Trade Suggestion

[jacksonianmarch]

Pal, I think you are significantly undervaluing Vazquez based on 1 month's time. Now granted, it was an historically bad month, but I think you could see his value, especially due to the fact he is pitching in the AL East. Here are his splits...

 

1st 5 starts

1-3 23IP 32H 25ER 8HR 15BB 20K 9.78ERA 1.3K/BB 7.8K/9IP 2.09WHIP

 

Last 7 starts

5-3 47IP 28H 14ER 5HR 15BB 42K 2.69ERA 2.8K/BB 8K/9IP 0.91WHIP

 

And the big thing to remember is that after his fifth start, they skipped him and tweaked his mechanics. Now, I dont expect him to keep up this run, but I do expect him to avoid the horrid string he started with. Meaning, I think he ends up with an ERA in the mid to low 4s, and is on pace for 200IP and 200K. That is worth a LOT

[Palodios]

Pal' date=' I think you are significantly undervaluing Vazquez based on 1 month's time. [/quote']

 

I don't know if you remember, but I was one of the few people on your side about Vazquez. I liked what I saw in 2009, and I thought it was a very good move. But Vazquez doesn't have a good enough track record in years prior to make teams overlook the hiccups he had this year unless he pitches lights out for the rest of the season, which even you don't believe will happen.

[jacksonianmarch]

Right, but even with the hiccups, he was a clockwork 200IP 200K pitcher. Those guys come at a premium price

[Palodios]

Right' date=' but even with the hiccups, he was a clockwork 200IP 200K pitcher. Those guys come at a premium price[/quote']

 

The best comparison I can find for contract size is Randy Wolf. He's around the same age, coming off a 3.23 ERA, 214 IP, 160 K season last year. He got a 3/30 with the Brewers. There are some differences in variables, but I think based on the circumstances 2009 Wolf has a slight edge over a 2010 Vazquez, and got his contract when pitching was much more scarce. V is looking at 3 years, 24-28.

 

Vazquez can stick around for more guaranteed money for 2011, stay with the same team, have a very good chance of going to the playoffs, and have a chance to increase his value for the following year.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont see much of a parallel at all. Wolf is a contact pitcher who was completely irrelevant from 2004-2007. He had a good 2008 and a great 2009. He has never once hit 200K and reached 200IP once since 2003. Vazquez has been one of the best pitchers of the past decade.

[ORS]

Pal, I think you are significantly undervaluing Vazquez based on 1 month's time. Now granted, it was an historically bad month, but I think you could see his value, especially due to the fact he is pitching in the AL East. Here are his splits...

 

1st 5 starts

1-3 23IP 32H 25ER 8HR 15BB 20K 9.78ERA 1.3K/BB 7.8K/9IP 2.09WHIP

 

Last 7 starts

5-3 47IP 28H 14ER 5HR 15BB 42K 2.69ERA 2.8K/BB 8K/9IP 0.91WHIP

 

And the big thing to remember is that after his fifth start, they skipped him and tweaked his mechanics. Now, I dont expect him to keep up this run, but I do expect him to avoid the horrid string he started with. Meaning, I think he ends up with an ERA in the mid to low 4s, and is on pace for 200IP and 200K. That is worth a LOT

I'd think he would end up with those numbers if I just made s*** up and ignored things like his current pace and the quality of his opposition.

 

We are 9 games from the mid point of the season. He's got 62 K's. 62. He's pitched ~70 IP. 70. You may be right about the ERA, that's the type of pitcher he was in the AL before. That said, he's been cruising against some fairly weak teams. Time will tell when he starts playing the varsity squads again.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's been cruising to an unsustainable 2.68ERA. I really think the first month was a mechanical issue. His velocity and location have been much better since his start was skipped.

[Palodios]

I dont see much of a parallel at all. Wolf is a contact pitcher who was completely irrelevant from 2004-2007. He had a good 2008 and a great 2009. He has never once hit 200K and reached 200IP once since 2003. Vazquez has been one of the best pitchers of the past decade.

 

Randy Wolf is the best comparison there is, if you factor in age and relative skill. Kevin Millwood and Ted Lily got deals around 4/40 and 4/48 but they were 30 years old back, so much closer to prime years. It also was back when we weren't in an economic depression. Pettite has been getting one year contracts from 10-16 million for a while.

 

The only pitchers I found with a similar track record of strikeouts and IP have far lower ERA, like Halladay or Verlander. The big strikeout/innings pitchers allow far few runs scored. I think that in the case of Vazquez you're overvaluing strikeouts. There really is no value to strikeouts without other stats backing them up-- they often are correlated to a good pitcher, but it doesn't necessarily mean a pitcher is good. IP is valuable, sure, but Wakefield can pitch a similar number of innings with a similar ERA for around 3-4 million a year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wakefield cannot throw 200IP anymore. Having 200K means that you leave less to chance, and hence doesnt impact your BABIP. It is very funny how Vazquez is so easily brushed off here. And I am not talking down to anyone, I am just saying that nobody thinks of Vazquez as one of the best pitchers over the past decade. But he has been.

[Palodios]

Trivia Question-- How many years did Wakefield pitch 180+ innings for 3-5 million for the Sox? Answer- 5.

 

Vazquez career ERA 4.21. Wakefield career ERA 4.36. Consider Wakefield has pitched in the toughest division for most of his career. How well do you think he would have done in the NL-- have you ever seen a pitcher try to hit a knuckleball?

 

Vazquez is not one of the best pitchers of the past decade. He's not in the same league as Santana, Sabathia, Halladay, Lincecum, Pedro, Cliff Lee, Verlander, Randy Johnson, etc.

[jacksonianmarch]

From 2000-2009-

 

2163IP 2101H 957ER 528BB 2001K

 

His averages were... 216IP 200K 3.98ERA 8.3K/9IP 3.8K/BB 1.21WHIP

 

Those numbers are very, very good

[ORS]

I don't know how big a group this "best" is, but it'll need to be pretty big to include Vazquez (over the last decade). Preh-tty, preh-tty, big.

[Palodios]

 

Vazquez is not one of the best pitchers of the past decade. He's not in the same league as Santana, Sabathia, Halladay, Lincecum, Pedro, Cliff Lee, Verlander, Randy Johnson, etc.

 

Good does not equal "the best". He's consistent and you know you're getting a solid pitcher. But He's not even in the conversation for the "best".

[jacksonianmarch]

Best has to do with consistency. He was very good every yr on average over a decade without missing any time

[Palodios]

Best has to do with consistency. He was very good every yr on average over a decade without missing any time

 

Okay, I'll relent. He's the best at staying healthy. You can't blame other pitchers for being injured.

[jacksonianmarch]

But you can. I'd rather have 10 yrs of #2 production over an injury prone potential ace.

[Palodios]

Sure. Problem is, he's closer to a #3 or #4. On the Yankees, he's a solid 5.

[jacksonianmarch]

A sub 4ERA is #3 or #4? Take a look at the average #3, #4, and #5 starters are on every team and what their production is. It will shock you. Just a hint, the #5 spot in the AL last yr had an ERA somewhere close to 6

[Palodios]

A sub 4ERA is #3 or #4? Take a look at the average #3' date=' #4, and #5 starters are on every team and what their production is. It will shock you. Just a hint, the #5 spot in the AL last yr had an ERA somewhere close to 6[/quote']

 

Except that Vazquez hasn't been pitching in the AL. And the #5 spot is almost always held by a #6 pitcher because of injuries.

 

In his 5 years in the AL--

4.91, 4.84, 3.74, 4.67, 5.01

 

That's a #3 or 4 for a playoff bound team.

[jacksonianmarch]

But he is gonna be eligible to sign in the NL. That's the point.

 

You are saying that Vazquez wouldnt be too marketable based on his age and his performance and that NY shouldnt offer arb. My point is that someone will offer him a 3 yr deal when this season ends, probably in the $45 million range and probably in the NL.

[Palodios]

But he is gonna be eligible to sign in the NL. That's the point.

 

You are saying that Vazquez wouldnt be too marketable based on his age and his performance and that NY shouldnt offer arb. My point is that someone will offer him a 3 yr deal when this season ends, probably in the $45 million range and probably in the NL.

 

You were comparing him to AL pitchers--but he's been playing in the NL-- so I called you out on it. I'm not saying he's staying in the AL-- he probably shouldn't.

 

He got a 3/34 contract in 2007. I don't see him getting a 3/45 now when he's 4 years older and showing signs of inconsistency, in a worse economy, and a pitching heavy league.

[jacksonianmarch]

But what signs of inconsistency? He had his best season last yr and has had a tale of two seasons thus far. You cannot make a judgement on this season in terms of his marketability until after the yr.

[Dojji]

But you can look at the body of work and use that to judge which side of that particular balance is more likely to be the real deal.

 

So which is more reasonable, that righthanded power pitcher can dominate a pitcher friendly NL park but struggles in a lefthanded power hitter's dream stadium, or that this guy suddenly got good after a whole lot of years of mediocrity seasoned with flashes of brilliance?

[Palodios]

But what signs of inconsistency? He had his best season last yr and has had a tale of two seasons thus far. You cannot make a judgement on this season in terms of his marketability until after the yr.

 

Yes I can. He had 5 bad starts to start the year, and then 2 more throughout this season. You seem to be able to ignore those signs of inconsistency, but people paying the checks don't. It hurts his contract value, that's a fact. Last year Jarrod Washburn had a great start with Seattle, and then pitched 8 bad games with Detroit, and see how much he got.

[Keeper]

I don't know how big a group this "best" is' date=' but it'll need to be pretty big to include Vazquez (over the last decade). Preh-tty, preh-tty, big.[/quote']

 

Is that a Curb reference?

[Keeper]

Not at all interested in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. I don't trust the guy in the AL East. He's a contact pitcher with flyball tendencies playuing in a park that can be conservatively described as ideal for that skillset. The AL East ballparks tend to favor hitters and Fenway in particular frowns on flyball lefties.

 

I want to clarify that I don't think he's going to suck if he comes here. He's a very, very good pitcher, but he's unlikely to be worth the price, and his ERA will rise in the AL East, and our rotation isn't the problem anyway.

 

As I recall, he did pretty well in Philly. Lee would be an upgrade over Beckett, Dice-K, and Lackey, IMO. So far, all three of those pitchers haven't been worth the price.

[ORS]

Is that a Curb reference?

Yeah, what's this hand gesture referring to?

 

http://img1.tvloop.com/img/showpics/2c/0b/l341e343b0000_1_20416.jpg

[Keeper]

Larry's ex's big vagina. That was a great episode.

[TheMino007]

DAN UGGLA ANYONE? He can play 2nd and the OF.

[Keeper]

For the record, Uggla has never played in the OF in the Majors. The last time he played in the OF was 2004.