The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Will617]

Werth hit in a bandbox for a home park' date=' was surrounded by two MVP's and Chase Utley. Was a fairly late Bloomer and I have read some stuff recently that he isn't a gem off the field/in the clubhouse. I think Bay had better track record and had less red flags then Werth(although Bay's was an health issue, but I would have to imagine the issues I have brought up could come close to = a health risk) and Werth is going to cost more to sign. Not sure I see it. I think it's reporters connecting the dots without actually considering the details. But it's the day after Thanksgiving, so them being lazy is fine [/quote']

 

Rollins is not an MVP caliber player, Utley is.

Werth's ISO at home is .215, on the road is .205.

He hits for a higher average at home (.281 to .263), but most hitters hit better at home.

[Palodios]

Rollins is not an MVP caliber player, Utley is.

Werth's ISO at home is .215, on the road is .205.

He hits for a higher average at home (.281 to .263), but most hitters hit better at home.

 

Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Victorino, Rollins, Werth... that's probably the strongest hitting lineup in the NL.

[BSN07]

Rollins is not an MVP caliber player, Utley is.

Werth's ISO at home is .215, on the road is .205.

He hits for a higher average at home (.281 to .263), but most hitters hit better at home.

 

Rollins won the MVP in 2007. It's not like it was 1997. I'm just saying my feeling is out of all the big FA's, Werth is going to be the player you look back in a couple years from now and maybe wish they hadn't signed him. I could be totally wrong. Werth has me as concerned or more the Bay did at this time last year.

 

 

edit: I also have some concerns with Crawford. Just not as many as Werth.

[Keeper]

IMO Werth>Crawford

 

the only thing that crawford has over Werth is speed .

Werth hits for power and is an excellent fielder with a canon for an arm

 

This.

[Spudboy]

I don't think the Sox will sign Werth or Crawford. Too much money, too many years.

 

But in the unlikely scenario that Crawford signs, he'll be the best (and most exciting) left fielder the Sox have had since Yaz.

 

No offense to Rice and Gator.

[The Celtbot]

Anybody else find it ironic that V-Mart thinks he has a better chance to win a title with Detroit than Boston? He said something along those lines the other day and from what I can recall from last year, Detroit was .500 team last year? Boston managed to barely miss the playoffs and that largely had to do with the amount of injuries we accumulated.

[Palodios]

He's just hyping his team. They all do that when they get a new contract.

[ORS]

I don't think the Sox will sign Werth or Crawford. Too much money, too many years.

 

But in the unlikely scenario that Crawford signs, he'll be the best (and most exciting) left fielder the Sox have had since Yaz.

 

No offense to Rice and Gator.

Are you talking about in the field? Because, if bat work counts, then Manny was better than all Sox LF other than the Splendid Splinter.

[Spudboy]

Are you talking about in the field? Because' date=' if bat work counts, then Manny was better than all Sox LF other than the Splendid Splinter.[/quote']

 

I'm speaking as one of three Talksox members that actually saw Yaz play.

 

Bait someone else.

[Palodios]

Seemed like a perfectly reasonable question. Love him, or hate him, but there aren't a whole lot of LF I'd rather have than Manny.

[a700hitter]

Seemed like a perfectly reasonable question. Love him' date=' or hate him, but there aren't a whole lot of LF I'd rather have than Manny.[/quote']LF has been the marquee position for the Red Sox. It has been a great tradition. Even Greenie, who had a short tenure, was pretty darn good. I was them all except Teddy Ballgame. None were better all around players than Yaz. He was at his best when the game was important, and he seemed to take his game to another level against the best pitchers. A soft thrower like Steve Mingori who was a left handed bum who couldn't break a pane of glass had more success against Yaz than the hardest throwers in the game.

[ORS]

I'm speaking as one of three Talksox members that actually saw Yaz play.

 

Bait someone else.

One, while I was just a kid, I saw Yaz play (on TV).

 

Two, let's drop the assumption about my motive and look at the question I asked again. Show me where I'm baiting you.

[Spudboy]

Seemed like a perfectly reasonable question. Love him' date=' or hate him, but there aren't a whole lot of LF I'd rather have than Manny.[/quote']

 

Are you asking me a question?

 

If you are, Manny WAS one of the best RHH I've ever seen. And learned how to play left field in Fenway.

 

So what is your question? And, Were you sitting in the stands in 1967?

[a700hitter]

1961-1970 Yaz was different than latter day Yaz. Late 60's Yaz was the best player in the game. He played in a pitching dominated era, and those who played with him who had also played in the NL like Ray Culp said that Yaz was as good as any of the NL stars of the 60's.

[Spudboy]

One, while I was just a kid, I saw Yaz play (on TV).

 

Two, let's drop the assumption about my motive and look at the question I asked again. Show me where I'm baiting you.

 

"One". Congratulations. You had the opportunity to see (to some degree) a truly great player.

 

"Two". I've stated my opinion of Manny numerous times on Talksox. Review this thread if in doubt.

 

 

And "Three". Being an intelligent, well educated person is a responsibility. And an opportunity.

If you are more knowledgeable about a topic, (emphasis on MORE), all would be better served if you would explain your opinion and/or the facts to members that you view as inferior or of lessor intellect. Rather than trying to demean them. You are a Father, I hope you have some experience in these situations.

[SCM33]

Rollins won the MVP in 2007. It's not like it was 1997. I'm just saying my feeling is out of all the big FA's, Werth is going to be the player you look back in a couple years from now and maybe wish they hadn't signed him. I could be totally wrong. Werth has me as concerned or more the Bay did at this time last year.

 

 

edit: I also have some concerns with Crawford. Just not as many as Werth.

 

I echo this statement.

 

How do you not drive in 100 runs in that lineup? I know its a "dated" stat, but I just dont understand how that happens. I think they will end up regretting signing him.

 

I also agree with the Crawford statement. Do you really want Ellsbury, Drew, Crawford and Ortiz (all lefties) all in the same lineup going against Sabathia, Lee (assuming they get him) and Pettitte?

 

I really dont like this FA market. The sox arguably had the 2 best offensive free agents in their hands and let them walk. They were better off resigning V-Mart...offering Pat Burrell a short term deal.....picking up some bullpen arms and trying to trade for Adrian Gonzalez.

[ORS]

On "three". Since you have taken it upon yourself to call into question not only my motives in this thread (the baiting comment), but my role as father to my children (how dare you), without a cross word said by me in your direction, I'd like to know where this is coming from.

 

As for demeaning an opinion different than yours, please. You are certainly on high ground with your routine ridicule of newer statistics that present contrary evaluation of player than what you believe to be their value. Can we drop the phony sanctimony, please?

[SCM33]

Do we ever stay on topic?

[a700hitter]

Do we ever stay on topic?

It will be easier for all of us when the FO starts to implement its off season plan. I expect that something will happen in the next week before 2011 tickets go on sale.

[example1]

Werth vs. Crawford. I think the Sox will ultimately end up with Werth.

 

Here's how I think of it:

 

--Both are very good players in very different ways

--I am more excited about Crawford

--Most people are more excited about Crawford

--Crawford will cost more. Probably a lot more.

--Crawford's contract will last longer.

--Werth is probably more affordable

--Even though Werth is older and less 'flashy' than Crawford, he's still a very good fielder and a dangerous bat.

--Werth's skill set ages better and probably represents less risk

--Crawford represents "going big", Werth represents strengthening the core of the team.

 

I would be immediately happier with Crawford, think they will go for Werth, and expect that it might mean "going big" in another area.

 

In terms of their production the past 4 seasons, I see a few things:

 

2007-2010:

Crawford: 562 G, 2392 PA

Werth: 543 G, 2086 PA

 

 

TOTAL WAR (which includes defense)

Crawford: 14.4

Werth: 15.4

 

WAR per-162

Crawford: 4.4

Werth: 5.3

 

TOTAL STATS

Crawford | .303/.351/.457/.807 | 115 OPS+

Werth | .282/.380/.506/.885 | 131 OPS+

 

Honestly, it's a pretty close call.

 

Crawford outdoes Werth in SB and in Total Bases, and is probably better defensively.

 

Werth outdoes Crawford in overall power and plate discipline (.380 OBP) and is a good defensive player. Werth also strikes out more and has a lower AVG (which explains the difference in TB ).

 

In other words, Crawford goes up looking to swing and it is reflected in his higher AVG and lower OBP.

 

From a statistical point of view, I think Werth is the more valuable player. Add in the fact that he's going to be cheaper, is fine on both sides of the ball, and his game isn't as dependent on speed, and he's probably the Red Sox guy.

 

 

As much as I love Crawford I'm also terrified of an older, injured version of the same player costing $20m per year for 6 years. I think poorly of teams that get themselves in those situations and would think poorly of the Sox for doing that too.

 

With regards to Crawford being the more exciting and revenue creating player, I think what the Sox need is to win, and they need to win convincingly. If they put out a team that was on pace to win 100+ then they would be must-see baseball, whether Werth or Crawford are out there. If they are consistently dominant, people will be interested and tune in.

 

Overall, I think they need to 1) get one of the two OFs, 2) make a significant trade, and 3) still plan on signing Adrian Gonzalez next year when he's a FA or at the deadline if the prospects match. That would be a young exciting and good team. I think the current team is primed for that scenario to happen if they play their cards right.

 

Knowing this FO, that three-part approach seems more likely if they sign Werth rather than Crawford.

[Keeper]

Very nice breakdown, example.

[Will617]

Rollins won the MVP in 2007. It's not like it was 1997. I'm just saying my feeling is out of all the big FA's, Werth is going to be the player you look back in a couple years from now and maybe wish they hadn't signed him. I could be totally wrong. Werth has me as concerned or more the Bay did at this time last year.

 

 

edit: I also have some concerns with Crawford. Just not as many as Werth.

 

In 2007, Alex Rodriguez was an MVP contender, Derek Jeter was playing quite well, etc etc. Rollins does not have the power or the hitting skills to be much more than an above-average shortstop anymore. Having a .300 OBP doesn't do much for Werth's ability to get RBIs.

Utley and Howard do get on base a lot, but it's not like the Sox lack players with OBP capabilities.

[BSN07]

Anyone on board for a 2 or 3 year offer to Konerko at around 10M per? He could play 1B and next season and could DH the last two years. Just bored and kicking stuff around.

[GoBruins2011]

If the Redsox get Werth it will be a glaring mistake. The guy is a NL player and will be overpaid due to Boras. Crawford knows the AL east all to well. But we have Theo Epstein as GM so he doesn't understand is a different game. See Renteria See JD Drew ect. Both guys numbers dropped in AL.

[JimEdHOF2009]

If the Redsox get Werth it will be a glaring mistake. The guy is a NL player and will be overpaid due to Boras. Crawford knows the AL east all to well. But we have Theo Epstein as GM so he doesn't understand is a different game. See Renteria See JD Drew ect. Both guys numbers dropped in AL.

 

I agree 100% with the above post. Werth is a solid player..like Lackey, who will be VASTLY overpaid at 5 years 15-18 mill per. If you are going to spend that kind of money in THIS FA market there are two players worth the investment..Crawford and Lee.

[JimEdHOF2009]

Anyone on board for a 2 or 3 year offer to Konerko at around 10M per? He could play 1B and next season and could DH the last two years. Just bored and kicking stuff around.

 

Konerko and Reinsdorf are very tight. If the Sox are going to put a 1 or 2 year deal on the table, Konerko will get that from White Sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

Konerko got an arb offer and will likely make about $13-$15 million for year 1. If the sox want to pry him away, it would have to be on a 3yr $40-$45 mil deal since the guy did just put up an MVP caliber season

[GoBruins2011]

I agree 100% with the above post. Werth is a solid player..like Lackey' date=' who will be VASTLY overpaid at 5 years 15-18 mill per. If you are going to spend that kind of money in THIS FA market there are two players worth the investment..Crawford and Lee.[/quote']

 

Thanks. Heres what I would do. Assuming all the things I read about Carlos Pena are true 1 year from Nationals why don't we give him 1 year 8 mil with incentives? That gets us to next year with A-GONE then you stick Crawford in left all of the sudden Redsox are a 95+ win team. And you spend what? 28 mil in salary this year when almost 50 is avalable? You can even get 2 bullpen guys and still be well under.

 

But Jayson Werth? Guy was average at best in Los Angelas then took off in the hitting friendly Philadelphia. He's above average at best plus he's a right fielder. Lets give him 90 mil and switch leagues and positions :thumbdown

[BSN07]

Konerko got an arb offer and will likely make about $13-$15 million for year 1. If the sox want to pry him away' date=' it would have to be on a 3yr $40-$45 mil deal since the guy did just put up an MVP caliber season[/quote']

 

I know he had a great year. I thought maybe his age would lower the AAV on any deal 2+ years. But I did some more reading on him and like it was aid I'm not sure CWS let him get away. And I like the idea less if he's in the 15M a year area.

 

Lee still seems to be the best fit.

[Dojji]

Werth vs. Crawford. I think the Sox will ultimately end up with Werth.

 

Here's how I think of it:

 

--Both are very good players in very different ways

--I am more excited about Crawford

--Most people are more excited about Crawford

--Crawford will cost more. Probably a lot more.

--Crawford's contract will last longer.

--Werth is probably more affordable

--Even though Werth is older and less 'flashy' than Crawford, he's still a very good fielder and a dangerous bat.

--Werth's skill set ages better and probably represents less risk

--Crawford represents "going big", Werth represents strengthening the core of the team.

 

I would be immediately happier with Crawford, think they will go for Werth, and expect that it might mean "going big" in another area.

 

In terms of their production the past 4 seasons, I see a few things:

 

2007-2010:

Crawford: 562 G, 2392 PA

Werth: 543 G, 2086 PA

 

 

TOTAL WAR (which includes defense)

Crawford: 14.4

Werth: 15.4

 

WAR per-162

Crawford: 4.4

Werth: 5.3

 

TOTAL STATS

Crawford | .303/.351/.457/.807 | 115 OPS+

Werth | .282/.380/.506/.885 | 131 OPS+

 

Honestly, it's a pretty close call.

 

Crawford outdoes Werth in SB and in Total Bases, and is probably better defensively.

 

Werth outdoes Crawford in overall power and plate discipline (.380 OBP) and is a good defensive player. Werth also strikes out more and has a lower AVG (which explains the difference in TB ).

 

In other words, Crawford goes up looking to swing and it is reflected in his higher AVG and lower OBP.

 

From a statistical point of view, I think Werth is the more valuable player. Add in the fact that he's going to be cheaper, is fine on both sides of the ball, and his game isn't as dependent on speed, and he's probably the Red Sox guy.

 

 

As much as I love Crawford I'm also terrified of an older, injured version of the same player costing $20m per year for 6 years. I think poorly of teams that get themselves in those situations and would think poorly of the Sox for doing that too.

 

With regards to Crawford being the more exciting and revenue creating player, I think what the Sox need is to win, and they need to win convincingly. If they put out a team that was on pace to win 100+ then they would be must-see baseball, whether Werth or Crawford are out there. If they are consistently dominant, people will be interested and tune in.

 

Overall, I think they need to 1) get one of the two OFs, 2) make a significant trade, and 3) still plan on signing Adrian Gonzalez next year when he's a FA or at the deadline if the prospects match. That would be a young exciting and good team. I think the current team is primed for that scenario to happen if they play their cards right.

 

Knowing this FO, that three-part approach seems more likely if they sign Werth rather than Crawford.

 

My prediction, this is going to turn out like last year, when we all debates which one of the two high-priced over 30 FA's the team would sick money into, until both of them signed with teams more determined to overpay for premium talent than the Sox are or should be.

 

In the end, I firmly believe that Ryan Kalish will be ready to be a productive right fielder with 15-20 HR talent and strong baserunning and OBP skills sometime within the next 18 months, and quite possibly on the nearer end of that bad. He was closer than you think to putting up that kind of rate stats this year. That being the case the team is not going to overpay for either player and instead will either find a quick stopgap or, if they like what they're seeing from Kalish, just play the rookie. Apparently Bill James is very high on the kid and it's fairly easy to see why, don't rule out him breaking camp with Boston instead of them shooting for a "now" player.

 

I suspect they'll go for a mid-range right fielder like Brad Hawpe and mix him with Cameron, and solve their hole in left field by slotting J. D. Drew there to give him less ground to cover and cut down on his wear and tear.