The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[example1]

Pettitte looks to be coming back...

We dont have Javy Vazquez anymore...

AJ Burnett will not have a 5+ERA again...

Phil Hughes is another year wiser and stronger...

 

I'm sorry, but what exactly makes you think that the AJ Burnett who finished the year last year will be much more successful than he was? There was very little impressive about him, certainly not from a guy who is supposedly in the prime-of-his-prime. I thought he was a bad signing when they got him, and he has done nothing to dispell that thought. His arm is very live but at his age he really should have put it together more consistently than he has. He's like Beckett but even less consistent and more of a headcase.

 

As for Hughes, I think he's a very good pitcher. His ceiling is a full season like his first half last year and I think he could have a Cy Young or two when he's done. Very good pitcher. Yankees fans should be as excited about him as Sox fans are of Buchholz, IMO.

[Divinity]

Burnett going through a divorce and the absence of pitching coach Dave Eiland for a period of the season certainly had a negative impact on his performance.

[Dipre]

Burnett going through a divorce and the absence of pitching coach Dave Eiland for a period of the season certainly had a negative impact on his performance.

 

I'm sorry, but do you have any more non-injury, non-legitimate excuses to make?

[Divinity]

Not being mentally prepared isn't a legit reason? The numbers don't lie, Burnett is a career 3.99 ERA pitcher and never had a 5+ ERA season until last year. I expect him to rebound back to 4.00 or so.

Burnett can either be very hittable or virtually unhittable

[jacksonianmarch]

And his numbers after Eiland left bear that out. Imagine that, your pitching coach leaves then your wife leaves. Probably not the best way to prepare yourself for the games. I remember the YES stat after 6 of his starts without Eiland and his ERA was over 10. He'll bounce back, I am sure of it. For once, injury isnt the problem, which is promising for the Yanks

[Dojji]

Or means that he'll be even worse if/when injury IS a problem.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And his numbers after Eiland left bear that out. Imagine that' date=' your pitching coach leaves then your wife leaves. Probably not the best way to prepare yourself for the games. I remember the YES stat after 6 of his starts without Eiland and his ERA was over 10. He'll bounce back, I am sure of it. For once, injury isnt the problem, which is promising for the Yanks[/quote']

 

Even if you take out the span of time when Eiland was gone, Burnett still went 10-11 with a 4.56 ERA last season. I don't understand what makes anyone think that he will bounce back.

 

Since 2006, his K:BB ratio has regressed each year, his ERA has regressed, his K/9 has significantly regressed, and hitters have increased their contact rate on balls thrown out of the strike zone by 17% in just 2 seasons. His BABIP was in a normalized level. I just don't see how you can be sure that he's going to bounce back when he is trending downward and there is no physical injury to attribute to the trend.

 

And also - Eiland isn't even there anymore. If Burnett needs Eiland to wipe his ass when he takes a dump to pitch well, what's he going to do this year??

[Dojji]

Take a dump. A lot.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Take a dump. A lot.

 

I think what you mean is that he's going to be pitching with a dirty butthole. And I agree.

[Dojji]

I made that post open to a wide variety of interpretations for a reason. Enjoy.

[example1]

And his numbers after Eiland left bear that out. Imagine that' date=' your pitching coach leaves then your wife leaves. Probably not the best way to prepare yourself for the games. I remember the YES stat after 6 of his starts without Eiland and his ERA was over 10. [b']He'll bounce back, I am sure of it.[/b] For once, injury isnt the problem, which is promising for the Yanks

 

You are confident about it. Not sure of it.

 

Why did his FB velocity dip to 93.2 last year, from 94.2 he year before and 94.3 the year before that, and 95.1 the year before that?

 

He still throws very hard to any mortal man, but his once elite arm has now become merely really good. If he doesn't have good command with it (he doesn't) then his otherwise decent secondary pitches are less effective and overall he's just a decent pitcher. He's nowhere near as good as the more complete pitchers the Yankees have had in similar roles in the past (he's not David Cone or Mike Mussina or David Wells), who were all consistent command pitchers with the ability to outsmart opponents and bear down in tough situations. He just doesn't seem to be capable of actually pitching. He's a thrower.

[Dipre]

Even if you take out the span of time when Eiland was gone, Burnett still went 10-11 with a 4.56 ERA last season. I don't understand what makes anyone think that he will bounce back.

 

Since 2006, his K:BB ratio has regressed each year, his ERA has regressed, his K/9 has significantly regressed, and hitters have increased their contact rate on balls thrown out of the strike zone by 17% in just 2 seasons. His BABIP was in a normalized level. I just don't see how you can be sure that he's going to bounce back when he is trending downward and there is no physical injury to attribute to the trend.

 

And also - Eiland isn't even there anymore. If Burnett needs Eiland to wipe his ass when he takes a dump to pitch well, what's he going to do this year??

 

It's funny how quick Yankee fans are to qualify their excuses as valid when there are no injuries involved. A lot of players have personal problems, and saying that the reason he pitched poorly was because of personal issues or Dave Eiland not being is nothing but rationalization and assumption. There is no reason to buy into what either of you say (yes, Jacko and Divinity, two known homers) as fact.

 

His average velocity declined for the third straight year, however, he had a pretty high BABIP and his K rate declined significantly, and it has been on a downward trend for four years, along with his velocity. His BB/9 actually improved from 2009, but an increased BABIP, decreased LOB% and increased HR/FB% pretty much justify his problems last year.

 

Not having his binky or a divorce don't justify loss of velocity or wildness (when he was even wilder in 2009). Rationalize all you want, but Burnett simply isn't that good, and he's declining fast.

 

If it was a Red Sox pitcher with these types of trouble, you'd be proclaiming the end of his effectiveness, so why don't you Yankee fans have at least some semblance of objectivity?

Everyone here agrees that Beckett is a question mark, and he sure as hell has a better chance of bouncing back than Burnett, and no one says they're "sure" he will. Sure because of what? What information do you, Joe fan, have that makes you so "sure"?

 

I will say this again, for the "Over 9,000th" time, no one here is a talent evaluator. You are sure of nothing.

[Ravenous916]

didn't take the time to do the research, but how many yanks fans think burnett will rebound and beckett won't? and how many sox fans think beckett will rebound and burnett won't?

 

wondering out loud...

[Dipre]

They may both bounce back, either of them may bounce back, or neither could bounce back, but how the hell would anyone here have any semblance of a clue of which one of them will or won't?

[yeszir]

They may both bounce back' date=' either of them may bounce back, or neither could bounce back, but how the hell would anyone here have any semblance of a clue of which one of them will or won't?[/quote']

 

He didn't ask "who knows which will bounce back". He asked for opinions.

[Ravenous916]

He didn't ask "who knows which will bounce back". He asked for opinions.

 

right! since when do people who post on a forum get sick of people's opinions?

 

I'm always too subtle.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even if you take out the span of time when Eiland was gone, Burnett still went 10-11 with a 4.56 ERA last season. I don't understand what makes anyone think that he will bounce back.

 

Since 2006, his K:BB ratio has regressed each year, his ERA has regressed, his K/9 has significantly regressed, and hitters have increased their contact rate on balls thrown out of the strike zone by 17% in just 2 seasons. His BABIP was in a normalized level. I just don't see how you can be sure that he's going to bounce back when he is trending downward and there is no physical injury to attribute to the trend.

 

And also - Eiland isn't even there anymore. If Burnett needs Eiland to wipe his ass when he takes a dump to pitch well, what's he going to do this year??

 

Burnett has always been a bit of a head case. You remove the guy all of a sudden who is working on your mechanics and most pitchers are fine. Well, we all know AJ is a bit weak in terms of mental toughness. Also, his wife left him. Regardless, nothing about his stuff says that he is a 6ERA pitcher, like he was from June 1 on. Prior to June, he was 6-2 with an ERA in the mid 3's. Afterwards, he was 4-13 with an ERA over 6. Something changed acutely. His stuff is still top notch, he isnt injured, his personal stuff is behind him, and he will have a pitching coach noted for being big on mechanics. If he was complaining of a barking elbow or shoulder or has a massive drop in velo, then I would be on board with you. But his velo dropped a slight amount from last yr and he had a sudden, drastic turn for the worse. I think he rebounds, as I think Beckett does, to an ERA around 4

[Dojji]

You've given us no reason to believe he will improve and several reasons to believe he will continue to be what he always has been -- talented but inconsistent.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well even after Eiland came back, he posted a 5.26 ERA. I guess I just don't understand what you're claiming his problem was, other than the alleged divorce (which his Agent denied was even going on).

 

So Eiland isn't the reason, as shown by his stats from June 30 - end of the season.

 

He and his wife, per his agent, weren't going through a divorce, and his agent even said that Colin has "no idea what he's talking about".

 

So, what's going to be different from 2010 to 2011 that would indicate better performance?

[yankees228]

All excuses aside, it isn't crazy to think that he just had a bad year in 2010, and that he might revert back to his 2007-2009 level of performance in 2011. It's far from a sure thing, and he could easily repeat his 2010 performance this year, but an improvement is a realistic possibility.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't think anyone is arguing that he has the potential for improvement. I'll agree with that, but the thing I don't agree with is calling it a sure thing.

[yankees228]

I don't think anyone is calling it a sure thing - Jacko is merely predicting an improvement.

 

He was slightly unlucky last year in some areas, mainly his BABIP and LOB%. But his problem in 2010 (and what was different in this year compared to other years) is his curveball. Here are his curveball run values, according to fangraphs...

 

2007: 13.9

2008: 13

2009: 16

2010: -3.9

 

Unfortunately fangraphs doesn't have the horizontal and vertical movement numbers for his curveball in 2010, but I'm willing to bet it's worse. This likely led to more contact on pitches outside the zone (63.7 in 2010 compared to 47.3 career average) which caused less swinging strikes (7.9 compared to 10.1 career average). With this we get less strikeouts (6.99 K/9 compared to 8.23 K/9 career average), and less overall effectiveness.

 

In a new year, with a new pitching coach, it's possible that AJ can rediscover his curveball, which will likely lead to a significant improvement in 2011.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

How can you say it's a sure thing Jacko? Did he like clear things up with his divorce? Is that your explaination to why he'll bounce back and "sure" of it? Come on now you know your baseball but you say some ridiculous stuff sometimes. He has the potential to bounce back but what's your proof? Just curious, are you also sure if the Sox lose on opening day and Yankees win it won't be the "final nail in the coffin" for the Sox?

[Dipre]

He didn't ask "who knows which will bounce back". He asked for opinions.

 

That is an opinion. There's not enough to go on to make an educated guess on which of them can or can't bounce back, is there not enough opinion in there?

 

I'm more interested in knowing what's your opinion.

 

Give the man what he's asking for.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I see no indications that Burnett will turn it on and be a high 3 low 4 ERA guy next year. If he pulls his ERA down to 4.50 I'll be impressed to be honest. His curveball, while in 2009 was at 16 runs above average, was at -3.9 in 2010. Not sure if it's mechanics or location, but if he can't fix that, he clearly doesn't have any other pitches that can sustain effectiveness over the course of a season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

As for Beckett - his fastball got raked last year. From 2007 - 2009, his fastball's runs above average was 17.8, 18.7, and 9.2. Then, in 2010, it dropped to -14.5. His curveball also dropped 4.8 runs above average in comparison to 2009. Last time his wFB was below 0 was in 2006 when he posted a 5.01 ERA. Gotta get that fastball working and stop throwing that cutter so damn much.

[Dipre]

I don't think anyone is calling it a sure thing - Jacko is merely predicting an improvement.

 

"He will bounce back, i am sure of it"is not calling it a sure thing?

 

 

Well i'll be damned.

[Dipre]

I don't think anyone is calling it a sure thing - Jacko is merely predicting an improvement.

 

"He will bounce back, i am sure of it"is not calling it a sure thing?

 

 

Well i'll be damned.

[yankees228]

I think you're taking that too literally. He's just very confident that Burnett will bounce back, and despite the definitive language, I'm willing to bet that Jacko realizes there's no way he can be 100% sure (because, well, it's obvious). But I'm sure he can clarify this for us.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Well when Jacko is "sure" about something he gets his way. Rememer that 95% Lee will go to the yankees. How did that go? Man, it's going to suck facing the Yankees and Cliff Lee.....

 

Oh wait.