal was at the same point in the arbitration process too, so if Buchholz is willing to do a similar deal, that would include the extra FA year + the option.