Should Kalish make the team next year?

[Will617]

$38 million for two players? Well, they will be dropping $33.5m by releasing Lowell, Ortiz and Beltre. They don't have to pay $8.4m to Bill Hall or $5m to 'Tek.

 

Should we pretend that the Sox get two of the best players from other playoff teams for a second? Sure, why not?

 

Can they fill all of the other positions internally to mitigate the cost of signing those guys? They could retain Victor Martinez for less than the cost of Hall and Tek. With so many internal options (now including Salty) I can see them paying V-Mart and filling the C position internally the rest of the time. I could also see them letting Ortiz and Beltre go. Losing Bill Hall doesn't hurt if Lowrie is healthy. If they were to get Gonzalez he would replace some of the offense and a lot of the defense of Beltre-Ortiz; he would also be youger, more consistent and more dependable. Crawford would obviously be a formidable force in LF with Cameron or Kalish in CF and Drew in RF.

 

If Kalish or Iglesias become better than average MLB players in 2 years then the team would be really dangerous.

 

First, who DHs? It seems like there won't be any money left in the Sox bank after this, covering arbitration raises, etc.

And there is no way we can acquire Gonzalez and keep both Kalish or Iglesias, and we may lose both. Gonzalez is an elite player - he's entering the prime of his career, he's an elite defender, he has amazing power, he has no injury concerns. There were question marks about Oswalt (contract/age) and Haren (ERA, scouts have questioned his "stuff", and the HRs he's been giving up). With Gonzalez, you have zero questions about what you'll get, and the kind of player would require giving up can't-miss prospects like Smoak, Montero, or Kalish/Iglesias/Kelly.

Also, why would Cameron play left and Kalish play center? One is a Gold Glover (and age probably makes him very much above average), and the other projects to become a corner outfielder (though projections aren't everything, but they give you some sense of his defensive ability).

[example1]

Hall is not being paid by the Red Sox' date=' not sure why people are including him in their salary loss. Milwaukee is paying his entire salary minus $400K[/quote']

 

Okay, replace Hall with Lugo. Lugo is being paid $9m (per Cot's).

[example1]

First' date=' who DHs? It seems like there won't be any money left in the Sox bank after this, covering arbitration raises, etc. [/quote']

 

Given that Francona seemingly NEVER just has 9 guys who play day in and day out, I'm confident that the DH spot can be filled intermittently by Drew, V-Mart, Gonzalez and Youkilis.

 

And there is no way we can acquire Gonzalez and keep both Kalish or Iglesias, and we may lose both. Gonzalez is an elite player - he's entering the prime of his career, he's an elite defender, he has amazing power, he has no injury concerns. There were question marks about Oswalt (contract/age) and Haren (ERA, scouts have questioned his "stuff", and the HRs he's been giving up). With Gonzalez, you have zero questions about what you'll get, and the kind of player would require giving up can't-miss prospects like Smoak, Montero, or Kalish/Iglesias/Kelly.

 

I think there's absolutely a way to keep Gonzalez without moving Kalish or Iglesias. I was under the assumption that they would have moved Ellsbury in that deal, along with other players.

 

Gonzalez might be an elite player but they're not selling him 1.5 years early (a la Teixeira from the Rangers to the Braves). They'd be selling him 1 year early, or one playoff run less.

 

I would offer Ellsbury, Anderson, Doubront + one. If they wanted much more then San Diego can just watch as the Sox blow others out of the water for Gonzalez after the season and they get nobody.

 

Also, why would Cameron play left and Kalish play center? One is a Gold Glover (and age probably makes him very much above average), and the other projects to become a corner outfielder (though projections aren't everything, but they give you some sense of his defensive ability).

 

I put Kalish in CF because this was under the assumption that Crawford was on the team. Maybe Crawford plays CF, maybe it's Cameron with Drew at DH and Kalish in RF. I don't think it matters that much. I worry about Cameron's health and offensive production, but he's a fine CF.

[Will617]

Given that Francona seemingly NEVER just has 9 guys who play day in and day out' date=' I'm confident that the DH spot can be filled intermittently by Drew, V-Mart, Gonzalez and Youkilis.[/quote']

 

I think only Drew and V-Mart miss time on a consistent basis. But my point is that if you have a revolving door of DHs, you lose a substantial amount of production. If V-Mart catches 3 games out of 5, DHs 1 out of 5, you see twice as much of Kevin Cash than if V-Mart catches 4 games out of 5 (about 30 games more). David Ortiz would be a much better bat than any of the replacements that would see more time due to players filling the role at DH.

 

I think there's absolutely a way to keep Gonzalez without moving Kalish or Iglesias. I was under the assumption that they would have moved Ellsbury in that deal, along with other players.

 

Gonzalez might be an elite player but they're not selling him 1.5 years early (a la Teixeira from the Rangers to the Braves). They'd be selling him 1 year early, or one playoff run less.

 

The Padres would never take Ellsbury unless they think they will contend in the 3 years that Ellsbury has arbitration, because after those 3 years Ellsbury will not sign with the Padres and seek a bigger contract with Mr. Boras at his side. And if they're trading AGon, they don't think that they'd be contending in the 3 years they'd have Ells.

If you look at the Teixeira trade when he had 0.5 year left, they acquired Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek, ranked #1 and #6 in the Angels system by BA. Less than the take of 1.5 years (the #1, 2, 3, 14, and 15 ranked prospects in the Braves' system), but it should give you a guideline.

EDIT: I made a mistake, Kotchman was a ML player by that time, the site was confusing and listed him as a #1 prospect in 2005 and I glanced over the 2005 part. But still, I think they'd rather take a cost-controlled OF (Kalish) over one who won't be pretty quickly (Ells).

Casey Kelly is ranked #1, Ryan Kalish is ranked #2 in the system by SoxProspects. Lars, Doubront, and Iglesias are ranked #4-6; the Padres have excellent pitching in prospects and a decent ML staff. They also have three 3B prospects who can all hit for power amongst their top 10 (ranked by Fangraphs before this season); I'd imagine one of them would get moved to first and lined up as A-Gon's successor. It looks to me like they wouldn't want Kelly or Doubront, and Lars would be a lower priority for them to acquire. Their OF is s*** in the majors and not amazing in the minors, same deal with the shortstop position.

[Dojji]

I[d be happy to move Iglesias and Reddick in a Gonzalez deal if we can find enough other Kalish-free talent to make the move.

 

Che-Hsuan Lin might be a surprisingly tempting second-tier offer for the Padres as well. With their huge offense, a CF who can move like Lin couldn't help but be useful. He'd be more of a makeweight than a real value piece though.

[Palodios]

The Padres would never take Ellsbury

 

....

 

It looks to me like they wouldn't want Kelly or Doubront, and Lars would be a lower priority for them to acquire. .

 

Why is this a problem? The Sox could just flip those players to teams that do want them, and get pieces for the Padres that way.

[Will617]

Why is this a problem? The Sox could just flip those players to teams that do want them' date=' and get pieces for the Padres that way.[/quote']

 

Because teams that have a ML outfielder who is ready or almost ready wouldn't need Ellsbury. Of course, the Padres would also accept a player up the middle (both their 2B and SS are terrible, and the system at a glance doesn't have any great replacements) but Iglesias is the other attractive piece to the Padres in that deal.

[Dojji]

Not a lot of teams are really anxious to trade prospects for other prospects. Also no one has any particular reason to help us get Gonzalez -- we wind up overpaying that way.

[Palodios]

Because teams that have a ML outfielder who is ready or almost ready wouldn't need Ellsbury. Of course' date=' the Padres would also accept a player up the middle (both their 2B and SS are terrible, and the system at a glance doesn't have any great replacements) but Iglesias is the other attractive piece to the Padres in that deal.[/quote']

 

You're overthinking it. The pieces they have will either be attractive to the Padres, or be used in deals to get pieces attractive to the Padres. I think its pretty clear that this team is not interested in trading players with significant stake in their future, unless its absolutely necessary.

[Dojji]

Why would other teams make it easy for us to get Gonzalez unless we overpay them to do so?

[Dojji]

Heh. You want to turn this place on its head?

 

Pedroia+ for Gonzalez.

 

Peddy's signed through 2015 on a team-friendly deal. There's your control. And who would care to deny that he would be a tempting package for Gonzo almost by himself? And with replacements on hand, it's a move we can technically afford to make.

 

So put it on the table, Gonzo fans. Exactly how far are you prepared to go to get Gonzalez?

[Will617]

Pedroia will never be traded unless it's for Longoria or Strasburg or Heyward, and even then the FO will hesitate a long long time. That contract is just so ridiculously good for the Sox.

[Palodios]

Why would other teams make it easy for us to get Gonzalez unless we overpay them to do so?

 

They're not. If the Sox do trade for Gonzalez, they will end up overpaying. Also, Pedroia is one of the best 3 second baseman. A-gon barely breaks top ten at this point at first.

[Dojji]

Call me nuts, but I'd rather see what the Angels are asking for Mike Napoli. He's not as sexy as Gonzo, but he is a decent little slugger who can play 1B and part-tiime it at catcher. He could help us in a couple different roles. With the Angels committed to Mathis behind the plate and Morales coming back next year Napoli could be out in the cold. When you're talking about an RHH with his kind of power potential it's definitely worth asking about.

[Will617]

They were apparently shopping him at the deadline for a 1B. He might be a short-term solution as we wait for ALBERT PUJOLSSSSSSS

[Dojji]

I'd swap Lars and a pitcher for Napoli and not think twice about it, but I think that "1B" thing is likely just for now, since Kendry Morales won't be gone forever. In the offseason they're more likely to want pitching.

[Keeper]

Why do you covet Napoli so much? As a 1B, he gives you average to below average production. His value comes from him putting on the gear. Just like V-Mart. And like V-Mart, he isn't much of a backstop.

[jacksonianmarch]

He loves Napoli cause he kills the red sox. The problem is, he is pedestrian as a 1b against everyone else

[Dojji]

Why do you covet Napoli so much? As a 1B' date=' he gives you average to below average production. His value comes from him putting on the gear. Just like V-Mart. And like V-Mart, he isn't much of a backstop.[/quote']

 

I love Napoli because he's a righthanded slugger with really quite a lot of raw power who has the ability to be a hitter in the Jack Cust/Carlos Pena mold and plays Catcher competently as long as he doesn't play it too often. He takes walks and still has room to grow in terms of power ceiling. I think he's a solid fit for Fenway and he's done a ompetent job as a first baseman for the Angels this year (+3.5 UZR/150 in a 40-game sample FWIW). We could do an awful lot worse, especially if he can play 40-50 games or more a year behind the dish if called upon to do so.

 

Just because a guy can play catcher doesn't mean their value's at catcher. In Napoli's case, he really seems to be most effective at C if he plays about half time, and he's done a lot of time at DH over the years for LAA when Scioscia's preferred to put in a better glove behind the dish. If he can plat 150 games at first base, and only 80 or so at catcher, then his value is at first base and his ability to catch becomes something that's a beneficial extra skill on top of his ability to play first, kinda like a way better slugging version of Matthew LeCroy

 

If he makes the last couple steps forward he needs to make in terms of consistency, a .260/.350/.500 season in which he raps 30 over the wall as a full time 1B isn't that hard to project, he's hit at that pace before. And the way he is right now he may not be a world-beating 1B but there's definitely worse ones. So yeah, I like Napoli.

 

The question is he a guy the speed-loving, defense-loving, contact-loving Angels, who already have a catcher and a 1B who fit their team persona better, are willing to trade the guy for a reasonable return in pitching to bolster their shattered rotation? I think the way I phrased my question calls my answer. I think Doubront gets you Napoli and I think that's a fair exchange.

[Palodios]

Now here's an interesting idea. Why not trade for Napoli, resign VMart, and have them take turns catching and playing first base. Neither of them should be catching full time, and their offense and health will be better because of the extra time off the plate. The drawback of less offense at 1st is more or less a wash because of the better offense at C, and by signing Napoli, there will be more money to pick up Werth or Dunn.

[Dojji]

It's definitely worth thinking about. Napoli may not be a guy who can start as a catcher for health reasons, but he can definitely play enough at Catcher to keep another Catcher fresh, and both Napoli and V-Mart can play a competent first base. Mix in some time at DH for both of them and you might not need to take either bat out of the lineup that often.

[Spudboy]

I'm dizzy from the last three posts.

 

It's certainly fun to consider. But why move Dubront? I think he'll be needed here in Boston.

 

How about Stolmy?

[redsoxrules]

I'm dizzy from the last three posts.

 

It's certainly fun to consider. But why move Dubront? I think he'll be needed here in Boston.

How about Stolmy?

 

how so ?

 

Lester is long term

Bucholz is also long term

Beckett and Lacky just signed 5 year deals

Dice K

 

 

they can afford to move him

[Dojji]

Doubront has more value to Anaheim -- assuming they see him as a starter of course. The lefty thing aside, he's closer to MLB ready.

 

We can go into next year with Richardson and a FA like Downs as our lefties, we don't technically need Doubront.

[Palodios]

Trading Doubront to solve the 1st base problem? That's a steal, considering some of the prospects that might get traded for A-gon.

[Dojji]

And as a RH power hitter in Fenway, I really expect Napoli's power to jump. There's no denying his ability to put a charge into a baseball when he can catch up with one, and the wall should help his batting average and consistency with doubles that would be fly balls in Anaheim -- Angels stadium isn't as much of a cavern as Seattle, but any RHH power hitter from an NL West ought to look a little better in Fenway.

[Yaz Sideburn]

YS' date=' EEI is a cesspool, but when the fans call in calling for blood on a daily basis, then you can kinda get a pulse for the nation. I think the other things factoring in here are the agent and the fact that the sox FO has been pretty mum rather than outwardly protecting the guy[/quote']

 

so much for sox fans hating ellsbury. he 0-12 since his rehab start but sox fans are already in love with him again because he's playing good defense

[Spudboy]

how so ?

 

Lester is long term

Bucholz is also long term

Beckett and Lacky just signed 5 year deals

Dice K

 

 

they can afford to move him

 

The answer is self explanatory to any attentive Sox fan.

[Dojji]

We do still have Bowden and Tazawa for possible injury replacement duties.

[Yaz Sideburn]

what i think spudboy is getting at is what happens when a starter innevitably gets hurt?