2011 Red Sox Predictions

[Dipre]

Jonathan Papelbon is not, say, a washed up Mike Timlin. He's a 30-year-old relief pitcher with tons of talent whose issues, if fixed, could lead him back to being an elite reliever.

 

My issue is not with "being loyal" to the player but rather how the "silver lining" is not being acknowledged.

 

If they fix him, i'd take him at a reasonable price over any NL West experiment (who will be type A by the way) while keeping Bard on a setup role.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm not comparing him to Timlin.

 

What I am saying is that 1 year is not enough time to judge whether or not a player is "fixed" or not after two bad seasons, and in a very deep RP free agency pool in the 2011-2012 offseason, I see absolutely no reason to forgo signing some of the proven FA relief pitchers just to give Papelbon an extra chance.

 

Look. We have paid Papelbon almost $29mm to close games for us for the past 6 years. I see no reason why we owe him anything else. I'm not sure if that's what you're talking about with the silver lining or not, but that's what I'm understanding it - we basically owe him a chance to redeem himself.

 

We paid the guy $29mm to pitch 60-70 innings a year. He did great the first 4 years, but really struggled the past 2.

 

Bard needs the chance to close games out. He's incredibly effective, and at a cost of less than $1mm this year, we can lock him up for 3-4 years for about 12-15mm and have a closer for the next 4 years at the same cost as Papelbon will cost in 2011. Take into account that a set up guy comes at a fraction of the cost of a closer, and you've got the ability to get a very reliable, very consistent, and very effective bullpen without having to shell out $10mm+ for your closer.

[Keeper]

Earlier in the thread, I predicted that Bard would be the closer in the postseason. I stand by that prediction. Francona will give Papelbon a long leash, but when push comes to shove he won't trust him in the most important games.

[jacksonianmarch]

Paps is in his contract yr. His stuff hasnt declined, it is just his location. I expect him to be at least as good as last season and probably more like 2009. That being said, I dont think he will ever get back to his hayday of 2007 because the hitters know him a little better now. Papelbon's bread and butter is the high FB that looks like it's down the middle but ends up over the letters. It's an unhittable pitch. Now, hitters lay off of it and force him to come down in the zone. I dont care how hard you throw, a fastball that isnt located onto the corners and is down in the zone will get hit. Last yr, I thought he developed his slider a bit better and that kept him from having a true trainwreck season. This yr, he needs to work more on hitting corners with his FB instead of trying to get guys to chase high on 3 straight pitches.

[Dipre]

Jacko, where do you get that Papelbon's problems can be fixed by painting the corners with fastballs?

 

He can do that, what he can't do is throw anything else for strikes consistently, including that little slider. No matter how hard you throw and how many corners you paint, if the hitters are sitting dead-red on fastballs, you're not going to be able to get by them consistently.

 

The high fastball is also much less effective if he can't trust his split to change plane of sight on hitters, who simply lay off of anything that's moving to a certain extent.

 

He gets back the split, he goes back to his 2008 (his actual best statistical season) heyday.

 

I don't see why it's so difficult to fathom that Papelbon makes adjustments and becomes what he was a couple years ago, i mean, i can see that from you, since it's kinda become your job to throw a bar of soap in the cake mix, but not from everyone else. Specially people who expect Jed Lowrie to hit 27 homeruns.

[Palodios]

In all fairness, I've made it no secret that while I don't think Pap is worth 12 million, I do believe a change in pitching coach will go a long way for him.

[Dipre]

In all fairness' date=' I've made it no secret that while I don't think Pap is worth 12 million, I do believe a change in pitching coach will go a long way for him.[/quote']

 

No reliever is worth 12 million.

 

That note aside, i don't get why people think Papelbon is unfixable. As Jacko noted, his stuff hasn't diminished. It's all about making adjustments, and Young may be able to infuse new ideas and help Papelbon do just that.

 

What would eat at me is see him go to another team for pennies on the dollar then dominate the opposition.

[SoxFanForsyth]

First off - I don't know why this discussion is even valid.

 

There are two possible outcomes to Pap's season. He either improves, or he is a sub par reliever.

 

If he improves, he's going to look for a high dollar, multi year contract, something the Sox will not be interested in offering.

 

If he stays the same or gets worse, there is absolutely no reason to offer him a deal anyway.

 

So we are arguing about whether Papelbon, Mr. Setting-Records-For-Future-Closers, is going to take a team friendly contract after a 2008-esque season??

 

It's a pointless argument.

 

And for the record - I'm not saying he won't ever return to his 2008 numbers. I'm saying that 1 year of 2008 style numbers isn't enough to persuade me to sign him again, not even to a 1 year deal, and not with the FA market the way it is projected to be for the 2011-2012 offseason.

 

And for the record - 27 HR for Lowrie may be a bit high, but 20-25 in a season is incredibly feasible. Last year was the first year of a somewhat experienced and healthy Lowrie, and he crushed it. He won't keep that pace, but even if he slows down, 20-25 is not at all a reach.

[Dipre]

One year of 2008 numbers is enough of a sample size to establish his value. It's a return to form, not an establishment of new levels of performance.

 

And how do you know the Sox wouldn't be willing to offer a multi-year deal? Do you work in the FO?

 

They probably wouldn't be willing to pay top dollar for Papelbon, and understandably so, but there are many factors working towards a possible agreement with him, pending performance, next off-season, including familiarity and closer availability on the FA pool.

 

I think it's more likely that Papelbon re-signs than Lowrie hits more than 20 homers for the record.

[Station 13]

Relievers cashed in when they can. 1 year of him bouncing him back can do that. But I don't expect him here next year. Look at the relief market this winter. Absolutely crazy.

 

Do I want Paps back? It depends on what he demands. He'll get more money and with 3 years commitment. It's difficult to accept when Bard is cost effective for the next 5 years. Then you can use money to get middle relievers to surround him for a lot less than what Paps signed on the dotted line to remain a Sox.

[Palodios]

Papelbon has emphasized that he wants top dollar, and the Sox usually want top value. These are the possible scenarios I would predict.

 

If Papelbon has a Rivera year, he's back with the Sox on a big contract, unless maybe the Yankees want an elite reliever for the 7th inning.

 

If Papelbon has a decent 2011, he will get a 3 year deal because of his past performance, and I don't see the Sox taking that risk with Bard as a cheap and viable replacement. They also know a lot more about his health problems than other teams might.

 

If Papelbon has a crummy 2011, the Sox will have already overpaid for him in 2011, and won't offer him arbitration. He'll want to close, and the Sox won't let him blow another ten saves in 2012. He'll be best suited to try to have a recovery year somewhere like Washington or Pittsburgh to re-build his value outside of the AL East.

[Station 13]

Jenks and Wheeler are control through 2012 as well. That's some guys to surround Bard with should he take over. That's probably Theo's plan when those deals signed.

[Dipre]

That's a sensible position, since i honestly (regardless of 2011 performance) wouldn't want him back at three years guaranteed, but as you say, it all depends on what he's asking for.

 

The problem with surrounding Bard with other relievers is that it defeats the "cost-effective" purpose and the better relievers are likely to cost a draft pick. It all depends on how the situation plays out.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre, my point with Paps is that in his hayday, he was throwing the ball up at the letters and got a lot of hitters to chase. Now that batters are laying off of that pitch for the most part, he's had to come into the zone more. He does have the capability to paint the corners, but lacks the consistency to do so on a nightly basis, which is why he's fallen off a bit. His off-speed stuff has never been great or even well located. When he was throwing the split, he always threw it for balls, but once again, batter chased. His game is predicated on players chasing balls out of the zone. Now that batters seem to have read the book on him, he needs to modify his gameplan, something he hasnt shown the ability to do

[Dipre]

Dipre' date=' my point with Paps is that in his hayday, he was throwing the ball up at the letters and got a lot of hitters to chase. Now that batters are laying off of that pitch for the most part, he's had to come into the zone more. He does have the capability to paint the corners, but lacks the consistency to do so on a nightly basis, which is why he's fallen off a bit. His off-speed stuff has never been great or even well located. When he was throwing the split, he always threw it for balls, but once again, batter chased. His game is predicated on players chasing balls out of the zone. Now that batters seem to have read the book on him, he needs to modify his gameplan, something he hasnt shown the ability to do[/quote']

 

Ummm......no.

 

If you check his pitchFx charts from 2006-08 i'm sure you'll find that he could hit the bottom of the zone with the split in a semi-regular basis. He lost that ability in 2009 and lived off of fastballs for the most part, and last year was more of the same, but the league had completely adjusted.

 

If he never had the ability to throw the split for strikes, the league would have figured him out much sooner, because you just can't live off of fastballs in the zone exclusively.

 

Not buying it.

[Bob_Boston]

Relievers have a history, for the most part, of having a good year followed by a bad year. I think Paps makes it back big time.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Anyone else excited about our outfield?

 

Crawford

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7948499

 

Ellsbury

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7028681

 

And then this guy in 2012?!?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11469235 :shock:

 

Damn. Good luck finding a gap.

[DirtDog]

Relievers have a history' date=' for the most part, of having a good year followed by a bad year. I think Paps makes it back big time.[/quote'] Agreed. I don't think he will be anywhere near 2006 or 2007 Pap but I think he is still a top 5 closer and may perform as such.

[lasitter]

I'm coming in this late. Why did we have to give him $12 million? Just to avoid arbitration?

 

Would he have gotten more?

[Ravenous916]

Anyone else excited about our outfield?

 

Crawford

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7948499

 

Ellsbury

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7028681

 

And then this guy in 2012?!?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11469235 :shock:

 

Damn. Good luck finding a gap.

 

Crawford is so fast his shoe came untied.

[Ravenous916]

I'm coming in this late. Why did we have to give him $12 million? Just to avoid arbitration?

 

Would he have gotten more?

 

Theo likes cost certainty, ... don't know what number Pap threw out there.

 

Maybe if he rebounds this year, it might buy him a little loyalty too.

[PineRider]

Anyone else excited about our outfield?

 

Crawford

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7948499

 

Ellsbury

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7028681

 

And then this guy in 2012?!?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11469235 :shock:

 

Damn. Good luck finding a gap.

 

I loved this post. Thanks for putting it together.

[Flynnatic10]

My prediction is that they have to play a 163rd game with the yankees for the AL east title! and red sox will win

[BOSOX2011]

1- CF- Ellsbury -.312 12 HR, 62 RBI, 101 Runs Scored, 66 SB

2- LF- Crawford -.332 18 HR, 86 RBI, 106 Runs Scored, 58 SB.

3- 2B- Pedroia -.318 14 HR, 82 RBI, 98 Runs Scored 12 SB

4- 1B- Gonzo -.315 44 HR, 126 RBI, 104 Runs Scored

5- 3B- Youk -.316 26 HR, 108 RBI, 96 Runs Scored

6- DH- Ortiz -.271 31 HR, 102 RBI, 84 Runs Scored

7- RF- Drew -.282 20 HR, 84 RBI, 81 Runs Scored

8- C- Salty -.264 12 HR, 68 RBI, 72 Runs Scored

9- SS- Scutaro -.278 11 HR, 64 RBI, 83 Runs Scored

 

Bench

Varitek- C- .258 8 HR, 36 RBI, 40 Runs Scored.

Cameron- OF- .264 12 HR, 43 RBI, 60 Runs Scored.

Lowrie- Util- .298 10 HR, 40 RBI, 50 Runs Scored.

Kalish- OF- .281 4 HR, 22 RBI, 20 Runs Scored.

 

SP

Lester- 18-6 2.86 ERA

Bucholz- 16-8 3.12 ERA

Beckett- 10-9 4.56 ERA

Lackey- 12-10 4.12 ERA

Dice-K- 14-8 3.12 ERA

 

RP

Paps- 4-5 2.86 ERA 42 Saves

Bard- 5-2 1.98 ERA 44 Holds 8 Saves

Jenks- 4-4 3.12 ERA 12 Saves

Wake- 6-7 4.52 ERA

Wheeler- 4-2 3.67 ERA 12 Holds

Okajima- 4-3 4.12 ERA 16 Holds

 

Red sox- 109-53 1st in AL East.

[diony]

1- CF- Ellsbury -.312 12 HR, 62 RBI, 101 Runs Scored, 66 SB

2- LF- Crawford -.332 18 HR, 86 RBI, 106 Runs Scored, 58 SB.

3- 2B- Pedroia -.318 14 HR, 82 RBI, 98 Runs Scored 12 SB

4- 1B- Gonzo -.315 44 HR, 126 RBI, 104 Runs Scored

5- 3B- Youk -.316 26 HR, 108 RBI, 96 Runs Scored

6- DH- Ortiz -.271 31 HR, 102 RBI, 84 Runs Scored

7- RF- Drew -.282 20 HR, 84 RBI, 81 Runs Scored

8- C- Salty -.264 12 HR, 68 RBI, 72 Runs Scored

9- SS- Scutaro -.278 11 HR, 64 RBI, 83 Runs Scored

 

Bench

Varitek- C- .258 8 HR, 36 RBI, 40 Runs Scored.

Cameron- OF- .264 12 HR, 43 RBI, 60 Runs Scored.

Lowrie- Util- .298 10 HR, 40 RBI, 50 Runs Scored.

Kalish- OF- .281 4 HR, 22 RBI, 20 Runs Scored.

 

SP

Lester- 18-6 2.86 ERA

Bucholz- 16-8 3.12 ERA

Beckett- 10-9 4.56 ERA

Lackey- 12-10 4.12 ERA

Dice-K- 14-8 3.12 ERA

 

RP

Paps- 4-5 2.86 ERA 42 Saves

Bard- 5-2 1.98 ERA 44 Holds 8 Saves

Jenks- 4-4 3.12 ERA 12 Saves

Wake- 6-7 4.52 ERA

Wheeler- 4-2 3.67 ERA 12 Holds

Okajima- 4-3 4.12 ERA 16 Holds

 

Red sox- 109-53 1st in AL East.

 

Good predictions. Except for Dice-K. 2nd best ERA on the team?

[Palodios]

Good predictions. Except for Dice-K. 2nd best ERA on the team?

 

BOSOX2011, Welcome to Talksox:D

[Dojji]

Good predictions. Except for Dice-K. 2nd best ERA on the team?

 

There were signs that validate that. He's been a fair bit better since he started taking his shoulder more seriously. If he doesn't let Japanese pride get in the way of his training and conditioning this year he could turn in a real solid effort.

 

Dunno bout a 3.2 ERA though, that's a tall order for a guy who averages low 4's.

 

Still though, even though Daisuke hasn't been what we'd hoped he'd be, he's still got a career 110 ERA+ for Boston. He's a good pitcher. Just not a $100M pitcher. The stuff has improved and his bb/9 has gone down each of the last 3 seasons so there is some room for hope.

 

Also you're predicting a career year from Scutaro.

[yeszir]

Salty will break out this year just you watch

[diony]

BOSOX2011' date=' Welcome to Talksox:D[/quote']

 

Didn't notice it was his first post.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Damn, 44 HR for Gonzo?