2011 Red Sox Predictions

[Keeper]

In 500 ABs, my projection for Lowrie would be this: .275/.365/.445, 16 HRs, 30 doubles

[Dipre]

Keeper, stop hating on Lowrie by having realistic expectations!

 

By the way, remember how you got in my case sometimes for calling Jacko out on being a homer? Well i hope you now realize that i don't like unrealistic expectations from people regardless of their team affiliations.

[SoxSport]

James' stats were put together before the FA season, i.e., before the Red Sox signed Crawford.

 

He has Lowrie playing 144g and Scutaro 153g. Lowrie's games are probably at 3B.

 

James' predictions for Crawford and AdGon are also for their old teams, and probably not as accurate for playing in Fenway.

 

He also has Kalish playing 151g, probably in LF. If James is right about Kalish, Crawford wasn't worth the climb. We'll see how things develop.

[Keeper]

Keeper, stop hating on Lowrie by having realistic expectations!

 

By the way, remember how you got in my case sometimes for calling Jacko out on being a homer? Well i hope you now realize that i don't like unrealistic expectations from people regardless of their team affiliations.

 

Jacko is most definitely a homer, but he still knows his s***. I probably got on your case because you might have been too confrontational about it. You're a fair-minded guy. I respect that.

[Johnny_RedSox]

redsox will win it all this year!

[BSN07]

James' stats were put together before the FA season, i.e., before the Red Sox signed Crawford.

 

He has Lowrie playing 144g and Scutaro 153g. Lowrie's games are probably at 3B.

 

James' predictions for Crawford and AdGon are also for their old teams, and probably not as accurate for playing in Fenway.

 

He also has Kalish playing 151g, probably in LF. If James is right about Kalish, Crawford wasn't worth the climb. We'll see how things develop.

 

Maybe not as much next season. But Drew is gone after next year. So They needed another OF besides Kalish going forward anyways.

[Palodios]

With 4 outfielders on the team, they all get pretty solid play-time. And since three of them are Cameron/Drew/Ellsbury, Kalish will pop up when one of them hits the DL.

 

Bill James couldn't have predicted everything that happened, and such a lefthanded outfield. He's smart, but no a700, but any means.

[Dojji]

180 AB's is enough to project a trend a statistical trend over 550 AB's? News to me.

 

And i only mention this for the sake of factual accuracy. If it was a Yankees player you'd be singing a whole different tune.

 

There are only three players on the Red Sox realistically capable of a SLG% of .520 or greater during a full season: Youk, Gonzales and Ortiz.

 

Come on now, let's live in reality here.

 

Pedroia has slugged in the .490's twice in the last three years, so I'd be careful about being that categorical.

[Dojji]

In 500 ABs' date=' my projection for Lowrie would be this: .275/.365/.445, 16 HRs, 30 doubles[/quote']

 

I'd be happy with anything over about .280/.350/.420 with 10 to 12 HR's or so. That's a good stretch better than Scutaro and very attainable.

[Dipre]

Pedroia has slugged in the .490's twice in the last three years' date=' so I'd be careful about being that categorical.[/quote']

 

Are you actually using Pedroia (a superior ballplayer in every sense of the word) as a comparison to Lowrie? Almost no one in the Majors swings as hard as Pedroia or has his hand-eye coordination, so please.

 

You never learn, and probably never will at this point.

[ORS]

It doesn't sound like he's using Pedroia as a justification for projecting Lowrie, but more as an example to refute your .520 SLG line in the sand. Drew would be another I'd add as having a realistic chance at a .520 SLG.

[Dipre]

It doesn't sound like he's using Pedroia as a justification for projecting Lowrie' date=' but more as an example to refute your .520 SLG line in the sand. Drew would be another I'd add as having a realistic chance at a .520 SLG.[/quote']

 

I contend that he's using Pedroia because of the "he's too small to hit for power" comments, which could be seen as an "aberration" given his physical attributes, and that's why i mentioned the outstanding ability that makes him capable of such a thing, but there are plenty of examples of people with similar body types as Lowrie (Cano, Soriano) who can and do hit for power. However, where's the indication in the scouting report, minors or majors performance that he can realistically slug .520 on a full, 145 + game season? I was having this conversation with someone outside of TS the other day, but hitting 20 HR's in the Majors is not a piece of cake. I don't dislike the kid, what i think is that power is not as big a part of this game as people (without anything except last year's sample) would attempt to indicate.

 

On the flip side, Drew has actually slugged .520 on previous full seasons (04, 05, 09) so it would be a return to previous performance, even though, to be honest, i quite doubt it. I like Drew, as everybody knows, but entering his age 35 season, while he will probably have better numbers than last year, he probably won't replicate any of his prime year outputs.

[diony]

The lineup according to a NESN article that predicts the 2011 Red Sox would become the greatest team in major league history over the 1927 Yankees.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

Dustin Pedroia, 2B

Carl Crawford, LF

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

Kevin Youkilis, 3B

David Ortiz, DH

J.D. Drew, RF

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

Marco Scutaro/Jed Lowrie, SS

 

I like the lineup a lot, but the article is full of BS.

[SoxSport]

Maybe not as much next season. But Drew is gone after next year. So They needed another OF besides Kalish going forward anyways.

 

Right. Epstein & Co thought this through to next year and beyond. Ellsbury is due for an extension in a couple of years, too, and maybe that's where Westmoreland comes in, if he can make it back.

 

I believe it's Polamalu of the Steelers who had the same brain operation as Westmoreland when he was young. Either him or one of the other big name DBs in the NFL.

[EXman369]

Right. Epstein & Co thought this through to next year and beyond. Ellsbury is due for an extension in a couple of years, too, and maybe that's where Westmoreland comes in, if he can make it back.

 

I believe it's Polamalu of the Steelers who had the same brain operation as Westmoreland when he was young. Either him or one of the other big name DBs in the NFL.

 

Thats really interesting i always thought that there would be no chance for him to come back and to just hope for him to live a healthy life out side of baseball

[BSN07]

The lineup according to a NESN article that predicts the 2011 Red Sox would become the greatest team in major league history over the 1927 Yankees.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

Dustin Pedroia, 2B

Carl Crawford, LF

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

Kevin Youkilis, 3B

David Ortiz, DH

J.D. Drew, RF

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

Marco Scutaro/Jed Lowrie, SS

 

I like the lineup a lot, but the article is full of BS.

 

It's a NESN fluff piece, chill. Same as the ones the YES network puts out in the off season for the Yankees. Nothing out of the ordinary to stoke the hype furnace. Don't read too much into it.

 

I see them winning 95-98 games. If they go over the century mark for wins, it will be a pleasant surprise IMO.

 

As far as the projected lineup, I could easily get on board for it

[ORS]

I contend that he's using Pedroia because of the "he's too small to hit for power" comments, which could be seen as an "aberration" given his physical attributes, and that's why i mentioned the outstanding ability that makes him capable of such a thing, but there are plenty of examples of people with similar body types as Lowrie (Cano, Soriano) who can and do hit for power. However, where's the indication in the scouting report, minors or majors performance that he can realistically slug .520 on a full, 145 + game season? I was having this conversation with someone outside of TS the other day, but hitting 20 HR's in the Majors is not a piece of cake. I don't dislike the kid, what i think is that power is not as big a part of this game as people (without anything except last year's sample) would attempt to indicate.

 

On the flip side, Drew has actually slugged .520 on previous full seasons (04, 05, 09) so it would be a return to previous performance, even though, to be honest, i quite doubt it. I like Drew, as everybody knows, but entering his age 35 season, while he will probably have better numbers than last year, he probably won't replicate any of his prime year outputs.

You phrased it as "realistically capable", not as "something you expect to happen". Drew falls in the realistically capable group.

[Dipre]

You phrased it as "realistically capable"' date=' not as "something you expect to happen". Drew falls in the realistically capable group.[/quote']

 

True. He's had that kind of success before, and he usually produces near those levels.

[Palodios]

However' date=' where's the indication in the scouting report, minors or majors performance that he can realistically slug .520 on a full, 145 + game season? I was having this conversation with someone outside of TS the other day, but hitting 20 HR's in the Majors is not a piece of cake. I don't dislike the kid, what i think is that power is not as big a part of this game as people (without anything except last year's sample) would attempt to indicate.[/quote']

 

From ages 24 to 26, he's been on the DL for his wrist, and for mono. Those are prime development years. Its not like we have a strong sample size of him being a 5 HR hitter in the minors for the last two years-- because we have no idea how his training has gone, or what kind of power he currently has. I liked him a lot when he came up a few years back, but you're absolutely right that he had no power back then.

 

The reason why I think he's such a "sexy beast" is because--atleast to me-- for a player to come back after two full years of inconsistent play time and slug the way he did, that's a pretty huge thing. How often do you see a guy who is essentially a minor leaguer, take two full years off, and then hit 23 XBH in 55 games? By all means, its a small sample, but he definitely looked like a different player when he popped up in 2010. I think 20 being a reach for him, but its possible. Its like we discussed with Beltre-- no one expects him to duplicate his 2004, but it still happened-- its the same with Lowrie for 2010.

[Dipre]

From ages 24 to 26, he's been on the DL for his wrist, and for mono. Those are prime development years. Its not like we have a strong sample size of him being a 5 HR hitter in the minors for the last two years-- because we have no idea how his training has gone, or what kind of power he currently has. I liked him a lot when he came up a few years back, but you're absolutely right that he had no power back then.

 

The reason why I think he's such a "sexy beast" is because--atleast to me-- for a player to come back after two full years of inconsistent play time and slug the way he did, that's a pretty huge thing. How often do you see a guy who is essentially a minor leaguer, take two full years off, and then hit 23 XBH in 55 games? By all means, its a small sample, but he definitely looked like a different player when he popped up in 2010. I think 20 being a reach for him, but its possible. Its like we discussed with Beltre-- no one expects him to duplicate his 2004, but it still happened-- its the same with Lowrie for 2010.

 

There are plenty of cases of players who miss time due to injuries or personal issues (Josh Hamilton, Jayson Werth) and continue down the development path they were expected to have, but here lies the key to the issue, continue their development path, where is the indication that Lowrie's development path was going to take to 20-homer, 40-double land?

 

Sure, stranger things have happened, (See: Ramirez, Hanley; Cano, Robinson, Youkilis, Kevin) but is that a reason to say that something as unlikely as him hitting 20 homers or slugging .520 is a near certainty? Because that is being a homer of the worst kind. Now, i'm not saying you're doing that, but let's also mention that Beltre's 2010 season was a fluke indeed but it was not close (power-wise) to 2004. He hit 48 homers and had an OPS over 1.000 , 2010 ain't even close.

 

Also, food for thought, here are the players who slugged .520 or better last year: Corey Hart, David Ortiz, Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth, Robinson Cano, Luke Scott, Adam Dunn, Beltre, Tulo, Paul Konerko, Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzales, Joey Votto, Miguel Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton.

 

The 20-Homer list ain't too long either.

 

My point is that being optimistic and realistic are different things. Hell, he could break out and hit 54 homers like Bautista, but come on.

[Palodios]

There are plenty of cases of players who miss time due to injuries or personal issues (Josh Hamilton' date=' Jayson Werth) and continue down the development path they were expected to have, but here lies the key to the issue, [b']continue their development path[/b], where is the indication that Lowrie's development path was going to take to 20-homer, 40-double land?

 

 

The last year he was healthy-- 2007, he hit 14 home runs with 52 doubles in 157 games at age 23. He has a long way to 30, but since when was 14 to 20 an unrealistic jump?

[Dipre]

You mean 47 doubles and 13 homers between AA and AAA. Career high. This is the minors, not the Majors. Where is the indication besides the SSS that his power has increased from low double digit homers to low twenties?

 

There is none.

 

I'm just being realistic. If this was a Yankee prospect, people would be jumping at the evidence presented and accepting it as a gospel, which is pretty humorous to me.

[Palodios]

What you seem to be disregarding is there aren't a lot of samples to disprove him being a big home run hitter either. He was drafted in 2005 after being a power hitter in college. He had a mediocore 2006. He then tore through the minors, hitting 14 home runs in 2007. Then he got hurt. Now he pops up healthy and hits a ton of bombs. He's never had the chance to stick at a level and perform there, he's been constantly moving up and getting hurt.

[Dipre]

He had "above-average" power in college, he wasn't a "power hitter".

 

This is what his scouting report says about him:

 

He demonstrated plus power for a middle infielder in college, but at this point he looks to have doubles power and not a lot of home run pop. Hits for average very well, and equally from both sides of the plate. Outstanding plate discipline, in true Red Sox form his best attribute may be his ability to work pitchers for good at bats.

 

Which is what i've said all along.

 

At this point, we're arguing for the sake of arguing, i'm not convincing anyone no matter how many scouting reports and statistics i present.

 

I agree with the scouts, he's a doubles hitter with outstanding plate discipline, you guys seem to think there's some hidden power potential that no one in the organization, reporters, or scouts foresaw.

 

So let's just agree to disagree and wait to see how it plays out.

[jacksonianmarch]

So Jed Lowrie is hitting 20 homers in 2011? Wow. The guy had a good 150ABs or so in 2010. Lets see him do something over a more solid sample size. He might, but any prediction right now is based on a very small sample size. It is also unknown whether he can survive a full season physically let alone be productive

[Palodios]

There are some things I could argue with you in there, but you're right, we're clearly just bored and waiting for the season at this point.

[Poopsicle]

Jed's gun be better than old man Jetes next year. Bamboozle!

 

:ortiz:

 

He's like the white Big Papi.

[ORS]

You mean 47 doubles and 13 homers between AA and AAA. Career high. This is the minors, not the Majors. Where is the indication besides the SSS that his power has increased from low double digit homers to low twenties?

 

There is none.

 

I'm just being realistic. If this was a Yankee prospect, people would be jumping at the evidence presented and accepting it as a gospel, which is pretty humorous to me.

I can think of tons of examples of guys who have mid-teen HR power in their early twenties that blossom into 20 HR guys by their late 20's. In fact, it is the accepted norm that players regularly hit their physical prime around the age 27. This is an awful justification of your position.

 

The fact of the matter with Lowrie is that nobody, and I mean nobody, can realistically expect anything from him, good or bad. There's a 2.5 year window of play, one that's pretty recent, that is either missing or can't be considered reliable because he was playing hurt. Before and after that, there's some data that suggests he could be pretty good. It's foolish to build a house on that data, but it's equally foolish to attempt to toss it aside given the circumstance, which is what you seem to want to do.

[Dipre]

I conceded the point that it's "possible" everything is "possible" but it's also highly unlikely. Most of these guys who end up developing 20-HR power in their late twenties are identified by scouts as having "projectable power" which i never found in any scouting report in the kid's case. And it's simply not his game. What is the obsession with him hitting homeruns? He's an OBP guy who slaps the ball around.

[ORS]

I conceded the point that it's "possible" everything is "possible" but it's also highly unlikely. Most of these guys who end up developing 20-HR power in their late twenties are identified by scouts as having "projectable power" which i never found in any scouting report in the kid's case. And it's simply not his game. What is the obsession with him hitting homeruns? He's an OBP guy who slaps the ball around.

This is the part I, and I think others, are taking contention with. I don't get "highly unlikely" when I look at his healthy play over the last 4 years. Unfortunately, I only have 1.5 years of healthy play, so I don't get a warm fuzzy on what to expect from him....either way....but "highly unlikely" is every bit as wrong as "highly likely", IMO.