Possible Lowell suitor

[jacksonianmarch]

It was a bad trade in restrospect (love hindsight) but the truth is' date=' Arroyo would have been exactly that, an average AL starter.[/quote']

 

Depends on your definition of "average". If you think 4.50ERA and 200IP is average, then you're crazy. A solid, middle of the rotation starter capable of throwing 200IP is worth 10 million a yr these days.

[Dipre]

Depends on your definition of "average". If you think 4.50ERA and 200IP is average' date=' then you're crazy. A solid, middle of the rotation starter capable of throwing 200IP is worth 10 million a yr these days.[/quote']

 

Do you honestly think with Arroyo's peripheral numbers he'd be a 4.50 ERA, 200 IP pitcher in the AL?

 

When i speak of average, i speak of the Todd Wellemeyer's of the world.

 

Btw, interesting how you define him as "solid".

[VA Sox Fan]

Do you honestly think with Arroyo's peripheral numbers he'd be a 4.50 ERA, 200 IP pitcher in the AL?

 

When i speak of average, i speak of the Todd Wellemeyer's of the world.

 

Btw, interesting how you define him as "solid".

 

That's because he's is no longer on the Red Sox.

[Dipre]

That's because he's is no longer on the Red Sox.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

He's got a WHIP in the 1.3 range this yr. Last yr, he had one under 1.3. He's thrown 5 straight seasons of 200IP +. In his 2 yrs in Boston, he threw 384IP and had a WHIP under 1.3. Yes, I do think he could be a 200IP 4.5ERA guy in the AL East. He was better than that when he was traded and aside from 1 season, he probably would have been there. Regardless, he would have been incredibly useful on the sox in 2006 and 2008. WHere's WMP now?

[Dipre]

He's got a WHIP in the 1.3 range this yr. Last yr' date=' he had one under 1.3. He's thrown 5 straight seasons of 200IP +. In his 2 yrs in Boston, he threw 384IP and had a WHIP under 1.3. Yes, I do think he could be a 200IP 4.5ERA guy in the AL East. He was better than that when he was traded and aside from 1 season, he probably would have been there. Regardless, he would have been incredibly useful on the sox in 2006 and 2008. WHere's WMP now?[/quote']

 

In the AL Central. Where Brad Penny and Carlos Silva go to look like aces.

 

His last season with the Sox, he declined across the board in every statistical category, then went on to (surprisingly) get better across the board in the NL Central. WMP's current destination is unimportant to the current discusion, which reeks of your usual bias, but then again, it's to be expected.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, he declined in yr 2. What is your point? By your logic, he should have stabilized in the NL Central, then decline again into oblivion. In the AL East, he was good enough to be a middle of the rotation starter. He's been durable and effective. Would he be an ace? Absolutely not. But would he have made things a whole lot easier over the past few seasons? You betcha.

[Dipre]

Yeah' date=' he declined in yr 2. What is your point? By your logic, he should have stabilized in the NL Central, then decline again into oblivion. In the AL East, he was good enough to be a middle of the rotation starter. He's been durable and effective. Would he be an ace? Absolutely not. But would he have made things a whole lot easier over the past few seasons? You betcha.[/quote']

 

Would he have been a 4.50 ERA, 200 IP pitcher in the AL East? You bet not. Which is the point of the discussion.

 

By the way, it's not by "my logic" he had a monster 2006 season, and passable 2007. The NL is an inferior league (as you stated multiple times when criticizing the Penny and Smoltz signings), the fact that he sucked in both 2008 and 2009 points to the decision to trade him being a sound one, the problem was the value in return. You can't have it both ways.

[jacksonianmarch]

I criticized Penny because he SUCKED in his season prior to coming to Boston in the NL and I criticized Smoltz cause he came off shoulder surgery. Seriously, can you ever question anything the team does? This deal was a complete flop, they dealt a guy they could have used for a project who didnt turn out. Just admit it, damn you're thick headed.

[jacksonianmarch]

AND HE WAS A 200IP 4.5ERA guy in Boston when they dealt him. Do I think he could continue that? Well, he did it, then proved he could do it over and over and over again in Cincy, so why not. You're grabbing at straws here

[Dipre]

AND HE WAS A 200IP 4.5ERA guy in Boston when they dealt him. Do I think he could continue that? Well' date=' he did it, then proved he could do it over and over and over again in Cincy, so why not. You're grabbing at straws here[/quote']

 

So instead of declining with age and his already fringe stuff, he was going to keep that performance up in the AL East?

 

HE GOT HIS ASS KICKED IN THE AL CENTRAL IN 08 and 09, SO HE DIDN'T PROVE JACK s***, AND THE ARGUMENT REEKS OF YOUR BIAS.

 

If a 1.4 WHIP and ERA's above 4.20 in the AL Central are straws, i can grab onto them to save my life.

[Dipre]

I criticized Penny because he SUCKED in his season prior to coming to Boston in the NL and I criticized Smoltz cause he came off shoulder surgery. Seriously' date=' can you ever question anything the team does? This deal was a complete flop, they dealt a guy they could have used for a project who didnt turn out. Just admit it, damn you're thick headed.[/quote']

 

Arroyo's peripherals declined across the board going from 2004 to 2005. Is this incorrect?

[jacksonianmarch]

2009 stats- 15-13, 220.1IP 214H 94ER 127K 65BB 3.84ERA 1.27WHIP.

 

If that line above is an ass-kicking, then you sir are an idiot. Please, keep digging, I love watching you flail.

[jacksonianmarch]

Arroyo's peripherals declined across the board going from 2004 to 2005. Is this incorrect?

 

A WHIP of 1.30 in the AL East is pretty f***ing good. It was worse than his prior season and his K's dropped, but the WHIP was impressive.

[Wasatch]

Brad Penny, what a joke. We had some hope, but....

[Dipre]

2009 stats- 15-13, 220.1IP 214H 94ER 127K 65BB 3.84ERA 1.27WHIP.

 

If that line above is an ass-kicking, then you sir are an idiot. Please, keep digging, I love watching you flail.

 

I actually meant 07-08, when he had WHIP's of 1.40 in back-to-back seasons. To say "A 1.30 WHIP in the AL East is pretty f***ing good" then watch the guy churn out two straight seasons of 1.40 WHIP in the vastly inferior NL and assume he could have had 4.50 ERA, 200 IP seasons in the AL East is retarded. Please keep digging (and making my arguments for me) i love watching you flail.

[a700hitter]

AL ERA was 0.06 higher than NL ERA in 2008 and 0.26 higher in 2009. Even taking into account this deviation, Arroyo would not suck in the AL. He is a very consistent reliable starter who takes the ball every 5th day.

[Dipre]

AL ERA was 0.06 higher than NL ERA in 2008 and 0.26 higher in 2009. Even taking into account this deviation' date=' Arroyo would not suck in the AL. He is a very consistent reliable starter who takes the ball every 5th day.[/quote']

 

Not with a 1.4 WHIP, he's not.

 

Honest question:

 

If he has his 07-08 seasons of 1.4 WHIP and adjust them to a league where you have no pitcher and a DH as well as generally better offenses, does he keep his ERA below 5?

 

Keep in mind the sheer amount of examples of pitchers who completely flop in the AL (Silva, Penny, Smoltz, Richard, among others) then go back to being respectable pitchers in the NL.

[Spudboy]

AL ERA was 0.06 higher than NL ERA in 2008 and 0.26 higher in 2009. Even taking into account this deviation' date=' Arroyo would not suck in the AL. He is a very consistent reliable starter who takes the ball every 5th day.[/quote']

 

STFU old man!

 

Let the kids play.

[Dipre]

a700 knows what he's talking about and makes significant contributions to baseball conversations, which is why his opinion is always well-received and the answers he receives well-thought out and backed up by stats.

[italstallianion]

Not with a 1.4 WHIP, he's not.

 

Honest question:

 

If he has his 07-08 seasons of 1.4 WHIP and adjust them to a league where you have no pitcher and a DH as well as generally better offenses, does he keep his ERA below 5?

 

Keep in mind the sheer amount of examples of pitchers who completely flop in the AL (Silva, Penny, Smoltz, Richard, among others) then go back to being respectable pitchers in the NL.

 

 

 

Did you factor in park factors? I mean Arroyo does pitch in a sandbox.

[a700hitter]

a700 knows what he's talking about and makes significant contributions to baseball conversations' date=' which is why his opinion is always well-received and the answers he receives well-thought out and backed up by stats.[/quote']A higher WHIP in the NL could be attributable to pitching around the 8th place hitter on average twice a game. For a 6 inning average pitcher, those additional 2 walks would raise his WHIP 0.33.

[Dipre]

Did you factor in park factors? I mean Arroyo does pitch in a sandbox.

 

Yup, ERA+ does that for us, which is the point Rhet wanted to make in the first place.

 

What really needs to be done is account for the differences in league offense and pitching between AL East and NL Central.

 

I shall get on it.

[Dipre]

A higher WHIP in the NL could be attributable to pitching around the 8th place hitter on average twice a game. For a 6 inning average pitcher' date=' those additional 2 walks would raise his WHIP 0.33.[/quote']

 

His BB/9 remained virtually the same as it had been in his prior years, 2.4 and 2.7.

 

What skyrocketed was his H/9, which was 9.9 in both seasons, even though he had a BABIP was around league average for both seasons.

 

So what happens when you adjust a 9.9 H/9 in the NL Central to the tougher, no auto-outs AL East lineups?

[jacksonianmarch]

Seriously. He is arguing that Arroyo wouldnt have helped his team and defending the trade. A joke. Seriously, a joke. He's got Theo's dick so far down his throat he's gagging constantly. Just another argument to start an argument for our resident sox apologist.

[Dipre]

Seriously. He is arguing that Arroyo wouldnt have helped his team and defending the trade. A joke. Seriously' date=' a joke. He's got Theo's dick so far down his throat he's gagging constantly. Just another argument to start an argument for our resident sox apologist.[/quote']

 

Are you retarded?

 

The first thing i said was "In retrospect, we got the short end of the stick" what i'm arguing is that Arroyo would have been around an average starter in the AL East, but you forgot to actually read because you were too busy finding ways to be a douchebag. It ended up being a s***** trade, and no one has said otherwise, but it wasn't a "fleecing of epic proportions" because Arroyo is not a marquee pitcher. Learn to read,

[a700hitter]

His BB/9 remained virtually the same as it had been in his prior years, 2.4 and 2.7.

 

What skyrocketed was his H/9, which was 9.9 in both seasons, even though he had a BABIP was around league average for both seasons.

 

So what happens when you adjust a 9.9 H/9 in the NL Central to the tougher, no auto-outs AL East lineups?

Would he only pitch against the AL East? The guy is solid, not great. He has been successful in both leagues. You have compared him to a bunch of injured old guys. The ERA differential between the two leagues is not that great. That's the key stat. Arroyo would be able to hold down a spot with about the same success in the AL. Have you seen the Orioles rotation or the White Sox. Arroyo could do just fine with them.

 

I find it interesting how so many members swallow their tongues when it is pointed out that the Wily Mo trade was just an awful mistake. The discussion becomes a debate over whether Arroyo sucks and if he could pitch in the AL East. It doesn't address the issue that the trade was a colossal failure. Wily Mo flopped completely. He doesn't even play in the majors anymore. Arroyo on the other hand has had a fair amount of success. This cannot be denied. Whether he could continue to be successful in Fenway is irrelevant. He has been successful elsewhere in the majors while Wily Mo flopped everywhere. The point is that it was a terribly bad trade. They should have gotten a lot more for Arroyo. People can argue the point all they want, but the Arroyo-Wily Mo trade goes on the negative side of the ledger for the FO.

[Dipre]

Would he only pitch against the AL East? The guy is solid' date=' not great. He has been successful in both leagues. You have compared him to a bunch of injured old guys. The ERA differential between the two leagues is not that great. That's the key stat. Arroyo would be able to hold down a spot with about the same success in the AL. Have you seen the Orioles rotation or the White Sox. Arroyo could do just fine with them.[/quote']

 

You haven't pointed out what is "holding down his own" because what i'm saying is he's about an average starter in the AL East, as in high 4's ERA, around 180 IP kind of guy, and that has value, but it's not a 4.50, 200 IP pitcher, which is what some are making it out to be.

 

Besides, the run differential when looking at the league is not so big, but he would have pitched the majority of his games against superior offenses than the ones he sees in the NL on a regular basis. That is fact.

 

I find it interesting how so many members swallow their tongues when it is pointed out that the Wily Mo trade was just an awful mistake. The discussion becomes a debate over whether Arroyo sucks and if he could pitch in the AL East. It doesn't address the issue that the trade was a colossal failure. Wily Mo flopped completely. He doesn't even play in the majors anymore. Arroyo on the other hand has had a fair amount of success. This cannot be denied. Whether he could continue to be successful in Fenway is irrelevant. He has been successful elsewhere in the majors while Wily Mo flopped everywhere. The point is that it was a terribly bad trade. They should have gotten a lot more for Arroyo. People can argue the point all they want, but the Arroyo-Wily Mo trade goes on the negative side of the ledger for the FO.

 

If you look back at the thread, no one has said we didn't get the short end of the stick in the trade, because WMPs probably in some disco drinking and dancing as we speak, but comparing Arroyo to Beckett in order to create the illusion that they are similar, and that the trade was such a massive mistake because we could have a guy similar to Beckett in Arroyo is stupid.

[a700hitter]

If you look back at the thread' date=' no one has said we didn't get the short end of the stick in the trade, because WMPs probably in some disco drinking and dancing as we speak, but comparing Arroyo to Beckett in order to create the illusion that they are similar, and that the trade was such a massive mistake because we could have a guy similar to Beckett in Arroyo is stupid.[/quote']Reliable starting pitching is at a premium in baseball. Arroyo is reliable and consistent. That is a valuable commodity. The Wily Mo trade was a colossal bungle move. Finally, I'll say this. While Arroyo is no Josh Beckett, he is closer in value to Josh Beckett than Wily Mo is to Arroyo. That's a fact, because Wily Mo is not even playing.

[Dipre]

Reliable starting pitching is at a premium in baseball. Arroyo is reliable and consistent. That is a valuable commodity. The Wily Mo trade was a colossal bungle move. Finally' date=' I'll say this. While Arroyo is no Josh Beckett, he is closer in value to Josh Beckett than Wily Mo is to Arroyo. That's a fact, because Wily Mo is not even playing.[/quote']

 

But how close? And how much would that value be diminished if he were pitching in the AL East instead of AAAA?

 

His numbers would be obviously worse in the AL, probably the reason they traded him away in the first place. Mentioning him in the same breath as Josh Beckett is jaw-dropping.