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Spelling Relief: A closer look at the Red Sox' crowded competition for bullpen spots.


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Posted
By Alex Speier

 

Will quality beget quantity?

 

That appears to be the Red Sox’ hope when it comes to rounding out their bullpen for the 2011 season. The team already appears to have five spots filled, with closer Jonathan Papelbon joined by setup men Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler standing as a shutdown right-on-right option and Tim Wakefield operating in a swing role.

 

Assuming that the Sox operate with a seven-man bullpen, that leaves the team with two vacancies to sort out during spring training. That will be no small task.

 

The Sox have invited 12 non-roster pitchers to big league camp, while featuring an additional eight pitchers on their 40-man roster who don’t have guaranteed big league jobs for the start of the season. (That does not include Alfredo Aceves, whom the Sox signed to a $650,000 major league deal on Tuesday.)

 

Clearly, the Sox will select one and perhaps two left-handed pitchers to round out their big league roster. There will be six left-handers competing for the job of being a lock-down left-on-left pitcher (if the pitcher can also stymie right-handers, the Sox would not object), while the other pitchers in big league camp will be right-handers who face what appear to be fairly daunting odds, in that — assuming the Sox’ core group of relievers remains healthy — the righties will be competing for no more than one open relief spot.

 

So, who are these pitchers? The Sox will feature an eclectic group of established and highly successful big leaguers, journeymen and pitching prospects. With apologies to Jason Bergmann, Brandon Duckworth, Matt Fox, Tony Pena Jr., Clevelan Santeliz and Randy Williams, here is a look at 15 of the pitchers who will be in big league camp without any guarantee of a job at the big league level in the coming year.

 

THE LEFT-HANDERS

 

FELIX DOUBRONT

Age: 23

Throws: Left

Status: 40-man roster

Options remaining: 1

2010: 12 games, 25 innings, 4.32 ERA, 8.3 SO/9, 3.6 BB/9

2011 contract: Team control

Doubront made a strong impression in three starts and nine relief appearances, starting out nearly a batter an inning in 25 innings of work. In the middle of the year, he unveiled a solid curveball to go with his low-90s fastball and swing-and-miss changeup.

 

His stuff played up in impressive fashion out of the bullpen, and he attacked the strike zone aggressively, striking out 13 and walking just two in his 9 2/3 relief innings. He was also tremendous against lefties, who hit just .189 with a .225 OBP and .351 slugging mark against him. Interestingly, of the 23 curveballs he threw to lefties, just three were put in play — all grounders. Lefties were 0-for-9 against the pitch.

 

Both general manager Theo Epstein and manager Terry Francona said repeatedly during the offseason that the young left-hander is ready to be a major league contributor now, and they made no secret of their belief that he could be a meaningful bullpen contributor.

 

That said, if the Sox view him as having greater long-term value as a starter — perhaps even this year as a rotation depth option — then they could send him back to Triple-A to keep him on a regular turn of the rotation.

 

RICH HILL

Age: 30 (turns 31 in March)

Throws: Left

Status: Minor league deal

2010: 6 games, 4 innings, 0.00 ERA, 3 SO, 1 BB

2011 potential major league salary: $580,000

Hill features a dazzling curveball that he can employ in different fashions. It is particularly effective as a potential left-on-left weapon. Last year, in a brief September cameo with the Sox, Hill held lefties to a 1-for-8 mark with a pair of strikeouts. In his career, lefties have a .216 average against him, though his command inconsistencies have allowed southpaws to forge a .327 OBP against him.

 

ANDREW MILLER

Age: 25

Throws: Left

Status: Minor league deal

2010: 9 games, 32 2/3 innings, 8.54 ERA, 7.7 SO/9, 7.2 BB/9

2011 potential major league salary: $1.3 million

Coming out of the University of North Carolina, when he was the sixth overall pick in the 2006 draft, his high-90s fastball, devastating breaking stuff and rangy, 6-foot-7 frame resulted in comparisons to Randy Johnson. Unfortunately for Miller, thus far the Big Unit comparisons have been most apt for the initial stages of Johnson’s career, when severe command woes raised questions about whether the pitcher could ever emerge as effective.

 

The Marlins essentially cut bait with Miller — a key to the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers — following a 2010 season in which he suffered woeful command while allowing more than two baserunners per inning. The Sox are hopeful that, given the right instruction, he might be able to rediscover the college delivery (and stuff) that made him such a tantalizing prospect a few years ago.

 

Miller features a fastball/slider/changeup mix. While there was little that he could take from last year, when throwing strikes, he was able to get bad contact from right-handers on his changeup (.217 average, .261 slugging) and from left-handers on his slider (.178 average, but with a .455 slugging mark).

 

Everyone agrees that Miller’s development was hindered by being rushed to the majors. He is at a crossroads, hoping to salvage his potential. The Sox, meanwhile, are hoping to maximize the yield on that potential. As such, it would be surprising if, even with a strong spring, he were to open the year anywhere but Pawtucket.

 

That said, it will be interesting to see whether the Sox employ him out of the bullpen or starting rotation if he does end up in Triple-A. The Sox view his most likely 2011 big league contributions as a reliever, so they might well be inclined to have him work in the bullpen in the minors as well.

 

HIDEKI OKAJIMA

Age: 35

Throws: Left

Status: 40-man roster

Options remaining: 3

2010: 56 games, 46 innings, 4.50 ERA, 6.5 SO/9, 3.9 BB/9

2011 contract: $1.75 million

In a way, Okajima is a more extreme version of Reyes. However, his decline has been more gradual and steady. He produced several career-worst marks in 2010, including ERA, strikeouts per nine, walks per nine, innings and appearances.

 

While he has seen his performance get progressively worse against right-handed hitters in each of his major league seasons, he actually enjoyed a reasonable measure of success against lefties in the second half of last year. After the All-Star break, lefties hit .206 with a .270 OBP and .206 slugging mark against him. That offers some grounds for optimism by the Red Sox that he can enjoy some bounceback.

 

DENNYS REYES

Age: 33 (34 in April)

Throws: Left

Status: Minor league deal

2010: 59 games, 38 innings, 3.55 ERA, 5.9 SOs/9, 5.0 BB/9

2011 potential major league salary: $900,000 salary, up to $500,000 in bonuses

From 2006-09, Reyes was among the most effective left-handed specialists in the game. His 2.42 ERA was second only to Billy Wagner among left-handed relievers (min. 100 games). Against left-handed hitters, he ranked among the best in the game in opponent batting average (.206, 12th), OBP (.281, 15th) and slugging percentage (.259, 2nd).

 

It is often said that a pitcher’s results stem first and foremost from his fastball command. That being the case, one need not look far to figure out why Reyes’ 2010 season ran counter to the rest of his career.

 

He faced 84 lefties, throwing roughly the same number of fastballs (157) and breaking pitches (155). Of those fastballs, just 58.5 percent were strikes (whether called strikes, swinging strikes, foul balls or balls in play). The result? Lefties hit .343 with a .511 OBP and .457 slugging mark when Reyes’ fastball was the decisive pitch of an at-bat.

 

That represented a contrast with the 2009 season, when Reyes was more reliant on his heater against lefties (throwing 218 fastballs, compared to 178 breaking balls) and had 61.9 percent of them produce strikes. Lefties did not have a single extra-base hit against him, as he produced a line of .231/.333/.231 against his fastball.

 

Reyes — whose fastball last year averaged just over 90 mph, very much in line with his velocity in previous years — may have been, in part, the victim of weird luck. Against lefties last year, he was hammered for a .307 average, .409 OBP, .453 slugging mark and .862 OPS. His line against righties was .177/.288/.194/.481.

 

But his batting average on balls in play (a statistic that tends to fluctuate in unpredictable fashion) against lefties was .396, while his BABIP against right-handers was .190. Those marks were well off of his career norms of a .310 BABIP against lefties and .325 mark against righties.

 

If luck and his fastball command return, then he represents a pitcher with a proven track record of shutting down lefties.

 

THE RIGHT STUFF? RIGHT-HANDED OPTIONS FOR THE BULLPEN

 

MATT ALBERS

Age: 28

Throws: Right

Status: 40-man roster

Options remaining: None

2010: 62 games, 75 2/3 innings, 4.52 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9

2011 contract: $875,000

The product of San Jacinto Junior College (where Roger Clemens began his college career), Albers spent the last few years in the AL East with the Orioles, having been traded by Houston to Baltimore in the Miguel Tejada deal.

 

Albers has never been a dominant reliever, but he is intriguing as a pitcher who elicited boatloads of grounders last year. Of the 241 balls in play against him last year, 56.8 percent were grounders. By comparison, Justin Masterson — widely considered as extreme a groundball pitcher as there is in the majors right now — had a 57.8 percent groundball rate on balls in play.

 

However, he has a relatively low strikeout rate and a relatively high walk rate, elements that do him few favors.

 

Albers has similar splits against both lefties and righties: Lefties have a .281/.372/.434/.806 mark against him, while righties have marks of .281/.354/.408/.762.

 

Albers is the lone pitcher in the bullpen competition who is on the 40-man roster but lacks minor league options.

 

SCOTT ATCHISON

Age: 34 (turns 35 in March)

Throws: Right

Status: 40-man roster

Options remaining: 1

2010: 43 games, 60 innings, 4.50 ERA, 6.2 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9

2011 contract: $454,000

Atchison was a terrific find for the Red Sox, and he emerged as a surprisingly important member of the bullpen. The Sox appreciated the fact that he was a strike-thrower who maintained poise regardless of the situation.

 

Atchison enjoyed far more success against right-handers (.220 with a .271 OBP, .374 slugging mark and .645 OPS) than left-handers (.290/.353/.486/.839). That said, he could be more than a one-trick pony, since his slider is a swing-and-miss weapon against lefties when he’s able to bury it down and in. (Atchison got more misses from lefties (23) on his slider than righties (17).)

 

That said, when he makes mistakes, they tend to get hammered, as evidenced by his 1.4 homers per nine innings. His strikeouts per nine were also a career low.

 

While he was one of the most important members of the Sox bullpen last year, in some ways, he would appear to be in the same position he was last spring: fighting for a job in the majors. The acquisition of Dan Wheeler could render Atchison redundant unless he is able to perform against lefties.

 

MICHAEL BOWDEN

Age: 24

Throws: Right

Status: 40-man roster

Options: 1

2010: 14 games, 15 1/3 innings, 4.70 ERA, 7.6 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9

2011 contract: Team control

Bowden endured a transitional year with Pawtucket and the Red Sox in 2010, having worked to smooth out his delivery and then getting shifted from the rotation to the bullpen. He continued working out of the bullpen in Venezuela this winter, and it now appears that his most likely path to the majors is as a reliever.

 

Somehow, as a 24-year-old, Bowden is sometimes a forgotten man in the Red Sox system. Even so, there were elements to build on from his time in the majors last year, most notably the fact that he attacked the strike zone out of the bullpen and elicited swings and misses.

 

The issue for Bowden is that his fastball doesn’t have much movement, and he tends to work up in the zone, resulting in high fly ball rates (and a lot of extra-base hits).

 

He generates deception against right-handers, getting swings and misses on 13.4 percent of his pitches against hitters from that side of the plate. He had swings and misses on just 5.3 percent of his pitches against southpaws, however. Unsurprisingly, he had a significant disparity in his splits against lefties and righties, with a .379/.438/.586 line against lefties and a .273/.294/.515 line against righties.

 

ROBERT COELLO

Age: 26

Throws: Right

Status: 40-man roster

Options: 3

2010: 6 games, 5 2/3 innings, 4.76 ERA, 5 SOs, 5 BB

2011 contract: Team control

Since entering the Red Sox’ farm system out of the Golden Baseball League following the 2008 season, Coello has struck out 10.9 batters per nine innings. He had a terrible big league debut, giving up three runs on three hits and two walks while recording just one out on Sept. 6. In five subsequent appearances, however, he gave up just one hit and no runs while striking out five and walking three.

 

The Red Sox like the fact that he can get swings and misses with his fastball, something that separates him from some pitchers who amass big strikeout numbers in the minors due to a good breaking pitch but who then can’t replicate their success in the majors.

 

Even so, he just 24 combined appearances in Triple-A and the majors, and he likely stands to benefit from further time at Pawtucket. If he can improve his control, then he could be a potentially significant second-half option.

 

THE REINFORCEMENTS: PITCHERS WHO MIGHT INFLUENCE WHETHER THEY RECEIVE A CALL-UP IN LATE 2011 OR 2012

 

ALFREDO ACEVES

Age: 28

Throws: Right

Status: 40-man roster

Options remaining: 2

2010: 10 games, 12 innings, 3.00 ERA, 1.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9

2011 contract: $650,000

The 2010 season was essentially a lost season for Aceves, who was sidelined for most of the year by a lower back injury and then required offseason surgery to repair a broken clavicle after a bicycling accident in his native Mexico.

 

That led the Yankees to non-tender Aceves, but he has recovered from his surgery and the Sox feel that he should have few if any restrictions in spring training, resulting in his signing a major league deal on Tuesday.

 

Aceves features a fastball/cutter/curveball/changeup arsenal that permits him to attack hitters from both sides of the plate. Interestingly, in his fine 2009 season with the Yankees, he held left-handers to a .226 average and .278 OBP and right-handers to a nearly identical .227 average and .278 OBP. His changeup was a particular source of frustration to lefties, producing a .118/.151/.118/.269 line by lefties; Aceves elicited a swing-and-miss on nearly one of every four changeups he threw to lefties that year.

 

While most of his success with the Yankees came as a reliever, the Sox feel that they might benefit more from having him as a rotation depth option. As such, barring an injury — and given the amount of time he missed last year — it would seem likely that Aceves will end up in Pawtucket to start the year. Even so, depending on how he is pitching and the shape of the Sox’ relievers, he has proven an ability to help an AL East bullpen.

 

STOLMY PIMENTEL

Age: 21

Throws: Right

Status: 40-man roster

Options remaining: 3

2010: High-A Salem — 26 games, 128 2/3 innings, 4.06 ERA, 7.1 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9

2011 contract: Team control

Pimentel ranks among the top Sox starting pitching prospects. Moreover, he hasn’t pitched above High-A ball to this point. While Pimentel could become a bullpen consideration at a later point in his development — perhaps even in the final weeks of 2011, at a time when he might otherwise be done with his minor league season — the Sox have every intention of letting the young right-hander with an impressive three-pitch mix continue toward a future as a starter.

 

JASON RICE

Age: 24

Throws: Right

Status: Minor leaguer, not on 40-man roster

2010: Double-A Portland – 48 games, 60 innings, 2.85 ERA, 10.7 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9

2011 potential major league salary: Pro-rated minimum

Rice features a pair of potential swing-and-miss pitches in a fastball that touched as high as 98 mph (Rice, in fact, probably had the highest velocity readings of any Sox minor leaguer in 2010) and a curveball. Though he was passed over in the Rule 5 draft, if he can make strides with his command and reduce his walks, he has the stuff to be a big league reliever, perhaps even this year. For the start of the year, he will likely be slated for the Pawtucket bullpen.

 

JUNICHI TAZAWA

Age: 24

Throws: Right

Status: 40-man roster

Options remaining: 3

2010: Missed season (Tommy John surgery)

2011 contract: $550,000

Tazawa progressed in his recovery from Tommy John surgery as far as throwing bullpen sessions in November. He is back in Fort Myers now, working on a deliberate spring progression back toward game activity. His future could well be as a reliever, though the jury remains out. Short term, he will likely be stretched out on a very deliberate progression in games starting in April. In other words, if he is to become a big league relief option, it won’t be until later in the season.

 

KYLE WEILAND

Age: 24

Throws: Right

Status: Minor leaguer, not on 40-man roster

2010: Double-A Portland — 25 games, 128 1/3 innings, 4.42 ERA, 8.4 SO/9, 3.4 BB/9

2011 potential major league salary: Pro-rated minimum

Weiland spent most of his college career at Notre Dame as a closer, but the Sox have developed him as a starter, and that has helped his development of an improving changeup to complement a powerful fastball (which clocked as high as 95 mph last year in Double-A) and a nasty curveball that gets swings and misses from both righties and lefties.

 

Still, Weiland’s path to the majors could well come as a reliever — the role that they believed represented his most likely future when they drafted him in 2008. While he will almost certainly open the year in the Pawtucket rotation, Weiland’s second straight year as a non-roster invitee to big league camp represents an opportunity to solidify the positive impression he made in 2010 spring training.

 

He is viewed as a potential impact bullpen arm, and he could position himself as an important bullpen reinforcement later in the season. At the least, given that — barring a setback — he will have to be added to the 40-man roster before next season, he would appear a likely candidate for a September callup.

 

ALEX WILSON

Age: 24

Throws: Right

Status: Minor leaguer, not on 40-man roster

2010: High-A Salem — 11 games, 55 2/3 innings, 3.40 ERA, 8.1 SO/9, 2.4 BB/9

Double-A Portland — 16 games, 78 1/3 innings, 6.66 ERA, 6.4 SO/9, 3.9 BB/9

2011 potential major league salary: Pro-rated minimum

Like Weiland, Wilson represents a pitcher who is being developed in the minors as a starter but whose future may be in the bullpen. The 2010 season was his first full pro season, as he was taken by the Sox in the second round of the 2009 draft. Wilson became the first Sox prospect since Masterson in 2007 to secure a spot in the Double-A rotation during his first pro season.

 

Developmentally, he is a year behind Weiland. He was highly inconsistent in Portland, alternating dominant outings with poor ones. Depending on how Wilson’s development proceeds, he, too, could position himself for a potential end-of-season call-up on the strength of a fastball that can touch the mid-90s and a wipeout slider.

 

Interesting article and points of view by Speier, may be TL: DR for some, but it's definitely worth it.

 

I only disagree on the fact that they'll probably choose two lefties (instead of a lefty and a righty) and also.

 

There's also the fact that Coello was designated for assignment, which may take him out of the running.

 

Discuss.

Posted

Couple things.

 

First - the Sox just DFA'd Coello, whether he gets picked up by someone else or ends up back in AAA is another story, but for now, I wouldn't count on him being one of our options. Having said that, I don't think he was ever really was an option.

 

Second - I'm not a fan of the assumption that Wakefield just automatically has a spot. Maybe the assumption is correct, and I guess I would be surprised if he didn't end up on the roster, but I think there are pitchers who would contribute much better than him. I would much, much rather see Doubront up with the club as to Wakefield. And I think Oki and Hill will win the 2 remaining spots.

 

Next up - The 2 remaining spots HAVE TO be LHP. There is absolutely no way that we can go into Opening Day with 2 lefties on our roster, one of which is a SP, the other of which is Oki. Tito needs options when he's facing an inning with 2/3 or 3/4 hitters from the left side. In a series against the Twins, when you're in the 7th inning with Mauer and Morneau due up, I'd love to see Doubront or Hill come out of the bullpen to mow them down when Oki has just thrown 2 of the past 3 nights. Just need more options.

 

I think that pretty much wraps up my opinion of this. Basically, Doubront needs to take Wakefield's spot. I'm not at all a sentimentalist. I know he's done great things for the club and he's 13 wins from the club record, but I want to win in 2011, and our best shot is without Shakey Wakey.

 

EDIT: Just saw Dipre mentioned the Coello thing, my bad for repeating.

Posted
I am hoping for a Doubront and Oki for the Pen. Doubront can spot start when he is needed along with the WAKE. I would like to keep Atchison in the Bullpen mostly for a mop up roll. But other than that the Sox Bullpen is set with Jenks, Bard, Paps.
Posted

I also like the idea of Oki in middle innings, Felix as a long guy. If we have him and Aceves on the roster, that's 2 long innings guys and we can safely jettison Wakefield

 

Paps

Jenks

Bard

Weeler

Oki

Aceves

Doubront

 

Not. Bad.

Posted
Not reallyh out of nowhere. He was a starter in college and no one can argue that his stuff is good enough. He's going to need to improve his control and pick up a better third pitch though.
Posted
On the Hot Stove Report' date=' Gammons said that he expects Bard to be a starter in the future. Very interesting.[/quote']

 

THat is interesting. But it does hurt our bullpen depth. Any idea who they're planning on getting rid of to get him into the rotation? Because I know they're already heavily committed to their current starting 5, and Daisuke needs to get at least 2 more years worth of chances to finish becoming an American pitcher before we throw in the towel, especially because the results so far are more "not as good as we thought they'd be" than actually "bad."

Posted
After watching the Joba yo-yo debacle, I am weary of trying to convert Bard. And it's not like the Sox are hurting for SP at the moment.
Posted
There's factors to Bard that Joba doesn't have actually so I'm not so worried about that. For one thing, Bard is fitter and healthier. Still, he was last seen in a starter's role being absurdly ineffective in A-ball so that raises a red flag.
Posted
THat is interesting. But it does hurt our bullpen depth. Any idea who they're planning on getting rid of to get him into the rotation? Because I know they're already heavily committed to their current starting 5' date=' and Daisuke needs to get at least 2 more years worth of chances to finish becoming an American pitcher before we throw in the towel, especially because the results so far are more "not as good as we thought they'd be" than actually "bad."[/quote']

 

I don't think Bard will be making the move soon. But when he does, it will likely be Daisuke going. I'm not sure why he would need 2 more years of chances. He's pitched for 3 full years, he's already about 30 years old, he's going to start declining soon and it's not like he's had peripherals that suggested he was any better than he is now. There was actually some interest from teams looking to acquire Daisuke, as he's not a terrible pitcher and he's relatively cheap. If Bard can prove that he's a good pitcher at the starting level (which I do have doubts that he can do), then I honestly wouldn't think twice about jettisoning Daisuke. Daisuke's not bad, but he's just not very good either.

Posted
And I think enough things can go wrong with a Bard conversion that you don't jettison an at-least-average veteran in his prime in order to experiment. Relievers get linked to possible moves to the rotation constantly around this time of the year. Once in a great while it even happens.
Posted
There's factors to Bard that Joba doesn't have actually so I'm not so worried about that. For one thing' date=' Bard is fitter and healthier. Still, he was last seen in a starter's role being absurdly ineffective in A-ball so that raises a red flag.[/quote']

 

The Joba-Bard conversation is relevant. Joba hurt his arm while in the best shape of his life. The fact is, there is a way to convert a pitcher between pen and rotation. The Yankees did not heed that way and it turned one of the more intriguing prospects of the last few yrs into a guy who is already a shell of himself. The sox might consider it, but I dont think Bard will have enough success. First of all, he has good control, not elite control of a 2 pitch arsenal. When his FBs are coming in a 93-95, they dont have as much fire behind them than they did when they were at 98-100. This thus necessitates a third pitch, which he doesnt remotely have. The Bard to the rotation experiment was a miserable failure based on arsenal and repetition of delivery. Shortening the delivery and limiting his arsenal has turned him into an assassin out of the pen. Is it worth ruining that potentially forever?

Posted

The best shape of Joba's life is still

 

A: more of a circle than a square

 

B: not as good as the worst shape of Bard's life.

 

Those are facts.

Posted
The Joba-Bard conversation is relevant. Joba hurt his arm while in the best shape of his life. The fact is' date=' there is a way to convert a pitcher between pen and rotation. The Yankees did not heed that way and it turned one of the more intriguing prospects of the last few yrs into a guy who is already a shell of himself. The sox might consider it, but I dont think Bard will have enough success. First of all, he has good control, not elite control of a 2 pitch arsenal. When his FBs are coming in a 93-95, they dont have as much fire behind them than they did when they were at 98-100. This thus necessitates a third pitch, which he doesnt remotely have. The Bard to the rotation experiment was a miserable failure based on arsenal and repetition of delivery. Shortening the delivery and limiting his arsenal has turned him into an assassin out of the pen. Is it worth ruining that potentially forever?[/quote']Valid points. There is reason for concern.
Posted
Bard is not a potential starter. He lacks the third pitch necessary for success as a Starting Pitcher, and he actually had a fairly flukey season peripheral-wise last year (even though people don't like to talk about that). If it ain't broken, don't fix it.
Posted

Agree. I don't think there's any real reason to fix what works here, and it's not like we were dumb enough to put the franchise in a position where we have to force a rookie who was dominant in the pen, into the rotation because otherwise we don't have 5+ starters.

 

Ahem.

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