The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[Palodios]

Derrek Lee has had a mediocre year, and is showing small signs of decline at 35. I don't see him being too expensive. Cliff Lee-- no, they can't afford him and Werth.

[a700hitter]

This article raises a good point. If Bay wasn't worth 4 years/$60 million, why would Werth be worth it?

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2010/09/21/is-jayson-werth-worth-more-than-jason-bay/

[Yaz Sideburn]

would anyone be intersted in giving brandon webb an incentive laiden 1 year deal? he's just now working his way back to the majors and might actually get in a game before the end of the season so he should be ready by next spring

 

i know our rotation is set but there's talk of us exploring a trade for daisuke that would send him to the west coast. if we can't rid of him, he could play the roll of mike lowell and act as insurance for when one of our starters gets hurt and we could explore trading him at the all-star break if our rotation is healthy enough

[Dojji]

not interested unless we can clear a SP, and the only ones that are movable right now are Buchholz and Lester -- and, no. Just no.

[Palodios]

This article raises a good point. If Bay wasn't worth 4 years/$60 million' date=' why would Werth be worth it?[/quote']

 

Werth's vastly superior defense and steals outweigh the minor differences in power/obp. Throw in better health, and Werth gets the extra year. World Series experience never hurts either.

[a700hitter]

Werth's vastly superior defense and steals outweigh the minor differences in power/obp. Throw in better health' date=' and Werth gets the extra year. World Series experience never hurts either.[/quote']It's not a very compelling case. He's not a big base stealer and he's not exactly known for his defense.

[a700hitter]

would anyone be intersted in giving brandon webb an incentive laiden 1 year deal? he's just now working his way back to the majors and might actually get in a game before the end of the season so he should be ready by next spring

 

i know our rotation is set but there's talk of us exploring a trade for daisuke that would send him to the west coast. if we can't rid of him, he could play the roll of mike lowell and act as insurance for when one of our starters gets hurt and we could explore trading him at the all-star break if our rotation is healthy enough

I am opposed to dumpster diving for post surgical or injured pitchers. The last time that worked out for the Sox was Luis Tiant.

[Spudboy]

His value / bargaining power will be greatly diminished if both the Sox and Yankees don't go in on him.

 

And that's likely to occur.

[Spudboy]

would anyone be intersted in giving brandon webb an incentive laiden 1 year deal? he's just now working his way back to the majors and might actually get in a game before the end of the season so he should be ready by next spring

 

i know our rotation is set but there's talk of us exploring a trade for daisuke that would send him to the west coast. if we can't rid of him, he could play the roll of mike lowell and act as insurance for when one of our starters gets hurt and we could explore trading him at the all-star break if our rotation is healthy enough

 

Daisuke to the west coast?

 

Never. He's dominant and had an incredible 2008!!!!:lol:

[Yaz Sideburn]

I am opposed to dumpster diving for post surgical or injured pitchers. The last time that worked out for the Sox was Luis Tiant.

 

takashi saito?

[Interestedobserver]

Somebody's going to overpay for Crawford, Werth, and Lee this winter.

[example1]

2004 had a lot of carryover personnel from the Duquette years. After 2005' date=' there was minimal carryover. No one else can can claim credit for 2006-2010, and I don't think the track record is that great. A big market team-- the Yankees have beat us 3 of those 5 years and they have won 1 championship (2 if they win in 2010). Before we anyone uses the "we can't compete with Yankee money" excuses, let's remember that a small market team --Tampa-- has also eaten our lunch twice in the last 5 years.[/quote']

 

2007: World Series

2008: ALCS Game 7

2009: First round loss in playoffs

 

The track record isn't that great?

 

Tampa had a top 5 pick in the draft for, what, 10 years straight. They sucked for a long time and then benefited from a setup that would have made just about anyone a good team. Tampa has been smart too, but please, let's stop with this "big market" "small market" thing.

[a700hitter]

takashi saito?

Saito was healthy and back pitching for the Dodgers at the end of 2008 before the Red Sox picked him up.

[Palodios]

It's not a very compelling case. He's not a big base stealer and he's not exactly known for his defense.

 

I think we've been spoiled by Ellsbury. A guy who can steal twenty bags is not too shabby. The point is-- statistically, its about a wash, and Werth is healthier-- thus an extra year.

[a700hitter]

2007: World Series

2008: ALCS Game 7

2009: First round loss in playoffs

 

The track record isn't that great?

 

Tampa had a top 5 pick in the draft for, what, 10 years straight. They sucked for a long time and then benefited from a setup that would have made just about anyone a good team. Tampa has been smart too, but please, let's stop with this "big market" "small market" thing.

I don't think the 5 year track record is great considering the financial resources and payroll of the Red Sox. Tampa has beaten us twice in 5 years with much less resources. The track record isn't bad, but two 3rd place finishes in 5 years is not great.

[a700hitter]

I think we've been spoiled by Ellsbury. A guy who can steal twenty bags is not too shabby. The point is-- statistically' date=' its about a wash, and Werth is healthier-- thus an extra year.[/quote']Bay's health problems this season have been caused by a knock on the head concussion, not any pre-existing condition.

[example1]

I don't think the 5 year track record is great considering the financial resources and payroll of the Red Sox. Tampa has beaten us twice in 5 years with much less resources. The track record isn't bad' date=' but two 3rd place finishes in 5 years is not great.[/quote']

 

Resources are both finances and talent. I would argue that Tampa's talent is high because they have developed players well and made some good trades.

 

Nobody is saying two 3rd place finishes in 5 years is great, but you really should be making this argument in context. This years team has had injuries unlike any team in recent memory (blame the FO for that if you want...) and 2006 was a bad year but not unlike those that most teams have. I would say that with unquestionably the highest payroll in baseball your argument should also apply to the Yankees, who have "only" one world series in the past 5 years.

[a700hitter]

Resources are both finances and talent. I would argue that Tampa's talent is high because they have developed players well and made some good trades.

 

Nobody is saying two 3rd place finishes in 5 years is great, but you really should be making this argument in context. This years team has had injuries unlike any team in recent memory (blame the FO for that if you want...) and 2006 was a bad year but not unlike those that most teams have. I would say that with unquestionably the highest payroll in baseball your argument should also apply to the Yankees, who have "only" one world series in the past 5 years.

Injuries were a big factor this season, but so was an atrocious bullpen and bad defense, base running and overall fundamentals. Give us the Yankee bullpen and we are in the playoffs despite the injuries.

 

The Yankees have had a better 5 years than us. They've missed the playoffs only once, beaten us 3 out of 5 years, and they can still win their second World Championship in the 5 year period 2006-2010.

[jacksonianmarch]

And if we nab Lee in the offseason, this team could be primed for another late 90s style run

[a700hitter]

And if we nab Lee in the offseason' date=' this team could be primed for another late 90s style run[/quote']..and the Yankees have had a history of plane crashes too.

[Palodios]

Bay's health problems this season have been caused by a knock on the head concussion' date=' not any pre-existing condition.[/quote']

 

There were concerns about Bay's shoulder and knees this offseason. That's what hurt his contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not sure if any Yankees are crack pilots

[jacksonianmarch]

There were concerns about Bay's shoulder and knees this offseason. That's what hurt his contract.

 

thus far 1/4 into his contract, those fears have been unwarranted

[Palodios]

thus far 1/4 into his contract' date=' those fears have been unwarranted[/quote']

 

Unfortunately for the mets, 1/4 into his contract, the fear that he is not worth 60 million has been warranted.

[jacksonianmarch]

His production has tailed off, no doubt. The thing about the mets is that they didn't build a team around their park. If I were them, I'd do what the pads did. Build a team on pitching and athleticism. That park will kill power for all but the major power guys

[a700hitter]

Unfortunately for the mets' date=' 1/4 into his contract, the fear that he is not worth 60 million has been warranted.[/quote']But it has had nothing to do with his knees or his shoulders.

[jacksonianmarch]

But it has had nothing to do with his knees or his shoulders.

 

If Bay stayed in Boston, my guess is that he would have avoided a freak concussion and would have put up 30HRs like clockwork.

[a700hitter]

If Bay stayed in Boston' date=' my guess is that he would have avoided a freak concussion and would have put up 30HRs like clockwork.[/quote']Bay and Werth are very similar players. I'm not sure there is any justification to make the investment in Werth that they were unwilling to make in Bay.

[Palodios]

Bay and Werth are very similar players. I'm not sure there is any justification to make the investment in Werth that they were unwilling to make in Bay.

 

I'm not sure what you're arguing about. At the time, his medical report showed potential health concerns, and that's why he didn't get the fifth year. Werth has a very similar skill set, and does not have health concerns, thus he'll probably get a bigger contract.

[Interestedobserver]

Concussions are freak things. I'm sure Theo put zero thought into that when he made his decision.