The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[a700hitter]

Looking at the hit tracker for 2010, he would have hit 22 HRs at Citifield. Not exactly "light tower power."

[Keeper]

Here was your question:

 

It was a bit snarky ...no? The Sox have played Philly and I watch every Sox game, so I have seen him play. I've watched other Philly games too. I answered your question and you reply with name-calling?

 

Trying to make me out to be the bad guy, huh? You've beaten this tactic to death.

 

You claimed Werth's power numbers are inflated. I would defy anyone who has ever actually seen him play to make this claim. You also said you've been to Philly. Well and dandy, but going to a park doesn't, in any way, legitimize your claim.

 

If you look at his HitTracker for the last 3 seasons, you'll see that Werth does, in fact, have power to all fields.

 

Since 2007 with the Phillies, Werth has hit 51 HRs at home and 44 on the road. Not much of a difference.

[Keeper]

Looking at the hit tracker for 2010' date=' he would have hit 22 HRs at Citifield. Not exactly "light tower power."[/quote']

 

You mean if he played all of his games there? How many would have gone out of Fenway? Werth does have light-tower power. I guarantee you most scouts would agree with me.

[Keeper]

Sorry for the triple post, but anyone remember this blast in Toronto from Werth? Up into the 5th deck.

[a700hitter]

You mean if he played all of his games there? How many would have gone out of Fenway? Werth does have light-tower power. I guarantee you most scouts would agree with me.

It depends on the height of the balls hit to LF, but after a quick look at the tracker, it seems that at most 24 would have gone out of Fenway. I have no idea how many of the balls to LF would have been high enough to clear the wall.

[GoBruins2011]

What numbers do you use to back up your point? Show me something from one of the many sites that do statistics or I will continue to think you're just talking out of your ass.

 

EDIT: You may think Crawford is better. I would argue there's a very good chance he's overrated because of his speed.

 

He sucked ass In LA. Hit well in hitting friendly Philly. And was always playing in the NL. Theres my stats.

[GoBruins2011]

Looking at the hit tracker for 2010' date=' he would have hit 22 HRs at Citifield. Not exactly "light tower power."[/quote']

 

You can't reason with un reasonable sunshiners bro. Let them see a healthy Mike Cameron hit 240-260 with 180 k's and miss play alot of balls in CF. Let them see the offense and defense struggle.

 

I'll say it again. Facts are facts they lost out on Tiexiera over a few mil and Lars Anderson. Then a year later they miss they playoffs and lose a few hundred million in playoff revenue so the joke really is on them not us. I say f*** them let them shop at used car lots while everyone else gets mercedes and such. The ratings will continue to tank and then they can either sell the team or keep it and lose money or best of it all fire the GM already. We got the Patriots Bruins and Celtics doing the right thing.. Who needs the Redsox anymore? Jokes on them.

[Palodios]

Facts are facts? Mike Lowell had a bigger impact on Texeira than Lars Anderson, and so did Scott Boras. And who hit/fielded better this year, Arod+Tex or Youk/Beltre?

[GoBruins2011]

Facts are facts? Mike Lowell had a bigger impact on Texeira than Lars Anderson' date=' and so did Scott Boras. And who hit/fielded better this year, Arod+Tex or Youk/Beltre?[/quote']

 

Who went to the playoffs?

[Palodios]

I'm arguing the quality of players at 1B/3B. Focus on the discussion please.

[example1]

The stats that have been cited in this thread don't tell the whole story. There are other stats and facts to be considered.

 

Crawford has been a very consistent player for much longer than Werth. In fact, he has almost twice as many career ABs as Werth and he is 3 years younger than Werth. In fact Werth has only had 3 seasons worth discussing.

 

Until 2008, he was a part time 4th OFer type. Since 2008, he has been blending into the background on the best offensive team in the NL. They have Utley, Howard, Rollins, and Burrell (in 2008). In 2008, the all-time great, Pat Burrell had a better season. I am sure he is available at a much cheaper price than either Crawford or Werth.

 

Werth's power stats have been inflated by playing on the best NL offensive team that plays in a bandbox.

Managers do not go into a Philly series saying that they don't want to let Werth beat them. Managers in the AL know that the way to beat Tampa is to keep Crawford off the bases. That's the game plan, and it has been the game plan since Crawford has been in the league starting in 2002.

At age 28 with twice as many career plate appearances as Werth, it can be argued that Crawford is just entering his prime.

I'd much rather offer a 6 year contract to Crawford than a 4 year contract to Werth. In short, Crawford is a superstar with superstar skills. The choice isn't even close IMO. His speed and base stealing ability alone is a lethal weapon that few in the game possess. IMO if Crawford's agent doesn't get him 50% more than Werth, he is a quack.

 

This debate really does remind me of the 1977 choice between Joe Rudi and Reggie Jackson (although Jackson and Crawford are very different types of players). One went on to the Hall of Fame and the other is largely forgotten. That's how I view Crawford and Werth ending up.

 

Really good post a700. As I said in mine, Crawford strikes me as a better option but the numbers say Werth. Though to be fair, I used Baseball Reference for my stats and just noticed that Fangraphs disagrees (about WAR at least).

 

WAR aside (or, indeterminate) I still like the numbers that I've seen from Werth the past few years better than Crawford's.

 

I don't think Werth quite gets the love here that he deserves. He really is a good fielder with a very good arm. He's pretty fast and a very good athlete. Also, if the Yankees get Cliff Lee they will have two of the best LHP in baseball. Add the other good LHPs in the AL East and I think Werth's career .944 OPS vs. LHP might prove more useful than Crawford's .697. Crawford looks pretty bad against LHP. For $20m a guy should be pretty balanced, IMO.

 

A couple positive points for Crawford:

 

--He's a natural LF and that's actually what the Sox need

--He's quite familiar with LF at Fenway

--He and Ellsbury would be really fun to watch

 

I think it is a good choice to have between those two players. I think either will prove useful. I hope if the Sox choose Werth fans will give him a chance. He's the type of player that Boston fans could really like. He plays through injuries, he hustles his ass off, he's scruffy but a great athlete. He goes about his work pretty quietly and has performed on the biggest stages. If he were the only FA available I think many Sox fans would be eager to get him. Of course, Crawford is an attractive alternative.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Who went to the playoffs?

 

There are 25 people on the MLB roster, not 2

[redsoxrules]

Sorry for the triple post' date=' but anyone remember this blast in Toronto from Werth? Up into the 5th deck.

 

Werth also hit a opposite HR in san fransisco in the post season , 1 of only 3 hitters to do so in 2010 at san fran by an opposing team RH

[a700hitter]

Really good post a700. As I said in mine' date=' Crawford [i']strikes me[/i] as a better option but the numbers say Werth. Though to be fair, I used Baseball Reference for my stats and just noticed that Fangraphs disagrees (about WAR at least).

 

WAR aside (or, indeterminate) I still like the numbers that I've seen from Werth the past few years better than Crawford's.

 

I don't think Werth quite gets the love here that he deserves. He really is a good fielder with a very good arm. He's pretty fast and a very good athlete. Also, if the Yankees get Cliff Lee they will have two of the best LHP in baseball. Add the other good LHPs in the AL East and I think Werth's career .944 OPS vs. LHP might prove more useful than Crawford's .697. Crawford looks pretty bad against LHP. For $20m a guy should be pretty balanced, IMO.

 

A couple positive points for Crawford:

 

--He's a natural LF and that's actually what the Sox need

--He's quite familiar with LF at Fenway

--He and Ellsbury would be really fun to watch

 

I think it is a good choice to have between those two players. I think either will prove useful. I hope if the Sox choose Werth fans will give him a chance. He's the type of player that Boston fans could really like. He plays through injuries, he hustles his ass off, he's scruffy but a great athlete. He goes about his work pretty quietly and has performed on the biggest stages. If he were the only FA available I think many Sox fans would be eager to get him. Of course, Crawford is an attractive alternative.

I'm not going to complain about getting either one of them, but I think it would be a mistake not to sign Crawford. As far as giving Werth a chance, he'll be no different than any other big $ FA. He'll be under a microscope from the beginning.

 

We've got more needs than just an OFer at this point, and I have to say that I am getting a bit anxious waiting for stuff to start happening.

[example1]

We've got more needs than just an OFer at this point' date=' and I have to say that I am getting a bit anxious waiting for stuff to start happening.[/quote']

 

I am too, but I'm actually heartened by the silence currently. This FO knows what they have to do, even if GOBRUINS2011 doesn't think so.

 

Hell, I wouldn't be pissed off if they didn't sign either and went after Cliff Lee, or if they made a move for Hanley Ramirez or Justin Upton or someone else we haven't discussed. There's a lot of ways they could go to make this team better.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Trading for Hanley would be the best move this team could make.

[example1]

I'm not going to complain about getting either one of them' date=' but I think it would be a mistake not to sign Crawford. [/quote']

 

As for this comment, I always read these kinds of statements as "get him at all costs", which I disagree with. If Crawford is being offered $22m AAV by the Angels I don't expect the Sox to beat it and I won't view it as a mistake to not get Crawford. That type of money doesn't free them up for other acquisitions, extensions, etc., and I wouldn't be comfortable paying Crawford $5m/yr more than Werth if I can make strong arguments for getting either. It wouldn't make sense.

 

If Crawford's cost is way more than his worth, it won't make sense no matter how much people want it to and the Sox FO won't get Crawford, no matter how mad that makes Patriots fans.

[a700hitter]

Trading for Hanley would be the best move this team could make.

I'm in for that, but he is the only Marlins player worth watching. Their attendance would take a big hit. To justify moving Hanley, they'd have to clean out the Sox farm system. That being said, I'd empty the farm system for Hanley.

[a700hitter]

As for this comment, I always read these kinds of statements as "get him at all costs", which I disagree with. If Crawford is being offered $22m AAV by the Angels I don't expect the Sox to beat it and I won't view it as a mistake to not get Crawford. That type of money doesn't free them up for other acquisitions, extensions, etc., and I wouldn't be comfortable paying Crawford $5m/yr more than Werth if I can make strong arguments for getting either. It wouldn't make sense.

 

If Crawford's cost is way more than his worth, it won't make sense no matter how much people want it to and the Sox FO won't get Crawford, no matter how mad that makes Patriots fans.

I don't know what you mean by "get him at all costs". Any team that signs him is going to be signing him for what they think he is worth. Hopefully, that is the Red Sox. I do think he is worth much more than Werth. He's younger and more talented.

 

Edit: I'll be thinking it was a mistake if he stays in the AL and continues to be a Red Sox wrecking ball.

[redsoxrules]

I dont understand all the hate on Werth , the Dude is a beast and would benefit big time with the green monster. Crawfords power would decrease playing in fenway

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I dont understand all the hate on Werth ' date=' the Dude is a beast and would benefit big time with the green monster. Crawfords power would decrease playing in fenway[/quote']

 

It's not to much that they're hating on Werth they just rather see Crawford with the sox.

[a700hitter]

It's not to much that they're hating on Werth they just rather see Crawford with the sox.

Exactly. If he read the thread, a lot of us would be happy with either one. However, Crawford would by far have the bigger impact. He is the much better player.

[ORS]

Exactly. If he read the thread' date=' a lot of us would be happy with either one. However, [b']Crawford would by far have the bigger impact. He is the much better player.[/b]

Statisically, there's not a lot to support the magnitude of difference you keep suggesting. I think that is the core of the question, "why the hate", and not actual hate.

[Dojji]

Kevin Youkilis says hi

 

Yeah except that that's not really the same situation at all, and Youk has been hitting at an elite level for 3 straight years. If Werth had 3 straight years where he'd demonstrated that level of consistency I wouldn't be nearly as nervous about him.

 

I don't think he's bad at all, not really, I just worry we'll pay for "elite" and wind up- with "pretty good."

[example1]

Statisically' date=' there's not a lot to support the magnitude of difference you keep suggesting. I think that is the core of the question, "why the hate", and not actual hate.[/quote']

 

I've looked at the numbers over and over and don't see a huge difference. Crawford started earlier, but he played for a horrible team that needed him to play very young. Not the case with Werth.

 

Werth was injured on and off for a few years, and was drafted as a catcher, so he took awhile to fully develop. However, when he did develop he was a key player for arguably the best team in the NL. Philly, in my opinion, is as similar a team to the Red Sox as possible. They play in a media intensive environment, they have a smaller stadium, they have a deep and powerful lineup that might either inflate numbers or hide genuine production amongst the "greats" like Howard, Utley, Rollins, etc.,

 

Ultimately, for me, it comes down to how much each is asking, that's it. Whoever wants less and a more reasonable contract is who I target. In each of those areas I think Werth probably has Crawford beat. Knowing Crawford and his goodwill toward Tampa, I wouldn't be shocked if he wanted to get out of the AL East and go somewhere that doesn't play Tampa too often... again, LAA seems like a good destination for him.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Yeah except that that's not really the same situation at all, and Youk has been hitting at an elite level for 3 straight years. If Werth had 3 straight years where he'd demonstrated that level of consistency I wouldn't be nearly as nervous about him.

 

I don't think he's bad at all, not really, I just worry we'll pay for "elite" and wind up- with "pretty good."

 

I really don't think anyone is going to end up paying "elite" for Werth (IE 100 mil). I'll say it again, Bay barely scraped together 64mil, and I really don't see Werth getting a whole lot more than that. Also he's had 4 straight years of .860+ OPS and has gotten better in each of those seasons.

 

If they plan on keeping Ellsbury then Werth makes a lot of sense. If Rasmus/Upton are available then maybe Crawford makes more sense. IMO Crawford/Ellsbury in the same lineup with Pedroia in between them wastes a lot of their speed value.

[example1]

When it comes right down to it, is there a single one of us who would be against getting BOTH of these players and having JD Drew disappear right now? I like Drew okay, but Werth is the RF that Drew kept people waiting for. If the Sox had Drew's $14m to spend I would propose getting Werth for RF and Crawford for LF.

[example1]

If they plan on keeping Ellsbury then Werth makes a lot of sense. If Rasmus/Upton are available then maybe Crawford makes more sense. IMO Crawford/Ellsbury in the same lineup with Pedroia in between them wastes a lot of their speed value.

 

This is an interesting observation that I noticed too. I think they would be amazing to watch together, but they wouldn't bat 1-2, and Ellsbury's most value seems to be from the leadoff position.

 

Your post speaks to the difficulty of the Sox current situation. They have the ingredients for a great team, between current talent, money to spend, and a deep and rich farm system that could be moved for multiple pieces. However, they are also at a really important point where decisions they make now only make sense within the context of other moves happening or not happening.

[ORS]

I really don't think anyone is going to end up paying "elite" for Werth (IE 100 mil). I'll say it again, Bay barely scraped together 64mil, and I really don't see Werth getting a whole lot more than that. Also he's had 4 straight years of .860+ OPS and has gotten better in each of those seasons.

 

If they plan on keeping Ellsbury then Werth makes a lot of sense. If Rasmus/Upton are available then maybe Crawford makes more sense. IMO Crawford/Ellsbury in the same lineup with Pedroia in between them wastes a lot of their speed value.

I'd have Ellsbury hit closer to the bottom of the order until he can show a little more selectiveness and/or and ability to do something with a pitcher's pitch. It's frustrating watching him chase the first pitch on the edge of the zone and hit a weak grounder or IF pop-fly, particularly when he's leading off.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Personally I think the best move would be to trade Ellsbury while he's still cheap to maximize his value. If the Mets/Padres would take a package of Ellsbury/Kelly/Lowrie(Iglesias) for Wright or Gonzalez then I think they should make that trade. It frees up Kalish to be the CF and allows them to sign Crawford for the leadoff spot. Giving a lineup of

 

1. Crawford LF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Gonzalez/Wright 1B/3B

4. Youkillis 1B/3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Drew RF

7. Lowrie/Scutaro SS

8. Kalish/Cameron CF

9. Salty C

 

Bottom of the lineup is a bit iffy but I could also see it working out extremely well