The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[a700hitter]

I see that Beltre, another one of Theo's "Colossal failures" and the classic "Banjo hitter" is getting some love over here. Oh where art thou rhet......

 

By the way, i wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole unless they gave him a perpetual "contract year" option, he'll be productive, but not for the price Boras will put on his services.

From what I have heard, he has always played hard. Effort and commitment were never problems for him. I think Fenway may be the perfect ballpark for him. If you remember, at the beginning of the season, you projected certain numbers for him. I projected that his power numbers might even end up higher. I'd search for the post(s), but I am not sure that we have that capability any more. I did call him a banjo hitter when he wasn't going yard and the team was slumping, but that was just to get under your skin. I see that it worked, since that term stuck with you after all these months. Lol!

[Station 13]

early free agent predictions: cliff lee, yankees; carl crawford, angels; jayson werth, red sox; adrian beltre, angels.

 

 

Lee will be a MFY no doubt.

 

I hope we can keep Beltre.

[BSN07]

 

Lee will be a MFY no doubt.

 

I hope we can keep Beltre.

 

I hope they don't give Werth more then 3-4 years.

 

Beltre is going to have to like Boston for him to stay there. I for see a "Lowell" type offer from the Red Sox. If he wants top dollar he is gone.

 

I have read Lee is looking for absolute top dollar. So yes he will probably be a Yankee. Let's just hope Texas has damaged him enough

[a700hitter]

I hope they don't give Werth more then 3-4 years.

 

Beltre is going to have to like Boston for him to stay there. I for see a "Lowell" type offer from the Red Sox. If he wants top dollar he is gone.

 

I have read Lee is looking for absolute top dollar. So yes he will probably be a Yankee. Let's just hope Texas has damaged him enough

What are the other third base options?

[BSN07]

What are the other third base options?

 

There isn't much but there is always the option of moving Youk to 3B and getting a 1B. Konerko/Lee(plan Z) or Pena on a 1 year deal would be ok. I could stand Dunn at 1B for a season as well. Although it's not ideal.

[example1]

There aren't many good 3B options, probably including Beltre.

 

I say that because I think Beltre's contract will probably tie this team up over the longterm in ways they wouldn't want. I see them sticking to their guns with him.

 

In fact, between potentially letting Ortiz go, and probably holding a hard line with V-Mart and Beltre, I see this as being a conflictual offseason (especially on this board).

 

I could see them signing someone like Werth but letting Ortiz and Beltre and Martinez go, to which many will argue that they are taking two steps back and one step forward. If I were them I would try really hard to get another big bat via trade first and then start looking at FAs.

[a700hitter]

There isn't much but there is always the option of moving Youk to 3B and getting a 1B. Konerko/Lee(plan Z) or Pena on a 1 year deal would be ok. I could stand Dunn at 1B for a season as well. Although it's not ideal.

Moving Youk to 3rd is an option. There are more available first basemen.

[a700hitter]

There aren't many good 3B options, probably including Beltre.

 

I say that because I think Beltre's contract will probably tie this team up over the longterm in ways they wouldn't want. I see them sticking to their guns with him.

 

In fact, between potentially letting Ortiz go, and probably holding a hard line with V-Mart and Beltre, I see this as being a conflictual offseason (especially on this board).

 

I could see them signing someone like Werth but letting Ortiz and Beltre and Martinez go, to which many will argue that they are taking two steps back and one step forward. If I were them I would try really hard to get another big bat via trade first and then start looking at FAs.

Ortiz against right handed pitching is still a beast. I'd like to see his games cut down against lefties, who he can't hit anymore. VMart could DH against lefties and catch against righties, getting him into the lineup everyday. Tek could catch when we face lefties. Right handed he is still pretty good. I don't think Vmart will have a huge market, because his catching stinks. The NL will not be interested in him at all, because there is more stealing and little ball in the NL. If Vmart walks, what catchers are available?

[BSN07]

Whether they keep the same pieces around or really overhaul the roster, it will be an interesting off season. I expect a lot of hot debate around here.

 

What's everyone think about having Beltran manning CF/LF for a season(if both Crawford and Werth go elsewhere, or price themselves out)? He's been hitting well lately. And the Mets look like they are gonna clean house. I doubt he would cost a lot if the Sox picked up most of the bill. Which they could very well do with all the $ coming off the books. I can't see the Mets balking at getting rid of his 18M salary next season. I suppose if the Mets were really blowing things up they could see how much it would be to get both Beltran and Reyes. Dojji would be tickled pink because that would most likely lead to a Scutaro(if healthy)/Lowrie combo at 3B for next season

 

This scenario could work well for the Sox. They could field a solid team in 2010 while not hurting themselves with questionable long term deals. Beltran, Scutaro and other will be off the books, leaving plenty of money to pursue Prince, AD or int he unlikely event he's available, Pujols.

 

Not saying this should be the only thing the FO works on this winter. Just a piece.

[BSN07]

Also if Papi really is going to have a bitch fit if he is only back on a one year deal, I think this team really needs to make a push for Adam Dunn to be the DH of the future.

[a700hitter]

Whether they keep the same pieces around or really overhaul the roster, it will be an interesting off season. I expect a lot of hot debate around here.

 

What's everyone think about having Beltran manning CF/LF for a season(if both Crawford and Werth go elsewhere, or price themselves out)? He's been hitting well lately. And the Mets look like they are gonna clean house. I doubt he would cost a lot if the Sox picked up most of the bill. Which they could very well do with all the $ coming off the books. I can't see the Mets balking at getting rid of his 18M salary next season. I suppose if the Mets were really blowing things up they could see how much it would be to get both Beltran and Reyes. Dojji would be tickled pink because that would most likely lead to a Scutaro(if healthy)/Lowrie combo at 3B for next season

 

This scenario could work well for the Sox. They could field a solid team in 2010 while not hurting themselves with questionable long term deals. Beltran, Scutaro and other will be off the books, leaving plenty of money to pursue Prince, AD or int he unlikely event he's available, Pujols.

 

Not saying this should be the only thing the FO works on this winter. Just a piece.

Beltran is a real possibility. With his injury and age, he is no longer a building block for the Mets. He is a huge salary for the Mets who are in financial distress. They would probably give him to us for a cup of Legal Seafood Chowder if we take on his whole salary. I like it as a 1 year move. His offensive woes have been due to missing too much time over the last two seasons. He really can't man CF on a regular basis because of his knee, but he'd be just fine in LF. I like it as a one year commitment. He'd play his ass off too, because he'd be in a walk year. Reyes is still a building block for the team, but if he was available, I'd go for him too.

[example1]

Ortiz against right handed pitching is still a beast. I'd like to see his games cut down against lefties' date=' who he can't hit anymore. VMart could DH against lefties and catch against righties, getting him into the lineup everyday. Tek could catch when we face lefties. Right handed he is still pretty good. I don't think Vmart will have a huge market, because his catching stinks. The NL will not be interested in him at all, because there is more stealing and little ball in the NL. If Vmart walks, what catchers are available?[/quote']

 

If Ortiz is going to be a platoon player then he needs to be paid like one. If he refuses to take that amount then nobody should blame the Red Sox FO for it.

 

Ending up with platoon options on the roster should not be the direction this team moves. It's like a reverse Mike Lowell situation. One year, max. $7m max if that's the situation.

 

I think VMart's catching woes are over-rated. He's definitely not good defensively, but he's been catching for years and clearly plays the position capably enough for another team to put him to good use--even in a part time role.

[a700hitter]

If Ortiz is going to be a platoon player then he needs to be paid like one. If he refuses to take that amount then nobody should blame the Red Sox FO for it.

 

Ending up with platoon options on the roster should not be the direction this team moves. It's like a reverse Mike Lowell situation. One year, max. $7m max if that's the situation.

 

I think VMart's catching woes are over-rated. He's definitely not good defensively, but he's been catching for years and clearly plays the position capably enough for another team to put him to good use--even in a part time role.

I'm only talking about sitting Ortiz against the tougher lefties. He'd still get around 500 PA's hit 30 HRs and knock in around 100 runs.. That's hardly a platoon player. What are thsoe stats worth on the open market? I wasn't suggeting a platoon, but rather the highest and best use of two players. VMart needs occasional breaks behind the plate and he rakes tough left handers which plays right into Ortiz weak spot. As for VMart's woes behind the plate, I don't think they are overblown at all. He absolutely sucks throwing the ball. He's better than Salty, but Salty is really bad in every aspect behind the dish.

 

 

Why are you so sensitive about whether people will blame the FO about things? I really don't give a rats ass about executives. They are the most fungible of commodities in sports other than umpires.

[Interestedobserver]

Beltran would probably be available for 2-3 B-/C prospects. The type that make it look like they got something for him as long as the Sox pay his salary. He has a full no trade clause, but would probably waive it to go to Boston. He should have a good bounceback type year since he's playing for a contract.

 

If the Sox wanted the Mets to pay half, he'd probably take real talent to acquire.

[a700hitter]

Beltran would probably be available for 2-3 B-/C prospects. The type that make it look like they got something for him as long as the Sox pay his salary. He has a full no trade clause, but would probably waive it to go to Boston. He should have a good bounceback type year since he's playing for a contract.

 

If the Sox wanted the Mets to pay half, he'd probably take real talent to acquire.

I think you are right on about this.

[example1]

Why are you so sensitive about whether people will blame the FO about things? I really don't give a rats ass about executives. They are the most fungible of commodities in sports other than umpires.

 

After decades of futility and then two championships in a short time, I see this FO as considerably better than the rest and anything but fungible.

[example1]

Beltran would probably be available for 2-3 B-/C prospects. The type that make it look like they got something for him as long as the Sox pay his salary. He has a full no trade clause, but would probably waive it to go to Boston. He should have a good bounceback type year since he's playing for a contract.

 

If the Sox wanted the Mets to pay half, he'd probably take real talent to acquire.

 

I would be okay with Beltran, but he would be another "buy low" older, expensive player. His upside is very high, but he has to stay healthy and after this season I would hesitate to give up any talent that could be used in other deals for someone more reliable.

[a700hitter]

After decades of futility and then two championships in a short time' date=' I see this FO as considerably better than the rest and anything but fungible.[/quote']The FO WAR is easy to figure out. All you need to do is look at the standings.

[example1]

The FO WAR is easy to figure out. All you need to do is look at the standings.

 

Right, and when we look at the standings--year in and year out--this team is near the top.

 

2010: 9th best record in baseball

2009: 3rd best

2008: 4th best

2007: #1

2006: 11th best record in baseball

2005: 3rd best (tied)

2004: 3rd best

2003: 5th best

 

 

I see a team that is pretty consistently the best or second best team in the toughest division in the sport.

[example1]

Back to Beltran...

 

I could agree with him essentially replacing Ortiz, assuming a deal could be worked out. He could share DH with a number of players like Youkilis, Martinez and Drew, and focus on his health playing LF. If he had a big season he could be a difference making player with something left to prove.

[a700hitter]

Right, and when we look at the standings--year in and year out--this team is near the top.

 

2010: 9th best record in baseball

2009: 3rd best

2008: 4th best

2007: #1

2006: 11th best record in baseball

2005: 3rd best (tied)

2004: 3rd best

2003: 5th best

 

 

I see a team that is pretty consistently the best or second best team in the toughest division in the sport.

You are obsessive about the FO. I didn't say that they weren't doing a good job. In fact, I have said on many occasions that on balance that they are very talented group that is doing a very good job. The key is "on balance". They do make mistakes. Everyone does. Your refusal to acknowledge any mistakes by the FO and your inability to entertain any criticism of the FO is amusing. You've made two posts extolling the virtues of the FO in response to my questioning why you are so concerned about people criticizing the FO. I can't imagine why you are already anticipating criticism of moves that have not yet been made and why the thought of such criticism concerns you. If the FO trades a guy or acquires a guy, some fans will like the move and others will not. The opinions of those who don't like the move are often just as valid as those who like the move. For instance, if the Sox start to build a team around speed, some fans may not like that style of play. Speed teams can win and so can power teams. It's a question of preference. Whether a move improves a team is certainly an issue for debate. The business people that run the FO probably disagree with each other on a regular basis, so I don't think they care if some fans are bashing their moves on a sports forum. The fan and the FO will always have an inherent conflict of interest, because their primary goals are different. The FO is a business that has the goal of maximizing profits. The fans' goal is for the team to win. A smart FO will realize that the best way to be profitable is to win for the fans, because it is the fans' money that makes the profit. To that extent, there is a common interest. Nevertheless, there is an inherent conflict of interest, because it is your dollar that management is looking to get and keep. Why are you so sensitive to even the possibility that the FO might get criticized, Mrs. Epstein? By the way, your son sucks at building a bullpen. It is his weak spot. He does have weak spots. He needs to improve that aspect of his job.

[a700hitter]

Back to Beltran...

 

I could agree with him essentially replacing Ortiz, assuming a deal could be worked out. He could share DH with a number of players like Youkilis, Martinez and Drew, and focus on his health playing LF. If he had a big season he could be a difference making player with something left to prove.

Wouldn't that weaken the offense?

[example1]

Wouldn't that weaken the offense?

 

Not if he returned to form. He would be a player who could play in the OF and run the bases decently. His bat wouldn't be as good but he could offer more overall if totally healthy.

[Dojji]

I think Ortiz has something left in the tank. Not anxious to lose him when all you have to do to keep him is take the option. If Beltran is brought in to replace anyone it's most likely Mike Cameron. At the moment though that's kinda 6 of one, half dozen of the other so I doubt the FO is in on that.

[a700hitter]

Not if he returned to form. He would be a player who could play in the OF and run the bases decently. His bat wouldn't be as good but he could offer more overall if totally healthy.

But wouldn't the offense be much stronger with both of them in the lineup. It's not like Ortiz will be getting a long term deal. To jettison 30 HRs and 100 RBI doesn't seem to make sense.

[a700hitter]

I think Ortiz has something left in the tank. Not anxious to lose him when all you have to do to keep him is take the option. If Beltran is brought in to replace anyone it's most likely Mike Cameron. At the moment though that's kinda 6 of one' date=' half dozen of the other so I doubt the FO is in on that.[/quote']At age 38, Cameron would be a good fit for the 4th OFer slot.

[a700hitter]

The Sox picked up Felipe Lopez. Why?? If they offer him arbitration, he might take it.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/09/lowell_feeling_2.html

[Station 13]

The Sox picked up Felipe Lopez. Why?? If they offer him arbitration, he might take it.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/09/lowell_feeling_2.html

 

He's a type B, interesting. His salary this year is 1 million and at best he will get 200K raise or cut by accepting. (not sure how arbitration works for FA accepting)

[Interestedobserver]

I would be okay with Beltran' date=' but he would be another "buy low" older, expensive player. His upside is very high, but he has to stay healthy and after this season I would hesitate to give up any talent that could be used in other deals for someone more reliable.[/quote']

 

The question is not whether they give up talent, for him, but whether they pay his salary. By contract he cannot be offered arb, so it's a complete rental in every sense of the word. But the Mets won't pay his salary AND give him away.

[a700hitter]

The question is not whether they give up talent' date=' for him, but whether they pay his salary. By contract he cannot be offered arb, so it's a complete rental in every sense of the word. But the Mets won't pay his salary AND give him away.[/quote']The move for Beltran should be as a salary dump. We should take the salary-- it's a short term commitment- and give them one or two low level prospects.