Bump on the road or cause for concern for CC?

[Dipre]

I find it funny that Sabathia's last couple of starts are just being swept under the rug. No discussion at all, almost like people are afraid to discuss it. But looking at the trend over the last 6 games, there is definitely cause for concern. His start vs Boston looked good on paper, but it started a strange trend for a pitcher who has not been known to give up gopherballs. Over his last 5 starts, Sabathia has allowed 7 homeruns which is uncharasteristic for a guy who barely gives up any homeruns.

 

Now I haven't watched every Sabathia outing, but i have seen some of them. And the spanish announcers were talking about a dip in velocity and it was reported again at foxsports.com that Sabathia was seeing a velocity dip. Is this just a blip on the radar, or is CC Sabathia facing an injury or some tired arm? Neither of those situations would be good for the Yanks who truly rely on CC to win every start he makes.

 

I did find it kinda stupid that Girardi let him reach 113 pitches in the Cleveland outing. CC may not be handling the workload at this point. And, on the same night, we saw CC slide out of the Cy Young race for the time being.

 

Discuss.

[jacksonianmarch]

He had a velocity dip at the start of last season. He is the least of the Yankees worries. He'll be 220IP 3.5ERA and have close to 20 wins like clockwork

[Dipre]

Yes, but we're not talking about last year, we're talking about this year, how do you explain his current velocity dip?, and by the way, last year, Sabathia had an 0.7 HR/9 mark, which has doubled to 1.4 so far this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Rough patch. He'll be fine. Not concerned at all. More concerned with Pettitte playing well over his head and with Vazquez and Burnett being unpredictable. CC is going to end up with close to 20 wins, a 3.5ERA and throw 220IP. Not worried at all

[Dipre]

Rough patch. He'll be fine. Not concerned at all. More concerned with Pettitte playing well over his head and with Vazquez and Burnett being unpredictable. CC is going to end up with close to 20 wins' date=' a 3.5ERA and throw 220IP. Not worried at all[/quote']

 

Seems like denial to me. His velocity is down, HR's are way up, and he's struggling against teams like Cleveland. BB/9 is also at its highest point since 2005, ditto for K/9.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Rough patch. He'll be fine. Not concerned at all. (change of subject to other pitchers)

 

Move along. Nothing to see here. Move along people.

[Dipre]

Move along. Nothing to see here. Move along people.

 

Wonder what his opinion would be if it was a Sox pitcher, like, say, Beckett last year......

[yankees228]

It's always possible that something is bothering him, but I think history proves otherwise. In terms of overall production, this first half is very similar to his past first halves. I think that's the main reason why you don't see any concern over CC.

 

As for the velocity dip, according to fangraphs, here are his average fastball velocities from 2007 on.

 

2007: 92.9

2008: 93.7

2009: 94.2

2010: 93.1

 

According to PitchFX, in his last start, his average fastball velocity was in the mid 93s (depends on whether you look at his four seamer or sinker), and he topped out at 95.4.

 

According to the data, I'm not too concerned about his velocity, especially with the warmer summer months ahead.

 

As for the home runs, sure, it could be a sign of a bigger problem, but I think it's more likely that it has to do with poor location with his fastball, and not enough downward action on his changeup. I can't prove anything statistically, but I think there's a very good chance the increased home run rate is relatively flukey, and as the season progresses into a larger sampling, it will correct itself as CC's command hopefully improves.

[Dipre]

But according to fangraphs pitchFx data, not only his fastball is affected:

 

FB: 94.1-93.1

 

SL: 81.2-80.4

 

Two-seam: 92.2-92.5

 

CH: 86.4- 86.4

 

Cut: 78.4-78.7

 

CB: 78.4-78.7

 

He's lost velocity on his 4-seam, slider, but added velocity to his Ch, cutter, curveball and two-seam.

 

The 4-seam and slider to me, are particularly troubling, since those are, after all, his bread and butter pitches (or used to be) since this year, he has drastically reduced the amount of sliders he throws, while drastically increasing the amount of two-seamers and cutters he throws.

 

He may have lost the feeling for his slider, which coupled with the loss in fastball velocity could explain the inordinate amount of Homeruns he has allowed to date.

[yankees228]

I don't know the ins and outs of CC's pitching abilities before last year, but, starting with last year (at least), his best pitch (and his out pitch) is his changeup. No question about it.

[Dipre]

I don't know the ins and outs of CC's pitching abilities before last year' date=' but, starting with last year (at least), his best pitch (and his out pitch) is his changeup. No question about it.[/quote']

 

Not against lefties.

 

And besides, in 2009, he threw his slider 17.9 % of the time, and his changeup 16.7% of the time, his second most used pitch after the FB was his slider.

 

Now this year, he only throws the slider 13% of the time, and his K rate is extremely low (per his standards) Coincidence? I think not. He's also throwing a lot less four-seamers and a lot more two-seamers.

[yankees228]

Not against lefties.

 

And besides, in 2009, he threw his slider 17.9 % of the time, and his changeup 16.7% of the time, his second most used pitch after the FB was his slider.

 

Now this year, he only throws the slider 13% of the time, and his K rate is extremely low (per his standards) Coincidence? I think not. He's also throwing a lot less four-seamers and a lot more two-seamers.

 

His K-rate was also way down the first half of last year, before he got a better feel for his secondary pitches. Again, it might not correct itself, but considering his career trends, I think it's likely that it will.

[Dipre]

His K-rate was also way down the first half of last year' date=' before he got a better feel for his secondary pitches. Again, it might not correct itself, but considering his career trends, I think it's likely.[/quote']

 

The reason i bring up the slider issue is the amount of homeruns he has allowed to lefty hitters this year, which is three, but the problem is, he allowed three HR's to LHH in all oif 2009. And while his K-rate was down in the first half, he was still limiting homeruns, and had WHIP under 1 in both May and June.

[yankees228]

It's worth noting that according to Fangraph's pitch values, his slider has been better this year than it was last year. Three home runs, because of how small a number it is, can be passed off as a fluke.

[Dipre]

It's worth noting that according to Fangraph's pitch values' date=' his slider has been better this year than it was last year. Three home runs, because of how small a number it is, can be passed off as a fluke.[/quote']

 

It's significant because of the dominance Sabathia has exercised over lefties in his career.

 

His changeup, which is his out pitch, according to your earlier assesment, has been much worse than it was last year, so why more changeups and less sliders?

 

It makes no sense.

[yankees228]

It's significant because of the dominance Sabathia has exercised over lefties in his career.

 

His changeup, which is his out pitch, according to your earlier assesment, has been much worse than it was last year, so why more changeups and less sliders?

 

It makes no sense.

 

Lefties have hit him well this year, but it's over a 67 plate appearance sampling. I don't think you can draw any conclusions from that.

 

As for his changeup, if you used last year as a guide, it really improved in the second half. I think there's a good chance it comes back to him in due time.

[Dipre]

Lefties have hit him well this year, but it's over a 67 plate appearance sampling. I don't think you can draw any conclusions from that.

 

As for his changeup, if you used last year as a guide, it really improved in the second half. I think there's a good chance it comes back to him in due time.

 

I'm not drawing conclusions, but rather pointing out anomalies:

 

He's giving up nearly twice as many Homeruns as his career averages, and is allowing homeruns from lefty hitters as well, neither of this issues can be atributed to his early season woes, and neither can the drop in velocity and the strange pitch selection.

[Keeper]

If I were a Yankee fan, I wouldn't be concerned. At all. Once his HR rate goes down, everything will fall into place. Other than the gopher ball (which is an anomaly), his peripherals look fine.

[Dipre]

If I were a Yankee fan' date=' I wouldn't be concerned. At all. Once his HR rate goes down, everything will fall into place. Other than the gopher ball (which is an anomaly), his peripherals look fine.[/quote']

 

Really?

 

.259 BABIP,13.1 LD%, extremely lucky.

 

2.76 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, out of line with his career standards.

 

If the gopher balls normalize, then probably the BABIP and LD% will as well, so the result stays the same. The funny thing is, even with all the homeruns, he's actually been lucky on balls in play, add to that the loss in velocity and i'd be at least a little bit concerned.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre, keep trying to dig up something that isnt there. Spin those wheels. SPIN THEM!!

[Keeper]

Really?

 

.259 BABIP,13.1 LD%, extremely lucky.

 

2.76 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, out of line with his career standards.

 

If the gopher balls normalize, then probably the BABIP and LD% will as well, so the result stays the same. The funny thing is, even with all the homeruns, he's actually been lucky on balls in play, add to that the loss in velocity and i'd be at least a little bit concerned.

 

I don't think giving up 7.8 H/9 has much to do with luck. The BB/9 is right in line with his career mark? And like I said, the HR rate will go down.

 

This is a silly thread. You sound like Dutchy.

[Dipre]

Dipre' date=' keep trying to dig up something that isnt there. Spin those wheels. SPIN THEM!![/quote']

 

Funny you mention that:

 

Bump on the road or or cause for concern for Beckett.

 

Annoying as f***, isn't it?

 

I find it funny that Beckett's start last night is just being swept under the rug. No discussion at all, almost like people are afraid to discuss it. But looking at the trend over the last 3 games, there is definitely cause for concern. His start vs Detroit looked good on paper, but it started a strange trend for a pitcher who has been known to give up gopherballs when not physically or mentally right (see 2006). Over his last 3 starts, Beckett has allowed 10 homeruns which is the exact same amount of homers he had allowed coming into this 3 game stretch.

 

Now I didnt get to watch the game last night, I did get to listen to it. And the announcers were talking about a dip in velocity and it was reported again at ESPN.com that Beckett was seeing a velocity dip. Is this just a blip on the radar, or is Josh Beckett facing an injury or some tired arm? Neither of those situations would be good for the sox who truly rely on Josh to win every time out or else.

 

I did find it kinda stupid that Francona sent him out there for the 8th when the yankees already had a 3 run lead and Beckett was over 100 pitches. Josh may not be handling the workload at this point. And, on the same night, we saw CC slide ahead of the sox ace in the Cy Young discussion

 

I literally paraphrased your first post.

 

Anyways, nothing to be concerned about, CC will be fine.

[jacksonianmarch]

I knew exactly what you were doing since I remember that post well. Hence why I didnt bite nor fight with you

[Dipre]

You were the first to come out with "HE'S OK, I'M MORE CONCERNED ABOUT OTHER PITCHERS!!111!!!"

 

Leave it to Y228 to turn it into a legitimate topic of discussion, jeez. <_>

[a700hitter]

Dipre, why are you sinking to the level of Yankee fans. You are better than that. Lol!

[VA Sox Fan]

Dipre' date=' why are you sinking to the level of Yankee fans. You are better than that. Lol![/quote']

 

 

Damn you Dipre!

[Dipre]

Dipre' date=' why are you sinking to the level of Yankee fans. You are better than that. Lol![/quote']

 

If ya can't beat 'em, join 'em. A taste of his own medicine, lol.

[yankees228]

Oh, didn't realize this was a joke lol.