Could Che-Hsuan Lin be a factor in the bigs next year?

[Dojji]

What I see in Lin is a possible OBP bat with wheels and elite all around defense. Seems destined for a So Taguchi kind of career at the moment, depending on whether his on base ability translates to the bigs. He's also one of the few RHH outfielders we have above A ball who can play all 3 positions and are also prospects.

 

So I'm kinda curious, where we're just so lefthanded in the outfield right now, whether that might start sounding attractive to people if Cameron goes down and the alternative is either calling up Nava or having 4 LHH OF's. He's got a year of AA under his belt so developmentally speaking he may be "in range," and as a defensive 5th OF could probably serve immediately, depending on what you needed and whether a D-first player with an OBP + speed offensive build and No Power Whatsoever could provide it.

 

Please don't respond as if I'm calling this guy a potential starter next year. I just want to know whether people here think he's in range to help if we need a defensive bench guy or a righthanded speed hitter.

 

Secondary question: what do you expect from this guy as a big leaguer, and does he have enough offensively to possibly break out of the "future bench player" mold he's kinda in right now?

[SCM33]

No.

 

Im sure he will do great as a roster filler/4th OF on a AA team though.

[Dojji]

Reactionary much? I mean we are talking about a 22 year old who already has MLB gold glove level defensive ability. He can reach the majors on that alone, especially if he can string together a decent OBP against big league pitching. He's getting it done in the high minors at a very young age, so this *is* a possibility. Very high caliber speed on the basepaths too, especially once he gets it refined. Could easily be a 30-40 SB guy just based on what we've seen out of him in the minors already.

 

For reference, his SB rates are about the same as Jacoby Ellsbury's were at the same level and age. Actually strike that, he's been progressing through the system one year younger than Ellsbury, but still, close enough. IF he can learn to shoot the gaps you're looking at a very good ballplayer here.

 

Personally I see him cameo'ing here over the next couple years, then being traded to some team that needs a franchise caliber defensive CF and leadoff man (which is, like, almost every team) but I guess YMMV.

[Spudboy]

He has to learn to hit.

[jacksonianmarch]

He might be a 4th OF type in sept when rosters expand

[Rdsxmbnt]

I agree with Jacko that he's probably just a 4th OF or late inning replacement next year

 

But in the future I like his potential. He was only 21 in AA last year and has great defense and very developed plate discipline (72 walks to 63 Ks). It's really going to depend on how the power develops since right now it is very pedestrian. But we'll see, I think it could develop if he puts on some weight and ages a little bit.

[Dojji]

As long as he can hit it over the third baseman's head, he's exactly the kind of player that can get away without having a ton of power.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here's my problem with Lin. He's never shown an ability to hit for a good average in the minors, meaning he probably won't hit for anything higher than .260 in the bigs. And he has above average speed/basestealing ability, but it isn't enough of a standout trait to overcome his low avg/power combo. Plus, for Boston, they need a right handed platoon mate who can give them 60 games worth of production from the right side seeing as they are so left handed, and Lin doesn't look like that kind of player. His big plus, though, is his age. Meaning he might just open up and take one aspect of his game to the next level. For me, that's his avg. For a kid with plus speed to not hit for avg in the minors, that's a bad sign. Seeing as speedsters typically beat out a lot of hits that others don't, meaning that his contact skill is probably a minus right now. 2011 is crucial for him. If he hits to a .260 avg again (as his career avg suggests) then he will probably be dealt

[a700hitter]

No.

[BSN07]

Dojji we are going to be able to make a table for you pretty soon to go along with Jacko's

[mvp 78]

I like his skillset, but he just can't hit. No chance.

[example1]

As far as I can tell from everything I've read, the guy has never hit a ball hard since coming to the US. I love his tools and his skill set and think that he could be the Jose Iglesias of CF if he can develop even a decent bat. Unfortunately, Jose Iglesias can play at SS but he can't play in CF. He needs to do SOMETHING offensively to be productive.

 

That said, he could be trade bait or a longterm project (which he already is). I'm not ready to give up on him, but I expect absolutely nothing out of him in 2011 or 2012.

[Dojji]

I dunno guys, I recognize that there isn't a lot of present power there, but the guy has elite wheels. I don't see why he couldn't at least become a Gregor Blanco/Brett Gardner/Scott Podsednik type. With his speed in the field and on the basepaths that's all he'd really need to be. And that OBP is hard to argue with as well.

 

There's a whole category of players with no power who play regularly in CF because they can get on base and run, and those are his best tools. Bout all he needs to do I'd say to be a productive big leaguer somewhere, is get it over the third baseman's head with regularity and learn how to be a good dink-and-dunk singles hitter. His raw speed is a match for Ellsbury's according to what I've read and seen out of him, or nearly so. Easy 40-50SB speed in a good year at any rate. He has the right build to be a fairly one-dimensional but solid leadoff CF type. If we didn't already have an at least slightly better one with some proven MLB experience more people than I would be talking about this guy in that role.

 

This guy will see big league playing time. A player with his ability to put up a good at bat and his baserunning speed, plus the D, that's an attractive package to put on the bench -- at least. He's young for his level so I don't worry TOO much about tools, he should pick up at least some gap power as he matures physically, and the other stuff, the more advanced fine-tuning stuff like working the count, pitch recognition, bat control, stuff that Josh Reddick might not ever develop, Lin already has that in spades. He's just waiting to fill out his frame with a little extra muscle and learn to square the ball up a little more -- a kid who can put up a .380 OBP with no power in the high minors can't be missing the ole sweet spot by THAT much.

 

Frankly I'm actually excited about the kid, if not as a Boston player, then as a trade piece to a National League or AL West team. He's got a bit further to go, but it's all in the physical maturity department, not so much actual ball skills. And he's already ready to play as a LIDR and pinch runner even if he takes no further steps forward -- which at his age, level of development, and level of skills refinement I consider highly unlikely.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gardner put up solid AVG numbers through his minor league career

[Dojji]

He was also a college pick rather than an international signee like Lin, and is old for his leve while Lin is very young. In fact he was as old when he was drafted as Lin is right now playing in AA ball.

 

Gardner was an example of a certain skillset in the majors that Lin might wind up with, that's his only relevance to this thread.

 

And for the record, no he didn't. He was solid at it, but he wasn't an excellent contact hitter. He was what Lin is trying to become -- a "put up a good at bat, get on base, and run" type. His relevance here is that players of that type can be successful.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gardner is faster and a better basestealer. The thing is, you are comparing a kid with good speed to guys with elite speed and elite basestealing instincts. Gardner stole 238 bases in 388 minor league games. Plotted out over a 140 game season, that's 86 steals per year. Now obviously, he missed some time with various ailments, but that's the rate you are talking about. Compare that to Lin, who is at 102SBs in 395 games for a 140 game rate of 36. And it isnt like he is getting better as a basestealer, he only stole 26 in 2010 and 2009. This is what you are doing. You are projecting something onto Lin that he truly isnt. He's a guy with a good glove, good speed, above average patience, abysmal power and below average contact skills. A player with that skill type will be passable at SS. An OFer with that skill set is a pinch runner and 5th OFer at best in the bigs. And there are a bunch of players who "project" to hit for power. I have read no recent reports on Lin that assume he will have any power at all. Now, he is young, which is the good news. The bad news is that he hasnt shown one iota of hitting skills outside of his eye. If that doesnt improve, he doesnt make it out of the minors. He isnt a guy I would be putting into any big league conversations right now. He needs a lot more work, and although he has 3 of the 5 tools (speed, arm, glove), the other 2 are more important for the position he plays

[Dojji]

Lin's speed is plus caliber. He's not quite in Ellsbury's or Crawford's league, but he's easily the third fastest player in the Sox system. And would probably be THE fastest player in most other teams' systems.

 

Gardner stole that many bases largely because he was on a different trajectory. He was a college pick out there to prove that NYY needed to take him seriously. BOS already takes Lin seriously. Once again we get back to the fact that Gardner was far more polished when he hit the NYY farm system at age 21 than Lin was when he was signed as a 17 year old. Lin is at the same age now than Gardner was when he was playing in A-ball.

 

And again, you're trying to take a very specific comparison and try to stretch it out as if I was making a broader point. Why do people here keep trying to do that anyway? Comparing the two straight up, like you try to do AND I TRIED VERY SPECIFICALLY NOT TO DO, just doesn't work.

 

The fact is that there is a type of player out there that doesn't hit for much power, focuses on getting on base, plays centerfield, and tends to lead off. If you don't like using Brett Gardner that's fine, I can use about 6-7 other examples of varying effectiveness. The ur-example of this group of players is Ichiro, I hasten to state I don't think Lin is going to be as good as Ichiro but he's sort of the archetype. The ideal model if you will.

 

The whole point being, he doesn't have to do much more than bat .270 and keep working the at bat the way he does to be useful offensively as a starting player, and even if he can't even do that, he's still valuable on the bench.

 

I'd say Lin's median outcome at the moment is somewhere in the Juan Pierre range. Could go up, could go down. For some people that's a good player, for some it isn't. It's a question of what they value.

[jacksonianmarch]

Juan Pierre comp? You mean the guy who has a career AVG of .298 and has stolen 60+ bases three times? Yeah, good comp Dojji....j/k

[Dojji]

I stand by my assertion of a Pierre comp and believe that it is reasonable. Lin has that kind of speed and has picked up a lot of polish very quickly for a Taiwanese signee. His defense is also far better than Pierre's.

 

It'll come down to him making a little progress in the contact department, but the guy puts on very good at bats so it's hard not to see where it come from IMHO.

 

And sure, when Pierre entered the minors he was also more polished than Lin. Like Gardner he was a pick out of college, not an international signee, and his growing pains happened by and large in amateur ball while Lin has had to do a lot more growing as a pro. When I comp to Pierre what I'm looking at is age of readiness and similar tendencies statistically at the plate (speed + limited power + good plate discipline). Since there's no such thing as a perfect comp, there are some distinctions, but I consider them less important than the similarities atm.

 

Also Lin has played one level higher than Pierre did at the same age in his short minor league career. Food for thought.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, it will come down to him making huge progress in the contact department. Why do you always pick the guys who are either too old for their league or who have a fatal flaw? I have already said that he is young and obviously can develop, but the initial question posed was whether he can be a "factor" in the bigs in 2011. He's a long way off from even having an ETA since his contact and power skills are in the minus category and he's an outfielder. If he couldnt hit to a solid average as a 21 yr old in AA, what makes you think his bat will carry him to the bigs as a 22 yr old?

 

Now all prospects arent linear, some fizzle out, some get a cup of coffee and others reach their potential. Guys like Lin I would set aside and say "we'll see." He hasnt shown nearly enough in the minors to warrant a big league spot, but he's young enough to where he might develop it. Regardless, the idea of him in the bigs in 2011 is very far fetched.

[Dojji]

No it's not. He really doesn't have to develop that much to have utility as at least a bench player in the very near future and his contact has been improving steadily each year since he entered the league, despite advancing rapidly and being very young for his level. His hitting discipline has been steadily very good since 2008 and his contact is catching up.

 

I'm not saying he's gonna become a superstar, but becoming a solid below average to average starting caliber CF in the next year and a half is not that unfathomable.

 

The guys you're comparing Lin to were college guys who had more years of amateur ball at a better level of competition than Lin. I don't think it's that unfathomable that a guy who puts up at bats of the consistent kind of quality Lin has done picks up a bit of power as he hits his mid 20's, and since he sees the ball well and is heralded for having very good batspeed I really doubt the AVG will ever dip seriously below .270 again. For a young guy who hasn't really filled out yet, he does a good job at the plate and I see absolutely no reason not to project improvement there considering he's exhibited steady improvement each of the prior seasons. And I still stand by that Juan Pierre comp because if it wasn't for the fact that if we have Ellsbury and Kalish we'd be ETA'ing Lin about the same time Pierre debuted -- the latter third of his age 22 season.

 

In all likelihood the guy's probably tradebait, but he's good tradebait, of a kind that can actually fetch quality assets. And for a laugh, I will point out that he's one of our only high minors RHH OF prospects, so his chances to get to the bigs earlier than next year aren't THAT farfetched.

[a700hitter]

Doji, the answer is no. It is as simple as that.

[jacksonianmarch]

you just put solid and below average next to each other. Seriously Dojji, I dont know why I bother.

[Dipre]

And people call me stubborn. Wow.

[Dojji]

you just put solid and below average next to each other. Seriously Dojji' date=' I dont know why I bother.[/quote']

 

Yeah I could have done that better.

 

I was talking about slightly below average offense with the redeeming feature of very good speed, because that's about how I rate Pierre. Weak slash stats, but better than it looks because of the speed. Combined with the defense that's still a "solid" package, even though I got ahead of myself and wound up leaving some words out.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pierre is WORLDS better in terms of basestealing instinct and speed. Or he was anyway. Regardless, you are comparing, once again, a kid with promise but a MAJOR flaw in his game to guys who have more tools than he does